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| Scottish teenagers likely to reject independence | Scottish teenagers likely to reject independence |
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| An opinion poll of Scottish teenagers suggests that under-18s will heavily reject independence in next year's referendum, after only 21% of those surveyed supported leaving the UK. | An opinion poll of Scottish teenagers suggests that under-18s will heavily reject independence in next year's referendum, after only 21% of those surveyed supported leaving the UK. |
| The poll is the first major study of likely voting intentions among Scottish 14 to 17-year-olds, some 16 months before more than 120,000 16 and 17-year-olds will be given a vote for the first time in next year's independence referendum. | The poll is the first major study of likely voting intentions among Scottish 14 to 17-year-olds, some 16 months before more than 120,000 16 and 17-year-olds will be given a vote for the first time in next year's independence referendum. |
| The study, overseen by academics at Edinburgh University for the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) found that 60% of the 1,018 teenagers surveyed believed that Scotland should stay in the UK, with 19% undecided. | The study, overseen by academics at Edinburgh University for the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) found that 60% of the 1,018 teenagers surveyed believed that Scotland should stay in the UK, with 19% undecided. |
| While the study provides only a tiny snapshot of the entire 4 million electorate, that margin is one of the widest against independence yet found in recent opinion polls. Excluding undecideds, the poll showed opposition to independence at 74% versus 26% in support. | |
| The results are a blow to Alex Salmond, the first minister and leader of the Scottish National party, and to leaders of the wider independence movement. While SNP ministers do not claim a majority of teenagers back leaving the UK, they did believe a significant minority would say yes. | The results are a blow to Alex Salmond, the first minister and leader of the Scottish National party, and to leaders of the wider independence movement. While SNP ministers do not claim a majority of teenagers back leaving the UK, they did believe a significant minority would say yes. |
| Until this survey, most polls had tended to suggest a higher proportion of under 18s would vote yes on 18 September next year, while a poll by Ipsos Mori for the Times this year suggested a sharp jump in support for independence among 18 to 24s. | Until this survey, most polls had tended to suggest a higher proportion of under 18s would vote yes on 18 September next year, while a poll by Ipsos Mori for the Times this year suggested a sharp jump in support for independence among 18 to 24s. |
| The study also contrasted teenagers' views with their parents', and found under-18s were more hostile to independence. Among their parents, support for the UK stood at 50%, with support for independence at 30%. Again, however, 19% had not yet decided. | |
| Patricia Ferguson MSP, the Scottish Labour member of Holyrood's referendum bill committee, said these findings were a setback for Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister put in charge of the referendum campaign by Salmond last year. | Patricia Ferguson MSP, the Scottish Labour member of Holyrood's referendum bill committee, said these findings were a setback for Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister put in charge of the referendum campaign by Salmond last year. |
| "Despite more than six months in charge of the campaign to break up Britain, [Sturgeon] has failed to move the opinion polls and our young people remain deeply unconvinced by her assertions and bluster," Ferguson said. | "Despite more than six months in charge of the campaign to break up Britain, [Sturgeon] has failed to move the opinion polls and our young people remain deeply unconvinced by her assertions and bluster," Ferguson said. |
| "It is refreshing to see young people showing the confidence to say no, despite the assumptions made about them." | "It is refreshing to see young people showing the confidence to say no, despite the assumptions made about them." |
| The ESRC decision to question 14 and 15- year-olds means for the first time teenagers who will be eligible to vote as 16 and 17-year-olds next year have been surveyed. | The ESRC decision to question 14 and 15- year-olds means for the first time teenagers who will be eligible to vote as 16 and 17-year-olds next year have been surveyed. |
| However, the poll also confirmed a high degree of uncertainty among teenagers about the level of detail and information around the issues. | However, the poll also confirmed a high degree of uncertainty among teenagers about the level of detail and information around the issues. |
| It said 67% wanted more information before they finally decided, while 33% said they had enough to decide. Numerous organisations, including the Electoral Commission, have called for far more public information to be released before referendum day. | It said 67% wanted more information before they finally decided, while 33% said they had enough to decide. Numerous organisations, including the Electoral Commission, have called for far more public information to be released before referendum day. |
| Angus Robertson, the SNP's campaigns director, said there were also contradictory findings from opinion polls. A recent Panelbase survey for the Sunday Times had found "almost equal" levels of support for and against independence among younger voters. | Angus Robertson, the SNP's campaigns director, said there were also contradictory findings from opinion polls. A recent Panelbase survey for the Sunday Times had found "almost equal" levels of support for and against independence among younger voters. |
| It was significant, Robertson said, that the Edinburgh University/ESRC study had discovered that two-thirds of teenagers wanted more information before finally deciding. | |
| And later this year, the Scottish government's prospectus for independence would set out those detailed proposals. | And later this year, the Scottish government's prospectus for independence would set out those detailed proposals. |
| "We believe that by 18 September 2014, most people of all ages will agree with the positive case for an independent Scotland and choose a future that reflects their own ambitions for their country – including getting rid of nuclear weapons and Scottish control of the economy and welfare state," Robertson said. | "We believe that by 18 September 2014, most people of all ages will agree with the positive case for an independent Scotland and choose a future that reflects their own ambitions for their country – including getting rid of nuclear weapons and Scottish control of the economy and welfare state," Robertson said. |
| A Scottish government spokesperson said: "It is clear from this survey that a high proportion of the young people who took part have an open mind about how they are going to vote in the referendum – with two-thirds keen to get more information about independence before they finally decide how they will vote." | |
| The study confirmed that, as with adult female voters, a smaller proportion of girls backed independence, with just over 17% of girls planning to vote yes compared with 25% of boys. | The study confirmed that, as with adult female voters, a smaller proportion of girls backed independence, with just over 17% of girls planning to vote yes compared with 25% of boys. |
| And a large number of teenagers who planned to vote no already said they had enough information: 39% of no voters said they knew enough to decide, versus 32% of yes voters. Only 13% of those surveyed said they were unlikely to vote. | And a large number of teenagers who planned to vote no already said they had enough information: 39% of no voters said they knew enough to decide, versus 32% of yes voters. Only 13% of those surveyed said they were unlikely to vote. |
| Professor Lindsay Paterson, one of the Edinburgh University research team, said many more surveys were needed as the independence campaign continued: "No survey is ever totally definitive and we would be delighted if somebody would replicate this. | Professor Lindsay Paterson, one of the Edinburgh University research team, said many more surveys were needed as the independence campaign continued: "No survey is ever totally definitive and we would be delighted if somebody would replicate this. |
| "This is an indication. It is the first time it has ever been done. There has never before been a systematic, representative, rigorous survey of the 14 to 17-year-olds in relation to the referendum." | "This is an indication. It is the first time it has ever been done. There has never before been a systematic, representative, rigorous survey of the 14 to 17-year-olds in relation to the referendum." |
| • This article was amended on 3 June 2013. The Ipsos Mori poll was of people aged 18-24, not under-18s as originally reported. This has been corrected. | • This article was amended on 3 June 2013. The Ipsos Mori poll was of people aged 18-24, not under-18s as originally reported. This has been corrected. |