This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/06/queensland-early-poll-campbell-newman
The article has changed 6 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| Queensland set for early election as Campbell Newman hopes to surprise Labor | Queensland set for early election as Campbell Newman hopes to surprise Labor |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The Queensland premier, Campbell Newman, has set 31 January as the date for an election in which he risks losing his own inner Brisbane seat in a statewide backlash against his Liberal National party government. | |
| Newman, who in 2012 delivered the LNP a historic landslide after leading the campaign from outside parliament, is predicted by some analysts to lose the seat of Ashgrove to former Labor minister Kate Jones. | Newman, who in 2012 delivered the LNP a historic landslide after leading the campaign from outside parliament, is predicted by some analysts to lose the seat of Ashgrove to former Labor minister Kate Jones. |
| Newman used Twitter to announce the date for a contest in which the LNP, which holds 73 of 89 seats, is likely to have its majority wiped out. The latest polls predict a dead heat between it and Labor on a two-party preferred basis. | |
| This morning I visited the Acting Governor. Writs have been issued for 31 January 2015. The most important election in many years. #qldpol | |
| Griffith university political scientist Paul Williams told Guardian Australia that Newman’s 5.7% margin in Ashgrove was “extremely vulnerable”. | Griffith university political scientist Paul Williams told Guardian Australia that Newman’s 5.7% margin in Ashgrove was “extremely vulnerable”. |
| “There’s a strong likelihood that he’ll be defeated,” he said. | |
| Williams said although Newman’s chances of survival were as slim as Labor’s prospects of pulling off a surprise victory, the LNP would not countenance life without him during its campaign. | Williams said although Newman’s chances of survival were as slim as Labor’s prospects of pulling off a surprise victory, the LNP would not countenance life without him during its campaign. |
| “They’ve already toed the line, saying ‘if Campbell Newman doesn’t win Ashgrove, we’ll be out of government’, which is nonsense,” he said. “They’ll lose Ashgrove a lot sooner before they lose government. So it’s throwing a smokescreen at the electorate. | “They’ve already toed the line, saying ‘if Campbell Newman doesn’t win Ashgrove, we’ll be out of government’, which is nonsense,” he said. “They’ll lose Ashgrove a lot sooner before they lose government. So it’s throwing a smokescreen at the electorate. |
| “But ‘Ashgrovians’ all know the margin is 5.7% and it’s an 11+ per cent swing to get rid of the government and they know they can dump Ashgrove without dumping the LNP.” | “But ‘Ashgrovians’ all know the margin is 5.7% and it’s an 11+ per cent swing to get rid of the government and they know they can dump Ashgrove without dumping the LNP.” |
| Williams said the political aura around Newman, as an entrepreneurial lord mayor for Brisbane, was instrumental in the LNP’s record showing in 2012, especially in the state capital. | Williams said the political aura around Newman, as an entrepreneurial lord mayor for Brisbane, was instrumental in the LNP’s record showing in 2012, especially in the state capital. |
| “Not to say that no one else would have won it, it would have been a ‘drover’s dog scenario’,” Williams said. | “Not to say that no one else would have won it, it would have been a ‘drover’s dog scenario’,” Williams said. |
| “But the fact we had a ‘can do’ leader from Brisbane brought a lot of first time LNP voters over because … he wasn’t perceived as a politician at all, he was seen as a civic worker. | “But the fact we had a ‘can do’ leader from Brisbane brought a lot of first time LNP voters over because … he wasn’t perceived as a politician at all, he was seen as a civic worker. |
| “But of course we’re going to see many of those [city] voters go straight back to Labor this time.” | “But of course we’re going to see many of those [city] voters go straight back to Labor this time.” |
| He said former Ashgrove MP Kate Jones was a “bit of a local hero” and an incidental casualty of the unpopularity of the former Bligh government in which Jones was environment minister. | He said former Ashgrove MP Kate Jones was a “bit of a local hero” and an incidental casualty of the unpopularity of the former Bligh government in which Jones was environment minister. |
| Williams said there were as many as four contenders to replace Newman as leader but only one with the numbers currently in the party room: treasurer Tim Nicholls. | Williams said there were as many as four contenders to replace Newman as leader but only one with the numbers currently in the party room: treasurer Tim Nicholls. |
| Another contender was acting treasurer Scott Emerson, who attacked opposition leader Annastacia Palaszczuk for “going soft” on outlaw motorcycle gangs in the first government statement after poll speculation took shape on Tuesday morning – a signal of what is to be one of the government’s central campaign issues. | Another contender was acting treasurer Scott Emerson, who attacked opposition leader Annastacia Palaszczuk for “going soft” on outlaw motorcycle gangs in the first government statement after poll speculation took shape on Tuesday morning – a signal of what is to be one of the government’s central campaign issues. |
| Emerson challenged Palaszczuk, whose party has vowed to repeal contentious criminal gang laws including the Vicious Lawless Association Disestablishment act, to “rule out accepting donations or support from criminal motorcycle groups”. | Emerson challenged Palaszczuk, whose party has vowed to repeal contentious criminal gang laws including the Vicious Lawless Association Disestablishment act, to “rule out accepting donations or support from criminal motorcycle groups”. |
| “If criminal motorcycle gangs are supporting Labor, then Ms Palaszczuk needs to detail what that level of support means,” Emerson said. | “If criminal motorcycle gangs are supporting Labor, then Ms Palaszczuk needs to detail what that level of support means,” Emerson said. |
| “We are the first state in Australia to effectively deal with the criminal gang problems and that wouldn’t have happened without the current tough legislation. | “We are the first state in Australia to effectively deal with the criminal gang problems and that wouldn’t have happened without the current tough legislation. |
| “This work would be undone if Labor carried through with their threat to replace these laws.” | “This work would be undone if Labor carried through with their threat to replace these laws.” |
| Williams said the public stance had softened on the key issues of the bikie laws and the LNP’s plans to privatise power and port infrastructure, which would have played out “absolutely disastrously” for the government at the ballot box “six months ago”. | Williams said the public stance had softened on the key issues of the bikie laws and the LNP’s plans to privatise power and port infrastructure, which would have played out “absolutely disastrously” for the government at the ballot box “six months ago”. |
| “Those things alone could have been enough to lose the government the election,” he said. | “Those things alone could have been enough to lose the government the election,” he said. |
| “There’s no doubt both those policies were extremely unpopular [but] have become less unpopular. It seems that among the more politically apathetic, because the sting has come out of the headlines, [the LNP] would have clawed some support back.” | “There’s no doubt both those policies were extremely unpopular [but] have become less unpopular. It seems that among the more politically apathetic, because the sting has come out of the headlines, [the LNP] would have clawed some support back.” |
| Williams put the chances of a Labor victory at 10%, with a “much more likely” scenario a hung parliament, with the LNP relying on conservative independents. | Williams put the chances of a Labor victory at 10%, with a “much more likely” scenario a hung parliament, with the LNP relying on conservative independents. |
| “I’m thinking a 10% swing [against the government] and a lot of Brisbane and north Queensland seats [to change hands],” he said. | “I’m thinking a 10% swing [against the government] and a lot of Brisbane and north Queensland seats [to change hands],” he said. |
| Newman was expected to travel to the Queensland governor’s residence – where his controversial chief supreme court justice appointee Tim Carmody is currently acting in the role - to request writs be formally issued for the election. | Newman was expected to travel to the Queensland governor’s residence – where his controversial chief supreme court justice appointee Tim Carmody is currently acting in the role - to request writs be formally issued for the election. |
| Carmody’s widely criticised elevation to the role – panned by fellow judges and after he was seen to be a supportive jurist for the LNP’s controversial bikie laws – was emblematic of the political brawls Newman was willing to provoke to push enforce the crackdown. | Carmody’s widely criticised elevation to the role – panned by fellow judges and after he was seen to be a supportive jurist for the LNP’s controversial bikie laws – was emblematic of the political brawls Newman was willing to provoke to push enforce the crackdown. |
| Palaszczuk said the Newman government had “divided Queensland”. She told ABC radio that her party would be fighting “every day to regain the trust of Queenslanders ... [who] deserve better”. | Palaszczuk said the Newman government had “divided Queensland”. She told ABC radio that her party would be fighting “every day to regain the trust of Queenslanders ... [who] deserve better”. |