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Net migration to UK 'underestimated' by nearly 350,000 Net migration to UK 'underestimated' by nearly 350,000
(about 2 hours later)
The net flow of migrants into the UK over a 10-year period was underestimated by nearly 350,000, the Office for National Statistics says. The net flow of migrants into the UK over a decade was underestimated by 346,000, the Office for National Statistics says.
It says the International Passenger Survey, which provided initial estimates, missed a "substantial" number of those migrants from eight countries that joined the EU in 2004.It says the International Passenger Survey, which provided initial estimates, missed a "substantial" number of those migrants from eight countries that joined the EU in 2004.
This underestimate went on until 2008, an ONS review found. An ONS review found the main reason was "inadequate sampling" by the IPS.
Net migration from 2001-2011 is said to be 346,000 higher than was thought. The revised net migration figure for 2001 to 2011 is 2,528,000.
The ONS review looked into the quality of migration estimates, based largely on the International Passenger Survey (IPS) - a system designed to collect information about passengers entering and leaving the UK. The ONS's review looked into the quality of migration estimates, based largely on the IPS - a system designed to collect information about passengers entering and leaving the UK.
It found some citizens coming into the UK from the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia had not been counted. It found some citizens coming into the UK from the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia had not been counted between 2004 and 2008.
'Important evidence''Important evidence'
This was partly due to the fact IPS interviews focused on major airports such as Heathrow and Gatwick instead of the regional hubs which were increasingly being used by migrants, the ONS said.This was partly due to the fact IPS interviews focused on major airports such as Heathrow and Gatwick instead of the regional hubs which were increasingly being used by migrants, the ONS said.
This meant that regional airports in the UK were either not covered at all - or not fully covered - by the IPS.This meant that regional airports in the UK were either not covered at all - or not fully covered - by the IPS.
Improvements were later made to the IPS and from 2008, more regional airports were included in the surveys and more interviews were conducted at major regional airports such as Luton and Stansted.Improvements were later made to the IPS and from 2008, more regional airports were included in the surveys and more interviews were conducted at major regional airports such as Luton and Stansted.
The ONS said: "There is evidence that shows the IPS missed a substantial amount of immigration of EU8 citizens that occurred between 2004 and 2008, prior to IPS improvements from 2009.
"This is evident from comparisons of IPS data with a number of other data sources related to immigration."
Net migration is the number of people moving to the UK minus the number of those leaving.Net migration is the number of people moving to the UK minus the number of those leaving.
The government wants it cut to under 100,000 by the next general election.
'Better data needed'
Migration Watch chairman Sir Andrew Green said: "This is final confirmation that net foreign immigration under Labour totalled nearly four million, two-thirds from outside the European Union.Migration Watch chairman Sir Andrew Green said: "This is final confirmation that net foreign immigration under Labour totalled nearly four million, two-thirds from outside the European Union.
"It also shows that the peak of net migration was almost 275,000 a year, making it even more difficult for the present government to get the numbers down to the tens of thousands.""It also shows that the peak of net migration was almost 275,000 a year, making it even more difficult for the present government to get the numbers down to the tens of thousands."
Carlos Vargas-Silva, senior researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said: "We have known for some time that net migration must have been much higher during the 2001-2011 period than the official estimates had suggested.Carlos Vargas-Silva, senior researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said: "We have known for some time that net migration must have been much higher during the 2001-2011 period than the official estimates had suggested.
"This report provides important evidence of the need for better migration data and of the limitations of using a survey to develop net migration data.""This report provides important evidence of the need for better migration data and of the limitations of using a survey to develop net migration data."
The IPS estimates of children aged under 15 who are entering the UK are also too low, the ONS review found.The IPS estimates of children aged under 15 who are entering the UK are also too low, the ONS review found.
The review was carried out after information from the 2011 Census showed the population of England and Wales grew by 464,000 more in a decade than the ONS estimated, mostly due to migration.