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| Binyamin Netanyahu demands 'red line' to stop Iran nuclear programme | Binyamin Netanyahu demands 'red line' to stop Iran nuclear programme |
| (4 months later) | |
| Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has called on the international community to set a "clear, red line" to stop Iran making a nuclear weapon, a line he claimed would be reached as early as next spring. | Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has called on the international community to set a "clear, red line" to stop Iran making a nuclear weapon, a line he claimed would be reached as early as next spring. |
| To illustrate those claims, Netanyahu presented the UN general assembly in New York with a diagram of a cartoon bomb, complete with a burning fuse, and used a red felt pen to mark a line near the top of the bomb beyond which he said Iran should not be allowed to pass. That line, representing 90% of the way to making a warhead, would be reached "by next spring, at most by next summer". | To illustrate those claims, Netanyahu presented the UN general assembly in New York with a diagram of a cartoon bomb, complete with a burning fuse, and used a red felt pen to mark a line near the top of the bomb beyond which he said Iran should not be allowed to pass. That line, representing 90% of the way to making a warhead, would be reached "by next spring, at most by next summer". |
| Netanyahu added: "From there, it's only a few months, possibly a few weeks, before they get enough enriched uranium for the first bomb." Consequently, the international community had to make it clear Iran would not be allowed to cross that critical threshold. | Netanyahu added: "From there, it's only a few months, possibly a few weeks, before they get enough enriched uranium for the first bomb." Consequently, the international community had to make it clear Iran would not be allowed to cross that critical threshold. |
| "Now each day that point is getting closer. And that's why I speak today with such a sense of urgency, and that's why everyone should have a sense of urgency," he said. "I believe that, faced with a clear red line, Iran will back down," the Israeli leader added, arguing that would give more time for sanctions and diplomacy to work towards the dismantling of the Iranian programme. | "Now each day that point is getting closer. And that's why I speak today with such a sense of urgency, and that's why everyone should have a sense of urgency," he said. "I believe that, faced with a clear red line, Iran will back down," the Israeli leader added, arguing that would give more time for sanctions and diplomacy to work towards the dismantling of the Iranian programme. |
| Iran insists that its nuclear programme is for entirely peaceful purposes, and US and other western intelligence agencies believe that the Tehran regime has not made the political decision to make a warhead. They estimate that the country's clerical leadership would like to have the option to make nuclear weapons, but have yet to take that option. | Iran insists that its nuclear programme is for entirely peaceful purposes, and US and other western intelligence agencies believe that the Tehran regime has not made the political decision to make a warhead. They estimate that the country's clerical leadership would like to have the option to make nuclear weapons, but have yet to take that option. |
| European officials were sceptical about Netanyahu's argument, comparing it to the infamous illustrated presentation about Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction made in 2003 by the then US secretary of state, Colin Powell. "It was like Powell and WMD, but much lower quality graphics," one European diplomat said. | European officials were sceptical about Netanyahu's argument, comparing it to the infamous illustrated presentation about Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction made in 2003 by the then US secretary of state, Colin Powell. "It was like Powell and WMD, but much lower quality graphics," one European diplomat said. |
| Netanyahu has tried for months, without success, to persuade the Obama administration to set red lines for Iran, but his speech to the UN marked the first time he had set out specific dates by which he expected those lines to be reached. Despite the urgent tone of the address, and after months of speculation that Israel was about to take imminent military action against Iran, the speech appeared to signal that it would wait until next year. | Netanyahu has tried for months, without success, to persuade the Obama administration to set red lines for Iran, but his speech to the UN marked the first time he had set out specific dates by which he expected those lines to be reached. Despite the urgent tone of the address, and after months of speculation that Israel was about to take imminent military action against Iran, the speech appeared to signal that it would wait until next year. |
| Obama administration officials are also likely to be relieved that Netanyahu did not publicly rebuke the president for his refusal to agree to the Israeli red lines. The Israeli prime minister even thanked Obama and the international community for imposing "some of the strongest sanctions to date" on Iran. The comparatively reconciliatory language, after months of sparring, may signal that Netanyahu is preparing for the prospect of a second Obama term. | Obama administration officials are also likely to be relieved that Netanyahu did not publicly rebuke the president for his refusal to agree to the Israeli red lines. The Israeli prime minister even thanked Obama and the international community for imposing "some of the strongest sanctions to date" on Iran. The comparatively reconciliatory language, after months of sparring, may signal that Netanyahu is preparing for the prospect of a second Obama term. |
| Netanyahu devoted almost all his UN address to the Iranian nuclear threat, and only a couple of minutes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some European and US officials have conceded that by his increasingly dire warnings about the Iranian programme, the Israeli leader may not have persuaded the US to take military action but he has succeeded in marginalising the plight of the Palestinians. | Netanyahu devoted almost all his UN address to the Iranian nuclear threat, and only a couple of minutes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some European and US officials have conceded that by his increasingly dire warnings about the Iranian programme, the Israeli leader may not have persuaded the US to take military action but he has succeeded in marginalising the plight of the Palestinians. |
| Barely an hour before Netanyahu took the lectern, the Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, had railed from the same spot against what he portrayed as Israel's impunity for its occupation and settlement building on Palestinian territory. | Barely an hour before Netanyahu took the lectern, the Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, had railed from the same spot against what he portrayed as Israel's impunity for its occupation and settlement building on Palestinian territory. |
| "Israel continues to be permitted to evade accountability and punishment," Abbas said. "This, in fact, represents a licence for the occupation to continue its policy of dispossession and ethnic cleansing and encourages it to entrench its system of apartheid against the Palestinian people." | "Israel continues to be permitted to evade accountability and punishment," Abbas said. "This, in fact, represents a licence for the occupation to continue its policy of dispossession and ethnic cleansing and encourages it to entrench its system of apartheid against the Palestinian people." |
| However, in a reflection of his lack of leverage in the international community in the current climate, he stopped short of seeking immediate observer status at the UN for a Palestinian state, saying only that he was in "intensive consultations" with regional organisations and member states to that end. | However, in a reflection of his lack of leverage in the international community in the current climate, he stopped short of seeking immediate observer status at the UN for a Palestinian state, saying only that he was in "intensive consultations" with regional organisations and member states to that end. |
| The Israeli-Palestinian impasse has taken centre stage at the UN for decades but this year, given the febrile atmosphere around Iran created by Netanyahu and the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, it was eclipsed by fears of a new conflict in the region. | The Israeli-Palestinian impasse has taken centre stage at the UN for decades but this year, given the febrile atmosphere around Iran created by Netanyahu and the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, it was eclipsed by fears of a new conflict in the region. |
| The Israel presentation provided a window into the government's thinking on the Iranian programme. | The Israel presentation provided a window into the government's thinking on the Iranian programme. |
| Netanyahu argued that it had completed the first phase in the bid to build a bomb, involving the production of several tons of low-enriched uranium. On his bomb diagram, that took Iran 70% of the way towards a nuclear weapon. | Netanyahu argued that it had completed the first phase in the bid to build a bomb, involving the production of several tons of low-enriched uranium. On his bomb diagram, that took Iran 70% of the way towards a nuclear weapon. |
| Phase two involved the production of what Netanyahu termed "medium-enriched" uranium, with a 20% level of purity. This is ostensibly for a medical research reactor, but it is a source of proliferation concern because it could relatively easily be further enriched to make weapons-grade fissile material. Iran has made about 190 kg of this 20% uranium, which would be just about enough if further enriched to make a single warhead. However, it has converted about a third of that stockpile into reactor fuel which is less of a proliferation risk. | Phase two involved the production of what Netanyahu termed "medium-enriched" uranium, with a 20% level of purity. This is ostensibly for a medical research reactor, but it is a source of proliferation concern because it could relatively easily be further enriched to make weapons-grade fissile material. Iran has made about 190 kg of this 20% uranium, which would be just about enough if further enriched to make a single warhead. However, it has converted about a third of that stockpile into reactor fuel which is less of a proliferation risk. |
| He argued that when Iran had completed this phase, it would be 90% of the way to a nuclear bomb, and this is where the red line should be drawn, but he did not make clear how much 20% enriched uranium that would entail. | He argued that when Iran had completed this phase, it would be 90% of the way to a nuclear bomb, and this is where the red line should be drawn, but he did not make clear how much 20% enriched uranium that would entail. |
| The final phase of the programme on his bomb chart would involve enrichment of the stockpile to weapons-grade uranium, over 90% purity, and that would take months or even weeks, he said. | The final phase of the programme on his bomb chart would involve enrichment of the stockpile to weapons-grade uranium, over 90% purity, and that would take months or even weeks, he said. |
| Western diplomats and nuclear experts pointed out that the Iranian uranium stockpile is monitored and under seal by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which would sound the alarm if Iran tried to "break out" and make weapons-grade uranium. | Western diplomats and nuclear experts pointed out that the Iranian uranium stockpile is monitored and under seal by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which would sound the alarm if Iran tried to "break out" and make weapons-grade uranium. |
| Mehr Javedanfar, an Iranian-Israeli commentator said: "The only way Iran could hide such a move would be by kicking out the IAEA inspectors. | Mehr Javedanfar, an Iranian-Israeli commentator said: "The only way Iran could hide such a move would be by kicking out the IAEA inspectors. |
| "This would alert the entire international community. Israel alongside everyone else would find out." | "This would alert the entire international community. Israel alongside everyone else would find out." |
| As President Obama has already said that when it comes to a nuclear-armed Iran, "containment is not an option, Javedanfar argued: "Netanyahu's red line is not so different to that of the US." | As President Obama has already said that when it comes to a nuclear-armed Iran, "containment is not an option, Javedanfar argued: "Netanyahu's red line is not so different to that of the US." |
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