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| Georgia Challenger Draws Strong Support, Exit Poll Shows | Georgia Challenger Draws Strong Support, Exit Poll Shows |
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| TBILISI, Georgia — Exit polls in Georgia’s hotly contested parliamentary race suggested on Monday that a party backed by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili has edged out the party headed by Georgia’s larger-than-life president, Mikheil Saakashvili. | TBILISI, Georgia — Exit polls in Georgia’s hotly contested parliamentary race suggested on Monday that a party backed by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili has edged out the party headed by Georgia’s larger-than-life president, Mikheil Saakashvili. |
| A poll by Edison Research shown on Georgian television indicated that Georgian Dream, Mr. Ivanishvili’s party, had probably won more than half of the popular vote. A second exit poll suggested that the parties were tied. It was a sobering verdict for Mr. Saakashvili and his ruling team, who took power in the peaceful Rose Revolution nine years ago. | |
| The shift will have a practical effect since next year Georgia’s parliament will take on many powers that now rest with the president, according to recent changes to the Constitution. | The shift will have a practical effect since next year Georgia’s parliament will take on many powers that now rest with the president, according to recent changes to the Constitution. |
| In his years in office, Mr. Saakashvili has restyled Georgia as a bastion of resistance to Russian influence and a laboratory for free-market economic policy. | In his years in office, Mr. Saakashvili has restyled Georgia as a bastion of resistance to Russian influence and a laboratory for free-market economic policy. |
| He faced no formidable challenges until the emergence last year of Bidzina Ivanishvili, a reclusive philanthropist who has spent years spreading his Russian-earned billions around Georgia’s countryside. Mr. Ivanishvili has tapped into long-simmering grievances over poverty and the heavy-handed ruling style of Mr. Saakashvili and his team. | He faced no formidable challenges until the emergence last year of Bidzina Ivanishvili, a reclusive philanthropist who has spent years spreading his Russian-earned billions around Georgia’s countryside. Mr. Ivanishvili has tapped into long-simmering grievances over poverty and the heavy-handed ruling style of Mr. Saakashvili and his team. |
| After the exit polls were released, cars flying Georgian Dream flags screamed down Tbilisi’s central artery and thousands gathered inFfreedom Square. Temur Butikashvili, 52, a filmmaker, said it marked the first time Georgia had changed its leadership through an election. | After the exit polls were released, cars flying Georgian Dream flags screamed down Tbilisi’s central artery and thousands gathered inFfreedom Square. Temur Butikashvili, 52, a filmmaker, said it marked the first time Georgia had changed its leadership through an election. |
| “We have done what all our ancestors aspired to. We have calmly, quietly transferred power,” Mr. Butikashvili said. | “We have done what all our ancestors aspired to. We have calmly, quietly transferred power,” Mr. Butikashvili said. |
| Of Mr. Saakashvili, he said, “we had great hopes when he came in — he studied in America, we thought he had an American mentality — but he turned from a democrat into an autocrat. He turned into an authoritarian.” | Of Mr. Saakashvili, he said, “we had great hopes when he came in — he studied in America, we thought he had an American mentality — but he turned from a democrat into an autocrat. He turned into an authoritarian.” |
| With Monday’s election, many felt the country was headed for a reckoning. Georgia has a history of chaotic power struggles — the first and second post-Soviet presidents left office before the end of their terms to avoid deepening civil unrest — and Mr. Ivanishvili’s supporters have warned that they will take to the streets rather than accept vote counts that they consider fraudulent. | With Monday’s election, many felt the country was headed for a reckoning. Georgia has a history of chaotic power struggles — the first and second post-Soviet presidents left office before the end of their terms to avoid deepening civil unrest — and Mr. Ivanishvili’s supporters have warned that they will take to the streets rather than accept vote counts that they consider fraudulent. |
| Both sides had grounds to declare victory, but big questions loom ahead. The campaign has been marked by venomous attacks, and it is hard to imagine the two leaders collaborating for the year that remains of Mr. Saakashvili’s presidency. | Both sides had grounds to declare victory, but big questions loom ahead. The campaign has been marked by venomous attacks, and it is hard to imagine the two leaders collaborating for the year that remains of Mr. Saakashvili’s presidency. |
| The breakdown of Parliamentary seats could also prove a sticking point. Mr. Saakashvili’s governing party may still command more than half of the 150 seats in parliament, since under Georgia’s complex rules, 73 are single-mandate, meaning they go to individual candidates who receive the most votes. Under the new system going into effect next year, a party with 76 or more seats will have a chance to elect a prime minister. | The breakdown of Parliamentary seats could also prove a sticking point. Mr. Saakashvili’s governing party may still command more than half of the 150 seats in parliament, since under Georgia’s complex rules, 73 are single-mandate, meaning they go to individual candidates who receive the most votes. Under the new system going into effect next year, a party with 76 or more seats will have a chance to elect a prime minister. |
| But the final results will not be in until later this month, and the outcome remains in doubt. Early Tuesday, Mr. Ivanishvili declared that according to his exit polls, his party had won 100 seats. But a leader of the governing party, David Darchiashvili, said his side had at least two-thirds, adding that “I am confident this majority will be enough to elect our own prime minister.” | But the final results will not be in until later this month, and the outcome remains in doubt. Early Tuesday, Mr. Ivanishvili declared that according to his exit polls, his party had won 100 seats. But a leader of the governing party, David Darchiashvili, said his side had at least two-thirds, adding that “I am confident this majority will be enough to elect our own prime minister.” |
| “It doesn’t mean that we are dividing the country into Tbilisi and provinces,” he said. “We are all Georgians, we are all citizens of our country. We should all stand together and we should all manage to work together in frames of existing democracy.” | “It doesn’t mean that we are dividing the country into Tbilisi and provinces,” he said. “We are all Georgians, we are all citizens of our country. We should all stand together and we should all manage to work together in frames of existing democracy.” |
| One of the key differences between Mr. Ivanishvili and Mr. Saakashvili is on Russia; Mr. Ivanishvili has criticized the president for his open hostility toward Russia, and suggested that if he takes power, he will take a more conciliatory line, and Russian markets will reopen to Georgian produce, wine and mineral water, providing an economic lift. Meanwhile, Mr. Saakashvili has accused his opponent being a front for the Kremlin. | One of the key differences between Mr. Ivanishvili and Mr. Saakashvili is on Russia; Mr. Ivanishvili has criticized the president for his open hostility toward Russia, and suggested that if he takes power, he will take a more conciliatory line, and Russian markets will reopen to Georgian produce, wine and mineral water, providing an economic lift. Meanwhile, Mr. Saakashvili has accused his opponent being a front for the Kremlin. |
| There was palpable tension on Monday in the village of Karaleti, where identical concrete houses hold hundreds of families displaced from South Ossetia by the 2008 war with Russia. | There was palpable tension on Monday in the village of Karaleti, where identical concrete houses hold hundreds of families displaced from South Ossetia by the 2008 war with Russia. |
| When activists from Mr. Ivanishvili’s party visited over the summer, they were hounded out of town by residents waving sticks. Dato Chulkhadze, 38, lounged with a group of brawny men in t-shirts opposite Karaleti’s polling station on Monday, recalling the episode with satisfaction, | When activists from Mr. Ivanishvili’s party visited over the summer, they were hounded out of town by residents waving sticks. Dato Chulkhadze, 38, lounged with a group of brawny men in t-shirts opposite Karaleti’s polling station on Monday, recalling the episode with satisfaction, |
| “People started to shout, ‘You are Russian, you are Russian,’ and they had no answer — even a small child knows they are on Russia’s side,” said Dato Chulkhadze, 38. Asked about Mr. Ivanishivili’s changes, he said, “I pray to God nothing like this will happen. If it happens, the Russians will return.” | “People started to shout, ‘You are Russian, you are Russian,’ and they had no answer — even a small child knows they are on Russia’s side,” said Dato Chulkhadze, 38. Asked about Mr. Ivanishivili’s changes, he said, “I pray to God nothing like this will happen. If it happens, the Russians will return.” |
| But several residents approached a reporter quietly to say that support for Mr. Ivanishivili was higher than it appeared, except people are afraid to say so publicly. One woman, who would not give her name, said she was voting for Mr. Ivanishvili because “we should not be afraid when we talk.” | But several residents approached a reporter quietly to say that support for Mr. Ivanishivili was higher than it appeared, except people are afraid to say so publicly. One woman, who would not give her name, said she was voting for Mr. Ivanishvili because “we should not be afraid when we talk.” |
| “We have a hope in Ivanishvili, that everything will better and we will start developing,” said Koba Mchelidze, 47, whose family was driven out of the South Ossetian village of Kvemo Achabeti in 2008. Asked how many of his neighbors agree, he said, “you will never know.” | “We have a hope in Ivanishvili, that everything will better and we will start developing,” said Koba Mchelidze, 47, whose family was driven out of the South Ossetian village of Kvemo Achabeti in 2008. Asked how many of his neighbors agree, he said, “you will never know.” |
| “We are afraid someone is watching,” he said. | “We are afraid someone is watching,” he said. |
| The vote is under extreme scrutiny, and many are waiting for Tuesday’s assessments from 1,400 international observers who fanned out across the country. In the opposition stronghold of Tbilisi, some voters were so alert for fraud that they brought their own pens, to make sure they were not given invisible ink. Lawrence Sheets, a South Caucasus specialist with the International Crisis Group, said he was tired but relieved that Monday had passed in relative calm. | The vote is under extreme scrutiny, and many are waiting for Tuesday’s assessments from 1,400 international observers who fanned out across the country. In the opposition stronghold of Tbilisi, some voters were so alert for fraud that they brought their own pens, to make sure they were not given invisible ink. Lawrence Sheets, a South Caucasus specialist with the International Crisis Group, said he was tired but relieved that Monday had passed in relative calm. |
| “Everyone’s been very tired — it’s been a year of this rhetoric and poisonous stuff — but in the end if it doesn’t end in something really unstable, which we feared, it’s a positive step for the country,” he said. “What other post-Soviet country has had this kind of process?” | “Everyone’s been very tired — it’s been a year of this rhetoric and poisonous stuff — but in the end if it doesn’t end in something really unstable, which we feared, it’s a positive step for the country,” he said. “What other post-Soviet country has had this kind of process?” |
Olesya Vartanyan contributed reporting. | Olesya Vartanyan contributed reporting. |