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World Leaders Meet in Belarus to Negotiate Cease-Fire in Ukraine World Leaders Meet in Belarus to Negotiate Cease-Fire in Ukraine
(about 9 hours later)
MINSK, Belarus — The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany gathered here late Wednesday in a last-ditch effort to negotiate a peace agreement for Ukraine and quiet an escalating, year-old conflict that threatens to destabilize the European continent. MINSK, Belarus — The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany negotiated long into the night on Wednesday, locked in a tough effort to defuse the escalating conflict in eastern Ukraine, though there was little indication that whatever peace deal emerged from these talks would last any longer than a previous truce in September.
President François Hollande of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany arrived in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, joining President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Ukraine’s president Petro O. Poroshenko, after a day of some of the heaviest fighting of the war to date. The four leaders — Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Presidents François Hollande of France, Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine — remained tight lipped as the negotiations dragged on for more than five hours, having started around 8 p.m. in the cavernous marble halls of this capital’s Independence Palace.
The Ukrainian government reported that 19 of its soldiers had been killed and 78 wounded in the last 24 hours of fighting with Russian-backed separatists around the contested town of Debaltseve in southeastern Ukraine. The talks came against a backdrop of some of the worst violence since the crisis erupted a year ago as Mr. Putin and the rebels he has backed raised the pressure on Ukraine to make concessions in the peace talks. The Ukrainian government reported that 19 of its soldiers had been killed and 78 wounded in the last 24 hours of fighting with Russian-backed separatists around the contested town of Debaltseve in southeastern Ukraine.
“The entire world is waiting to see whether the situation moves toward de-escalation, weapons pullback, cease-fire or spins out of control,” Mr. Poroshenko said upon arriving in Minsk.“The entire world is waiting to see whether the situation moves toward de-escalation, weapons pullback, cease-fire or spins out of control,” Mr. Poroshenko said upon arriving in Minsk.
Negotiations on what exactly would be discussed continued even as the various governments announced that their leaders were heading to Minsk. The talks are based on a 12-point peace agreement called the Minsk Protocol, signed here in September but violated almost immediately. Senior aides who participated in the talks refused to discuss their progress in any detail, though the Russian negotiators seemed more upbeat than the Ukrainians. At one point, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, emerged from the negotiating room and said, “The talks are very active, better than super.” Andrei Zhigulin, a spokesman for Mr. Poroshenko, merely said there was no easy way to make peace.
The broad outlines of an agreement were clear enough, involving a cease-fire, the withdrawal of heavy weapons, the creation of a demilitarized zone and a degree of autonomy for the rebel-controlled regions of eastern Ukraine. But the details, such as where to draw the demilitarized zone, the degree of autonomy and Ukraine's control of its border with Russia, remained contentious. Observers were left to scan pictures of the meeting to look for omens. A series published by RT — the Kremlin-backed satellite television network — which showed Mr. Putin apparently snapping a green plastic pen in half was taken as testament of the intensity of the proceedings.
Before leaving for Minsk, Mr. Poroshenko told his cabinet that the meeting would be his most important since becoming president last June. Both peace and continued war were possible, he said, warning that if the session failed and fighting in the east continued to escalate, he might impose martial law nationwide, which could jeopardize a $40 billion aid package being negotiated with Western lenders. The Russian ambassador to Belarus, Aleksandr Surikov, said that negotiators for the rebels and the two governments were meeting separately to agree on the logistics of the truce, and the summit meeting leaders would then discuss how to implement it, according to the RIA Novosti news agency. There were also unconfirmed reports that the talks would end with only a joint declaration, a traditional diplomatic formula to try to paper over failure.
“We must be ready for both options, for peace and for the country’s protection,” local news reports quoted Mr. Poroshenko as saying. The talks are based on a 12-point peace deal called the Minsk Protocol, signed here in September but violated almost immediately. The goals of any deal have long been apparent, including a cease-fire, the withdrawal of heavy weapons to create a demilitarized zone and a degree of autonomy for the rebel-controlled regions. But the details, such as where to draw the demilitarized zone, the degree of autonomy and Ukraine’s control of its border with Russia, remained contentious.
Before leaving for Minsk, Mr. Poroshenko told his cabinet that both peace and continued war were possible. He warned that if the session failed and fighting in the east continued to escalate, he might impose martial law nationwide, which could jeopardize a $40 billion aid package being negotiated with Western lenders.
The Ukrainian leader repeated a few of Kiev’s central demands, which underscored the gulf between its position and that of Moscow. Ukraine endorsed decentralization but not federalization, he said, noting that the separatist regions could be granted rights similar to those in autonomous communities in Russia.The Ukrainian leader repeated a few of Kiev’s central demands, which underscored the gulf between its position and that of Moscow. Ukraine endorsed decentralization but not federalization, he said, noting that the separatist regions could be granted rights similar to those in autonomous communities in Russia.
In Moscow, Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said at a news conference that talks among experts had made “noticeable progress.” In Moscow, before he flew to Minsk, Mr. Lavrov took exception to certain Ukrainian positions, suggesting that a truce, the withdrawal of heavy weaponry and the beginning of a political process, as well as the restoration of economic ties between Kiev and the separatist regions, were far more important than control over the border.
But he also took exception to certain Ukrainian positions, suggesting that a truce, the withdrawal of heavy weaponry and the beginning of a political process, as well as the restoration of economic ties between Kiev and the separatist regions, were far more important than control over the border. Ms. Merkel has emphasized repeatedly that she regards the chances of success in the talks as slim, even after she and Mr. Hollande met with Mr. Putin in Moscow and with Mr. Poroshenko in Kiev on Friday. But she said the effort would continue given the daily rise in the civilian death toll from the conflict, which the United Nations has estimated at more than 5,400 since last spring.
Ms. Merkel has emphasized repeatedly that she regards the chances of success in the talks as slim, even after she and Mr. Hollande met with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Moscow and with Mr. Poroshenko in Kiev on Friday. But she said the effort would continue given the civilian death toll in the conflict, which the United Nations has estimated at more than 5,400 since violence erupted last spring. In Germany, Norbert Roettgen, the chairman of the foreign affairs committee in Germany’s Parliament, said the talks would either come to naught or produce a retread of the original Minsk cease-fire agreement in September that might only cement the fact that the first version failed.
As fighting raged in eastern Ukraine, the authorities said the death toll from a rocket attack on Tuesday on the industrial city of Kramatorsk, about 50 miles northwest of Debaltseve, had risen to 16. The city, which is also home to a major Ukrainian military base, had not experienced fighting since last summer. ”I think there will either be nothing, because Putin unfortunately tactically has the upper hand in the short term,” he said, adding that Mr. Poroshenko had limited room to maneuver
In Donetsk, shells fell shortly after 7 a.m. not far from the city center. Residents who were reached by telephone said the shells first hit near the Donetsk Metallurgical Plant and then, a few minutes later, smashed through the roof of a bus depot a few blocks away. Rebel leaders said six people died in the blasts. The reason the death toll was not higher in the normally crowded depot, the residents said, was that the earlier blasts at the plant had scared away the crowds. “Or there will be a new cease-fire, a second Minsk, which would include a significant shift of the demarcation line to the West,” Mr. Roettgen said. “The violation of Minsk one would then be honored in Minsk two, and whether Putin would then keep to Minsk two, there are considerable doubts.”
Although the European leaders and Mr. Putin had said they would not come to Minsk unless the prospects of reaching a deal were strong, the sides still have considerable differences to bridge. The lack of trust between the two sides is a major stumbling block to reach any accord, not to mention the continuing violence.
Ukraine wants the complete disarmament of the separatists and the withdrawal of Russian troops and armaments — which both the Kremlin and the rebels continue to deny were ever sent. Russian officials have said that any Russian soldiers who joined the fighting were adventurers who were “on vacation.” But it is unlikely the separatists could have held out this long, much less gone on the offensive, without significant Russian support in men, money and matériel. In Donetsk, shells fell shortly after 7 a.m. not far from the city center. Residents who were reached by telephone said the shells first hit near the Donetsk Metallurgical Plant and then, a few minutes later, smashed through the roof of a bus depot a few blocks away. Rebel leaders said six people died in the blasts.
Although the European leaders and Mr. Putin had said they would not come to Minsk unless the prospects of reaching a deal were strong, the sides still needed to bridge considerable differences. Ukraine wants the complete disarmament of the separatists and the withdrawal of Russian troops and armaments — which both the Kremlin and the rebels continue to deny were ever sent. It is unlikely, however, that the separatists could have held out this long, much less gone on the offensive, without significant Russian support in men, money and matériel.
Ukraine has promised some degree of self-rule to the breakaway areas, but it wants to control the lengthy border with Russia. It also seeks a full exchange of prisoners.Ukraine has promised some degree of self-rule to the breakaway areas, but it wants to control the lengthy border with Russia. It also seeks a full exchange of prisoners.
The rebel areas want to exist separately from the rest of Ukraine and to keep their weapons, and they are demanding amnesty for their leaders. They also want Ukraine to resume pension payments and other forms of financial support, while pushing for a buffer zone wide enough that the main cities cannot be shelled by Ukrainian forces. The rebel areas are pressing to exist separately from the rest of Ukraine and to keep their weapons, and they are demanding amnesty for their leaders. They also want Ukraine to resume pension payments and other forms of financial support, while pushing for a buffer zone wide enough that the main cities cannot be shelled by Ukrainian forces.
One possible point of contention in the talks is where the cease-fire line will fall, given that the rebels have captured more than 200 square miles of territory since the September agreement. Ukraine has insisted on reestablishing that line, but the separatists are unlikely to give back the territory because it makes their borders easier to defend. One possible point of contention in the talks is where the cease-fire line will fall, given that the rebels have captured more than 200 square miles of territory since the September agreement. Ukraine has insisted on re-establishing that line.
Mr. Putin has tried to distance Russia from the conflict, while also laying down demands that could lead to its settlement. Moscow has emphasized that Ukraine should create a federal system that would allow separatist areas to have their own foreign and economic policies, and would protect the Russian language and culture, while Kiev pays the bills. Mr. Putin has tried to distance Russia from the conflict, while also laying down settlement demands. Moscow has emphasized that Ukraine should create a federal system that would allow separatist areas to have their own foreign and economic policies, and would protect the Russian language and culture, while Kiev pays the bills. Russia also plans to keep Crimea, which it annexed in March, and has called on the Ukrainian Army to withdraw from the southeast.
Russia also plans to keep Crimea, which it annexed in March, and has called on the Ukrainian Army to withdraw from the southeast.
Europe seeks to keep Ukraine whole, to preserve the postwar principle that no borders can be altered by force. After Ms. Merkel, speaking last week, recalled her childhood in East Germany, some analysts suggested that she envisioned a solution for Ukraine that included a European-oriented west Ukraine and a Russian-influenced east, with some manner of robust, peaceful separation between them.Europe seeks to keep Ukraine whole, to preserve the postwar principle that no borders can be altered by force. After Ms. Merkel, speaking last week, recalled her childhood in East Germany, some analysts suggested that she envisioned a solution for Ukraine that included a European-oriented west Ukraine and a Russian-influenced east, with some manner of robust, peaceful separation between them.
The Europeans also seek a much wider demilitarized zone than the 30 kilometers, or 19 miles, first agreed to by the main negotiators in a separate annex to the September cease-fire agreement. The United States has threatened to arm Ukraine, although President Obama said Monday that Washington would not decide on the matter until the outcome of the summit meeting in Minsk was clear.
The United States has threatened to arm Ukraine, although President Obama said on Monday that Washington would not decide on the matter until the outcome of the summit meeting in Minsk was clear. The outcome in Minsk depends largely on what Russia is willing to offer and what the Ukrainian president can sell to a public not eager for compromise. The two sides are reeling economically, with Kiev nearly bankrupt and Moscow trying to survive the collapse in oil prices and attendant budget problems, compounded by Western economic sanctions.
European nations have consistently rejected the idea of arming Ukraine, even with defensive weapons, saying that economic sanctions are far more effective. Many analysts expect Moscow wants to create a frozen conflict in Ukraine like ones in the Transnistria region in Moldova and in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia. Those enclaves were wrenched from their countries but not incorporated into Russia, and could be used to stir unrest at any time.
”The only sector where Putin has nothing to fear is arms,” Paolo Gentiloni, the foreign minister of Italy, said during an interview with The New York Times Editorial Board on Wednesday. “Russia is weak in many sectors, but very strong in arms.” Moscow would then have the means to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, and preferably the European Union as well. But since the revolution fomented by Ukrainians last February was partly inspired by the demand to draw closer to Europe, and hundreds of soldiers have died defending that goal, it is not clear that Mr. Poroshenko can sell it.
Moreoever, he said of Mr. Putin, any armaments sent to Ukraine by the United States “could support his narrative” that Russia has legitimate reasons to fear Western military encroachment on its borders. “The question is not what the Russians want, but what the Ukrainians can accept,” said Dmitri V. Trenin, the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. “The strategy is to keep Crimea Russian and to keep eastern Ukraine as a center of resistance to the nationalist, anti-Russian tendencies which now prevail in Kiev,” he said. “The game is a long one. It will not end this month, nor this year.”
The outcome in Minsk depends largely on what Russia is willing to offer and what the Ukrainian president can accept. The two sides are reeling economically, with Kiev nearly bankrupt and Moscow trying to survive the collapse in oil prices and attendant budget problems, compounded by Western economic sanctions.
The general view is that Moscow wants to create a frozen conflict in Ukraine much like ones in the Transnistria region in Moldova and in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia. Those enclaves were wrenched from their countries but not incorporated into Russia, and could be used to stir unrest at any time.
Moscow wants the means to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, and preferably the European Union as well. But since the revolution fomented by Ukrainians last February was partly inspired by the demand to draw closer to Europe, and hundreds of soldiers have died defending that goal, the question is whether Mr. Poroshenko can sell it.
“The question is not what the Russians want, but what the Ukrainians can accept,” said Dmitri Trenin, the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.
“The strategy is to keep Crimea Russian and to keep eastern Ukraine as a center of resistance to the nationalist, anti-Russian tendencies which now prevail in Kiev,” he said. “The game is a long one. It will not end this month, nor this year.”