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| Scottish independence poll shows yes campaign gaining ground | Scottish independence poll shows yes campaign gaining ground |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| The poll lead of the no campaign in the Scottish independence debate has narrowed as more undecided voters make up their minds with just over a month until the referendum. | The poll lead of the no campaign in the Scottish independence debate has narrowed as more undecided voters make up their minds with just over a month until the referendum. |
| The latest ICM poll found that 38% of people said they supported a yes vote, up four points on last month, and 47% backed a no vote, up two points on the August survey, which was carried out for the Scotland on Sunday. | |
| When undecided voters are factored out, support stands at 55% for no and 45% for yes, a move of two points towards yes from last month. | When undecided voters are factored out, support stands at 55% for no and 45% for yes, a move of two points towards yes from last month. |
| The poll of more than 1,000 people was carried out after the first TV debate between Scotland's first minister, Alex Salmond, and the no campaign's Alistair Darling. It found that 42% of people said Darling came out on top and 19% thought Salmond won. | The poll of more than 1,000 people was carried out after the first TV debate between Scotland's first minister, Alex Salmond, and the no campaign's Alistair Darling. It found that 42% of people said Darling came out on top and 19% thought Salmond won. |
| Arguments over currency dominated a large part of the debate, and the poll found that 52% said they thought the Scottish government's currency plans were "unconvincing". | Arguments over currency dominated a large part of the debate, and the poll found that 52% said they thought the Scottish government's currency plans were "unconvincing". |
| The Scottish government favours a formal currency union with the rest of the UK, which would allow an independent Scotland to continue to use the Bank of England as its central bank. The UK government and the main Westminster parties have already ruled out that option. | The Scottish government favours a formal currency union with the rest of the UK, which would allow an independent Scotland to continue to use the Bank of England as its central bank. The UK government and the main Westminster parties have already ruled out that option. |
| Professor John Curtice, a polling expert at Strathclyde University, said the no campaign not gained any long-term advantage form the debate. | Professor John Curtice, a polling expert at Strathclyde University, said the no campaign not gained any long-term advantage form the debate. |
| "Today's poll puts yes on 38%, up four points on a month ago. No are on 47%, also up on last month but by a more modest two points. Don't knows (which have tended to be relatively high in ICM's polls) have fallen by no less than seven points from 21% to 14%, suggesting that undecided voters have indeed begun to make up their mind as polling day approaches," he wrote on the on the What Scotland Thinks website. | "Today's poll puts yes on 38%, up four points on a month ago. No are on 47%, also up on last month but by a more modest two points. Don't knows (which have tended to be relatively high in ICM's polls) have fallen by no less than seven points from 21% to 14%, suggesting that undecided voters have indeed begun to make up their mind as polling day approaches," he wrote on the on the What Scotland Thinks website. |
| "Once the don't knows are excluded, the yes tally stands at 45%, no at 55%, representing a two-point swing from no to yes since last month. A movement of that size is too small for us to be able to rule out the possibility that it has simply occurred by chance, and in any event it simply puts the yes vote back to where it was in ICM's poll in June. Today's poll is thus best regarded as failing to show that no has gained any longer-term advantage from the leaders' debate than as evidence of a renewed swing to yes." | "Once the don't knows are excluded, the yes tally stands at 45%, no at 55%, representing a two-point swing from no to yes since last month. A movement of that size is too small for us to be able to rule out the possibility that it has simply occurred by chance, and in any event it simply puts the yes vote back to where it was in ICM's poll in June. Today's poll is thus best regarded as failing to show that no has gained any longer-term advantage from the leaders' debate than as evidence of a renewed swing to yes." |
| Another poll by Panelbase, commissioned by the yes campaign, had similar findings. Carried out over the same period and among similar numbers to the ICM research, it found that 42% supported a yes vote, 46% backed no and 12% were undecided. When the undecided voters were taken out, the balance stood at 48% for yes and 52% for no, a two-point swing to yes from the last Panelbase poll. | Another poll by Panelbase, commissioned by the yes campaign, had similar findings. Carried out over the same period and among similar numbers to the ICM research, it found that 42% supported a yes vote, 46% backed no and 12% were undecided. When the undecided voters were taken out, the balance stood at 48% for yes and 52% for no, a two-point swing to yes from the last Panelbase poll. |
| Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister, said: "These are extremely encouraging findings, showing rising support for yes and putting the referendum on a knife edge. We have a lot of work to do, but the polls show a two-point rise in support for yes in the last couple of weeks, and yes only needs a 2% swing to move ahead. I am confident that we can and will achieve this in the month ahead." | Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister, said: "These are extremely encouraging findings, showing rising support for yes and putting the referendum on a knife edge. We have a lot of work to do, but the polls show a two-point rise in support for yes in the last couple of weeks, and yes only needs a 2% swing to move ahead. I am confident that we can and will achieve this in the month ahead." |