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| Scottish teenagers likely to reject independence | Scottish teenagers likely to reject independence |
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| An opinion poll of Scottish teenagers suggests that under-18s will heavily reject independence in next year's referendum, after only 21% of those surveyed supported leaving the UK. | An opinion poll of Scottish teenagers suggests that under-18s will heavily reject independence in next year's referendum, after only 21% of those surveyed supported leaving the UK. |
| The poll is the first major study of likely voting intentions among Scottish 14 to 17-year-olds, some 16 months before more than 120,000 16 and 17-year-olds will be given a vote for the first time in next year's independence referendum. | The poll is the first major study of likely voting intentions among Scottish 14 to 17-year-olds, some 16 months before more than 120,000 16 and 17-year-olds will be given a vote for the first time in next year's independence referendum. |
| The study, overseen by academics at Edinburgh University for the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) found that 60% of the 1,018 teenagers surveyed believed that Scotland should stay in the UK, with 19% undecided. | The study, overseen by academics at Edinburgh University for the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) found that 60% of the 1,018 teenagers surveyed believed that Scotland should stay in the UK, with 19% undecided. |
| While the study provides only a tiny snapshot of the entire 4m electorate, that margin is one of the widest against independence yet found in recent opinion polls. Excluding undecideds, the poll showed opposition to independence at 74% to 26% in support. | While the study provides only a tiny snapshot of the entire 4m electorate, that margin is one of the widest against independence yet found in recent opinion polls. Excluding undecideds, the poll showed opposition to independence at 74% to 26% in support. |
| The results are a blow to Alex Salmond, the first minister and leader of the Scottish National party, and to leaders of the wider independence movement. While SNP ministers do not claim a majority of teenagers back leaving the UK, they did believe a significant minority would say yes. | The results are a blow to Alex Salmond, the first minister and leader of the Scottish National party, and to leaders of the wider independence movement. While SNP ministers do not claim a majority of teenagers back leaving the UK, they did believe a significant minority would say yes. |
| Until this survey, most polls had tended to suggest a higher proportion of under 18s would vote yes on 18 September next year, while a poll by Ipsos Mori for the Times this year suggested a sharp jump in support for independence among 18 to 24s. | |
| The study also contrasted teenagers' views with their parents, and found under-18s were more hostile to independence. Among their parents, support for the UK stood at 50%, with support for independence at 30%. Again, however, 19% had not yet decided. | The study also contrasted teenagers' views with their parents, and found under-18s were more hostile to independence. Among their parents, support for the UK stood at 50%, with support for independence at 30%. Again, however, 19% had not yet decided. |
| Patricia Ferguson MSP, the Scottish Labour member of Holyrood's referendum bill committee, said these findings were a setback for Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister put in charge of the referendum campaign by Salmond last year. | Patricia Ferguson MSP, the Scottish Labour member of Holyrood's referendum bill committee, said these findings were a setback for Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister put in charge of the referendum campaign by Salmond last year. |
| "Despite more than six months in charge of the campaign to break up Britain, [Sturgeon] has failed to move the opinion polls and our young people remain deeply unconvinced by her assertions and bluster," Ferguson said. | "Despite more than six months in charge of the campaign to break up Britain, [Sturgeon] has failed to move the opinion polls and our young people remain deeply unconvinced by her assertions and bluster," Ferguson said. |
| "It is refreshing to see young people showing the confidence to say no, despite the assumptions made about them." | "It is refreshing to see young people showing the confidence to say no, despite the assumptions made about them." |
| The ESRC decision to question 14 and 15- year-olds means for the first time teenagers who will be eligible to vote as 16 and 17-year-olds next year have been surveyed. | The ESRC decision to question 14 and 15- year-olds means for the first time teenagers who will be eligible to vote as 16 and 17-year-olds next year have been surveyed. |
| However, the poll also confirmed a high degree of uncertainty among teenagers about the level of detail and information around the issues. | However, the poll also confirmed a high degree of uncertainty among teenagers about the level of detail and information around the issues. |
| It said 67% wanted more information before they finally decided, while 33% said they had enough to decide. Numerous organisations, including the Electoral Commission, have called for far more public information to be released before referendum day. | It said 67% wanted more information before they finally decided, while 33% said they had enough to decide. Numerous organisations, including the Electoral Commission, have called for far more public information to be released before referendum day. |
| Angus Robertson, the SNP's campaigns director, said there were also contradictory findings from opinion polls. A recent Panelbase survey for the Sunday Times had found "almost equal" levels of support for and against independence among younger voters. | Angus Robertson, the SNP's campaigns director, said there were also contradictory findings from opinion polls. A recent Panelbase survey for the Sunday Times had found "almost equal" levels of support for and against independence among younger voters. |
| It was significant, Robertson said, that the Edinburgh University/ESRC study had discovered that two thirds of teenagers wanted more information, before finally deciding. | It was significant, Robertson said, that the Edinburgh University/ESRC study had discovered that two thirds of teenagers wanted more information, before finally deciding. |
| And later this year, the Scottish government's prospectus for independence would set out those detailed proposals. | And later this year, the Scottish government's prospectus for independence would set out those detailed proposals. |
| "We believe that by 18 September 2014, most people of all ages will agree with the positive case for an independent Scotland and choose a future that reflects their own ambitions for their country – including getting rid of nuclear weapons and Scottish control of the economy and welfare state," Robertson said. | "We believe that by 18 September 2014, most people of all ages will agree with the positive case for an independent Scotland and choose a future that reflects their own ambitions for their country – including getting rid of nuclear weapons and Scottish control of the economy and welfare state," Robertson said. |
| A Scottish government spokesperson said: "It is clear from this survey that a high proportion of the young people who took part have an open mind about how they are going to vote in the referendum – with two thirds keen to get more information about independence before they finally decide how they will vote." | A Scottish government spokesperson said: "It is clear from this survey that a high proportion of the young people who took part have an open mind about how they are going to vote in the referendum – with two thirds keen to get more information about independence before they finally decide how they will vote." |
| The study confirmed that, as with adult female voters, a smaller proportion of girls backed independence, with just over 17% of girls planning to vote yes compared with 25% of boys. | The study confirmed that, as with adult female voters, a smaller proportion of girls backed independence, with just over 17% of girls planning to vote yes compared with 25% of boys. |
| And a large number of teenagers who planned to vote no already said they had enough information: 39% of no voters said they knew enough to decide, versus 32% of yes voters. Only 13% of those surveyed said they were unlikely to vote. | And a large number of teenagers who planned to vote no already said they had enough information: 39% of no voters said they knew enough to decide, versus 32% of yes voters. Only 13% of those surveyed said they were unlikely to vote. |
| Professor Lindsay Paterson, one of the Edinburgh University research team, said many more surveys were needed as the independence campaign continued: "No survey is ever totally definitive and we would be delighted if somebody would replicate this. | Professor Lindsay Paterson, one of the Edinburgh University research team, said many more surveys were needed as the independence campaign continued: "No survey is ever totally definitive and we would be delighted if somebody would replicate this. |
| "This is an indication. It is the first time it has ever been done. There has never before been a systematic, representative, rigorous survey of the 14 to 17-year-olds in relation to the referendum." | "This is an indication. It is the first time it has ever been done. There has never before been a systematic, representative, rigorous survey of the 14 to 17-year-olds in relation to the referendum." |
| • This article was amended on 3 June 2013. The Ipsos Mori poll was of people aged 18-24, not under-18s as originally reported. This has been corrected. |