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Version 10 Version 11
Countdown to the budget – question time live Labor presses government on foreign aid and budget – question time live
(35 minutes later)
2.33pm AEST03:33
A question from the Greens deputy leader Adam Bandt.
Q: My question is to the prime minister. When the Greens first raised issues of rape and child abuse in the Nauruan detention facility, the immigration minister said staff from Save The Children were coaching detainees to make these stories up. Given that the Moss report finds compelling evidence of rape and abuse but no evidence of wrongdoing by Save The Children staff, when will you apologise to Save The Children and its workers?
And crucially, how much longer will you leave the 107 children currently in Nauru locked up and exposed to abuse?
Tony Abbott says it is appalling and reprehensible that misconduct of a grievous type seems to have taken place at this centre.
It is absolutely appalling that this has happened. And we are working with the government of Nauru, which runs the centre, to try to ensure that this kind of thing is appropriately dealt with, that it’s punished, and that it never happens again.
The prime minister says it would be easier to take Bandt’s inquiry seriously if the Greens were prepared to give credit where credit is due.
This government has stopped the boats. In stopping the boats, we have stopped the deaths at sea and in stopping the boats we have allowed the children to leave detention.
No word on when Save The Children will get that apology.
2.28pm AEST03:28
Four word slogans, three word achievements
Labor’s families spokesperson Jenny Macklin has a question for Tony Abbott, which Abbott bats to Scott Morrison.
Q: Given the the government has ruled out further cuts to foreign aid, will the (minister) also rule out increasing the pension age to the highest in the developed world?
Scott Morrison:
As those opposite would know, they were the ones who originally put forward measures through this parliament to increase the pension age to 67 – and they did that with the support of those on this side of the chamber when we sat in opposition, because we understood the need to ensure that we had a sustainable safety net for future Australians.
Now they find themselves in opposition, they seem to think they have to run out of ideas.
Today the leader of the opposition has launched a four-word slogan hand he has put it into a web site. Let me tell you the difference between the four-word slogans of those opposite and the three-word achievements of this government.
We have stopped the boats. We have scrapped the carbon tax. We have got rid of the mining tax and we have halved the trajectory of Labor’s debt.
2.19pm AEST03:19
Bill Shorten:
Q: Given that the government has ruled out further cuts to foreign aid, will the prime minister also rule out his $80-a-week cut to pensions?
Tony Abbott:
Madam Speaker, this is a government which is putting pensions up, and this government will put pensions up twice a year, every year.
That’s what we’ll do.
2.15pm AEST03:15
The Australian aid budget is under pressure and there is one reason it is under pressure. The Australian Labor party.
Spare me the crocodile tears! If you’re concerned about the aid budget, look into the mirror.
This is the foreign minister Julie Bishop attempting to slap down a cheeky question from Labor’s Tanya Plibersek. Plibersek wanted to know if the aid budget was ok, and whether she had any advice for colleagues wanting to avoid budget cuts.
Bishop, who sounds a bit hoarse, went the shout.
2.07pm AEST03:07
Question time
There was no time for a lunchtime summary today – apologies – the tide is taking us relentlessly towards question time. The hour of glower is opening with a tribute to Lee Kuan Yew, who died Monday, aged 91.
Tony Abbott:
In the 1980s, when Singapore was surging ahead, and Australia risked stagnating, he said that we risked ending up, to use that phrase, the poor white trash of Asia. Madam Speaker, that phrase stung, because we feared that it might be true.
I have to say that a quarter century of reform under Bob Hawke and Paul Keating and then under John Howard and Peter Costello restored our position. But if we are to avoid his prophecy, the challenge for this generation is to ensure that the age of reform in this country has been merely interrupted not ended.
2.00pm AEST03:002.00pm AEST03:00
Very quickly before question time. Mike, bless him, popped down to that book launch that was first a minority policy launch and then simply a book launch. The book in question is called Minority Policy. Clear? No. Let’s move on in any case.Very quickly before question time. Mike, bless him, popped down to that book launch that was first a minority policy launch and then simply a book launch. The book in question is called Minority Policy. Clear? No. Let’s move on in any case.
Nick Xenophon is always quick with the zingers.Nick Xenophon is always quick with the zingers.
We should form a party and call it Palmer or Xenophon – the acronym would work well.We should form a party and call it Palmer or Xenophon – the acronym would work well.
(If you don’t get it, think of a word that rhymes with socks. Clear? No. Let’s move on in any case.)(If you don’t get it, think of a word that rhymes with socks. Clear? No. Let’s move on in any case.)
1.51pm AEST02:511.51pm AEST02:51
A couple of quick fact checks on Stephen Conroy’s chamber contribution right now. He says the bill being debated now is of a wholly different character than the original proposal brought forward by the government. The bill has been amended, that is true, and the safeguards imposed have certainly improved it. But a wholly different character is a stretch on my analysis. As is Conroy’s statement that the new Public Interest Advocate – new appointees who will speak on behalf of journalists if police require warrants to access their metadata – are required by this legislation to walk in the shoes of the journalist. They are not, actually.A couple of quick fact checks on Stephen Conroy’s chamber contribution right now. He says the bill being debated now is of a wholly different character than the original proposal brought forward by the government. The bill has been amended, that is true, and the safeguards imposed have certainly improved it. But a wholly different character is a stretch on my analysis. As is Conroy’s statement that the new Public Interest Advocate – new appointees who will speak on behalf of journalists if police require warrants to access their metadata – are required by this legislation to walk in the shoes of the journalist. They are not, actually.
1.35pm AEST02:351.35pm AEST02:35
A Labor spokesperson has rung to inform me my working knowledge of Penny Wong is out of date. Wong (Labor’s senate leader) is no longer on parliament’s joint intelligence committee. She left in November. Complete news to me – the last time I sat in on a hearing Wong was at the table. But now she’s zipped. I’ll check whether she plans to participate in the debate. The shadow defence minister Stephen Conroy is up now, talking about balancing freedoms.A Labor spokesperson has rung to inform me my working knowledge of Penny Wong is out of date. Wong (Labor’s senate leader) is no longer on parliament’s joint intelligence committee. She left in November. Complete news to me – the last time I sat in on a hearing Wong was at the table. But now she’s zipped. I’ll check whether she plans to participate in the debate. The shadow defence minister Stephen Conroy is up now, talking about balancing freedoms.
1.25pm AEST02:251.25pm AEST02:25
Updated at 1.36pm AESTUpdated at 1.36pm AEST
1.22pm AEST02:221.22pm AEST02:22
Just a quick update – same sex marriage was not discussed in today’s Coalition partyroom. It is not yet clear why, but as facts emerge, I’ll share them. Couple of quick bullet points from today’s briefing, courtesy of my colleague Lenore Taylor.Just a quick update – same sex marriage was not discussed in today’s Coalition partyroom. It is not yet clear why, but as facts emerge, I’ll share them. Couple of quick bullet points from today’s briefing, courtesy of my colleague Lenore Taylor.
Tony Abbott described Bill Shorten as a litany of screeching complaints. One MP launched a complaint of his or her own: there was a gripe about not allowing enough government speakers in yesterday’s condolence debate marking the passing of Malcolm Fraser. The MP noted the party has only itself to blame if (it) loses the history wars.Tony Abbott described Bill Shorten as a litany of screeching complaints. One MP launched a complaint of his or her own: there was a gripe about not allowing enough government speakers in yesterday’s condolence debate marking the passing of Malcolm Fraser. The MP noted the party has only itself to blame if (it) loses the history wars.
1.14pm AEST02:141.14pm AEST02:14
Ludlam is telling people how to get around the proposed metadata regime – use an offshore provider: Gmail, Facebook messaging. It’s perfectly legal, he says. Anonymity is not illegal, encryption is not illegal, circumvention is not illegal, Ludlam says. He says citizens should take their power back.Ludlam is telling people how to get around the proposed metadata regime – use an offshore provider: Gmail, Facebook messaging. It’s perfectly legal, he says. Anonymity is not illegal, encryption is not illegal, circumvention is not illegal, Ludlam says. He says citizens should take their power back.
Ludlam is now giving out Bill Shorten’s office number – do give him a call, the Green senator says. Raise your objections.Ludlam is now giving out Bill Shorten’s office number – do give him a call, the Green senator says. Raise your objections.
If you are listening to this debate and you don’t like how it ends, change the two party system once and for all.If you are listening to this debate and you don’t like how it ends, change the two party system once and for all.
1.06pm AEST02:061.06pm AEST02:06
Two words: national security. All that it takes for Labor to flop into a state of bipartisanship.Two words: national security. All that it takes for Labor to flop into a state of bipartisanship.
Greens senator Scott Ludlam. I just note in passing – strange that Labor’s senate leader Penny Wong didn’t open the batting for Labor in today’s metadata debate. She’s on the intelligence and security committee.Greens senator Scott Ludlam. I just note in passing – strange that Labor’s senate leader Penny Wong didn’t open the batting for Labor in today’s metadata debate. She’s on the intelligence and security committee.
12.58pm AEST01:5812.58pm AEST01:58
This is a bill to entrench passive mass surveillance: LudlamThis is a bill to entrench passive mass surveillance: Ludlam
Green senator Scott Ludlam is taking his turn in the debate. He says the metadata package represents a dramatic extension of state power. It recasts the privacy boundary between citizens and the state. Anyone who tells you otherwise either does not understand technology, or is lying to your face.Green senator Scott Ludlam is taking his turn in the debate. He says the metadata package represents a dramatic extension of state power. It recasts the privacy boundary between citizens and the state. Anyone who tells you otherwise either does not understand technology, or is lying to your face.
This is a bill to entrench passive mass surveillance.This is a bill to entrench passive mass surveillance.
Updated at 1.01pm AESTUpdated at 1.01pm AEST
12.51pm AEST01:5112.51pm AEST01:51
While Jacinta Collins is facing off against the government on legislation she ultimately intends to ultimately support – I should mention that Liberal senator Brett Mason intends to retire from the red room.While Jacinta Collins is facing off against the government on legislation she ultimately intends to ultimately support – I should mention that Liberal senator Brett Mason intends to retire from the red room.
Mason has confirmed his intentions this morning. This, from his statement.Mason has confirmed his intentions this morning. This, from his statement.
I will continue to represent the interests of the people of Queensland in the immediate future but intend to resign as a Senator prior to the budget sittings in May. It has been a great honour to represent the interests of Queensland as a senator in the Australian parliament for the past fifteen and a half years.I will continue to represent the interests of the people of Queensland in the immediate future but intend to resign as a Senator prior to the budget sittings in May. It has been a great honour to represent the interests of Queensland as a senator in the Australian parliament for the past fifteen and a half years.
It was a privilege to serve in the ministries of both the Howard and Abbott governments; as parliamentary secretary for health and ageing and parliamentary secretary to the minister for foreign affairs respectively. I take this opportunity to thank my parliamentary colleagues and, in particular, the dedicated supporters of the Liberal National party for the support they have given me throughout my political career.It was a privilege to serve in the ministries of both the Howard and Abbott governments; as parliamentary secretary for health and ageing and parliamentary secretary to the minister for foreign affairs respectively. I take this opportunity to thank my parliamentary colleagues and, in particular, the dedicated supporters of the Liberal National party for the support they have given me throughout my political career.
12.47pm AEST01:4712.47pm AEST01:47
I shouldn’t assume all readers know what the metadata package is. This is the legislation that will require telcos and ISPs to keep records of the private communictions “metadata” of Australians for two years – in the event that material is needed by police or agencies.I shouldn’t assume all readers know what the metadata package is. This is the legislation that will require telcos and ISPs to keep records of the private communictions “metadata” of Australians for two years – in the event that material is needed by police or agencies.
12.39pm AEST01:3912.39pm AEST01:39
Labor, between a rock and a hard place: CollinsLabor, between a rock and a hard place: Collins
Labor’s Jacinta Collins is kicking off today’s metadata debate in the senate. She says nobody in the ALP likes rescuing the government from its own incompetence.Labor’s Jacinta Collins is kicking off today’s metadata debate in the senate. She says nobody in the ALP likes rescuing the government from its own incompetence.
Which rather begs the question, why do it?Which rather begs the question, why do it?
Collins says government incompetence and Greens hysteria has made it hard to have a sensible discussion about metadata.Collins says government incompetence and Greens hysteria has made it hard to have a sensible discussion about metadata.
Updated at 12.43pm AESTUpdated at 12.43pm AEST
12.34pm AEST01:3412.34pm AEST01:34
I’ll update you on the ACL’s “scoop” as soon as I can get to it.I’ll update you on the ACL’s “scoop” as soon as I can get to it.
The chamber bells are ringing. In the red room, the manager of government business Mitch Fifield will shortly move that the metadata bill be exempt from the cut-off. The senate is sitting later this week to deal with government business, including the metadata package. The Greens have just released sixteen amendments to the metadata package. The second reading debate is proceeding now. Metadata was orginally third on today’s list – now it’s moved to top of the pops.The chamber bells are ringing. In the red room, the manager of government business Mitch Fifield will shortly move that the metadata bill be exempt from the cut-off. The senate is sitting later this week to deal with government business, including the metadata package. The Greens have just released sixteen amendments to the metadata package. The second reading debate is proceeding now. Metadata was orginally third on today’s list – now it’s moved to top of the pops.
Updated at 12.41pm AESTUpdated at 12.41pm AEST
12.28pm AEST01:2812.28pm AEST01:28
We have the usual bedlam all at once on Tuesday.We have the usual bedlam all at once on Tuesday.
The Australian Christian Lobby is welcoming news that hasn’t yet broken yet.The Australian Christian Lobby is welcoming news that hasn’t yet broken yet.
The Australian Christian Lobby has welcomed news that the Liberal party will continue to vote as one on marriage. With advocates for redefining marriage aggressively lobbying Liberal MPs and senators ahead of this morning’s party room meeting, more than 20,000 Australians responded by emailing Liberal parliamentarians urging them to continue to vote as one.The Australian Christian Lobby has welcomed news that the Liberal party will continue to vote as one on marriage. With advocates for redefining marriage aggressively lobbying Liberal MPs and senators ahead of this morning’s party room meeting, more than 20,000 Australians responded by emailing Liberal parliamentarians urging them to continue to vote as one.
(Same sex marriage was due for some kind of consideration in the Coalition partyroom meeting this morning given David Leyonhjelm bill on marriage equality will go the the red room this week.)(Same sex marriage was due for some kind of consideration in the Coalition partyroom meeting this morning given David Leyonhjelm bill on marriage equality will go the the red room this week.)
12.15pm AEST01:1512.15pm AEST01:15
Seven Network political editor Mark Riley would like to know when the Labor policies are coming, given this was supposed to be the year when policies came.Seven Network political editor Mark Riley would like to know when the Labor policies are coming, given this was supposed to be the year when policies came.
Shorten thanks Riley for the opportunity to restate what Labor has already done, which wasn’t actually the invitiation, but never mind. Moving forward. Shorten says Labor will keep working for ideas in a disciplined way. He’s hopeful we’ll watch something that will be said at the submarine institute.Shorten thanks Riley for the opportunity to restate what Labor has already done, which wasn’t actually the invitiation, but never mind. Moving forward. Shorten says Labor will keep working for ideas in a disciplined way. He’s hopeful we’ll watch something that will be said at the submarine institute.
We are doing our work in opposition so that if we get the privilege to form a government in this nation we can articulate to Australians a plan for the next decade and two decades – not this sort of slap-stick comedy where measures are on and off and on and off again – as we see under the current chaotic crew.We are doing our work in opposition so that if we get the privilege to form a government in this nation we can articulate to Australians a plan for the next decade and two decades – not this sort of slap-stick comedy where measures are on and off and on and off again – as we see under the current chaotic crew.
Updated at 12.15pm AESTUpdated at 12.15pm AEST
12.07pm AEST01:0712.07pm AEST01:07
Shorten thinks Tony Abbott should clear the air about his taxpayer funded travel to Melbourne at the weekend.Shorten thinks Tony Abbott should clear the air about his taxpayer funded travel to Melbourne at the weekend.
Q: Didn’t Julia Gillard do the same thing – claim a travel entitlement for a staffer’s wedding?Q: Didn’t Julia Gillard do the same thing – claim a travel entitlement for a staffer’s wedding?
Shorten:Shorten:
The only reason you’re asking me the question is because Tony Abbott’s got some explaining to do.The only reason you’re asking me the question is because Tony Abbott’s got some explaining to do.
I think what we need do is have Tony Abbott do the explaining that Australians want to see him do.I think what we need do is have Tony Abbott do the explaining that Australians want to see him do.
12.03pm AEST01:0312.03pm AEST01:03
Fortunately for Bill Shorten, Labor’s families spokeswoman Jenny Macklin is present and understands how the pension is made sustainable.Fortunately for Bill Shorten, Labor’s families spokeswoman Jenny Macklin is present and understands how the pension is made sustainable.
It already is, she says. Particularly if you move constructively on superannuation adequacy.It already is, she says. Particularly if you move constructively on superannuation adequacy.
Jenny Macklin:Jenny Macklin:
I want to emphasise that the pension is sustainable. We know how important it is that pensioners are able to live a reasonable life on the pension. As Bill Shorten has just emphasised, the full pension is worth around $20,000 a year.I want to emphasise that the pension is sustainable. We know how important it is that pensioners are able to live a reasonable life on the pension. As Bill Shorten has just emphasised, the full pension is worth around $20,000 a year.
We spend one of the lowest amounts on the aged pension in the developed world. What we also know is it is very important to encourage and support people over their working life to take out superannuation, to contribute to their own retirement incomes.We spend one of the lowest amounts on the aged pension in the developed world. What we also know is it is very important to encourage and support people over their working life to take out superannuation, to contribute to their own retirement incomes.
It is this government that is making retirement incomes less sustainable by freezing the increase in the superannuation guarantee.It is this government that is making retirement incomes less sustainable by freezing the increase in the superannuation guarantee.
12.00pm AEST01:0012.00pm AEST01:00
First question.First question.
Q: How would you make the pension system sustainable?Q: How would you make the pension system sustainable?
Bill Shorten:Bill Shorten:
First things first. The first way we create certainty in the pension system in Australia is Tony Abbott should stop lying to Australians and breaking his promises. Labor proposed changes to the pension when we were in office and what we were able to do is see pensioners get reasonable and modest increases. Let’s not exaggerate here about how well off pensioners are. The pension per annum delivers $20,000 a year for someone on the full pension. If Tony Abbott’s only plan for Australia’s future is to cut the rate of increase of pensions, then he has no plan for Australia’s future.First things first. The first way we create certainty in the pension system in Australia is Tony Abbott should stop lying to Australians and breaking his promises. Labor proposed changes to the pension when we were in office and what we were able to do is see pensioners get reasonable and modest increases. Let’s not exaggerate here about how well off pensioners are. The pension per annum delivers $20,000 a year for someone on the full pension. If Tony Abbott’s only plan for Australia’s future is to cut the rate of increase of pensions, then he has no plan for Australia’s future.
Q: What is your plan though?Q: What is your plan though?
Bill Shorten:Bill Shorten:
I will come to that.I will come to that.
11.58am AEST00:5811.58am AEST00:58
Let’s cross now to the Jazzercise. No Jazzercise. Just a new Labor campaign on the pension changes: Mr Abbott, don’t pocket our pension.Let’s cross now to the Jazzercise. No Jazzercise. Just a new Labor campaign on the pension changes: Mr Abbott, don’t pocket our pension.
Bill Shorten:Bill Shorten:
If Tony Abbott can promise not to cut foreign aid in the upcoming budget, then he can promise not to cut pensions in the upcoming budget.If Tony Abbott can promise not to cut foreign aid in the upcoming budget, then he can promise not to cut pensions in the upcoming budget.
(Julie Bishop, through that eyeroll, managed to get an undertaking from finance minister Mathias Cormann and treasurer Joe Hockey yesterday that aid would not be touched in the May budget. You can sense, therefore, what’s coming down the pipe in question time, can’t you?)(Julie Bishop, through that eyeroll, managed to get an undertaking from finance minister Mathias Cormann and treasurer Joe Hockey yesterday that aid would not be touched in the May budget. You can sense, therefore, what’s coming down the pipe in question time, can’t you?)
11.54am AEST00:5411.54am AEST00:54
Initiatives in the budget will be focused on jobs, growth and opportunity*Initiatives in the budget will be focused on jobs, growth and opportunity*
(* Except possibly for dot point five which would appear to deal with a scramble for revenue and yet another welfare crackdown. For clarity this asterix analysis is mine, not the treasurer’s.)(* Except possibly for dot point five which would appear to deal with a scramble for revenue and yet another welfare crackdown. For clarity this asterix analysis is mine, not the treasurer’s.)
11.50am AEST00:5011.50am AEST00:50
We will get the budget back to surplus as soon as possible.We will get the budget back to surplus as soon as possible.
(The big news has been buried on slide 12.)(The big news has been buried on slide 12.)
11.49am AEST00:4911.49am AEST00:49
All new spending will be offset by savings that are responsible and fair.All new spending will be offset by savings that are responsible and fair.
Woo hoo, as Homer Simpson would say. (The slides confirm a childcare package will be in the budget.)Woo hoo, as Homer Simpson would say. (The slides confirm a childcare package will be in the budget.)
11.47am AEST00:4711.47am AEST00:47
While I wait for any Jazzercise updates, a package of slides has just arrived from the treasurer, Joe Hockey’s office, which outlines a presentation Hockey made to colleagues in the partyroom this morning about the budget.While I wait for any Jazzercise updates, a package of slides has just arrived from the treasurer, Joe Hockey’s office, which outlines a presentation Hockey made to colleagues in the partyroom this morning about the budget.
A promising opening.A promising opening.
The focus of the 2015 budget will be to build a stronger Australian economy.The focus of the 2015 budget will be to build a stronger Australian economy.
11.38am AEST00:3811.38am AEST00:38
Oh me, oh my. We can only hope a Bill Shorten as Jane Fonda cameo looms.Oh me, oh my. We can only hope a Bill Shorten as Jane Fonda cameo looms.
The #Jazzercise class awaiting @billshortenmp at a Canberra senior's centre #auspol #pensions pic.twitter.com/oG9kEE4ppzThe #Jazzercise class awaiting @billshortenmp at a Canberra senior's centre #auspol #pensions pic.twitter.com/oG9kEE4ppz
(Was Jane Fonda jazzercise?)(Was Jane Fonda jazzercise?)
11.20am AEST00:2011.20am AEST00:20
Breaking: nothingBreaking: nothing
Speaking of lurking. An alert came before presaging an event for Clive Palmer and Nick Xenophon and a minority policy later this morning.Speaking of lurking. An alert came before presaging an event for Clive Palmer and Nick Xenophon and a minority policy later this morning.
What could this be? Well, nothing as it happens. Nick Xenophon, clarifying.What could this be? Well, nothing as it happens. Nick Xenophon, clarifying.
As much as I’m always happy to be in the same room as Clive Palmer MP and to chat with him, news of a joint press conference today came as a surprise. Nevertheless, I look forward to seeing Clive at the launch today of Minority Policy by Richard Denniss and Brenton Prosser.As much as I’m always happy to be in the same room as Clive Palmer MP and to chat with him, news of a joint press conference today came as a surprise. Nevertheless, I look forward to seeing Clive at the launch today of Minority Policy by Richard Denniss and Brenton Prosser.
11.17am AEST00:1711.17am AEST00:17
A trend pioneered by the Liberal senator Bill Heffernan of lurking in the background of press conferences is really taking off. Last week, the Liberal senator Cory Bernardi lurked in the back of David Leyonhjelm’s press conference about his private member’s bill legalising same sex marriage. Today, crossbencher Ricky Muir was lurking as big welfare made their pitch to parliamentarians.A trend pioneered by the Liberal senator Bill Heffernan of lurking in the background of press conferences is really taking off. Last week, the Liberal senator Cory Bernardi lurked in the back of David Leyonhjelm’s press conference about his private member’s bill legalising same sex marriage. Today, crossbencher Ricky Muir was lurking as big welfare made their pitch to parliamentarians.
Lurking. The new introspection.Lurking. The new introspection.
11.10am AEST00:1011.10am AEST00:10
In the spirit of letting the poll whisperers speak today. Readers are concerned (as they often are) that I’ve just mentioned Newspoll and not the most recent Morgan poll, which produced a starkly different result. I don’t actually need to mention Morgan – many of you folks work Morgan over exhaustively in the thread. Power to your arms. Go to town. If you happen to read this blog exclusively above the line, in two party preferred terms, Morgan had Labor ahead 56% to 44%. Over to Edmund Tadros (who runs a comprehensive poll of polls and a swing calculator for the AFR.)In the spirit of letting the poll whisperers speak today. Readers are concerned (as they often are) that I’ve just mentioned Newspoll and not the most recent Morgan poll, which produced a starkly different result. I don’t actually need to mention Morgan – many of you folks work Morgan over exhaustively in the thread. Power to your arms. Go to town. If you happen to read this blog exclusively above the line, in two party preferred terms, Morgan had Labor ahead 56% to 44%. Over to Edmund Tadros (who runs a comprehensive poll of polls and a swing calculator for the AFR.)
The gap between the pollsters may be due a range of factors such as voter volatility, news events, methodological differences or statistical noise.The gap between the pollsters may be due a range of factors such as voter volatility, news events, methodological differences or statistical noise.
Updated at 11.43am AESTUpdated at 11.43am AEST
10.51am AEST23:5110.51am AEST23:51
I missed this, so thanks to AAP.I missed this, so thanks to AAP.
The prime minister initially responded to the Moss review by saying that “occasionally … things happen”. Abbott later toughened up his position, acknowledging the “very disturbing” findings of the process.The prime minister initially responded to the Moss review by saying that “occasionally … things happen”. Abbott later toughened up his position, acknowledging the “very disturbing” findings of the process.
10.33am AEST23:3310.33am AEST23:33
Our non-specific thing is better than their awful thing.Our non-specific thing is better than their awful thing.
Labor’s deputy leader Tanya Plibersek.Labor’s deputy leader Tanya Plibersek.
Q: Will Labor commit to restoring the aid budget to what it was in 2013?Q: Will Labor commit to restoring the aid budget to what it was in 2013?
Well I can tell you that when we come back into government after $11bn of cuts, we’ll certainly have a huge repair job to do.Well I can tell you that when we come back into government after $11bn of cuts, we’ll certainly have a huge repair job to do.
Unfortunately at this stage we don’t know how deep, how big that repair job will be, we don’t know whether there’ll be further cuts.Unfortunately at this stage we don’t know how deep, how big that repair job will be, we don’t know whether there’ll be further cuts.
But I can tell you this, we’ll be doing better on foreign aid than the Liberals have done.But I can tell you this, we’ll be doing better on foreign aid than the Liberals have done.
10.18am AEST23:1810.18am AEST23:18
Courageous conservatives. Just because you need it.Courageous conservatives. Just because you need it.
I'm running for President and I hope to earn your support! pic.twitter.com/0UTqaIoytPI'm running for President and I hope to earn your support! pic.twitter.com/0UTqaIoytP
Ok, maybe I need it.Ok, maybe I need it.
10.14am AEST23:1410.14am AEST23:14
Given we have a crack team on the NSW election, I’m not going to spark a demarcation dispute (see what happens when I drift into IR territory, I go all shop steward) by hitting out in the direction of Sydney.Given we have a crack team on the NSW election, I’m not going to spark a demarcation dispute (see what happens when I drift into IR territory, I go all shop steward) by hitting out in the direction of Sydney.
I’ve already shared this on Twitter this morning but if you weren’t up with me at 5.30am you should read my colleague David Marr’s piece on Mike Baird for a number of reasons, but most particularly in my view for this, immortal line(s).I’ve already shared this on Twitter this morning but if you weren’t up with me at 5.30am you should read my colleague David Marr’s piece on Mike Baird for a number of reasons, but most particularly in my view for this, immortal line(s).
Baird is mobbed in the foyers by delighted grandmothers. They light up as he passes by. They paw him. It’s erotic. An embarrassed grin settles on his face. This crowd is too old for selfies. He is patient as they fumble with their cameras.Baird is mobbed in the foyers by delighted grandmothers. They light up as he passes by. They paw him. It’s erotic. An embarrassed grin settles on his face. This crowd is too old for selfies. He is patient as they fumble with their cameras.
10.05am AEST23:0510.05am AEST23:05
It’s quite funny for old people like me who covered industrial relations in the 1990’s to periodically catch up with all the brand new thinking. Once Australian employers were hell bent on ensuring the end of industry-wide agreements. The prevailing fashion was the workplace level agreement, or even better, the individual employment contract.It’s quite funny for old people like me who covered industrial relations in the 1990’s to periodically catch up with all the brand new thinking. Once Australian employers were hell bent on ensuring the end of industry-wide agreements. The prevailing fashion was the workplace level agreement, or even better, the individual employment contract.
But not apparently anymore. Hot of the presses this morning is what we used to call in the ye olde days, a model agreement, between Business South Australia and the Shop, Distributive & Allied Employees’ Association, that significantly reduces penalty rates for retailers at weekends and on public holidays in return in for an increase in base pay.But not apparently anymore. Hot of the presses this morning is what we used to call in the ye olde days, a model agreement, between Business South Australia and the Shop, Distributive & Allied Employees’ Association, that significantly reduces penalty rates for retailers at weekends and on public holidays in return in for an increase in base pay.
Apparently some industry-wide agreements are more equal than others.Apparently some industry-wide agreements are more equal than others.
9.52am AEST22:529.52am AEST22:52
Tuesday, now and ahead. The various party rooms are meeting downstairs as we speak. The chambers will be underway at lunchtime. The government’s metadata legislation is listed for debate later on today in the red room – but there’s migration legislation up first.Tuesday, now and ahead. The various party rooms are meeting downstairs as we speak. The chambers will be underway at lunchtime. The government’s metadata legislation is listed for debate later on today in the red room – but there’s migration legislation up first.
9.35am AEST22:359.35am AEST22:35
Lest you think I’m joking about my morning hot beverage delivery.Lest you think I’m joking about my morning hot beverage delivery.
Damnation @mpbowers pic.twitter.com/SE8VtPr9weDamnation @mpbowers pic.twitter.com/SE8VtPr9we
9.31am AEST22:319.31am AEST22:31
Folks with us last week might remember that the education minister Christopher Pyne posted a picture on Twitter of a fortune cookie he consumed at Kingston restaurant last week. The fortune provided some helpful advice in the middle of all the controversy about higher education deregulation. In the spirit of Tuesday, this advice was ironic of course.Folks with us last week might remember that the education minister Christopher Pyne posted a picture on Twitter of a fortune cookie he consumed at Kingston restaurant last week. The fortune provided some helpful advice in the middle of all the controversy about higher education deregulation. In the spirit of Tuesday, this advice was ironic of course.
Mike has been enormously inspired by potential sources of external advice, both for politics as a whole, and this blog in particular.Mike has been enormously inspired by potential sources of external advice, both for politics as a whole, and this blog in particular.
Given Simon Jackman’s caution in the last post about over analysing the meanings of individual surveys with small sample sizes, we thought we might crack open one of Chris’ Crackers in the event a signal emerged from the noise.Given Simon Jackman’s caution in the last post about over analysing the meanings of individual surveys with small sample sizes, we thought we might crack open one of Chris’ Crackers in the event a signal emerged from the noise.
Our first Chris’ Crackers for the week. Some sage advice here for a prime minister looking to consolidate an improvement that may or may not be a trend.Our first Chris’ Crackers for the week. Some sage advice here for a prime minister looking to consolidate an improvement that may or may not be a trend.
9.16am AEST22:169.16am AEST22:16
At some ungodly hour this morning, I had a brief Twitter conversation with my friend Simon Jackman – who is a political scientist and applied statistician at Stanford University – about the Newspoll.At some ungodly hour this morning, I had a brief Twitter conversation with my friend Simon Jackman – who is a political scientist and applied statistician at Stanford University – about the Newspoll.
I’ve asked him to send me some thoughts. Being such a lovely human, he’s obliged. His point is none of these fortnightly polls mean anything terribly specific, despite our tendency to freakishly over-analyse them.I’ve asked him to send me some thoughts. Being such a lovely human, he’s obliged. His point is none of these fortnightly polls mean anything terribly specific, despite our tendency to freakishly over-analyse them.
The Coalition is likely improving on the current field evidence, but we need to see the trend to work out the how’s and why’s.The Coalition is likely improving on the current field evidence, but we need to see the trend to work out the how’s and why’s.
Here’s Simon:Here’s Simon:
A few reactions to the Newspoll numbers.A few reactions to the Newspoll numbers.
Its not a moral failing to have a sample size of 1,100, and the incentives for journalists to make the strongest case they can with the poll numbers are easily understood. The 4% jump in Coalition two party preferred measure since the last Newspoll is impressive, sure. Even with the moderate sample sizes Newspoll runs it is nonetheless extremely likely that the Coalition’s stocks really are improving.Its not a moral failing to have a sample size of 1,100, and the incentives for journalists to make the strongest case they can with the poll numbers are easily understood. The 4% jump in Coalition two party preferred measure since the last Newspoll is impressive, sure. Even with the moderate sample sizes Newspoll runs it is nonetheless extremely likely that the Coalition’s stocks really are improving.
But changes in the primaries aren’t so large relative to sampling error, save for the three point jump for the Coalition:But changes in the primaries aren’t so large relative to sampling error, save for the three point jump for the Coalition:
Last two Newspolls: Coalition primary 38 to 41: probability Coalition primary actually increased: 91% (given results of last two Newspolls, sample sizes, Newspoll’s rounding of their results for publication, my guess as to the likely effects of weighting and missing data).Last two Newspolls: Coalition primary 38 to 41: probability Coalition primary actually increased: 91% (given results of last two Newspolls, sample sizes, Newspoll’s rounding of their results for publication, my guess as to the likely effects of weighting and missing data).
Probability Coalition primary is actually 40% or higher: 70%.Probability Coalition primary is actually 40% or higher: 70%.
Last two Newspolls: Labor primary 39 to 37: probability Labor primary actually fell: 72%.Last two Newspolls: Labor primary 39 to 37: probability Labor primary actually fell: 72%.
Last two Newspolls: Greens 12 to 11: probability Green primary actually fell: 61%.Last two Newspolls: Greens 12 to 11: probability Green primary actually fell: 61%.
None of these trip conventional levels of statistical significance used in science and academia (95%).None of these trip conventional levels of statistical significance used in science and academia (95%).
I’m not saying the 95% convention ought to apply, but still.I’m not saying the 95% convention ought to apply, but still.
Bottom line is that Newspoll sample sizes are too small to allow us to say much when we compare any given pair of Newspolls.Bottom line is that Newspoll sample sizes are too small to allow us to say much when we compare any given pair of Newspolls.
This is true for just about any single media poll — there is only so much sample and survey time a media organisation can afford to buy.This is true for just about any single media poll — there is only so much sample and survey time a media organisation can afford to buy.
Most of the time the poll-to-poll changes are too small to trip conventional standards of statistical significance; when we do get big changes they are almost too large to be politically plausible, overstating the true amount of change in the population, and we’re likely to see some attenuation in the next poll.Most of the time the poll-to-poll changes are too small to trip conventional standards of statistical significance; when we do get big changes they are almost too large to be politically plausible, overstating the true amount of change in the population, and we’re likely to see some attenuation in the next poll.
Sure, politics sometimes gets quite dramatic and opinion really will shift 4 or more points over a two week span (or less).Sure, politics sometimes gets quite dramatic and opinion really will shift 4 or more points over a two week span (or less).
But not often.But not often.
9.05am AEST22:059.05am AEST22:05
Also doing the rounds in the news cycle this morning, a story from the Herald Sun concerning prime ministerial travel over this past weekend.Also doing the rounds in the news cycle this morning, a story from the Herald Sun concerning prime ministerial travel over this past weekend.
Ellen Whinnett and Angus Thompson report: “Prime minister Tony Abbott used a taxpayer-funded RAAF plane to fly to Melbourne, where he attended the birthday party of mining millionaire and big Liberal donor Paul Marks. Mr Abbott joined about 45 people for the birthday party at the exclusive Huntingdale Golf Club on Sunday night. He started the day in Brisbane and flew to Sydney for the NSW Liberal election campaign launch with premier Mike Baird before flying with a small group aboard the RAAF VIP plane to Melbourne. Once he arrived at Huntingdale, the PM shed his tie and mingled with guests, enjoying crayfish and aged Wagyu beef with a glass of chardonnay. He also gave a speech in honour of Mr Marks.Ellen Whinnett and Angus Thompson report: “Prime minister Tony Abbott used a taxpayer-funded RAAF plane to fly to Melbourne, where he attended the birthday party of mining millionaire and big Liberal donor Paul Marks. Mr Abbott joined about 45 people for the birthday party at the exclusive Huntingdale Golf Club on Sunday night. He started the day in Brisbane and flew to Sydney for the NSW Liberal election campaign launch with premier Mike Baird before flying with a small group aboard the RAAF VIP plane to Melbourne. Once he arrived at Huntingdale, the PM shed his tie and mingled with guests, enjoying crayfish and aged Wagyu beef with a glass of chardonnay. He also gave a speech in honour of Mr Marks.
His office defended the use of the VIP plane, with a spokesman advising: “The prime minister had other work-related engagements in Melbourne on Sunday. All travel was undertaken within the rules.’’His office defended the use of the VIP plane, with a spokesman advising: “The prime minister had other work-related engagements in Melbourne on Sunday. All travel was undertaken within the rules.’’
9.00am AEST22:009.00am AEST22:00
Mental health has been a big issue in the morning news cycle. As my colleague Lenore Taylor reports: “Over 70 mental health organisations have written to prime minister Tony Abbott imploring him to maintain $300m in annual funding to mental health services that are preparing to sack staff as they face an end to commonwealth grants on 30 June. Groups including Headspace, Suicide Prevention Australia, the Black Dog Institute and Sane Australia wrote that “the continued uncertainty is now resulting in services being shut down and staff attrition”.Mental health has been a big issue in the morning news cycle. As my colleague Lenore Taylor reports: “Over 70 mental health organisations have written to prime minister Tony Abbott imploring him to maintain $300m in annual funding to mental health services that are preparing to sack staff as they face an end to commonwealth grants on 30 June. Groups including Headspace, Suicide Prevention Australia, the Black Dog Institute and Sane Australia wrote that “the continued uncertainty is now resulting in services being shut down and staff attrition”.
The Abbott government plans to release a review of mental health services soon. The point of this morning’s planned intervention is not soon enough for groups having to make big decisions before the middle of the year.The Abbott government plans to release a review of mental health services soon. The point of this morning’s planned intervention is not soon enough for groups having to make big decisions before the middle of the year.
8.55am AEST21:558.55am AEST21:55
The talking point on the eyeroll, should you be interested, is Joe Hockey was being ironic when he prompted Julie Bishop to roll her eyes. I’ve counted three mentions of irony thus far.The talking point on the eyeroll, should you be interested, is Joe Hockey was being ironic when he prompted Julie Bishop to roll her eyes. I’ve counted three mentions of irony thus far.
8.52am AEST21:528.52am AEST21:52
It is raining in Canberra this morning. At least I hope this is rain.It is raining in Canberra this morning. At least I hope this is rain.
Good morning to Mike Bowers.Good morning to Mike Bowers.
This is the summer of our introspections, he’s just said to me. He’ll follow up shortly by asking me if I want a hot cup of PineOClean.This is the summer of our introspections, he’s just said to me. He’ll follow up shortly by asking me if I want a hot cup of PineOClean.
8.41am AEST21:418.41am AEST21:41
What this poll shows is the voters are now looking at Labor.What this poll shows is the voters are now looking at Labor.
Malcolm Turnbull said it on radio before. Now the infrastructure minister Jamie Briggs has said it at the doors of the ministerial entrance.Malcolm Turnbull said it on radio before. Now the infrastructure minister Jamie Briggs has said it at the doors of the ministerial entrance.
Let the official government talking point show that the Newspoll confirms voters are looking at Labor’s non-existent agenda. Well, the government is looking at it, in the hope Labor’s non-existent agenda proves a more compelling subject than the government’s completely incoherent agenda.Let the official government talking point show that the Newspoll confirms voters are looking at Labor’s non-existent agenda. Well, the government is looking at it, in the hope Labor’s non-existent agenda proves a more compelling subject than the government’s completely incoherent agenda.
This is the new test in Australian politics – have you noticed – ‘they are so much worser.’ Pretty compelling stuff, isn’t it? Let’s lean in closer to make sure we don’t miss a moment.This is the new test in Australian politics – have you noticed – ‘they are so much worser.’ Pretty compelling stuff, isn’t it? Let’s lean in closer to make sure we don’t miss a moment.
Small business minister Bruce Billson has just told Sky News the Liberal party had a ..Small business minister Bruce Billson has just told Sky News the Liberal party had a ..
.. moment of introspection .... moment of introspection ..
but has now walked right by.but has now walked right by.
Billson means that moment of introspection a few weeks ago when the party had a debate over whether or not the leader, Tony Abbott, should still be the leader.Billson means that moment of introspection a few weeks ago when the party had a debate over whether or not the leader, Tony Abbott, should still be the leader.
Introspection. So yesterday.Introspection. So yesterday.
Updated at 8.48am AESTUpdated at 8.48am AEST
8.34am AEST21:348.34am AEST21:34
The early morning news cycle is still preoccupied with eyerolls. If you weren’t with me yesterday, or if you’ve failed to check in on any social media platform for the past 24 hours or so, it’s possible you could have missed the foreign minister Julie Bishop rolling her eyes at Joe Hockey yesterday during his condolence speech marking the passing of Malcolm Fraser.The early morning news cycle is still preoccupied with eyerolls. If you weren’t with me yesterday, or if you’ve failed to check in on any social media platform for the past 24 hours or so, it’s possible you could have missed the foreign minister Julie Bishop rolling her eyes at Joe Hockey yesterday during his condolence speech marking the passing of Malcolm Fraser.
In the event you did miss it, Julie Bishop rolled her eyes at Joe Hockey. The eyeroll seemed to relate to a cut to foreign aid that was there in the morning but not there in the afternoon. Turnbull, during his ABC interview just before, thought the whole incident may be over analysed. (Can you imagine such a thought crime when there is so much head room still left in the proposition that Julie Bishop’s poker face – suddenly – ah .. mazingly – cracked?) Turnbull also imagined that the journalist who set the over-analysis wheels in motion on Monday, The Australian’s Greg Sheridan, might have got his facts wrong.In the event you did miss it, Julie Bishop rolled her eyes at Joe Hockey. The eyeroll seemed to relate to a cut to foreign aid that was there in the morning but not there in the afternoon. Turnbull, during his ABC interview just before, thought the whole incident may be over analysed. (Can you imagine such a thought crime when there is so much head room still left in the proposition that Julie Bishop’s poker face – suddenly – ah .. mazingly – cracked?) Turnbull also imagined that the journalist who set the over-analysis wheels in motion on Monday, The Australian’s Greg Sheridan, might have got his facts wrong.
8.16am AEST21:168.16am AEST21:16
Q: Ricky Muir, are you feral?Q: Ricky Muir, are you feral?
Senate cross bencher Ricky Muir is live currently on ABC radio. (The prime minister called the senate cross bench feral last week.)Senate cross bencher Ricky Muir is live currently on ABC radio. (The prime minister called the senate cross bench feral last week.)
No, Ricky Muir is pretty sure he’s not feral, having reviewed the field evidence.No, Ricky Muir is pretty sure he’s not feral, having reviewed the field evidence.
Ricky Muir:Ricky Muir:
I don’t think the senate is being feral. I think the senate is trying to view bills on their merits.I don’t think the senate is being feral. I think the senate is trying to view bills on their merits.
Other moving parts from the Muir interview:Other moving parts from the Muir interview:
8.02am AEST21:028.02am AEST21:02
Well good morning everyone and welcome to the resumption of normal political business in the national capital, whatever that may mean.Well good morning everyone and welcome to the resumption of normal political business in the national capital, whatever that may mean.
Republican senator Ted Cruz, who has now declared himself a candidate to be the next president of the United States, has, overnight, dreamed of a nation of courageous conservatives rising up to retake their country. Conservatives of the more timid variety in Australia can dream that this morning’s Newspoll result presages some kind of (positive) rising up on that part of Australian voters.Republican senator Ted Cruz, who has now declared himself a candidate to be the next president of the United States, has, overnight, dreamed of a nation of courageous conservatives rising up to retake their country. Conservatives of the more timid variety in Australia can dream that this morning’s Newspoll result presages some kind of (positive) rising up on that part of Australian voters.
Despite a less than stellar parliamentary week for the Coalition and for the prime minister last week, there’s a bounce in today’s Newspoll. On the primary vote measure, the government has recorded its best result since September. This particular survey is slightly whiplash inducing, given the two party preferred gap between the major parties in the last Newspoll was ten points. Labor was ten points ahead. Now Labor leads the government 51 to 49. As is said periodically by psephologists the world over, go figure.Despite a less than stellar parliamentary week for the Coalition and for the prime minister last week, there’s a bounce in today’s Newspoll. On the primary vote measure, the government has recorded its best result since September. This particular survey is slightly whiplash inducing, given the two party preferred gap between the major parties in the last Newspoll was ten points. Labor was ten points ahead. Now Labor leads the government 51 to 49. As is said periodically by psephologists the world over, go figure.
Speaking of News (Corp, not poll), as we go live this morning, the communications minister Malcolm Turnbull is on Radio National Breakfast being asked about Rupert Murdoch’s favourite topic, Turnbull’s ambition to overhaul Australia’s media ownership laws.Speaking of News (Corp, not poll), as we go live this morning, the communications minister Malcolm Turnbull is on Radio National Breakfast being asked about Rupert Murdoch’s favourite topic, Turnbull’s ambition to overhaul Australia’s media ownership laws.
Turnbull has recently popped this mildly explosive proposition on Tony Abbott’s desk for further action, or perhaps, inaction, depending on the prevailing winds. (Thanks, Malcolm. No thank you, Tony.)Turnbull has recently popped this mildly explosive proposition on Tony Abbott’s desk for further action, or perhaps, inaction, depending on the prevailing winds. (Thanks, Malcolm. No thank you, Tony.)
Q: The (cross media ownership laws) are done, they are past their use by date. They need to change now, don’t they?Q: The (cross media ownership laws) are done, they are past their use by date. They need to change now, don’t they?
Malcolm Turnbull:Malcolm Turnbull:
I think they do.I think they do.
Q: Are you going to push this?Q: Are you going to push this?
Turnbull:Turnbull:
My views are very clear, everyone knows I think they are out of date. They were designed in a pre-internet era and they relate to a media landscape that doesn’t exist.My views are very clear, everyone knows I think they are out of date. They were designed in a pre-internet era and they relate to a media landscape that doesn’t exist.
The two out of three rule, which for example says you can only control a two out of a newspaper, radio station or television station in the same market, was designed in an era when the only forms of media were newspapers, radio and TV.The two out of three rule, which for example says you can only control a two out of a newspaper, radio station or television station in the same market, was designed in an era when the only forms of media were newspapers, radio and TV.
Well of course that’s completely transformed.Well of course that’s completely transformed.
Rupert Murdoch’s views are also clear: if Turnbull wants media ownership back on the agenda then he needs to look at the anti-siphoning list that reserves much premium sport for free TV. Murdoch would like more premium sport on pay TV, particularly given the competition about to hit Australian shores with the arrival of streaming services like Netflix.Rupert Murdoch’s views are also clear: if Turnbull wants media ownership back on the agenda then he needs to look at the anti-siphoning list that reserves much premium sport for free TV. Murdoch would like more premium sport on pay TV, particularly given the competition about to hit Australian shores with the arrival of streaming services like Netflix.
Turnbull:Turnbull:
We are urged to do this (do over the anti-siphoning list) by the pay TV industry. I absolutely respect and understand their commercial position but it’s important to understand that what they are seeking would not be popular, it would be most unpopular and in any event, it would need to be approved by the Senate.We are urged to do this (do over the anti-siphoning list) by the pay TV industry. I absolutely respect and understand their commercial position but it’s important to understand that what they are seeking would not be popular, it would be most unpopular and in any event, it would need to be approved by the Senate.
Why does anyone imagine that this Senate would be likely to approve changes that would be clearly as unpopular as that.Why does anyone imagine that this Senate would be likely to approve changes that would be clearly as unpopular as that.
Q: You know these changes need to occur.Q: You know these changes need to occur.
Turnbull:Turnbull:
Not to anti-siphoning.Not to anti-siphoning.
Sorry Rupert. Hard times for honest moguls.Sorry Rupert. Hard times for honest moguls.
Time to get loud and proud, the PL comments thread is now open for your business. I’m also available for banter, typo corrections, clarifications, or simple home renovations advice on the Twits. I’m @murpharoo and he’s @mpbowersTime to get loud and proud, the PL comments thread is now open for your business. I’m also available for banter, typo corrections, clarifications, or simple home renovations advice on the Twits. I’m @murpharoo and he’s @mpbowers
Updated at 8.05am AESTUpdated at 8.05am AEST