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| Democrats struggle to repeat 2008 voter surge despite registration push | Democrats struggle to repeat 2008 voter surge despite registration push |
| (30 days later) | |
| This is a corrected version of an article published on 2 October 2012. | This is a corrected version of an article published on 2 October 2012. |
The number of registered voters in six crucial swing states has failed to rise this year at the same dramatic rate as it did in 2008, despite enormous efforts by both main parties to attract new voters, a Guardian survey has found. | The number of registered voters in six crucial swing states has failed to rise this year at the same dramatic rate as it did in 2008, despite enormous efforts by both main parties to attract new voters, a Guardian survey has found. |
| Data obtained from the secretary of state's offices in Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia suggest that voter rolls – the count of people eligible to vote – expanded at a far faster pace in 2008 than they have this year. The contrast is particularly pronounced among registered voters identifying themselves as Democratic. | Data obtained from the secretary of state's offices in Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia suggest that voter rolls – the count of people eligible to vote – expanded at a far faster pace in 2008 than they have this year. The contrast is particularly pronounced among registered voters identifying themselves as Democratic. |
| In Florida, for example, the total number of registered voters grew by 224,750 between January and July this year – markedly fewer than the increase of 307,388 recorded during the same period in 2008. Four years ago, the Democratic roll in Florida expanded by a thumping 196,490, yet in the same seven months this year it grew by just 54,394. | In Florida, for example, the total number of registered voters grew by 224,750 between January and July this year – markedly fewer than the increase of 307,388 recorded during the same period in 2008. Four years ago, the Democratic roll in Florida expanded by a thumping 196,490, yet in the same seven months this year it grew by just 54,394. |
| The Florida Republican party has held relatively steady in the state with its voter count increasing by 56,154 to July this year – almost identical to the 54,394 recorded in 2008. | The Florida Republican party has held relatively steady in the state with its voter count increasing by 56,154 to July this year – almost identical to the 54,394 recorded in 2008. |
| The Obama campaign has undertaken a massive voter registration drive this election cycle in the battleground states where the race is tightest, Florida included. Local papers in the state have reported that the president's re-election team has delivered 220,000 new registered voters during the 13 months to September. | The Obama campaign has undertaken a massive voter registration drive this election cycle in the battleground states where the race is tightest, Florida included. Local papers in the state have reported that the president's re-election team has delivered 220,000 new registered voters during the 13 months to September. |
| The source of the disparity between the Obama campaign's figures and the official tally of registered Democratic voters surveyed by the Guardian remains unclear. At the same time as new names are added to the voter rolls, old names may be removed, following deaths, relocations or other events. | The source of the disparity between the Obama campaign's figures and the official tally of registered Democratic voters surveyed by the Guardian remains unclear. At the same time as new names are added to the voter rolls, old names may be removed, following deaths, relocations or other events. |
| The six states in the Guardian survey are all being bitterly fought over by Obama and his challenger Mitt Romney. Backed by their respective Democratic and Republican parties, both candidates have sought to maximise turnout by running registration drives in an attempt to attract new voters to their cause. | The six states in the Guardian survey are all being bitterly fought over by Obama and his challenger Mitt Romney. Backed by their respective Democratic and Republican parties, both candidates have sought to maximise turnout by running registration drives in an attempt to attract new voters to their cause. |
| In spite of such efforts, the total sizes of the electorate in the swing states surveyed by the Guardian have not increased by anything like the extent they did four years ago. In Iowa, the electoral roll grew by 27,239 in the eight months to August 2008, but by only 1,753 in the same period this year. A similar pattern is recorded in Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. | In spite of such efforts, the total sizes of the electorate in the swing states surveyed by the Guardian have not increased by anything like the extent they did four years ago. In Iowa, the electoral roll grew by 27,239 in the eight months to August 2008, but by only 1,753 in the same period this year. A similar pattern is recorded in Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. |
| Again, the contrast looks particularly stark in Iowa on the Democratic side. The party's count of registered voters increased by 69,301 between January and August 2008, but over the same period this year the party's voter roll actually dropped by more than 45,000. | Again, the contrast looks particularly stark in Iowa on the Democratic side. The party's count of registered voters increased by 69,301 between January and August 2008, but over the same period this year the party's voter roll actually dropped by more than 45,000. |
| Republicans in Iowa by contrast held relatively steady – their voter count grew by 7,515 in the first eight months of 2008 and 5,671 in a similar period this year. | Republicans in Iowa by contrast held relatively steady – their voter count grew by 7,515 in the first eight months of 2008 and 5,671 in a similar period this year. |
| If previous elections are any indication, however, swing states will see a bump in voter registrations in the final two months before the election. In 2008, the number of registered Democratic voters in Iowa increased by 3,232 in September and 7,076 in October. A spike was also felt in Nevada, where the Democratic roll grew by 32,729 in September and 26,550 in October. | If previous elections are any indication, however, swing states will see a bump in voter registrations in the final two months before the election. In 2008, the number of registered Democratic voters in Iowa increased by 3,232 in September and 7,076 in October. A spike was also felt in Nevada, where the Democratic roll grew by 32,729 in September and 26,550 in October. |
| Voting rights experts in Florida blamed the relatively slow growth in voter rolls this year on a spate of aggressive legislation coming out of the Republican-controlled state assembly. The laws, which included threats of criminal prosecution for volunteers should they not follow the rules by the letter, had such a chilling effect that several non-partisan organisations suspended their voter registration operations entirely. | Voting rights experts in Florida blamed the relatively slow growth in voter rolls this year on a spate of aggressive legislation coming out of the Republican-controlled state assembly. The laws, which included threats of criminal prosecution for volunteers should they not follow the rules by the letter, had such a chilling effect that several non-partisan organisations suspended their voter registration operations entirely. |
| The League of Women Voters of Florida stopped registration drives for more than a year, until the courts intervened and overturned the new laws on the grounds that they were unconstitutional. The league's president, Deirdre Macnab, said that the Guardian's figures confirmed the pernicious impact of voter suppression laws in the state. | The League of Women Voters of Florida stopped registration drives for more than a year, until the courts intervened and overturned the new laws on the grounds that they were unconstitutional. The league's president, Deirdre Macnab, said that the Guardian's figures confirmed the pernicious impact of voter suppression laws in the state. |
| "The voter suppression laws have served to inhibit and repress crucial voices that need to be heard in our elections. They were playing politics with our voting rights," she said. | "The voter suppression laws have served to inhibit and repress crucial voices that need to be heard in our elections. They were playing politics with our voting rights," she said. |
| Macnab added that the suspension of voter registration drives had a particularly adverse impact on communities that traditionally suffer from low election turnout such as poor people, ethnic minority voters, students, older and disabled people. All those groups tend to lean towards the Democratic party. | Macnab added that the suspension of voter registration drives had a particularly adverse impact on communities that traditionally suffer from low election turnout such as poor people, ethnic minority voters, students, older and disabled people. All those groups tend to lean towards the Democratic party. |
| In Ohio, a classically politically divided state which Obama won in 2008 with just 51.5% of the vote, voter rights activists are reporting low levels of political enthusiasm. | In Ohio, a classically politically divided state which Obama won in 2008 with just 51.5% of the vote, voter rights activists are reporting low levels of political enthusiasm. |
| Sean Sukys, a volunteer with Rock The Vote in Ohio, which encourages young people to participate in the democratic process, said he had been taken aback by how many people said they didn't care about the election this year. | Sean Sukys, a volunteer with Rock The Vote in Ohio, which encourages young people to participate in the democratic process, said he had been taken aback by how many people said they didn't care about the election this year. |
| "It's surprising to me that they'd say they didn't care about the future of the country – but then America is not the most educated population so maybe it's only to be expected," he said. | "It's surprising to me that they'd say they didn't care about the future of the country – but then America is not the most educated population so maybe it's only to be expected," he said. |
| While the decrease in registrations may have something to do with the tone of the election itself, Eric Marshall, manager for legal mobilization for the Lawyers' Committee, cited voting restrictions as an undeniable contributor. | While the decrease in registrations may have something to do with the tone of the election itself, Eric Marshall, manager for legal mobilization for the Lawyers' Committee, cited voting restrictions as an undeniable contributor. |
| "Our voter registration system is stuck in the 19th century. Unfortunately, the discourse in our democracy right now is more focused on policies that make it hard for certain people to vote," he said. | "Our voter registration system is stuck in the 19th century. Unfortunately, the discourse in our democracy right now is more focused on policies that make it hard for certain people to vote," he said. |
| • The original version of this article inaccurately characterised the statistics as referring to new voter registrations. | • The original version of this article inaccurately characterised the statistics as referring to new voter registrations. |
| It stated that the number of new voter registrations recorded in the early part of 2012 was markedly down compared with the same period during the last presidential race in 2008. | It stated that the number of new voter registrations recorded in the early part of 2012 was markedly down compared with the same period during the last presidential race in 2008. |
| In fact, the figures relate to the fluctuations in the total number of people on the voter rolls in the relevant states, as counted by each secretary of state's office responsible for supervising the election. Those voter rolls incorporate the number of new voters registered in any given month, but voters may also leave the rolls through deaths, relocations and other factors. | In fact, the figures relate to the fluctuations in the total number of people on the voter rolls in the relevant states, as counted by each secretary of state's office responsible for supervising the election. Those voter rolls incorporate the number of new voters registered in any given month, but voters may also leave the rolls through deaths, relocations and other factors. |
| It was incorrect to equate the changes in the voter rolls directly and exclusively to voter registration efforts. | It was incorrect to equate the changes in the voter rolls directly and exclusively to voter registration efforts. |
| The figures do show that the total number of people registered on voter rolls in the six swing states has increased more slowly between January and July this year compared to the same period in 2008. | The figures do show that the total number of people registered on voter rolls in the six swing states has increased more slowly between January and July this year compared to the same period in 2008. |
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