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Regional Rifts Pose Hurdle to New Coalition in Ukraine | |
(35 minutes later) | |
KIEV, Ukraine — As parliamentary officials struggled with the monumental task of rebuilding the collapsed Ukrainian government, the new speaker, Oleksandr V. Turchynov, said on Tuesday that the new administration would not be in place before Thursday. | KIEV, Ukraine — As parliamentary officials struggled with the monumental task of rebuilding the collapsed Ukrainian government, the new speaker, Oleksandr V. Turchynov, said on Tuesday that the new administration would not be in place before Thursday. |
Addressing the Parliament, Mr. Turchynov, who had earlier said that a new government could be chosen by Tuesday, said, “A coalition of national faith must be elected.” | Addressing the Parliament, Mr. Turchynov, who had earlier said that a new government could be chosen by Tuesday, said, “A coalition of national faith must be elected.” |
He also said that he would meet law enforcement agencies to discuss the risk of separatism in regions with large ethnic Russian populations. Separatism was a “serious threat”, he said, according to news services. | He also said that he would meet law enforcement agencies to discuss the risk of separatism in regions with large ethnic Russian populations. Separatism was a “serious threat”, he said, according to news services. |
Mr. Turchynov and other officials have said that the new government would revive the political and trade deals with Europe that the deposed Ukrainian president, Viktor F. Yanukovych, scuttled in the fall, setting off the unrest. | Mr. Turchynov and other officials have said that the new government would revive the political and trade deals with Europe that the deposed Ukrainian president, Viktor F. Yanukovych, scuttled in the fall, setting off the unrest. |
At a news conference in Moscow on Tuesday, the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, warned other states against seeking “unilateral advantages” in Ukraine, but said that Russia’s “policy of nonintervention” would continue, according to Reuters. “It is dangerous and counterproductive to try to force on Ukraine a choice according to the principle of either being with us or against us,” he said. | At a news conference in Moscow on Tuesday, the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, warned other states against seeking “unilateral advantages” in Ukraine, but said that Russia’s “policy of nonintervention” would continue, according to Reuters. “It is dangerous and counterproductive to try to force on Ukraine a choice according to the principle of either being with us or against us,” he said. |
With a manhunt underway for Mr. Yanukovych, the country’s most pressing problem is largely out of lawmakers’ control: a fast-approaching economic disaster that they cannot solve without international assistance. Mr. Turchynov admitted as much, warning in an open letter to the Ukrainian people on Sunday that “Ukraine is now in a pre-default condition and sliding into the abyss.” | With a manhunt underway for Mr. Yanukovych, the country’s most pressing problem is largely out of lawmakers’ control: a fast-approaching economic disaster that they cannot solve without international assistance. Mr. Turchynov admitted as much, warning in an open letter to the Ukrainian people on Sunday that “Ukraine is now in a pre-default condition and sliding into the abyss.” |
On Monday, Parliament accepted the surprise resignation of Ihor Sorkin, the head of the Ukrainian National Bank, and approved a replacement, Stepan Kubiv, who said one of his top priorities would be to secure aid from the International Monetary Fund. | On Monday, Parliament accepted the surprise resignation of Ihor Sorkin, the head of the Ukrainian National Bank, and approved a replacement, Stepan Kubiv, who said one of his top priorities would be to secure aid from the International Monetary Fund. |
Russia had extended a lifeline of $15 billion in loans and cheap gas, but the Kremlin has suspended that aid in response to the political uncertainty in Ukraine. Russian officials continued their saber-rattling on Monday, with Prime Minister Dmitri A. Medvedev dismissing the current government as backed by “Kalashnikov-toting people in black masks” and saying that the leaders in Parliament were not legitimate. | Russia had extended a lifeline of $15 billion in loans and cheap gas, but the Kremlin has suspended that aid in response to the political uncertainty in Ukraine. Russian officials continued their saber-rattling on Monday, with Prime Minister Dmitri A. Medvedev dismissing the current government as backed by “Kalashnikov-toting people in black masks” and saying that the leaders in Parliament were not legitimate. |
It was not clear when or if financial assistance promised by Europe and the United States would arrive. Though the West is claiming victory in the tug of war with Russia over Ukraine, neither the European Union nor the United States has done anything more than make promises. | It was not clear when or if financial assistance promised by Europe and the United States would arrive. Though the West is claiming victory in the tug of war with Russia over Ukraine, neither the European Union nor the United States has done anything more than make promises. |
Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, was in Kiev on Tuesday. For the moment, though, it seemed that all she was able to offer was moral support. | Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, was in Kiev on Tuesday. For the moment, though, it seemed that all she was able to offer was moral support. |
Gerry Rice, a spokesman for the International Monetary Fund, which would have to provide the billions of dollars in urgently needed credit, issued a statement on Monday saying only, “We are talking to all interested parties.” | Gerry Rice, a spokesman for the International Monetary Fund, which would have to provide the billions of dollars in urgently needed credit, issued a statement on Monday saying only, “We are talking to all interested parties.” |
The Obama administration said it was prepared to provide financial assistance beyond that from the I.M.F., but it did not say how much. | The Obama administration said it was prepared to provide financial assistance beyond that from the I.M.F., but it did not say how much. |
“This support can complement an I.M.F. program by helping to make reforms easier and by putting Ukraine in a position to invest more in health and education to help develop Ukraine’s human capital and strengthen its social safety net,” the White House spokesman, Jay Carney, told reporters in Washington. | “This support can complement an I.M.F. program by helping to make reforms easier and by putting Ukraine in a position to invest more in health and education to help develop Ukraine’s human capital and strengthen its social safety net,” the White House spokesman, Jay Carney, told reporters in Washington. |
The I.M.F. has made clear it is unwilling to help Ukraine without a commitment from the country to undertake painful austerity measures and other restructuring. Mr. Yanukovych’s resistance to those demands was a principal reason he backed away from a trade deal with Europe and sought help from Russia instead. | The I.M.F. has made clear it is unwilling to help Ukraine without a commitment from the country to undertake painful austerity measures and other restructuring. Mr. Yanukovych’s resistance to those demands was a principal reason he backed away from a trade deal with Europe and sought help from Russia instead. |
In a statement on Monday, the acting finance minister, Yuriy Kolobov, said Ukraine would need a staggering $35 billion in assistance between now and the end of next year, as well as an emergency loan within the next two weeks that he said was expected from Poland or the United States. | In a statement on Monday, the acting finance minister, Yuriy Kolobov, said Ukraine would need a staggering $35 billion in assistance between now and the end of next year, as well as an emergency loan within the next two weeks that he said was expected from Poland or the United States. |
In his statement, Mr. Kolobov said he hoped to organize a conference with international donors. “The situation in the financial sector as a whole is complex but controlled,” he said. | In his statement, Mr. Kolobov said he hoped to organize a conference with international donors. “The situation in the financial sector as a whole is complex but controlled,” he said. |
That could change at any moment, however, should Russia decide to follow through on previous threats of devastating trade sanctions if Ukraine moves closer to Europe. | That could change at any moment, however, should Russia decide to follow through on previous threats of devastating trade sanctions if Ukraine moves closer to Europe. |
Given the animosity of the new Ukrainian government toward Russia, Ivan Tchakarov, an analyst with Citibank, said that Ukraine could turn only to the West for help, and would inevitably face demands for tough reforms and a near-certain recession as a result. | Given the animosity of the new Ukrainian government toward Russia, Ivan Tchakarov, an analyst with Citibank, said that Ukraine could turn only to the West for help, and would inevitably face demands for tough reforms and a near-certain recession as a result. |
“Assuming that Russia will pass, it will be up to the I.M.F. and E.U. to pick up the tab,” Mr. Tchakarov said. “The I.M.F. will impose hard constraints on the economy, and these will most probably mean a recession in 2014.” | “Assuming that Russia will pass, it will be up to the I.M.F. and E.U. to pick up the tab,” Mr. Tchakarov said. “The I.M.F. will impose hard constraints on the economy, and these will most probably mean a recession in 2014.” |
Still, Mr. Tchakarov noted that there would be long-term benefits to Ukraine’s undertaking desperately needed measures, like ending subsidies of gas prices and cutting the thickets of business regulations that weigh down the economy. These actions could potentially allow it to emerge far stronger, like its neighbors Poland and the Baltic countries, he said. | Still, Mr. Tchakarov noted that there would be long-term benefits to Ukraine’s undertaking desperately needed measures, like ending subsidies of gas prices and cutting the thickets of business regulations that weigh down the economy. These actions could potentially allow it to emerge far stronger, like its neighbors Poland and the Baltic countries, he said. |
At the moment, however, there is not even a Ukrainian government to request the help. Speculation on who might be named prime minister focused on Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk, one of the leaders of the protest movement since its inception, and on Petro Poroshenko, a lawmaker who is also one of the country’s richest men. | At the moment, however, there is not even a Ukrainian government to request the help. Speculation on who might be named prime minister focused on Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk, one of the leaders of the protest movement since its inception, and on Petro Poroshenko, a lawmaker who is also one of the country’s richest men. |
Until the government is in place, Ukraine cannot even make a formal request for the assistance. | Until the government is in place, Ukraine cannot even make a formal request for the assistance. |
Lesya Orobets, a member of Parliament from the party Fatherland, said that if there was ever a moment to ask Ukraine for painful sacrifice, this was it: Things could hardly get any worse. | Lesya Orobets, a member of Parliament from the party Fatherland, said that if there was ever a moment to ask Ukraine for painful sacrifice, this was it: Things could hardly get any worse. |
“We are already on the bottom,” Ms. Orobets said in an interview just outside the Parliament chamber. “This was already very shaky for most of the population. It’s not only about the low salaries, it’s about finding jobs, which was a huge problem. People are starving for some concrete steps. The demand for that is huge.” | “We are already on the bottom,” Ms. Orobets said in an interview just outside the Parliament chamber. “This was already very shaky for most of the population. It’s not only about the low salaries, it’s about finding jobs, which was a huge problem. People are starving for some concrete steps. The demand for that is huge.” |
Ukraine’s troubles run deep. | Ukraine’s troubles run deep. |
Before the last three months of civil unrest, before the clashes that left more than 80 people dead, before the prime minister was fired, the police vanished and the president fled, and before teetering at the edge of chaos and civil war, Ukraine was plagued by corruption, plagued by political and fiscal mismanagement, hopelessly dependent on Russian gas and beholden to the Kremlin’s whims, nearly broke and hurtling toward bankruptcy. | Before the last three months of civil unrest, before the clashes that left more than 80 people dead, before the prime minister was fired, the police vanished and the president fled, and before teetering at the edge of chaos and civil war, Ukraine was plagued by corruption, plagued by political and fiscal mismanagement, hopelessly dependent on Russian gas and beholden to the Kremlin’s whims, nearly broke and hurtling toward bankruptcy. |
It still is. | It still is. |
Inna Bohoslovska, a lawmaker who defected from Mr. Yanukovych’s Party of Regions shortly after the street protests began, said that safeguards would need to be put in place to make sure any international aid money is not wasted or stolen. | Inna Bohoslovska, a lawmaker who defected from Mr. Yanukovych’s Party of Regions shortly after the street protests began, said that safeguards would need to be put in place to make sure any international aid money is not wasted or stolen. |
“We will have to create a special body to control the international financial aid and loans,” Ms. Bohoslovska said. | “We will have to create a special body to control the international financial aid and loans,” Ms. Bohoslovska said. |
“Today, this ugliness remains, political corruption remains, thievery remains,” she said. “If we let even one cent of the financial aid, which in fact will be a real Marshall Plan for Ukraine, get stolen again, then no one will believe us anymore.” | “Today, this ugliness remains, political corruption remains, thievery remains,” she said. “If we let even one cent of the financial aid, which in fact will be a real Marshall Plan for Ukraine, get stolen again, then no one will believe us anymore.” |
For much of its post-Soviet history, Ukraine has often been its own worst enemy, with a string of corrupt leaders on the left and right. Even Yulia V. Tymoshenko, who was released from a prison hospital and went straight to address the crowd in Independence Square on Saturday, is regarded with suspicion by most Ukrainians, who would rather have a new face in the presidency. | For much of its post-Soviet history, Ukraine has often been its own worst enemy, with a string of corrupt leaders on the left and right. Even Yulia V. Tymoshenko, who was released from a prison hospital and went straight to address the crowd in Independence Square on Saturday, is regarded with suspicion by most Ukrainians, who would rather have a new face in the presidency. |
Standing outside the Parliament building on Monday, Irina Nikanchuk, a 25-year-old economist, waved a banner calling for early elections to a new Parliament, and heaped scorn on lawmakers and opposition politicians who are the principal beneficiaries of a revolution driven by passions on the street. | Standing outside the Parliament building on Monday, Irina Nikanchuk, a 25-year-old economist, waved a banner calling for early elections to a new Parliament, and heaped scorn on lawmakers and opposition politicians who are the principal beneficiaries of a revolution driven by passions on the street. |
“We need new people who can say no to the oligarchs, not just the old faces,” said Ms. Nikanchuk, referring to the billionaires who control blocks of votes in Parliament. | “We need new people who can say no to the oligarchs, not just the old faces,” said Ms. Nikanchuk, referring to the billionaires who control blocks of votes in Parliament. |
“Tymoshenko is just Putin in a skirt,” she added, comparing the former prime minister and, until Saturday, jailed opposition leader with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. | “Tymoshenko is just Putin in a skirt,” she added, comparing the former prime minister and, until Saturday, jailed opposition leader with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. |
As if to underscore the point, Ms. Tymoshenko arrived at the Parliament building on Monday evening in a black Mercedes sedan, part of an entourage of at least three cars. | As if to underscore the point, Ms. Tymoshenko arrived at the Parliament building on Monday evening in a black Mercedes sedan, part of an entourage of at least three cars. |