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Scottish independence poll shows yes campaign gaining ground Alex Salmond puts focus on NHS as poll shows pro-independence gain
(about 2 hours later)
The poll lead of the no campaign in the Scottish independence debate has narrowed as more undecided voters make up their minds with just over a month until the referendum. The future of the health service is set to be the key battleground in the Scottish independence campaign this week, with polls suggesting the lead for the no camp is narrowing and the prospect of NHS cuts in Scotland is pushing support for independence among women over the crucial 50% mark.
The latest ICM poll found that 38% of people said they supported a yes vote, up four points on last month, and 47% backed a no vote, up two points on the August survey, which was carried out for the Scotland on Sunday. Despite evidence that voters remain unconvinced by Alex Salmond's currency plans, which have come under sustained scrutiny following his bruising television encounter with Alistair Darling two weeks ago, an ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday found that support for independence had risen by four percentage points since last month to 38%, as more undecided voters make up their minds with a month to go before the referendum.
When undecided voters are factored out, support stands at 55% for no and 45% for yes, a move of two points towards yes from last month. Excluding undecided voters, the poll found the lead for no remained decisive, standing at 55%, a decrease of two points from last month, while support for yes had increased by two points to 45%.
The poll of more than 1,000 people was carried out after the first TV debate between Scotland's first minister, Alex Salmond, and the no campaign's Alistair Darling. It found that 42% of people said Darling came out on top and 19% thought Salmond won. On Monday, Salmond will continue his attempt to shift the focus on to the health service in what is being described as a new Declaration of Arbroath. Speaking before a meeting of the Scottish cabinet in the town where the historic declaration of Scottish independence was made in 1320, he will state that a yes vote would "protect our publicly owned, publicly run NHS forever from Westminster privatisation and cuts".
Arguments over currency dominated a large part of the debate, and the poll found that 52% said they thought the Scottish government's currency plans were "unconvincing". Last week, the first minister offered to enshrine a free NHS in a written constitution after independence, and claimed that a yes vote was needed to prevent increasing privatisation and internal NHS competition in England from spilling over into Scotland. The opposition accused him of spreading "the biggest lie of the independence campaign".
The Scottish government favours a formal currency union with the rest of the UK, which would allow an independent Scotland to continue to use the Bank of England as its central bank. The UK government and the main Westminster parties have already ruled out that option. The Scottish Conservative health spokesman Jackson Carlaw said the suggestion that a no vote was a threat to healthcare was "shameless scaremongering", pointing to figures that showed spending on private healthcare by the NHS in Scotland at a five-year high.
Professor John Curtice, a polling expert at Strathclyde University, said the no campaign not gained any long-term advantage form the debate. "For all the SNP's tall talk on private healthcare, they have spent more than £400m on the sector since coming to power," he said. "The fact is the health service in Scotland is completely devolved, and SNP claims that a no vote threatens its existence are nothing but shameless scaremongering."
"Today's poll puts yes on 38%, up four points on a month ago. No are on 47%, also up on last month but by a more modest two points. Don't knows (which have tended to be relatively high in ICM's polls) have fallen by no less than seven points from 21% to 14%, suggesting that undecided voters have indeed begun to make up their mind as polling day approaches," he wrote on the on the What Scotland Thinks website. Dr Philippa Whitford, a member of Women for Independence and a consultant breast surgeon, welcomed the results of a Panelbase poll commissioned by Yes Scotland, in which 52% of women said they were more likely to vote for independence if the increased role of the private sector in the NHS in England were to have an adverse effect on the Scottish budget.
"Once the don't knows are excluded, the yes tally stands at 45%, no at 55%, representing a two-point swing from no to yes since last month. A movement of that size is too small for us to be able to rule out the possibility that it has simply occurred by chance, and in any event it simply puts the yes vote back to where it was in ICM's poll in June. Today's poll is thus best regarded as failing to show that no has gained any longer-term advantage from the leaders' debate than as evidence of a renewed swing to yes." "No one is now attempting to deny that the NHS in England is being privatised, as 70% of all new NHS contracts have gone to private firms in the last year," Whitford said. "Patients in England still pay prescription charges of more than £8 per item, and payments of £10-£25 to see a GP have been suggested by some thinktanks to cope with NHS debt. A recent survey reported that almost 50% of leaders in NHS England believe that charges are inevitable within 10 years, which would also lead to a reduction in our funding.
Another poll by Panelbase, commissioned by the yes campaign, had similar findings. Carried out over the same period and among similar numbers to the ICM research, it found that 42% supported a yes vote, 46% backed no and 12% were undecided. When the undecided voters were taken out, the balance stood at 48% for yes and 52% for no, a two-point swing to yes from the last Panelbase poll. "The main threat is simply that Westminster sets the total Scottish budget and we face a £2bn share of the £25bn austerity cuts already announced by George Osborne."
Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister, said: "These are extremely encouraging findings, showing rising support for yes and putting the referendum on a knife edge. We have a lot of work to do, but the polls show a two-point rise in support for yes in the last couple of weeks, and yes only needs a 2% swing to move ahead. I am confident that we can and will achieve this in the month ahead."