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Voter registration slumps amid lack of enthusiasm for Obama and Romney Democrats struggle to repeat 2008 voter surge despite registration push
(1 day later)
The Democratic and Republican parties are struggling to engage new voters in this year's presidential race, with an apparent deficit of enthusiasm suppressing the number of people who have registered to vote ahead of the 6 November election. This is a corrected version of an article published on 2 October 2012.
A Guardian survey of six of the most crucial swing states upon which the outcome of the presidential ballot is likely to depend has found that new voter registrations recorded between January and August this year are markedly down compared with the same period in 2008. The drop is particularly pronounced in several states for the Democrats – a likely indication that Barack Obama's re-election team has been unable to match the exceptional levels of voter excitement generated by his candidacy four years ago.
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/>The number of registered voters in six crucial swing states has failed to rise this year at the same dramatic rate as it did in 2008, despite enormous efforts by both main parties to attract new voters, a Guardian survey has found.
The six states included in the Guardian survey – Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia – are all being bitterly fought over by Obama and his challenger Mitt Romney. Backed by their respective Democratic and Republican parties, both candidates have sought to maximise turnout by running registration drives in an attempt to attract new voters to their cause. Data obtained from the secretary of state's offices in Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia suggest that voter rolls – the count of people eligible to vote – expanded at a far faster pace in 2008 than they have this year. The contrast is particularly pronounced among registered voters identifying themselves as Democratic.
The Republicans this year have also pursued an aggressive policy of challenging voter rolls in an attempt to wheedle out what they claim are fraudulent names. The Democratic party and voter rights organisations have accused the Republicans of acting maliciously in an attempt to suppress the number of black, poor, elderly and young people registering to vote. In Florida, for example, the total number of registered voters grew by 224,750 between January and July this year – markedly fewer than the increase of 307,388 recorded during the same period in 2008. Four years ago, the Democratic roll in Florida expanded by a thumping 196,490, yet in the same seven months this year it grew by just 54,394.
The biggest decline among registered voters within the surveyed swing states was in Florida. Between January and July this year, the state added 224,750 voters – 82,638 fewer than the same period in 2008. A similar comparison of the first seven months of 2012 and 2008 shows a dip in voter registrations of 25,486 in Iowa, 23,009 in Virginia, 19,199 in Nevada and 9,566 in Colorado. The Florida Republican party has held relatively steady in the state with its voter count increasing by 56,154 to July this year – almost identical to the 54,394 recorded in 2008.
The declines look particularly dramatic on the Democratic side, largely as a reflection of how well the Obama campaign did in mobilising new voters in its first run on the presidency in 2008. This year it has clearly struggled to repeat the performance. The Obama campaign has undertaken a massive voter registration drive this election cycle in the battleground states where the race is tightest, Florida included. Local papers in the state have reported that the president's re-election team has delivered 220,000 new registered voters during the 13 months to September.
In Iowa, Democrats registered 69,301 voters between January and August 2008, but over the same period this year the party's voter roll dropped by more than 45,000 as a result of the voting rolls being purged. Republicans in Iowa by contrast held relatively steady – they put on 7,515 voters in the first eight months of 2008 and 5,671 this year. The source of the disparity between the Obama campaign's figures and the official tally of registered Democratic voters surveyed by the Guardian remains unclear. At the same time as new names are added to the voter rolls, old names may be removed, following deaths, relocations or other events.
If previous elections are any indication, however, swing states will see a bump in voter registrations in the final two months before the election. In 2008, Iowa registered 3,232 more Democratic voters in September and 7,076 in October. A spike was also felt in Nevada, where Democrats registered 32,729 voters in September and 26,550 voters in October. The six states in the Guardian survey are all being bitterly fought over by Obama and his challenger Mitt Romney. Backed by their respective Democratic and Republican parties, both candidates have sought to maximise turnout by running registration drives in an attempt to attract new voters to their cause.
In 2008, Obama's Florida registration efforts played a crucial role in securing him the state, and with it the presidency. That year, the Democrats registered a thumping 196,490 voters while Republicans signed up just 54,394. In spite of such efforts, the total sizes of the electorate in the swing states surveyed by the Guardian have not increased by anything like the extent they did four years ago. In Iowa, the electoral roll grew by 27,239 in the eight months to August 2008, but by only 1,753 in the same period this year. A similar pattern is recorded in Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia.
Yet in 2012, Democrats have only mustered about a quarter of their huge successes last time round: 50,909 voters. Republicans have also held steady in this state with 56,154 new registrants this year compared to 54,394 in 2008. Again, the contrast looks particularly stark in Iowa on the Democratic side. The party's count of registered voters increased by 69,301 between January and August 2008, but over the same period this year the party's voter roll actually dropped by more than 45,000.
Voting rights experts in Florida blame the overall slump in registrations this year – with 82,638 fewer voters being registered between January and July than in the same period in 2008 – on a spate of aggressive legislation coming out of the Republican-controlled state assembly. The laws, which included threats of criminal prosecution for volunteers should they not follow the rules by the letter, had such a chilling effect that many non-partisan organisations suspended their voter registration operations entirely. Republicans in Iowa by contrast held relatively steady – their voter count grew by 7,515 in the first eight months of 2008 and 5,671 in a similar period this year.
If previous elections are any indication, however, swing states will see a bump in voter registrations in the final two months before the election. In 2008, the number of registered Democratic voters in Iowa increased by 3,232 in September and 7,076 in October. A spike was also felt in Nevada, where the Democratic roll grew by 32,729 in September and 26,550 in October.
Voting rights experts in Florida blamed the relatively slow growth in voter rolls this year on a spate of aggressive legislation coming out of the Republican-controlled state assembly. The laws, which included threats of criminal prosecution for volunteers should they not follow the rules by the letter, had such a chilling effect that several non-partisan organisations suspended their voter registration operations entirely.
The League of Women Voters of Florida stopped registration drives for more than a year, until the courts intervened and overturned the new laws on the grounds that they were unconstitutional. The league's president, Deirdre Macnab, said that the Guardian's figures confirmed the pernicious impact of voter suppression laws in the state.The League of Women Voters of Florida stopped registration drives for more than a year, until the courts intervened and overturned the new laws on the grounds that they were unconstitutional. The league's president, Deirdre Macnab, said that the Guardian's figures confirmed the pernicious impact of voter suppression laws in the state.
"The voter suppression laws have served to inhibit and repress crucial voices that need to be heard in our elections. They were playing politics with our voting rights," she said."The voter suppression laws have served to inhibit and repress crucial voices that need to be heard in our elections. They were playing politics with our voting rights," she said.
Macnab added that the suspension of voter registration drives had a particularly adverse impact on communities that traditionally suffer from low election turnout such as poor people, ethnic minority voters, students, older and disabled people. All those groups tend to lean towards the Democratic party, helping to explain the fact that registration is sharply down for Democratic voters this year while Republican figures have remained stable. Macnab added that the suspension of voter registration drives had a particularly adverse impact on communities that traditionally suffer from low election turnout such as poor people, ethnic minority voters, students, older and disabled people. All those groups tend to lean towards the Democratic party.
In Ohio, voter rights activists are reporting low levels of political enthusiasm. This classically politically divided state, which Obama won in 2008 with just 51.5% of the vote, is showing a clear drop in the number of new registered voters. In Ohio, a classically politically divided state which Obama won in 2008 with just 51.5% of the vote, voter rights activists are reporting low levels of political enthusiasm.
The manner in which Ohio tabulates its data makes it difficult to compare with other states. Whereas most states compile an aggregate of registered voters, Ohio only counts how many new voters register every month. That said, the trend stands when comparing new registration numbers month to month. In July and August 2008 Ohio registered 76,227 and 81,479 voters respectively. In 2012 during the same months voter rolls were 51,964 and 78,681. Sean Sukys, a volunteer with Rock The Vote in Ohio, which encourages young people to participate in the democratic process, said he had been taken aback by how many people said they didn't care about the election this year.
Sean Sukys, a volunteer with Rock The Vote in Ohio, which encourages young people to participate in the democratic process, said he had been taken aback by how many people said they didn't care about the election this year. "It's surprising to me that they'd say they didn't care about the future of the country – but then America is not the most educated population so maybe it's only to be expected." "It's surprising to me that they'd say they didn't care about the future of the country – but then America is not the most educated population so maybe it's only to be expected," he said.
While the decrease in registrations may have something to do with the tone of the election itself, the Lawyers' Committee's manager for legal mobilization Eric Marshall cited voting restrictions as an undeniable contributor. "Our voter registration system is stuck in the 19th century. Unfortunately, the discourse in our democracy right now is more focused on policies that make it hard for certain people to vote," he said. While the decrease in registrations may have something to do with the tone of the election itself, Eric Marshall, manager for legal mobilization for the Lawyers' Committee, cited voting restrictions as an undeniable contributor.
"Our voter registration system is stuck in the 19th century. Unfortunately, the discourse in our democracy right now is more focused on policies that make it hard for certain people to vote," he said.
• The original version of this article inaccurately characterised the statistics as referring to new voter registrations.
It stated that the number of new voter registrations recorded in the early part of 2012 was markedly down compared with the same period during the last presidential race in 2008.
In fact, the figures relate to the fluctuations in the total number of people on the voter rolls in the relevant states, as counted by each secretary of state's office responsible for supervising the election. Those voter rolls incorporate the number of new voters registered in any given month, but voters may also leave the rolls through deaths, relocations and other factors.
It was incorrect to equate the changes in the voter rolls directly and exclusively to voter registration efforts.
The figures do show that the total number of people registered on voter rolls in the six swing states has increased more slowly between January and July this year compared to the same period in 2008.