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| Meeting of World Leaders in Belarus Aims to Address Ukraine Conflict | Meeting of World Leaders in Belarus Aims to Address Ukraine Conflict |
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| MINSK, Belarus — The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany will gather here late Wednesday to try to negotiate a peace agreement for Ukraine, hoping to quiet a year-old conflict that has set off a major power confrontation and that threatens to destabilize the European continent. | MINSK, Belarus — The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany will gather here late Wednesday to try to negotiate a peace agreement for Ukraine, hoping to quiet a year-old conflict that has set off a major power confrontation and that threatens to destabilize the European continent. |
| In announcing that President François Hollande of France would travel to Minsk, the capital of Belarus, his office said in a statement that he and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, hoped to “try everything” to forge a lasting agreement. | In announcing that President François Hollande of France would travel to Minsk, the capital of Belarus, his office said in a statement that he and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, hoped to “try everything” to forge a lasting agreement. |
| Negotiations on what exactly the leaders would discuss continued even as the various governments announced that their leaders were heading to Minsk. The talks are based on a 12-point peace agreement called the Minsk Protocol, signed here in September but violated almost immediately. | Negotiations on what exactly the leaders would discuss continued even as the various governments announced that their leaders were heading to Minsk. The talks are based on a 12-point peace agreement called the Minsk Protocol, signed here in September but violated almost immediately. |
| A group of negotiators from Russia and Ukraine, as well as from the separatist strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk, were trying to make the final arrangements for a cease-fire and the size of a demilitarized zone, according to a Ukrainian diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the talks. | A group of negotiators from Russia and Ukraine, as well as from the separatist strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk, were trying to make the final arrangements for a cease-fire and the size of a demilitarized zone, according to a Ukrainian diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the talks. |
| The meeting will later focus on the future political relationship between Kiev and Ukraine’s separatist regions, he said, and the positions of the various parties remained somewhat opaque. | |
| Before leaving for Minsk, President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine told his cabinet that the meeting would be his most important one since he became president last June. Both peace and continued war were possible, he said, warning that if the session failed and fighting in the east continued to escalate, he might impose martial law nationwide. | Before leaving for Minsk, President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine told his cabinet that the meeting would be his most important one since he became president last June. Both peace and continued war were possible, he said, warning that if the session failed and fighting in the east continued to escalate, he might impose martial law nationwide. |
| “We must be ready for both options, for peace and for the country’s protection,” local news reports quoted Mr. Poroshenko as saying. | “We must be ready for both options, for peace and for the country’s protection,” local news reports quoted Mr. Poroshenko as saying. |
| The Ukrainian leader repeated a few of Kiev’s central demands, which highlighted the gulf between its position and that of Moscow. Ukraine endorsed decentralization but not federalization, he said, noting that the separatist regions could be granted rights similar to ones in autonomous communities in Russia. | |
| In Moscow, Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said at a news conference that talks among experts had made “noticeable progress.” | In Moscow, Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said at a news conference that talks among experts had made “noticeable progress.” |
| But he also took exception with certain Ukrainian positions, suggesting that a truce, the withdrawal of heavy weaponry and the beginning of a political process, as well as the restoration of economic ties between Kiev and the separatist regions, were far more important than control over the border. | But he also took exception with certain Ukrainian positions, suggesting that a truce, the withdrawal of heavy weaponry and the beginning of a political process, as well as the restoration of economic ties between Kiev and the separatist regions, were far more important than control over the border. |
| Ms. Merkel has emphasized repeatedly since she announced the renewed peace initiative last week that the chances of success were slim, even after she and Mr. Hollande met with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Moscow and with Mr. Poroshenko in Kiev on Friday. But she said the effort would continue given the civilian death toll in the conflict, which the United Nations has estimated at more than 5,400 since the fighting first erupted last spring. | Ms. Merkel has emphasized repeatedly since she announced the renewed peace initiative last week that the chances of success were slim, even after she and Mr. Hollande met with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Moscow and with Mr. Poroshenko in Kiev on Friday. But she said the effort would continue given the civilian death toll in the conflict, which the United Nations has estimated at more than 5,400 since the fighting first erupted last spring. |
| In southeast Ukraine on Wednesday, fighting continued between pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian military units over the crucial rail hub of Debaltseve, northeast of the rebel stronghold of Donetsk. | In southeast Ukraine on Wednesday, fighting continued between pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian military units over the crucial rail hub of Debaltseve, northeast of the rebel stronghold of Donetsk. |
| Officials in Kiev said 19 Ukrainian troops were killed in fighting over the past 24 hours, and 78 were wounded. Rebels said three people had died in shelling overnight. Rebel forces have been jockeying for control of the city for seven months, although fighting has escalated in recent days. | |
| The death toll from a rocket attack on Tuesday on the industrial city of Kramatorsk, about 50 miles northwest of Debaltseve, rose to 16. The city, which is also home to a major Ukrainian military base, had not experienced fighting since last summer. | |
| In Donetsk, shells fell shortly after 7 a.m. not far from the city center. Residents who were reached by telephone said the shells first hit near the Donetsk Metallurgical Plant and then, a few minutes later, smashed through the roof of a bus depot a few blocks away. Rebel leaders said six people died in the blasts. The reason the death toll was not higher in the normally crowded depot, the residents said, was that the earlier blasts at the plant had scared away the crowds. | |
| The crux of the problem for the talks in Belarus lies in the fact that the goals for all sides are so disparate. | The crux of the problem for the talks in Belarus lies in the fact that the goals for all sides are so disparate. |
| Ukraine wants the complete disarmament of the separatists and the withdrawal of Russian troops and armaments — which both the Kremlin and the rebels continue to deny were ever sent. Mr. Putin has said that Russian soldiers who were “on vacation” had joined the fighting in southeast Ukraine. But it is unlikely the separatists could have held out this long, much less gone on the offensive, without significant Russian support in men and matériel. | Ukraine wants the complete disarmament of the separatists and the withdrawal of Russian troops and armaments — which both the Kremlin and the rebels continue to deny were ever sent. Mr. Putin has said that Russian soldiers who were “on vacation” had joined the fighting in southeast Ukraine. But it is unlikely the separatists could have held out this long, much less gone on the offensive, without significant Russian support in men and matériel. |
| Ukraine has promised some degree of self-rule to the breakaway areas, but it wants to control the lengthy Ukrainian-Russian border. It also seeks a full exchange of prisoners. | Ukraine has promised some degree of self-rule to the breakaway areas, but it wants to control the lengthy Ukrainian-Russian border. It also seeks a full exchange of prisoners. |
| The rebel areas want to exist separately from the rest of Ukraine and to keep their weapons, and they are demanding amnesty for their leaders. But they also want Ukraine to resume pension payments and other forms of financial support. They are also pushing for a buffer zone wide enough that the main cities cannot be shelled by Ukrainian forces. | The rebel areas want to exist separately from the rest of Ukraine and to keep their weapons, and they are demanding amnesty for their leaders. But they also want Ukraine to resume pension payments and other forms of financial support. They are also pushing for a buffer zone wide enough that the main cities cannot be shelled by Ukrainian forces. |
| One possible point of contention in the talks is where the cease-fire line will fall, given that the rebels have captured more than 200 square miles of territory since the September agreement. Ukraine has insisted that the line drawn in that agreement be maintained, but the separatists are unlikely to give back territory that makes the borders of the separatist regions easier to defend. | One possible point of contention in the talks is where the cease-fire line will fall, given that the rebels have captured more than 200 square miles of territory since the September agreement. Ukraine has insisted that the line drawn in that agreement be maintained, but the separatists are unlikely to give back territory that makes the borders of the separatist regions easier to defend. |
| Mr. Putin has tried to distance Russia from the conflict, while also laying down demands that could lead to its settlement. Moscow has emphasized that Ukraine should create a federal system that would allow for separatist areas to have their own foreign and economic policies, and would protect the Russian language and culture, while Kiev pays the bills. | Mr. Putin has tried to distance Russia from the conflict, while also laying down demands that could lead to its settlement. Moscow has emphasized that Ukraine should create a federal system that would allow for separatist areas to have their own foreign and economic policies, and would protect the Russian language and culture, while Kiev pays the bills. |
| Russia also plans to keep Crimea, which it annexed in March last year, and has called on the Ukrainian Army to withdraw from the southeast. | |
| Europe seeks to keep Ukraine whole, to undermine the idea that any post-World War II borders could be altered by force. After Ms. Merkel, speaking last week, recalled her childhood in East Germany, some analysts suggested that she envisioned a solution for Ukraine that included a European-oriented west Ukraine and a Russian-influenced east, with some manner of robust, peaceful separation between them. | |
| The Europeans also seek a much wider demilitarized zone than the 30 kilometers, or 19 miles, first agreed by the main negotiators in a separate annex to the cease-fire agreement of September. | The Europeans also seek a much wider demilitarized zone than the 30 kilometers, or 19 miles, first agreed by the main negotiators in a separate annex to the cease-fire agreement of September. |
| The United States has threatened to arm Ukraine, although President Obama said on Monday that Washington would not decide on the matter until the outcome of the summit meeting in Minsk was clear. | The United States has threatened to arm Ukraine, although President Obama said on Monday that Washington would not decide on the matter until the outcome of the summit meeting in Minsk was clear. |
| The White House said late Tuesday that Mr. Obama called Mr. Putin to urge him to accept the French and German effort to end the fighting in Ukraine. The statement from the White House said Mr. Obama had warned Mr. Putin that “If Russia continues its aggressive actions in Ukraine, including by sending troops, weapons and financing to support the separatists, the costs for Russia will rise.” | The White House said late Tuesday that Mr. Obama called Mr. Putin to urge him to accept the French and German effort to end the fighting in Ukraine. The statement from the White House said Mr. Obama had warned Mr. Putin that “If Russia continues its aggressive actions in Ukraine, including by sending troops, weapons and financing to support the separatists, the costs for Russia will rise.” |
| A Kremlin statement about the telephone call said Mr. Putin had laid out Russia’s proposals to end the conflict and that the two men had “highlighted the importance of resolving the domestic Ukrainian crisis via political dialogue” and an immediate cease-fire. | A Kremlin statement about the telephone call said Mr. Putin had laid out Russia’s proposals to end the conflict and that the two men had “highlighted the importance of resolving the domestic Ukrainian crisis via political dialogue” and an immediate cease-fire. |
| The outcome of the summit meeting in Minsk depends largely on what Russia is willing to offer and what the Ukrainian president can accept. The two sides are reeling economically, with Kiev nearly bankrupt and Moscow trying to survive the collapse in oil prices and budget problems compounded by Western economic sanctions. | The outcome of the summit meeting in Minsk depends largely on what Russia is willing to offer and what the Ukrainian president can accept. The two sides are reeling economically, with Kiev nearly bankrupt and Moscow trying to survive the collapse in oil prices and budget problems compounded by Western economic sanctions. |
| The general view is that Moscow wants to create a frozen conflict in Ukraine much like ones in the Transnistria region in Moldova, and in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia. The regions were wrenched away from their countries but not incorporated into Russia, and could be used to stir unrest at any time. | |
| Moscow wants the means to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, and preferably the European Union as well. But since the revolution fomented by Ukrainians last February was partly inspired by the demand to draw closer to Europe, and hundreds of soldiers have died defending that goal, the question is whether Mr. Poroshenko can sell it. | |
| “The question is not what the Russians want, but what the Ukrainians can accept,” said Dmitri Trenin, the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. | “The question is not what the Russians want, but what the Ukrainians can accept,” said Dmitri Trenin, the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. |
| “The strategy is to keep Crimea Russian and to keep eastern Ukraine as a center of resistance to the nationalist, anti-Russian tendencies which now prevail in Kiev,” he said. “The game is a long one — it will not end this month, nor this year.” | “The strategy is to keep Crimea Russian and to keep eastern Ukraine as a center of resistance to the nationalist, anti-Russian tendencies which now prevail in Kiev,” he said. “The game is a long one — it will not end this month, nor this year.” |