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Warning over 'falling population' Warning over 'falling population'
(10 minutes later)
A major study of population trends claims Scotland's economy could suffer from low birth rates.A major study of population trends claims Scotland's economy could suffer from low birth rates.
A report by leading Scottish academics said women were having fewer children than those elsewhere in the UK.A report by leading Scottish academics said women were having fewer children than those elsewhere in the UK.
It predicts that by 2040 the country's population may fall below five million for the first time since the 1940s.It predicts that by 2040 the country's population may fall below five million for the first time since the 1940s.
The Scotland's Demography Research Programme was carried out by academics from five Scottish universities over two years.The Scotland's Demography Research Programme was carried out by academics from five Scottish universities over two years.
It contradicts findings from the General Register Office for Scotland in October which suggested a recent upswing in births and migration could see Scotland's population rise until it reaches almost 5.4 million in 2031.It contradicts findings from the General Register Office for Scotland in October which suggested a recent upswing in births and migration could see Scotland's population rise until it reaches almost 5.4 million in 2031.
Female employment seems to depress fertility generally but well-educated Scottish women seem most likely to 'stop at two' ESCR reportFemale employment seems to depress fertility generally but well-educated Scottish women seem most likely to 'stop at two' ESCR report
But the Demography Research Programme said mothers in Scotland were more likely to stop at two children.But the Demography Research Programme said mothers in Scotland were more likely to stop at two children.
It warns that the lower birth rates in Scotland are below the average needed to replace the population and pose economic "challenges" in the years ahead.It warns that the lower birth rates in Scotland are below the average needed to replace the population and pose economic "challenges" in the years ahead.
Factors such as education, employment and living environment contribute to more Scottish women "stopping at two" and the lower birth rates, the report said.Factors such as education, employment and living environment contribute to more Scottish women "stopping at two" and the lower birth rates, the report said.
It found that Scottish women do not intend to have smaller families.It found that Scottish women do not intend to have smaller families.
Half of mothers in Scotland have a first birth before 27.4 years of age, compared with 28.1 years for English women, the report said.Half of mothers in Scotland have a first birth before 27.4 years of age, compared with 28.1 years for English women, the report said.
Migration 'solution'Migration 'solution'
Parents in Scotland also appeared to want more children than they actually have, with the average ideal family size being 2.48 children.Parents in Scotland also appeared to want more children than they actually have, with the average ideal family size being 2.48 children.
But in practice the average size was 1.24 children, scientists found.But in practice the average size was 1.24 children, scientists found.
The study was carried out by 20 researchers across Scotland, funded jointly by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Scottish Government.The study was carried out by 20 researchers across Scotland, funded jointly by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Scottish Government.
The report found: "Scottish women with medium or high levels of education are significantly less likely than other groups - including English women - to have a third birth.The report found: "Scottish women with medium or high levels of education are significantly less likely than other groups - including English women - to have a third birth.
Education, employment and environment contribute to birth rates Education and employment contribute to birth rates
"Female employment seems to depress fertility generally but well-educated Scottish women seem most likely to 'stop at two'.""Female employment seems to depress fertility generally but well-educated Scottish women seem most likely to 'stop at two'."
It adds: "In the last few years, Scotland has recorded clear net in-migration gains.It adds: "In the last few years, Scotland has recorded clear net in-migration gains.
"Maintaining or improving this current balance of migration could prove key to addressing the challenges posed by Scotland's ageing population and projected population decline.""Maintaining or improving this current balance of migration could prove key to addressing the challenges posed by Scotland's ageing population and projected population decline."
Researcher Professor Frances Wasoff said: "A range of factors appear to have a bearing on fertility variations in Scotland.Researcher Professor Frances Wasoff said: "A range of factors appear to have a bearing on fertility variations in Scotland.
"Low fertility in Scotland cannot be attributed in a simplistic way to people holding low fertility aspirations.""Low fertility in Scotland cannot be attributed in a simplistic way to people holding low fertility aspirations."
The work was carried out at Edinburgh, St Andrews, Dundee, Stirling and Strathclyde universities.The work was carried out at Edinburgh, St Andrews, Dundee, Stirling and Strathclyde universities.