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Regional Rifts Pose Hurdle to New Coalition in Ukraine Infighting Poses Hurdle to New Coalition in Ukraine
(35 minutes later)
KIEV, Ukraine — As parliamentary officials struggled with the monumental task of rebuilding the collapsed Ukrainian government, the new speaker, Oleksandr V. Turchynov, said on Tuesday that the new administration would not be in place before Thursday. KIEV, Ukraine — Struggling to reach a deal to form a new majority coalition in Parliament, and under excruciating pressure because of a looming economic disaster, the Ukrainian lawmakers temporarily running the country on Tuesday delayed until Thursday the naming of an acting prime minister and a provisional government.
Addressing the Parliament, Mr. Turchynov, who had earlier said that a new government could be chosen by Tuesday, said, “A coalition of national trust must be elected.” The delay underscored the extreme difficulty that lawmakers now face in rebuilding the collapsed government left behind when President Viktor F. Yanukovych fled Kiev on Saturday and was removed from power in a vote supported by some members of his own party.
He also said that he would meet law enforcement agencies to discuss the risk of separatism in regions with large ethnic Russian populations. Separatism was a “serious threat”, he said, according to news services. The three main opposition parties, which share little in common politically, have been in fierce negotiations, not just among themselves, but also with civic activists and other groups representing the many constituencies involved in Ukraine’s three months of civic uprising.
Mr. Turchynov and other officials have said that the new government would revive the political and trade deals with Europe that the deposed Ukrainian president, Viktor F. Yanukovych, scuttled in the fall, setting off the unrest. Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk, the leader in Parliament of the Fatherland Party and a leading contender to serve as acting prime minister, pleaded with colleagues to swiftly reach an agreement on the designation of an interim government, which is needed to formally request emergency economic assistance from the International Monetary Fund.
At a news conference in Moscow on Tuesday, the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, warned other states against seeking “unilateral advantages” in Ukraine, but said that Russia’s “policy of nonintervention” would continue, according to Reuters. “It is dangerous and counterproductive to try to force on Ukraine a choice according to the principle of either being with us or against us,” he said. “The deadline is Thursday, and I urge all democratic parties and all democratic persons and all democratic M.P.'s urgently to finalize the deal on the coalition,” Mr. Yatsenyuk told reporters outside the Parliament chamber. “We need urgently to hammer out this deal and to form the new government who is to be in charge of the country.”
With a manhunt underway for Mr. Yanukovych, the country’s most pressing problem is largely out of lawmakers’ control: a fast-approaching economic disaster that they cannot solve without international assistance. Mr. Turchynov admitted as much, warning in an open letter to the Ukrainian people on Sunday that “Ukraine is now in a pre-default condition and sliding into the abyss.” “It’s not about the personalities,” Mr. Yatsenyuk added. “This is about the responsibility. You know to be in this government is to commit political suicide, and we need to be very frank and open.”
On Monday, Parliament accepted the surprise resignation of Ihor Sorkin, the head of the Ukrainian National Bank, and approved a replacement, Stepan Kubiv, who said one of his top priorities would be to secure aid from the International Monetary Fund. A $15 billion bailout package secured by Mr. Yanukovych from Russia in December has been suspended, and Ukraine is now hurtling toward default. The value of the currency, the hryvnia, has fallen sharply, and the country’s bond rating has been downgraded so steeply by ratings agencies that the country effectively can no longer borrow on the international markets.
Russia had extended a lifeline of $15 billion in loans and cheap gas, but the Kremlin has suspended that aid in response to the political uncertainty in Ukraine. Russian officials continued their saber-rattling on Monday, with Prime Minister Dmitri A. Medvedev dismissing the current government as backed by “Kalashnikov-toting people in black masks” and saying that the leaders in Parliament were not legitimate. Foreign reserves have plummeted, and the Ukrainian government will soon be unable to pay public salaries or pensions. In a statement on Monday, the acting finance minister said the country would need a staggering $35 billion in assistance between now and the end of next year.
It was not clear when or if financial assistance promised by Europe and the United States would arrive. Though the West is claiming victory in the tug of war with Russia over Ukraine, neither the European Union nor the United States has done anything more than make promises. As a manhunt continued for Mr. Yanukovych, who is now wanted in Kiev on charges of mass murder, a Ukrainian news agency reported that his chief of staff, who was believed to be traveling with the fugitive former president, had been shot in the leg.
Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, was in Kiev on Tuesday. For the moment, though, it seemed that all she was able to offer was moral support. The news agency, Interfax-Ukraine, quoted a spokesman, Artyom Petrenko, as saying that the chief of staff, Andriy Klyuyev, had been wounded, but, “as far as I know, there is no threat to his life.” Mr. Petrenko was quoted as saying that Mr. Klyuyev had resigned on Sunday. The spokesman gave no details on Mr. Klyuyev’s whereabouts.
Gerry Rice, a spokesman for the International Monetary Fund, which would have to provide the billions of dollars in urgently needed credit, issued a statement on Monday saying only, “We are talking to all interested parties.” In Kiev, the new speaker of Parliament, Oleksandr V. Turchynov, who is a veteran lawmaker and a former acting prime minister, has been designated to carry out the duties of president. On Tuesday, Parliament voted, 316 to 0, to authorize Mr. Turchynov to sign legislation adopted by Parliament.
The Obama administration said it was prepared to provide financial assistance beyond that from the I.M.F., but it did not say how much. In other legislative developments on Tuesday, Parliament voted 331 to 0 to schedule elections for mayor of Kiev and the Kiev City Council on May 25, the same day as the presidential voting. Parliament also voted to give the International Criminal Court in The Hague jurisdiction to handle cases related to the deadly violence by the police against antigovernment demonstrators last week.
“This support can complement an I.M.F. program by helping to make reforms easier and by putting Ukraine in a position to invest more in health and education to help develop Ukraine’s human capital and strengthen its social safety net,” the White House spokesman, Jay Carney, told reporters in Washington. The Ukrainian authorities have already said that dozens of officials are now wanted on charges connected to the deaths last week. It was not immediately clear how the vote on the International Criminal Court might affect the local investigations or change any legal proceedings against former officials.
The I.M.F. has made clear it is unwilling to help Ukraine without a commitment from the country to undertake painful austerity measures and other restructuring. Mr. Yanukovych’s resistance to those demands was a principal reason he backed away from a trade deal with Europe and sought help from Russia instead. Underscoring the breakneck pace at which political events have been unfolding here in the capital, campaigning officially began on Tuesday in the emergency presidential election that is now scheduled for May 25.
In a statement on Monday, the acting finance minister, Yuriy Kolobov, said Ukraine would need a staggering $35 billion in assistance between now and the end of next year, as well as an emergency loan within the next two weeks that he said was expected from Poland or the United States. Vitali Klitschko, the former champion boxer and a leader of one of the main parties in Parliament, the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform, immediately declared his candidacy for president. Mr. Klitschko had long said that he would run but his announcement made clear that his presidential ambitions have not been diminished by the release from prison on Saturday of former Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko, who is also expected to run.
In his statement, Mr. Kolobov said he hoped to organize a conference with international donors. “The situation in the financial sector as a whole is complex but controlled,” he said. While Ukraine desperately needs economic aid, which has been promised repeatedly by Brussels and Washington, it was unclear how quickly help would arrive. The International Monetary Fund has made clear that it will demand austerity measures and other long-stalled economic reforms in exchange for any assistance package.
That could change at any moment, however, should Russia decide to follow through on previous threats of devastating trade sanctions if Ukraine moves closer to Europe. At a news conference in Kiev on Tuesday, Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, urged the Ukrainian Parliament to form a government that was inclusive and representative of all views, and called for peace and calm. But on her visit, her fourth to Ukraine since the recent crisis started, she brought nothing in the way of concrete help.
Given the animosity of the new Ukrainian government toward Russia, Ivan Tchakarov, an analyst with Citibank, said that Ukraine could turn only to the West for help, and would inevitably face demands for tough reforms and a near-certain recession as a result. Ms. Ashton met with leaders of all of the major parties, including Mr. Yanukovych’s Party of Regions, which had controlled the majority until several of its members defected in response to the killing by the authorities of dozens of anti-government demonstrators last week. And she praised the Parliament for filling the power vacuum left when Mr. Yanukovych fled.
“Assuming that Russia will pass, it will be up to the I.M.F. and E.U. to pick up the tab,” Mr. Tchakarov said. “The I.M.F. will impose hard constraints on the economy, and these will most probably mean a recession in 2014.” “It was interesting for me to see the Parliament, the Rada functioning,” Ms. Ashton said. “It’s very very important in my view that citizens all across the country can see that the institutions are working and they are working to deliver for the people.”
Still, Mr. Tchakarov noted that there would be long-term benefits to Ukraine’s undertaking desperately needed measures, like ending subsidies of gas prices and cutting the thickets of business regulations that weigh down the economy. These actions could potentially allow it to emerge far stronger, like its neighbors Poland and the Baltic countries, he said. In her meetings with politicians and civic activists, she said, “My message to all of them has been: you need to work together.” She added, “You need to work together and you need to recognize the importance of public accountability for everything you do and to build into your thinking how you will insure that you are open and transparent and responsive to what the people want.”
At the moment, however, there is not even a Ukrainian government to request the help. Speculation on who might be named prime minister focused on Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk, one of the leaders of the protest movement since its inception, and on Petro Poroshenko, a lawmaker who is also one of the country’s richest men. Ms. Ashton said she had been contact with the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, about the situation in Ukraine, and had stressed the importance of preventing violence and safeguarding the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Until the government is in place, Ukraine cannot even make a formal request for the assistance. The Kremlin has said that it views the ousting of Mr. Yanukovych and other actions by the Ukrainian Parliament as illegal, and on Tuesday the Russian Foreign Ministry said it opposed the plans for a presidential election in May because that violated an agreement brokered with Mr. Yanukovych on Friday that had called for elections in December.
Lesya Orobets, a member of Parliament from the party Fatherland, said that if there was ever a moment to ask Ukraine for painful sacrifice, this was it: Things could hardly get any worse. Russia’s representative at those talks had declined to sign the document, and the agreement seems to have been rendered virtually meaningless by subsequent events.
“We are already on the bottom,” Ms. Orobets said in an interview just outside the Parliament chamber. “This was already very shaky for most of the population. It’s not only about the low salaries, it’s about finding jobs, which was a huge problem. People are starving for some concrete steps. The demand for that is huge.”
Ukraine’s troubles run deep.
Before the last three months of civil unrest, before the clashes that left more than 80 people dead, before the prime minister was fired, the police vanished and the president fled, and before teetering at the edge of chaos and civil war, Ukraine was plagued by corruption, plagued by political and fiscal mismanagement, hopelessly dependent on Russian gas and beholden to the Kremlin’s whims, nearly broke and hurtling toward bankruptcy.
It still is.
Inna Bohoslovska, a lawmaker who defected from Mr. Yanukovych’s Party of Regions shortly after the street protests began, said that safeguards would need to be put in place to make sure any international aid money is not wasted or stolen.
“We will have to create a special body to control the international financial aid and loans,” Ms. Bohoslovska said.
“Today, this ugliness remains, political corruption remains, thievery remains,” she said. “If we let even one cent of the financial aid, which in fact will be a real Marshall Plan for Ukraine, get stolen again, then no one will believe us anymore.”
For much of its post-Soviet history, Ukraine has often been its own worst enemy, with a string of corrupt leaders on the left and right. Even Yulia V. Tymoshenko, who was released from a prison hospital and went straight to address the crowd in Independence Square on Saturday, is regarded with suspicion by most Ukrainians, who would rather have a new face in the presidency.
Standing outside the Parliament building on Monday, Irina Nikanchuk, a 25-year-old economist, waved a banner calling for early elections to a new Parliament, and heaped scorn on lawmakers and opposition politicians who are the principal beneficiaries of a revolution driven by passions on the street.
“We need new people who can say no to the oligarchs, not just the old faces,” said Ms. Nikanchuk, referring to the billionaires who control blocks of votes in Parliament.
“Tymoshenko is just Putin in a skirt,” she added, comparing the former prime minister and, until Saturday, jailed opposition leader with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.
As if to underscore the point, Ms. Tymoshenko arrived at the Parliament building on Monday evening in a black Mercedes sedan, part of an entourage of at least three cars.