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| Campbell Newman gambles political future with snap Queensland election | |
| (about 17 hours later) | |
| The Queensland premier, Campbell Newman, has gambled his political future by calling a snap election for 31 January. | The Queensland premier, Campbell Newman, has gambled his political future by calling a snap election for 31 January. |
| With polls showing his LNP neck and neck with Labor, Newman cut short his holidays on Tuesday to call an election several weeks before it was required. | With polls showing his LNP neck and neck with Labor, Newman cut short his holidays on Tuesday to call an election several weeks before it was required. |
| Opposition leader Annastacia Palaszczuk was forced to scramble back from her summer break but at a hastily called press conference she vowed to fight tooth and nail in a “David and Goliath” contest with the LNP, which won a landslide at the 2012 election. | Opposition leader Annastacia Palaszczuk was forced to scramble back from her summer break but at a hastily called press conference she vowed to fight tooth and nail in a “David and Goliath” contest with the LNP, which won a landslide at the 2012 election. |
| Newman, whom one analyst forecast will lose his seat in the poll after alienating too many voters, said the early announcement was intended to end speculation for the sake of the economy. | Newman, whom one analyst forecast will lose his seat in the poll after alienating too many voters, said the early announcement was intended to end speculation for the sake of the economy. |
| This morning I visited the Acting Governor. Writs have been issued for 31 January 2015. The most important election in many years. #qldpol | This morning I visited the Acting Governor. Writs have been issued for 31 January 2015. The most important election in many years. #qldpol |
| “Queenslanders don’t want and don’t need months of endless politicking and uncertainty as people jostle up to an election date,” Newman told a press conference in Brisbane. “We can’t afford to lose one day because that’s bad for the economy and bad for jobs. | “Queenslanders don’t want and don’t need months of endless politicking and uncertainty as people jostle up to an election date,” Newman told a press conference in Brisbane. “We can’t afford to lose one day because that’s bad for the economy and bad for jobs. |
| “We simply can’t have the sort of political chaos that we have seen in other states. This is going to be a tight election. Labor, through the support of wasted votes going to independents and minor parties, could fall across the line. Annastacia Palaszczuk could be the next premier of Queensland if people buy some of the nonsense that the Labor party are spouting. | “We simply can’t have the sort of political chaos that we have seen in other states. This is going to be a tight election. Labor, through the support of wasted votes going to independents and minor parties, could fall across the line. Annastacia Palaszczuk could be the next premier of Queensland if people buy some of the nonsense that the Labor party are spouting. |
| “I pledge today that if we are re-elected, we will keep working hard on our four pillar economic plan. A long-term plan. Tourism, construction, agriculture and resources.” | “I pledge today that if we are re-elected, we will keep working hard on our four pillar economic plan. A long-term plan. Tourism, construction, agriculture and resources.” |
| However, Labor accused Newman of calling the election during the holiday weeks in order to minimise the exposure of prime minister Tony Abbott on the campaign trail. | However, Labor accused Newman of calling the election during the holiday weeks in order to minimise the exposure of prime minister Tony Abbott on the campaign trail. |
| Abbott was widely regarded as having had a negative impact for the Victorian Liberal party in their election campaign in November. | Abbott was widely regarded as having had a negative impact for the Victorian Liberal party in their election campaign in November. |
| But Newman rejected the allegation and said Abbott would be “more than welcome to come up here”. | But Newman rejected the allegation and said Abbott would be “more than welcome to come up here”. |
| Palaszczuk, who inherited a rump group of only seven MPs after the devastating 2012 defeat, said Newman had not succeeded if he was trying to catch her off guard. | Palaszczuk, who inherited a rump group of only seven MPs after the devastating 2012 defeat, said Newman had not succeeded if he was trying to catch her off guard. |
| Speaking to reporters, she said Newman “took Queenslanders for granted and tore this state apart”. | Speaking to reporters, she said Newman “took Queenslanders for granted and tore this state apart”. |
| She said he has broken promises about jobs, services and health, and has “completely destroyed” the TAFE system. | She said he has broken promises about jobs, services and health, and has “completely destroyed” the TAFE system. |
| “This is going to be a very tough election ... this is going to be a David and Goliath battle,” said Palaszczuk, a lawyer who followed her father Henry Palaszczuk into Queensland Labor politics. | “This is going to be a very tough election ... this is going to be a David and Goliath battle,” said Palaszczuk, a lawyer who followed her father Henry Palaszczuk into Queensland Labor politics. |
| “I am going to fight this election every single day to win it.” | “I am going to fight this election every single day to win it.” |
| The LNP, which holds 73 of 89 seats, faces losing its majority. The latest polls predict a dead heat between it and Labor on a two-party preferred basis. Newman may even lose his seat of Ashgrove to former Labor minister Kate Jones, according to some analysts. | The LNP, which holds 73 of 89 seats, faces losing its majority. The latest polls predict a dead heat between it and Labor on a two-party preferred basis. Newman may even lose his seat of Ashgrove to former Labor minister Kate Jones, according to some analysts. |
| Griffith university political scientist Paul Williams told Guardian Australia that Newman’s 5.7% margin in Ashgrove was “extremely vulnerable”. | Griffith university political scientist Paul Williams told Guardian Australia that Newman’s 5.7% margin in Ashgrove was “extremely vulnerable”. |
| “There’s a strong likelihood that he’ll be defeated,” he said. | “There’s a strong likelihood that he’ll be defeated,” he said. |
| Williams said although Newman’s chances of survival were as slim as Labor’s prospects of pulling off a surprise victory, the LNP would not countenance life without him during its campaign. | Williams said although Newman’s chances of survival were as slim as Labor’s prospects of pulling off a surprise victory, the LNP would not countenance life without him during its campaign. |
| “They’ve already toed the line, saying ‘if Campbell Newman doesn’t win Ashgrove, we’ll be out of government’, which is nonsense,” he said. “They’ll lose Ashgrove a lot sooner before they lose government. So it’s throwing a smokescreen at the electorate. | “They’ve already toed the line, saying ‘if Campbell Newman doesn’t win Ashgrove, we’ll be out of government’, which is nonsense,” he said. “They’ll lose Ashgrove a lot sooner before they lose government. So it’s throwing a smokescreen at the electorate. |
| “But ‘Ashgrovians’ all know the margin is 5.7% and it’s an 11+ per cent swing to get rid of the government and they know they can dump Ashgrove without dumping the LNP.” | “But ‘Ashgrovians’ all know the margin is 5.7% and it’s an 11+ per cent swing to get rid of the government and they know they can dump Ashgrove without dumping the LNP.” |
| Williams said the political aura around Newman, as an entrepreneurial lord mayor for Brisbane, was instrumental in the LNP’s record showing in 2012, especially in the state capital. | Williams said the political aura around Newman, as an entrepreneurial lord mayor for Brisbane, was instrumental in the LNP’s record showing in 2012, especially in the state capital. |
| “Not to say that no one else would have won it, it would have been a ‘drover’s dog scenario’,” Williams said. | “Not to say that no one else would have won it, it would have been a ‘drover’s dog scenario’,” Williams said. |
| “But the fact we had a ‘can do’ leader from Brisbane brought a lot of first time LNP voters over because … he wasn’t perceived as a politician at all, he was seen as a civic worker. | “But the fact we had a ‘can do’ leader from Brisbane brought a lot of first time LNP voters over because … he wasn’t perceived as a politician at all, he was seen as a civic worker. |
| “But of course we’re going to see many of those [city] voters go straight back to Labor this time.” | “But of course we’re going to see many of those [city] voters go straight back to Labor this time.” |
| He said former Ashgrove MP Kate Jones was a “bit of a local hero” and an incidental casualty of the unpopularity of the former Bligh government in which Jones was environment minister. | He said former Ashgrove MP Kate Jones was a “bit of a local hero” and an incidental casualty of the unpopularity of the former Bligh government in which Jones was environment minister. |
| University of Queensland electoral law expert Graeme Orr said the short campaign and voting in January - much of it summer holidays - “shows a government avoiding scrutiny”. | University of Queensland electoral law expert Graeme Orr said the short campaign and voting in January - much of it summer holidays - “shows a government avoiding scrutiny”. |
| The LNP would be buoyed by a “huge” campaign budget and the repeal of limits on electoral spending by attorney general Jarrod Bleijie. | The LNP would be buoyed by a “huge” campaign budget and the repeal of limits on electoral spending by attorney general Jarrod Bleijie. |
| Orr said the Newman government “also hope to catch the smaller parties off guard Although the polls are close, the government feels they aren’t in ‘catch up’ mode,” he said. “Rather they are in ‘catch the others on the hop’ mode. Such tactical ‘snap’ polls are a perfect argument for a fixed term parliament.” | Orr said the Newman government “also hope to catch the smaller parties off guard Although the polls are close, the government feels they aren’t in ‘catch up’ mode,” he said. “Rather they are in ‘catch the others on the hop’ mode. Such tactical ‘snap’ polls are a perfect argument for a fixed term parliament.” |
| Williams said there were as many as four contenders to replace Newman as leader but only one with the numbers currently in the party room: treasurer Tim Nicholls. | Williams said there were as many as four contenders to replace Newman as leader but only one with the numbers currently in the party room: treasurer Tim Nicholls. |
| Another contender was acting treasurer Scott Emerson, who attacked Palaszczuk for “going soft” on outlaw motorcycle gangs in the first government statement after poll speculation took shape on Tuesday morning – a signal of what is to be one of the government’s central campaign issues. | Another contender was acting treasurer Scott Emerson, who attacked Palaszczuk for “going soft” on outlaw motorcycle gangs in the first government statement after poll speculation took shape on Tuesday morning – a signal of what is to be one of the government’s central campaign issues. |
| Emerson challenged Palaszczuk, whose party has vowed to repeal contentious criminal gang laws including the Vicious Lawless Association Disestablishment act, to “rule out accepting donations or support from criminal motorcycle groups”. | Emerson challenged Palaszczuk, whose party has vowed to repeal contentious criminal gang laws including the Vicious Lawless Association Disestablishment act, to “rule out accepting donations or support from criminal motorcycle groups”. |
| “If criminal motorcycle gangs are supporting Labor, then Ms Palaszczuk needs to detail what that level of support means,” Emerson said. | “If criminal motorcycle gangs are supporting Labor, then Ms Palaszczuk needs to detail what that level of support means,” Emerson said. |
| “We are the first state in Australia to effectively deal with the criminal gang problems and that wouldn’t have happened without the current tough legislation. | “We are the first state in Australia to effectively deal with the criminal gang problems and that wouldn’t have happened without the current tough legislation. |
| “This work would be undone if Labor carried through with their threat to replace these laws.” | “This work would be undone if Labor carried through with their threat to replace these laws.” |
| Williams said the public stance had softened on the key issues of the bikie laws and the LNP’s plans to privatise power and port infrastructure, which would have played out “absolutely disastrously” for the government at the ballot box “six months ago”. | Williams said the public stance had softened on the key issues of the bikie laws and the LNP’s plans to privatise power and port infrastructure, which would have played out “absolutely disastrously” for the government at the ballot box “six months ago”. |
| “Those things alone could have been enough to lose the government the election,” he said. | “Those things alone could have been enough to lose the government the election,” he said. |
| “There’s no doubt both those policies were extremely unpopular [but] have become less unpopular. It seems that among the more politically apathetic, because the sting has come out of the headlines, [the LNP] would have clawed some support back.” | “There’s no doubt both those policies were extremely unpopular [but] have become less unpopular. It seems that among the more politically apathetic, because the sting has come out of the headlines, [the LNP] would have clawed some support back.” |
| Williams put the chances of a Labor victory at 10%, with a “much more likely” scenario a hung parliament, with the LNP relying on conservative independents. | Williams put the chances of a Labor victory at 10%, with a “much more likely” scenario a hung parliament, with the LNP relying on conservative independents. |
| “I’m thinking a 10% swing [against the government] and a lot of Brisbane and north Queensland seats [to change hands],” he said. | “I’m thinking a 10% swing [against the government] and a lot of Brisbane and north Queensland seats [to change hands],” he said. |
| Carmody’s widely criticised elevation to the role – panned by fellow judges and after he was seen to be a supportive jurist for the LNP’s controversial bikie laws – was emblematic of the political brawls Newman was willing to provoke to push enforce the crackdown. | Carmody’s widely criticised elevation to the role – panned by fellow judges and after he was seen to be a supportive jurist for the LNP’s controversial bikie laws – was emblematic of the political brawls Newman was willing to provoke to push enforce the crackdown. |
| Palaszczuk said the Newman government had “divided Queensland”. She told ABC radio that her party would be fighting “every day to regain the trust of Queenslanders ... [who] deserve better”. | Palaszczuk said the Newman government had “divided Queensland”. She told ABC radio that her party would be fighting “every day to regain the trust of Queenslanders ... [who] deserve better”. |