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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
|---|---|
| Warning over 'falling population' | Warning over 'falling population' |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| A major study of population trends claims Scotland's economy could suffer from low birth rates. | A major study of population trends claims Scotland's economy could suffer from low birth rates. |
| A report by leading Scottish academics said women were having fewer children than those elsewhere in the UK. | A report by leading Scottish academics said women were having fewer children than those elsewhere in the UK. |
| It predicts that by 2040 the country's population may fall below five million for the first time since the 1940s. | It predicts that by 2040 the country's population may fall below five million for the first time since the 1940s. |
| The Scotland's Demography Research Programme was carried out by academics from five Scottish universities over two years. | The Scotland's Demography Research Programme was carried out by academics from five Scottish universities over two years. |
| It contradicts findings from the General Register Office for Scotland in October which suggested a recent upswing in births and migration could see Scotland's population rise until it reaches almost 5.4 million in 2031. | It contradicts findings from the General Register Office for Scotland in October which suggested a recent upswing in births and migration could see Scotland's population rise until it reaches almost 5.4 million in 2031. |
| Female employment seems to depress fertility generally but well-educated Scottish women seem most likely to 'stop at two' ESCR report | Female employment seems to depress fertility generally but well-educated Scottish women seem most likely to 'stop at two' ESCR report |
| But the Demography Research Programme said mothers in Scotland were more likely to stop at two children. | But the Demography Research Programme said mothers in Scotland were more likely to stop at two children. |
| It warns that the lower birth rates in Scotland are below the average needed to replace the population and pose economic "challenges" in the years ahead. | It warns that the lower birth rates in Scotland are below the average needed to replace the population and pose economic "challenges" in the years ahead. |
| Factors such as education, employment and living environment contribute to more Scottish women "stopping at two" and the lower birth rates, the report said. | Factors such as education, employment and living environment contribute to more Scottish women "stopping at two" and the lower birth rates, the report said. |
| It found that Scottish women do not intend to have smaller families. | It found that Scottish women do not intend to have smaller families. |
| Half of mothers in Scotland have a first birth before 27.4 years of age, compared with 28.1 years for English women, the report said. | Half of mothers in Scotland have a first birth before 27.4 years of age, compared with 28.1 years for English women, the report said. |
| Migration 'solution' | Migration 'solution' |
| Parents in Scotland also appeared to want more children than they actually have, with the average ideal family size being 2.48 children. | Parents in Scotland also appeared to want more children than they actually have, with the average ideal family size being 2.48 children. |
| But in practice the average size was 1.24 children, scientists found. | But in practice the average size was 1.24 children, scientists found. |
| The study was carried out by 20 researchers across Scotland, funded jointly by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Scottish Government. | The study was carried out by 20 researchers across Scotland, funded jointly by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Scottish Government. |
| The report found: "Scottish women with medium or high levels of education are significantly less likely than other groups - including English women - to have a third birth. | The report found: "Scottish women with medium or high levels of education are significantly less likely than other groups - including English women - to have a third birth. |
| Education and employment contribute to birth rates | Education and employment contribute to birth rates |
| "Female employment seems to depress fertility generally but well-educated Scottish women seem most likely to 'stop at two'." | "Female employment seems to depress fertility generally but well-educated Scottish women seem most likely to 'stop at two'." |
| It adds: "In the last few years, Scotland has recorded clear net in-migration gains. | It adds: "In the last few years, Scotland has recorded clear net in-migration gains. |
| "Maintaining or improving this current balance of migration could prove key to addressing the challenges posed by Scotland's ageing population and projected population decline." | "Maintaining or improving this current balance of migration could prove key to addressing the challenges posed by Scotland's ageing population and projected population decline." |
| Researcher Professor Frances Wasoff said: "A range of factors appear to have a bearing on fertility variations in Scotland. | Researcher Professor Frances Wasoff said: "A range of factors appear to have a bearing on fertility variations in Scotland. |
| "Low fertility in Scotland cannot be attributed in a simplistic way to people holding low fertility aspirations." | "Low fertility in Scotland cannot be attributed in a simplistic way to people holding low fertility aspirations." |
| The work was carried out at Edinburgh, St Andrews, Dundee, Stirling and Strathclyde universities. | The work was carried out at Edinburgh, St Andrews, Dundee, Stirling and Strathclyde universities. |
| A Scottish Government spokesman said a growing population had a key role in growing the economy. | |
| He said: "Recent population projections have been optimistic, however, we must address the significant and long-term population decline. | |
| "This is why we have set an ambitious population target for Scotland as part of our Economic Strategy - to match average European population growth in Scotland from 2007 to 2017, supported by increased healthy life expectancy." | |
| He said there was also work to recognise how the skills and life experience of older people can be an asset to Scotland. |