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Fighting Tapers Off in Ukraine as Cease-Fire Takes Effect Ukraine Deal Imposes Truce Putin Devised
(about 7 hours later)
KIEV, Ukraine — Government forces and the Russian-backed separatist rebels fighting in southeastern Ukraine will observe a cease-fire starting Friday, negotiators from all sides announced at a news conference in Minsk, Belarus. KIEV, Ukraine — After five months of intensifying combat that threatened to rip Ukraine apart and to reignite the Cold War, the Ukrainian government and separatist forces signed a cease-fire agreement on Friday that analysts considered highly tenuous in a country that remains a tinderbox.
Speaking from Minsk, negotiators representing the Ukrainian government, the separatists, Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said that the cease-fire would come into force at 6 p.m. local time, or 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time. Previous attempts to stop the fighting have failed. But the prime difference this time was that the main thrust of the plan was not just endorsed, but laid out, by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, whom Western leaders accuse of stoking unrest to prevent Ukraine from slipping out of Russia’s orbit.
As the truce went into effect, fighting that had raged throughout the day around the strategic port city of Mariupol tapered off, and Ukrainian soldiers could be seen pulling back to their bases. But in interviews, the troops said they had not yet received orders to stand down. Whether a cease-fire persists will probably be determined by negotiations over the political future of the southeastern region, where rebel separatists have been fighting the government since April.
At a news conference at a NATO summit meeting in Wales, President Obama said he was “hopeful but, based on past experience, also skeptical” about the prospects of the truce holding. The cease-fire was agreed to after a two-week rebel counteroffensive backed by Russian troops, armor and artillery that threatened to roll back most of the gains the Ukrainian military had made. Russia has not acknowledged the presence of any of its military units on Ukrainian soil, and there was no mention of their removal as part of the agreement.
The Ukrainian national information agency released a list of the 14 points included in the plan: some focused on the cease-fire itself, some on practical steps to get the government functioning again, and some on the political future of the Donbass region. From the moment the crisis erupted in November — when Ukraine’s president at the time, Viktor F. Yanukovych, rejected a trade agreement with the European Union in favor of a deal with Russia — Kiev and the West have accused Moscow of destabilizing the country, first with a stealth invasion and annexation of Crimea and then by inspiring and covertly arming the rebels in southeastern Ukraine.
The agreement followed, almost verbatim, a cease-fire proposal issued by President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine in June. The conflict ignited the most serious East-West confrontation since the end of the Cold War, with Europe and the United States looking largely impotent as Moscow upset the postwar order by altering borders by force. The West has imposed some economic sanctions, and it is threatening more, but the Kremlin has dismissed their impact and made it clear that it no longer feels itself beholden to Western nations or institutions.
It included amnesty for all those who disarm and who did not commit serious crimes, as well as the release of all hostages. Militias will be disbanded and a 10-kilometer buffer zone — about six miles — established along the Russian-Ukrainian border. A prisoner exchange was set to begin as early as Saturday, according to Interfax-Ukraine. The agreement reached Friday laid out the first tentative steps toward both an immediate cessation of hostilities and the promise of greater political freedom in the future. Artillery exchanges tapered off after it was put in effect at 6 p.m., and quiet prevailed through the initial hours.
The area will be subject to joint patrols. The separatists agreed to leave the administrative buildings they control and to allow broadcasts from Ukraine to resume on local television. President Obama, speaking at a news conference at the end of a NATO summit meeting in Wales, said he was “hopeful but, based on past experience, also skeptical” about the strength of any cease-fire.
For the future, the agreement said power would be decentralized and the Russian language protected. An early, failed attempt by more extreme elements in the Ukrainian Parliament to ban Russian as an official language was one of the elements that Moscow seized upon to help inspire the uprising. Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, issued a statement lauding the agreement and expressing hope that it would be observed in full.
The agreement said the executive in control of each region, the equivalent of a governor, would be appointed after consultations with each region. It also promised early elections and a job-creation program. The 14-point peace plan includes some references to the cease-fire itself, some practical steps toward returning government control to the southeast Donbass region and some nods toward future political changes, according to a summary published by the Ukrainian national information agency.
Mr. Poroshenko confirmed the agreement in a statement posted on the presidential website. The agreement resembles, almost verbatim, a proposal for a truce issued by President Petro O. Poroshenko in June.
“The whole world is striving for peace. The whole of Ukraine is striving for peace, including millions of citizens in Donbass,” the statement said, referring to the region that includes the separatist strongholds. It includes amnesty for those who disarm and who did not commit serious crimes, and the exchange of all prisoners. Militias will be disbanded, and a 10-kilometer buffer zone — about six miles — will be established along the Russian-Ukrainian border. The area will be subject to joint patrols. The separatists have agreed to leave the administrative buildings they control and to allow broadcasts from Ukraine to resume on local television.
Mr. Poroshenko said he had ordered the Ukrainian Army to stop firing and called for strict monitoring of the cease-fire by international observers. It was unclear how “disarmament” would be defined, and it emerged as a potential stumbling block. The separatists have demanded that Ukrainian forces withdraw completely from the area, a condition that Kiev considers a nonstarter. The militias will also be unlikely to abandon their weapons.
The cease-fire proposals included a rough outline of a possible political outcome to the conflict, but negotiating that could be a significant hurdle. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has been pressing for regional autonomy for the southeastern regions, which would allow Moscow to influence events in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital. But the Ukrainian government has thus far supported only the idea of decentralization. For the future, the agreement says power will be decentralized and the Russian language protected. An early, failed attempt by more extreme members of the Ukrainian Parliament to ban Russian as an official language was one element that spawned the uprising.
Timothy Ash, a market analyst at Standard Bank in London who closely monitors developments in Ukraine and Russia, said the agreement appeared likely to usher in a long, frozen conflict. It could effectively become a political stalemate like those in other Russian-dominated, quasi-independent “gray zones,” including Transnistria in Moldova and Abkhazia along the border with Georgia. The agreement says the executive in control of each region, the equivalent of a governor, will be appointed after consultations with each region. It also promises early elections and a job-creation program.
“Russian regular and irregular forces are not going to withdraw unless Poroshenko delivers on Putin’s agenda for a federal solution for Ukraine, which is really a nonstarter for any Ukrainian politician and political suicide, in effect,” Mr. Ash wrote on Friday in a note to clients. Had Mr. Poroshenko refused to negotiate a cease-fire, however, Ukraine would have risked losing Mariupol. The negotiators, meeting in Minsk, Belarus, said they would reconvene on Monday to discuss the mechanics to carry out the agreement.
The agreement had been expected after both Mr. Poroshenko and Mr. Putin said earlier this week that a truce was likely to emerge from the talks. Mr. Poroshenko lauded the agreement in a statement posted on the presidential website, paying tribute in his announcement to the fact that Mr. Putin called for a cease-fire with a seven-point plan released Wednesday. Both men said before Friday that they expected an agreement.
In Minsk, Ukraine was represented by a former president, Leonid Kuchma, and the rebels by Aleksandr Zakharchenko, the prime minister and military commander of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic. A spectrum of politicians, civil society activists, diplomats and other analysts welcomed the proposal but expressed serious doubts that it could hold given the wide rift between Kiev and the restive eastern regions.
Russia was represented by its ambassador to Kiev, Mikhail Zurabov, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which is acting for Europe in the crisis, was represented by its ambassador here, Heidi Tagliavini. “I am pleased; it is impossible to solve this conflict by military means,” said Georgiy Kasyanov, a civil society activist and historian who supported the antigovernment protests that erupted in central Kiev last November and eventually lead to the overthrow of the government and the conflict. “People are tired and suffer from psychological depression; we have all been living in a state of shock since November.”
Ukrainian forces had suffered heavy setbacks in the last two weeks, with the separatists breaking out of their isolation in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk and opening a third front along the strategic southern coast around Mariupol. But he, like many, recognized the hurdles ahead. The majority of Ukrainians want peace, he said, but some will be angry about any compromise with the separatist fighters the government has condemned as terrorists for months. In addition, neither side exerts perfect control over the range of fighters in the Donbass region. It will be hard to rein them all in, and any spark could easily reignite the fighting.
The Russian-backed rebels, who seized control of the coastal town of Novoazovsk last week, had advanced about halfway from Novoazovsk to Mariupol, and they had said repeatedly before the cease-fire was announced that an attack on Mariupol was imminent. The goals of the separatists have never been clear, nor whether they agree even among themselves. “We are planning to continue the course toward secession,” said Igor Plotnitskiy, the prime minister of the self-declared Luhansk People’s Republic, according to the RIA Novosti news service. “The cease-fire is a necessary measure. There is a lot of work ahead of us.”
Officials interpreted the opening of a new, southern front as an attempt by Moscow to force Mr. Poroshenko to negotiate with the rebels, whom he has called terrorists. The other side laid down a hard line, too. Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk said on Twitter that transforming the cease-fire into a lasting peace would require three things: a long-term cease-fire, the withdrawal of the Russian Army and a wall along the border.
Although some Ukrainians reject the idea of a compromise, a majority are weary of upheaval. The current crisis started with demonstrations in Kiev in November that resulted in the overthrow of the Russian-allied government and, eventually, a conflict in the east in which more than 2,600 people have died, by the United Nations’ count. Yuriy Syrotyuk, a member of Parliament from the right-wing Svoboda party, said he expected no results. “This is a truce; it is not peace,” Mr. Syrotyuk said in an interview. “There will be no result because Ukraine will not give up Donetsk and Luhansk and Russia will not stop.”
The conflict has developed into the most severe confrontation between Russia and the West since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, with repeated rounds of Western sanctions against Moscow and, this week, the rejuvenation of NATO to act as a deterrent against the Kremlin. In response to an email query, Clifford Kupchan, a director at the Eurasia Group, a Washington consulting firm, and a former State Department official, wrote, “I fear it won’t hold.” The main stumbling block, he said, is that Russia seeks federalization, including the right for each region to conduct its own foreign policy, whereas Mr. Poroshenko has offered only decentralization and would face a political backlash if he went any further.
Analysts were divided on whether the cease-fire would hold, not least because there were divisions among the separatists themselves about what they wanted. “We are planning to continue the course toward secession,” said Igor Plotnitskiy, the prime minister of the self-declared Luhansk People’s Republic, according to the RIA Novosti news service. “The cease-fire is a necessary measure. There is a lot of work ahead of us.” Many analysts said the probable outcome would be a frozen conflict, much like those Russia created in Georgia and Moldova to keep them destabilized.
The Ukrainian side also demonstrated a hard line. Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk said on Twitter that transforming the cease-fire into a lasting peace would require three things: a long-term cease-fire, the withdrawal of the Russian Army and a wall along the border. At the negotiations in Minsk, Ukraine was represented by a former president, Leonid Kuchma, and the rebels by Aleksandr Zakharchenko, the prime minister and military commander of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic.
Ukraine and many Western observers have accused Russia of backing the rebels with fighters and equipment, and of moving its own troops, armor and artillery into Ukrainian territory to carry the fight to the government. Mr. Putin and his government have denied those accusations and insisted that Russia is not a party to the conflict. Russia’s envoy was its ambassador to Kiev, Mikhail Zurabov, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, acting for Europe, was represented by Heidi Tagliavini.
The pause in the violence came as NATO leaders, seeking to counter Russian aggression, approved plans for a rapid-reaction force in Eastern Europe that could mobilize if an alliance country in the region came under attack. Ukrainian forces suffered heavy setbacks in the past two weeks, with the separatists breaking out of their isolation in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk and opening a third front along the strategic southern coast around Mariupol.
“Should you even think of attacking one ally, you will be facing the whole alliance,” Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO’s secretary general, said at the meeting in Newport, Wales, according to The Associated Press. Although Ukraine is not a NATO member, alliance nations in Central and Eastern Europe have expressed alarm at the Russian-backed separatists’ fight for control of regions in eastern Ukraine. The Russian-backed rebels, who seized control of the coastal town of Novoazovsk last week, had advanced about halfway from Novoazovsk to Mariupol in fighting that continued through Friday morning.
Western leaders were also preparing another round of sanctions against Russia, but Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said those might be rescinded if Russia withdrew its troops from Ukraine after the truce took effect. Russia has denied that its troops are actively involved in the fighting. Officials interpreted the opening of a new, southern front as an attempt by Moscow to convince Mr. Poroshenko that he had to reach terms at the negotiating table because he could not win on the battlefield.
With the NATO meeting largely focused on events in Ukraine, the Ukrainian government tried on Friday to shine a spotlight on Russia’s direct involvement in fighting in the east. An estimated 2,000 Russian soldiers have died, Col. Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for the Ukrainian military, said at a briefing in Kiev. He gave no basis or time frame for that figure, which could not be independently verified. He said a convoy of 10 vehicles carrying dead and wounded soldiers had crossed from Ukraine into Russia on Thursday evening.
There has been an outcry in Russia among military families over the lack of information about soldiers fighting in Ukraine. Some Russians have accused the government of hiding the information, much as it did during the wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya. But its estimates of those killed and wounded have been far lower than the figure given by Colonel Lysenko.