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In Seoul, Kerry Warns North Korea Against Missile Test In Seoul, Kerry Warns North Korea Against Missile Test
(about 3 hours later)
SEOUL, South Korea — Secretary of State John Kerry warned North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, on Friday not to proceed with a test launching of its Musudan missile and underscored that his nation would be defeated if a conflict broke out. SEOUL, South Korea — Secretary of State John Kerry warned North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, on Friday not to proceed with a test launching of its Musudan missile, which he said would inflame "an already volatile, potentially dangerous situation."
The missile has a range of up to 2,500 miles, according to American officials, which means it has the potential to strike targets in South Korea, all of Japan and even Guam. South Korean officials said earlier this week that North Korea had made preparations to test the missile, and an American official told reporters on Friday that a launching could come at any time. But Mr. Kerry also stressed that that the United States was open to negotiations with North Korea if it committed itself to eventual denuclearization.
There has been speculation that Mr. Kim will order the launching to commemorate the anniversary on Monday of the birth of Kim Il-sung, his grandfather and the founder of North Korea, or that it might be fired while Mr. Kerry is in the region. The Musudan missile has a range of up to 2,500 miles, according to American officials, which means it has the potential to strike targets in Japan, South Korea and even Guam. South Korean officials said earlier this week that North Korea has been making preparations to test the missile.
“If Kim Jong-un decides to launch a missile, whether it is across the Sea of Japan or some other direction, he will be choosing willfully to ignore the entire international community,” Mr. Kerry said at a news conference after meeting with President Park Geun-hye and Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se of South Korea. There has been speculation that Mr. Kim would order the launching to commemorate the anniversary on Monday of the birth of Kim Il-sung, his grandfather and the founder of North Korea, or that it might be fired while Mr. Kerry is in the region.
“It’s not going to change our current position, which is very, very clear: we will defend our allies,” Mr. Kerry added. “If Kim Jong-un decides to launch a missile, whether it is across the Sea of Japan or some other direction, he will be choosing willfully to ignore the entire international community,” Mr. Kerry said at a news conference, after meeting with President Park Geun-hye and Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se of South Korea.
American officials have not detected efforts by the North Koreans to mobilize forces or make serious war preparations. And Mr. Kerry said the greatest risk would be a conflict that arose out of a series of provocations and miscalculations by North Korea, not a deliberate attack. Still, he underscored the risks. “It’s not going to change our current position, which is very, very clear: we will defend our allies,” Mr. Kerry said.
American officials have said that they have not detected efforts by the North Koreans to mobilize forces or make serious war preparations. And Mr. Kerry said the greatest risk would be a conflict that arose out of a series of miscalculations by North Korea, not a deliberate attack. Still, he underscored the risks.
“Kim Jong-un needs to understand, as I think he probably does, what the outcome of the conflict would be,” Mr. Kerry said in a pointed reference to the United States and South Korean military capabilities.“Kim Jong-un needs to understand, as I think he probably does, what the outcome of the conflict would be,” Mr. Kerry said in a pointed reference to the United States and South Korean military capabilities.
With tensions running high on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Kerry arrived in Seoul, the South Korean capital, on Friday in an effort to reassure American allies in the region that the United States remained committed to their defense. It is his first visit to South Korea. American officials say that the capabilities of North Korea’s Army have begun to erode because of equipment shortfalls and training deficiencies. But it has sought to compensate by fielding a large number of Special Operations Forces, producing ballistic missiles and developing chemical arms and nuclear weapons, officials say.
Besides stops in South Korea and Japan, Mr. Kerry will also visit China to urge officials there to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program. While the United States and South Korea have publicly said a launching would be a serious provocation some American officials say it might also serve as a way for Mr. Kim to back away from a confrontation while saving face.
“That might give Kim Jong-un some sort of off ramp,” said an American official who, following diplomatic protocol, spoke to reporters on the conditional of anonymity. “You could say I have stood up to the United States; I launched a missile.”
The American official said the United States had not seen any indications that a launching was imminent but noted that it could be carried out with little or no notice.
Asia is the last leg on Mr. Kerry’s six-nation tour. With tensions running high on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Kerry arrived in Seoul, the South Korean capital, on Friday to reassure America’s ally and discuss United States-South Korea issues before Ms. Park comes to Washington next month to meet with President Obama.
Though he has traveled to Asia for more than four decades, this was Mr. Kerry’s first visit to South Korea. Mr. Kerry noted that Mr. Obama had canceled some American military exercises to contain tensions in the region.
Mr. Kerry also dispensed with one of the rituals of many visiting American dignitaries: a high-profile trip to the demilitarized zone between the North and the South.
Besides stops in South Korea and Japan, Mr. Kerry will also visit China on Saturday to urge officials there to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program.
Reiterating the longstanding American position, Mr. Kerry said the United States would never accept North Korea as a nuclear state. Talks involving the United States and North Korea, he said, could take place only if Mr. Kim agreed to move to denuclearization.Reiterating the longstanding American position, Mr. Kerry said the United States would never accept North Korea as a nuclear state. Talks involving the United States and North Korea, he said, could take place only if Mr. Kim agreed to move to denuclearization.
“They simply have to be prepared to live up to their international obligations and standards, which they have accepted, and make it clear they will move to denuclearization as part of the talks and those talks can begin,” Mr. Kerry said. “But they have to be really serious.” “They simply have to be prepared to live up to their international obligations and standards, which they have accepted, and make it clear they will move to denuclearization as part of the talks, and those talks can begin,” Mr. Kerry said. “But they have to be really serious.”
At the same time, Mr. Kerry applauded efforts by the South, which has called for dialogue with North Korea. At the same time, a joint statement issued by Mr. Kerry and Mr. Yun endorsed Ms. Park’s efforts to establish a dialogue with North Korea.
The disclosure on Thursday that the Defense Intelligence Agency had concluded with “moderate confidence” that North Korea was capable of launching a missile with a nuclear warhead, albeit an unreliable one, was the subject of much attention here. Under the previous South Korean leader, Lee Myung-bak, Washington and South Korea had moved in lock step, keeping contacts with the North to a minimum and insisting on applying sanctions until North Korea would make serious steps toward denuclearization.
An American official who briefed reporters here and who is familiar with North Korea's military capabilities asserted that was “premature” to conclude that it had mastered the challenges of miniaturizing a nuclear warhead and connecting it to a multistage missile. Under Ms. Park, South Korea appears to have eased the stance. While South Korean officials said they wanted dialogue with North Korea to help explore ways of defusing the current crisis they insisted they had no intention of compromising on the fundamental question of its nuclear program.
Mr. Kerry stressed that the United States wanted China, to which he will travel on Saturday, to use its influence with North Korea to persuade it to denuclearize. “We will strongly retaliate against North Korean provocations, but if North Korea accepts change and joins us in dialogue, we will try to build mutual trust for coprosperity," Ms. Park told Mr. Kerry, according to an account provided by her office.
The United States also wants China to crack down on the illicit flow of funds that move through front companies and banks that the North Korean government is using to support its nuclear weapons program, according to a senior State Department official who traveled on Mr. Kerry’s plane and spoke on the condition of anonymity, following diplomatic protocol. As part of the trust-building effort, the South Korean government had support the provision of medicine to North Korea by nongovernmental groups. “Truly humanitarian aid and transparent aid,” Mr. Yun said, “is totally acceptable.”
“We want to see them do what we do, what the Japanese do, what the South Koreans do, which is to stick to U.N. Security Council resolutions” and “stop those money trails,” the official said. The disclosure on Thursday that the Defense Intelligence Agency had determined with “moderate confidence” that North Korea was capable of making a nuclear weapon small enough to be delivered by a ballistic missile was the subject of much attention here.
Whether the Chinese will prove more helpful than they have in the past remains unclear. The United States has long sought to enlist China’s cooperation in reining in North Korea's nuclear aspirations. But that has not stopped North Korea from conducting three nuclear tests and testing ballistic missiles. Mr. Kerry said the United States does not believe that the North Koreans have such a “fully tested and available capability.”
“We are not privy to conversations between China and North Korea,” said the senior State Department official, who stressed that the United States wanted China “to put more sense of urgency” in its discussions with North Korea. “Obviously, they have conducted a nuclear test, so there’s some kind of device. That is very different from miniaturization and delivery,” Mr. Kerry added. “Does it get you closer to the line that is more dangerous? Yes.”
Complicating the equation, the United States does not have a good sense of how decisions are being made in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital.
A working assumption, however, is that Mr. Kim’s bellicose statements are intended to shore up his power at home and assure the North Korean military that it will retain the first claim on resources — what policy analysts call the “military first” policy.
But that raises the question of how susceptible a North Korean leader who is preoccupied with building up his authority at home might be to outside pressure, let alone the disarmament agenda urged by the United States and its allies.
“If you believe in Korean culture, it is difficult to believe that a 29-, 30-year-old would have complete control over bureaucracy, over military, over giving orders,” the State Department official said.
“His real goal, of course, is regime survival,” the official said. “That North Korea as an entity, as a nation, should survive with a Kim legacy. So I still believe that is the ultimate goal and that is what he is trying to do.”