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Net migration to UK 'underestimated' by nearly 350,000 Net migration to UK 'underestimated' by nearly 350,000
(about 2 hours later)
The net flow of migrants into the UK over a decade was underestimated by 346,000, the Office for National Statistics says. The net flow of migrants into the UK over a decade was underestimated by 346,000, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) says.
It says the International Passenger Survey, which provided initial estimates, missed a "substantial" number of those migrants from eight countries that joined the EU in 2004. New year-on-year figures show the highest discrepancies came in the first four years after Eastern European countries joined the EU.
An ONS review found the main reason was "inadequate sampling" by the IPS. The ONS realised after the 2011 census that its previous projections had overlooked many people entering the UK.
The revised net migration figure for 2001 to 2011 is 2,528,000. A review found the main reason was "inadequate sampling" of migrants.
The ONS's review looked into the quality of migration estimates, based largely on the IPS - a system designed to collect information about passengers entering and leaving the UK. 'Out of control'
It found some citizens coming into the UK from the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia had not been counted between 2004 and 2008. Net migration is the number of people moving to the UK minus the number leaving.
'Important evidence' The government wants it cut to under 100,000 by the next general election - but it currently stands at more than 200,000.
This was partly due to the fact IPS interviews focused on major airports such as Heathrow and Gatwick instead of the regional hubs which were increasingly being used by migrants, the ONS said. The ONS's review looked into the quality of migration estimates, which are based largely on the International Passenger Survey (IPS) - a system designed to collect information about passengers entering and leaving the UK.
This meant that regional airports in the UK were either not covered at all - or not fully covered - by the IPS. The IPS found some citizens coming into the UK from the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia had not been counted between 2004 and 2008.
Improvements were later made to the IPS and from 2008, more regional airports were included in the surveys and more interviews were conducted at major regional airports such as Luton and Stansted. This was partly because IPS interviews focused on major airports such as Heathrow, Gatwick and Manchester - at the expense of regional hubs which were increasingly being used by migrants, the ONS said.
The ONS said: "There is evidence that shows the IPS missed a substantial amount of immigration of EU8 citizens that occurred between 2004 and 2008, prior to IPS improvements from 2009. Regional airports in the UK were either not covered at all by the IPS or not fully covered, the ONS said.
Improvements were later made to the IPS, and from 2008 more interviews were conducted at major regional airports such as Luton and Stansted.
The ONS said: "There is evidence that shows the IPS missed a substantial amount of immigration of EU8 citizens [from the eight Eastern European countries named] that occurred between 2004 and 2008, prior to IPS improvements from 2009.
"This is evident from comparisons of IPS data with a number of other data sources related to immigration.""This is evident from comparisons of IPS data with a number of other data sources related to immigration."
Net migration is the number of people moving to the UK minus the number of those leaving.
The government wants it cut to under 100,000 by the next general election.
'Better data needed''Better data needed'
Migration Watch chairman Sir Andrew Green said: "This is final confirmation that net foreign immigration under Labour totalled nearly four million, two-thirds from outside the European Union. Migration Watch UK chairman Sir Andrew Green said: "This is final confirmation that net foreign immigration under Labour totalled nearly four million, two-thirds from outside the European Union.
"It also shows that the peak of net migration was almost 275,000 a year, making it even more difficult for the present government to get the numbers down to the tens of thousands.""It also shows that the peak of net migration was almost 275,000 a year, making it even more difficult for the present government to get the numbers down to the tens of thousands."
Downing Street said David Cameron had "confidence" in the ONS.
The prime minister's spokesman said: "What the latest ONS statistics underline is the point at which, in the 2000s, immigration was out of control."
Carlos Vargas-Silva, senior researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said: "We have known for some time that net migration must have been much higher during the 2001-2011 period than the official estimates had suggested.Carlos Vargas-Silva, senior researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said: "We have known for some time that net migration must have been much higher during the 2001-2011 period than the official estimates had suggested.
"This report provides important evidence of the need for better migration data and of the limitations of using a survey to develop net migration data.""This report provides important evidence of the need for better migration data and of the limitations of using a survey to develop net migration data."
The IPS estimates of children aged under 15 who are entering the UK are also too low, the ONS review found.
The review was carried out after information from the 2011 Census showed the population of England and Wales grew by 464,000 more in a decade than the ONS estimated, mostly due to migration.