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| Georgia Challenger Draws Strong Support, Exit Poll Shows | |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| KARALETI, Georgia — Exit polls in Georgia’s hotly contested parliamentary election on Monday suggested that a new party headed by the billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili had managed to edge out the party of Georgia’s larger-than-life president, Mikheil Saakashvili. | KARALETI, Georgia — Exit polls in Georgia’s hotly contested parliamentary election on Monday suggested that a new party headed by the billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili had managed to edge out the party of Georgia’s larger-than-life president, Mikheil Saakashvili. |
| A poll by Edison Research reported on Georgian television showed that Georgian Dream, Mr. Ivanishvili’s party, had probably won more than half of the popular vote. A second exit poll suggested that the parties were tied. It was a sobering result for Mr. Saakashvili and his ruling team, who took power in the peaceful Rose Revolution nine years ago. | |
| Even so, Mr. Saakashvili’s party may still retain a majority in the 150-seat Parliament, because about half of the seats are elected in individual races by district rather than by national proportional representation. Recent changes in the constitution will shift many of the president’s current powers to the parliament starting next year. | Even so, Mr. Saakashvili’s party may still retain a majority in the 150-seat Parliament, because about half of the seats are elected in individual races by district rather than by national proportional representation. Recent changes in the constitution will shift many of the president’s current powers to the parliament starting next year. |
| As president, Mr. Saakashvili has remade Georgia as a bastion of resistance to Russian influence and a laboratory for free-market economic policy. He faced no formidable challenge until last year, with the emergence of Mr. Ivanishvili, a reclusive philanthropist who has spent years spreading his Russian-earned billions around Georgia’s countryside. Mr. Ivanishvili has tapped into long-simmering grievances over poverty and the heavy-handed ruling style of Mr. Saakashvili and his team. | As president, Mr. Saakashvili has remade Georgia as a bastion of resistance to Russian influence and a laboratory for free-market economic policy. He faced no formidable challenge until last year, with the emergence of Mr. Ivanishvili, a reclusive philanthropist who has spent years spreading his Russian-earned billions around Georgia’s countryside. Mr. Ivanishvili has tapped into long-simmering grievances over poverty and the heavy-handed ruling style of Mr. Saakashvili and his team. |
| On Monday the country seemed to be heading for a reckoning, with each side expressing complete confidence that it would win. | On Monday the country seemed to be heading for a reckoning, with each side expressing complete confidence that it would win. |
| Georgia has a history of chaotic power struggles — the first and second post-Soviet presidents left office before the end of their terms to defuse deepening civil unrest — and Mr. Ivanishvili’s supporters have warned that they will take to the streets rather than accept vote counts that they consider fraudulent. | Georgia has a history of chaotic power struggles — the first and second post-Soviet presidents left office before the end of their terms to defuse deepening civil unrest — and Mr. Ivanishvili’s supporters have warned that they will take to the streets rather than accept vote counts that they consider fraudulent. |
| By midday, with voting still in progress, Mr. Ivanishvili had already declared victory, telling reporters that his party, Georgian Dream, will win “no less than two-thirds of seats in the Parliament.” | By midday, with voting still in progress, Mr. Ivanishvili had already declared victory, telling reporters that his party, Georgian Dream, will win “no less than two-thirds of seats in the Parliament.” |
| A visit to Karaleti, a settlement 50 miles north of the capital where hundreds of identical concrete houses hold families displaced by the 2008 war with Russia, revealed the tensions surrounding the election. The government has accused Mr. Ivanishvili of acting on behalf of the Kremlin, and many people in Karaleti believe it: When activists from his party visited over the summer, they were hounded out of town by residents waving sticks. | A visit to Karaleti, a settlement 50 miles north of the capital where hundreds of identical concrete houses hold families displaced by the 2008 war with Russia, revealed the tensions surrounding the election. The government has accused Mr. Ivanishvili of acting on behalf of the Kremlin, and many people in Karaleti believe it: When activists from his party visited over the summer, they were hounded out of town by residents waving sticks. |
| “People started to shout, ‘You are Russian, you are Russian,’ and they had no answer — even a small child knows they are on Russia’s side,” said Dato Chulkhadze, 38, who was lounging with other men on Monday opposite the village’s polling booth. Another neighbor, Pikria Gorilashvili, 49, credited Mr. Saakashvili with a list of improvements that have come to Georgia over the last decade, like a reliable electricity and gas supply and a sharp drop in crime. | “People started to shout, ‘You are Russian, you are Russian,’ and they had no answer — even a small child knows they are on Russia’s side,” said Dato Chulkhadze, 38, who was lounging with other men on Monday opposite the village’s polling booth. Another neighbor, Pikria Gorilashvili, 49, credited Mr. Saakashvili with a list of improvements that have come to Georgia over the last decade, like a reliable electricity and gas supply and a sharp drop in crime. |
| “We do not live as we lived in 1991,” she said. “And now we are going to Europe. We are becoming modern.” | “We do not live as we lived in 1991,” she said. “And now we are going to Europe. We are becoming modern.” |
| Still, several residents approached a reporter to say that there was more support for Mr. Ivanishvili in the town than there might seem at first, because people were afraid to publicly align themselves with the opposition. | Still, several residents approached a reporter to say that there was more support for Mr. Ivanishvili in the town than there might seem at first, because people were afraid to publicly align themselves with the opposition. |
| “We have a hope in Ivanishvili, that everything will be better and we will start developing,” said Koba Mchelidze, 47, whose family was driven out of the village of Kvemo Achabeti in the South Ossetia region in 2008. Asked how many of his neighbors agree, he said, “You will never know,” and added, “We are afraid someone is watching.” | “We have a hope in Ivanishvili, that everything will be better and we will start developing,” said Koba Mchelidze, 47, whose family was driven out of the village of Kvemo Achabeti in the South Ossetia region in 2008. Asked how many of his neighbors agree, he said, “You will never know,” and added, “We are afraid someone is watching.” |
| The voting on Monday is being conducted under close scrutiny, with 1,400 international observers and more than 50,000 Georgians deployed to voting stations, according to the Georgian government. By late afternoon, turnout was running above 53 percent, and the Central Election Commission had reported no major violations. | The voting on Monday is being conducted under close scrutiny, with 1,400 international observers and more than 50,000 Georgians deployed to voting stations, according to the Georgian government. By late afternoon, turnout was running above 53 percent, and the Central Election Commission had reported no major violations. |
| Volunteer observers in the capital, Tbilisi, said voters were on the alert for any signs of fraud. Some brought their own pen, to make sure they were not asked to use disappearing ink to mark ballots. | Volunteer observers in the capital, Tbilisi, said voters were on the alert for any signs of fraud. Some brought their own pen, to make sure they were not asked to use disappearing ink to mark ballots. |
| Tbilisi has long been a center of opposition to Mr. Saakashvili, and voters there were upbeat about the election on Monday. Anna Iobidze, 25, who works in advertising, said she could not think of anyone she knew who supported the president or his party. Asked whether she believed the election was being run fairly, she answered without a moment’s hesitation. | Tbilisi has long been a center of opposition to Mr. Saakashvili, and voters there were upbeat about the election on Monday. Anna Iobidze, 25, who works in advertising, said she could not think of anyone she knew who supported the president or his party. Asked whether she believed the election was being run fairly, she answered without a moment’s hesitation. |
| “We have such a bad political situation that there is no way it can be fair,” she said. | “We have such a bad political situation that there is no way it can be fair,” she said. |