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| In Seoul, Kerry Warns North Korea Against Missile Test | In Seoul, Kerry Warns North Korea Against Missile Test |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| SEOUL, South Korea — Secretary of State John Kerry warned North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, on Friday not to proceed with a test launching of its Musudan missile and underscored that his nation would be defeated if a conflict broke out. | |
| The missile has a range of up to 2,500 miles, according to American officials, which means it has the potential to strike targets in South Korea, all of Japan and even Guam. South Korean officials said earlier this week that North Korea had made preparations to test the missile, and an American official told reporters on Friday that a launching could come at any time. | |
| There has been speculation that Mr. Kim will order the launching to commemorate the anniversary on Monday of the birth of Kim Il-sung, his grandfather and the founder of North Korea, or that it might be fired while Mr. Kerry is in the region. | |
| “If Kim Jong-un decides to launch a missile, whether it is across the Sea of Japan or some other direction, he will be choosing willfully to ignore the entire international community,” Mr. Kerry said at a news conference after meeting with President Park Geun-hye and Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se of South Korea. | “If Kim Jong-un decides to launch a missile, whether it is across the Sea of Japan or some other direction, he will be choosing willfully to ignore the entire international community,” Mr. Kerry said at a news conference after meeting with President Park Geun-hye and Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se of South Korea. |
| “It’s not going to change our current position, which is very, very clear: we will defend our allies,” Mr. Kerry added. | “It’s not going to change our current position, which is very, very clear: we will defend our allies,” Mr. Kerry added. |
| American officials have not detected efforts by the North Koreans to mobilize forces or make serious war preparations. And Mr. Kerry said the greatest risk would be a conflict that arose out of a series of provocations and miscalculations by North Korea, not a deliberate attack. Still, he underscored the risks. | American officials have not detected efforts by the North Koreans to mobilize forces or make serious war preparations. And Mr. Kerry said the greatest risk would be a conflict that arose out of a series of provocations and miscalculations by North Korea, not a deliberate attack. Still, he underscored the risks. |
| “Kim Jong-un needs to understand, as I think he probably does, what the outcome of the conflict would be,” Mr. Kerry said in a pointed reference to the United States and South Korean military capabilities. | “Kim Jong-un needs to understand, as I think he probably does, what the outcome of the conflict would be,” Mr. Kerry said in a pointed reference to the United States and South Korean military capabilities. |
| With tensions running high on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Kerry arrived in Seoul, the South Korean capital, on Friday in an effort to reassure American allies in the region that the United States remained committed to their defense. It is his first visit to South Korea. | |
| Besides stops in South Korea and Japan, Mr. Kerry will also visit China to urge officials there to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program. | Besides stops in South Korea and Japan, Mr. Kerry will also visit China to urge officials there to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program. |
| Reiterating the longstanding American position, Mr. Kerry said the United States would never accept North Korea as a nuclear state. Talks involving the United States and North Korea, he said, could take place only if Mr. Kim agreed to move to denuclearization. | Reiterating the longstanding American position, Mr. Kerry said the United States would never accept North Korea as a nuclear state. Talks involving the United States and North Korea, he said, could take place only if Mr. Kim agreed to move to denuclearization. |
| “They simply have to be prepared to live up to their international obligations and standards, which they have accepted, and make it clear they will move to denuclearization as part of the talks and those talks can begin,” Mr. Kerry said. “But they have to be really serious.” | “They simply have to be prepared to live up to their international obligations and standards, which they have accepted, and make it clear they will move to denuclearization as part of the talks and those talks can begin,” Mr. Kerry said. “But they have to be really serious.” |
| At the same time, Mr. Kerry applauded efforts by the South, which has called for dialogue with North Korea. | At the same time, Mr. Kerry applauded efforts by the South, which has called for dialogue with North Korea. |
| The disclosure on Thursday that the Defense Intelligence Agency had concluded with “moderate confidence” that North Korea was capable of launching a missile with a nuclear warhead, albeit an unreliable one, was the subject of much attention here. | The disclosure on Thursday that the Defense Intelligence Agency had concluded with “moderate confidence” that North Korea was capable of launching a missile with a nuclear warhead, albeit an unreliable one, was the subject of much attention here. |
| An American official who briefed reporters here and who is familiar with North Korea's military capabilities asserted that was “premature” to conclude that it had mastered the challenges of miniaturizing a nuclear warhead and connecting it to a multistage missile. | An American official who briefed reporters here and who is familiar with North Korea's military capabilities asserted that was “premature” to conclude that it had mastered the challenges of miniaturizing a nuclear warhead and connecting it to a multistage missile. |
| Mr. Kerry stressed that the United States wanted China, to which he will travel on Saturday, to use its influence with North Korea to persuade it to denuclearize. | |
| The United States also wants China to crack down on the illicit flow of funds that move through front companies and banks that the North Korean government is using to support its nuclear weapons program, according to a senior State Department official who traveled on Mr. Kerry’s plane and spoke on the condition of anonymity, following diplomatic protocol. | The United States also wants China to crack down on the illicit flow of funds that move through front companies and banks that the North Korean government is using to support its nuclear weapons program, according to a senior State Department official who traveled on Mr. Kerry’s plane and spoke on the condition of anonymity, following diplomatic protocol. |
| “We want to see them do what we do, what the Japanese do, what the South Koreans do, which is to stick to U.N. Security Council resolutions” and “stop those money trails,” the official said. | “We want to see them do what we do, what the Japanese do, what the South Koreans do, which is to stick to U.N. Security Council resolutions” and “stop those money trails,” the official said. |
| Whether the Chinese will prove more helpful than they have in the past remains unclear. The United States has long sought to enlist China’s cooperation in reining in North Korea's nuclear aspirations. But that has not stopped North Korea from conducting three nuclear tests and testing ballistic missiles. | |
| “We are not privy to conversations between China and North Korea,” said the senior State Department official, who stressed that the United States wanted China “to put more sense of urgency” in its discussions with North Korea. | “We are not privy to conversations between China and North Korea,” said the senior State Department official, who stressed that the United States wanted China “to put more sense of urgency” in its discussions with North Korea. |
| Complicating the equation, the United States does not have a good sense of how decisions are being made in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital. | Complicating the equation, the United States does not have a good sense of how decisions are being made in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital. |
| A working assumption, however, is that Mr. Kim’s bellicose statements are intended to shore up his power at home and assure the North Korean military that it will retain the first claim on resources — what policy analysts call the “military first” policy. | A working assumption, however, is that Mr. Kim’s bellicose statements are intended to shore up his power at home and assure the North Korean military that it will retain the first claim on resources — what policy analysts call the “military first” policy. |
| But that raises the question of how susceptible a North Korean leader who is preoccupied with building up his authority at home might be to outside pressure, let alone the disarmament agenda urged by the United States and its allies. | But that raises the question of how susceptible a North Korean leader who is preoccupied with building up his authority at home might be to outside pressure, let alone the disarmament agenda urged by the United States and its allies. |
| “If you believe in Korean culture, it is difficult to believe that a 29-, 30-year-old would have complete control over bureaucracy, over military, over giving orders,” the State Department official said. | “If you believe in Korean culture, it is difficult to believe that a 29-, 30-year-old would have complete control over bureaucracy, over military, over giving orders,” the State Department official said. |
| “His real goal, of course, is regime survival,” the official said. “That North Korea as an entity, as a nation, should survive with a Kim legacy. So I still believe that is the ultimate goal and that is what he is trying to do.” | “His real goal, of course, is regime survival,” the official said. “That North Korea as an entity, as a nation, should survive with a Kim legacy. So I still believe that is the ultimate goal and that is what he is trying to do.” |