This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2015/mar/24/newspoll-bounce-for-tony-abbott-politics-live
The article has changed 16 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| Newspoll bounce for Tony Abbott – politics live | Newspoll bounce for Tony Abbott – politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 9.52am AEST22:52 | |
| Tuesday, now and ahead. The various party rooms are meeting downstairs as we speak. The chambers will be underway at lunchtime. The government’s metadata legislation is listed for debate later on today in the red room – but there’s migration legislation up first. | |
| 9.35am AEST22:35 | |
| Lest you think I’m joking about my morning hot beverage delivery. | |
| Damnation @mpbowers pic.twitter.com/SE8VtPr9we | |
| 9.31am AEST22:31 | |
| Folks with us last week might remember that the education minister Christopher Pyne posted a picture on Twitter of a fortune cookie he consumed at Kingston restaurant last week. The fortune provided some helpful advice in the middle of all the controversy about higher education deregulation. In the spirit of Tuesday, this advice was ironic of course. | |
| Mike has been enormously inspired by potential sources of external advice, both for politics as a whole, and this blog in particular. | |
| Given Simon Jackman’s caution in the last post about over analysing the meanings of individual surveys with small sample sizes, we thought we might crack open one of Chris’ Crackers in the event a signal emerged from the noise. | |
| Our first Chris’ Crackers for the week. Some sage advice here for a prime minister looking to consolidate an improvement that may or may not be a trend. | |
| 9.16am AEST22:16 | 9.16am AEST22:16 |
| At some ungodly hour this morning, I had a brief Twitter conversation with my friend Simon Jackman – who is a political scientist and applied statistician at Stanford University – about the Newspoll. | At some ungodly hour this morning, I had a brief Twitter conversation with my friend Simon Jackman – who is a political scientist and applied statistician at Stanford University – about the Newspoll. |
| I’ve asked him to send me some thoughts. Being such a lovely human, he’s obliged. His point is none of these fortnightly polls mean anything terribly specific, despite our tendency to freakishly over-analyse them. | I’ve asked him to send me some thoughts. Being such a lovely human, he’s obliged. His point is none of these fortnightly polls mean anything terribly specific, despite our tendency to freakishly over-analyse them. |
| The Coalition is likely improving on the current field evidence, but we need to see the trend to work out the how’s and why’s. | The Coalition is likely improving on the current field evidence, but we need to see the trend to work out the how’s and why’s. |
| Here’s Simon: | Here’s Simon: |
| A few reactions to the Newspoll numbers. | A few reactions to the Newspoll numbers. |
| Its not a moral failing to have a sample size of 1,100, and the incentives for journalists to make the strongest case they can with the poll numbers are easily understood. The 4% jump in Coalition two party preferred measure since the last Newspoll is impressive, sure. Even with the moderate sample sizes Newspoll runs it is nonetheless extremely likely that the Coalition’s stocks really are improving. | Its not a moral failing to have a sample size of 1,100, and the incentives for journalists to make the strongest case they can with the poll numbers are easily understood. The 4% jump in Coalition two party preferred measure since the last Newspoll is impressive, sure. Even with the moderate sample sizes Newspoll runs it is nonetheless extremely likely that the Coalition’s stocks really are improving. |
| But changes in the primaries aren’t so large relative to sampling error, save for the three point jump for the Coalition: | But changes in the primaries aren’t so large relative to sampling error, save for the three point jump for the Coalition: |
| Last two Newspolls: Coalition primary 38 to 41: probability Coalition primary actually increased: 91% (given results of last two Newspolls, sample sizes, Newspoll’s rounding of their results for publication, my guess as to the likely effects of weighting and missing data). | Last two Newspolls: Coalition primary 38 to 41: probability Coalition primary actually increased: 91% (given results of last two Newspolls, sample sizes, Newspoll’s rounding of their results for publication, my guess as to the likely effects of weighting and missing data). |
| Probability Coalition primary is actually 40% or higher: 70%. | Probability Coalition primary is actually 40% or higher: 70%. |
| Last two Newspolls: Labor primary 39 to 37: probability Labor primary actually fell: 72%. | Last two Newspolls: Labor primary 39 to 37: probability Labor primary actually fell: 72%. |
| Last two Newspolls: Greens 12 to 11: probability Green primary actually fell: 61%. | Last two Newspolls: Greens 12 to 11: probability Green primary actually fell: 61%. |
| None of these trip conventional levels of statistical significance used in science and academia (95%). | None of these trip conventional levels of statistical significance used in science and academia (95%). |
| I’m not saying the 95% convention ought to apply, but still. | I’m not saying the 95% convention ought to apply, but still. |
| Bottom line is that Newspoll sample sizes are too small to allow us to say much when we compare any given pair of Newspolls. | Bottom line is that Newspoll sample sizes are too small to allow us to say much when we compare any given pair of Newspolls. |
| This is true for just about any single media poll — there is only so much sample and survey time a media organisation can afford to buy. | This is true for just about any single media poll — there is only so much sample and survey time a media organisation can afford to buy. |
| Most of the time the poll-to-poll changes are too small to trip conventional standards of statistical significance; when we do get big changes they are almost too large to be politically plausible, overstating the true amount of change in the population, and we’re likely to see some attenuation in the next poll. | Most of the time the poll-to-poll changes are too small to trip conventional standards of statistical significance; when we do get big changes they are almost too large to be politically plausible, overstating the true amount of change in the population, and we’re likely to see some attenuation in the next poll. |
| Sure, politics sometimes gets quite dramatic and opinion really will shift 4 or more points over a two week span (or less). | Sure, politics sometimes gets quite dramatic and opinion really will shift 4 or more points over a two week span (or less). |
| But not often. | But not often. |
| 9.05am AEST22:05 | 9.05am AEST22:05 |
| Also doing the rounds in the news cycle this morning, a story from the Herald Sun concerning prime ministerial travel over this past weekend. | Also doing the rounds in the news cycle this morning, a story from the Herald Sun concerning prime ministerial travel over this past weekend. |
| Ellen Whinnett and Angus Thompson report: “Prime minister Tony Abbott used a taxpayer-funded RAAF plane to fly to Melbourne, where he attended the birthday party of mining millionaire and big Liberal donor Paul Marks. Mr Abbott joined about 45 people for the birthday party at the exclusive Huntingdale Golf Club on Sunday night. He started the day in Brisbane and flew to Sydney for the NSW Liberal election campaign launch with premier Mike Baird before flying with a small group aboard the RAAF VIP plane to Melbourne. Once he arrived at Huntingdale, the PM shed his tie and mingled with guests, enjoying crayfish and aged Wagyu beef with a glass of chardonnay. He also gave a speech in honour of Mr Marks. | Ellen Whinnett and Angus Thompson report: “Prime minister Tony Abbott used a taxpayer-funded RAAF plane to fly to Melbourne, where he attended the birthday party of mining millionaire and big Liberal donor Paul Marks. Mr Abbott joined about 45 people for the birthday party at the exclusive Huntingdale Golf Club on Sunday night. He started the day in Brisbane and flew to Sydney for the NSW Liberal election campaign launch with premier Mike Baird before flying with a small group aboard the RAAF VIP plane to Melbourne. Once he arrived at Huntingdale, the PM shed his tie and mingled with guests, enjoying crayfish and aged Wagyu beef with a glass of chardonnay. He also gave a speech in honour of Mr Marks. |
| His office defended the use of the VIP plane, with a spokesman advising: “The prime minister had other work-related engagements in Melbourne on Sunday. All travel was undertaken within the rules.’’ | His office defended the use of the VIP plane, with a spokesman advising: “The prime minister had other work-related engagements in Melbourne on Sunday. All travel was undertaken within the rules.’’ |
| 9.00am AEST22:00 | 9.00am AEST22:00 |
| Mental health has been a big issue in the morning news cycle. As my colleague Lenore Taylor reports: “Over 70 mental health organisations have written to prime minister Tony Abbott imploring him to maintain $300m in annual funding to mental health services that are preparing to sack staff as they face an end to commonwealth grants on 30 June. Groups including Headspace, Suicide Prevention Australia, the Black Dog Institute and Sane Australia wrote that “the continued uncertainty is now resulting in services being shut down and staff attrition”. | Mental health has been a big issue in the morning news cycle. As my colleague Lenore Taylor reports: “Over 70 mental health organisations have written to prime minister Tony Abbott imploring him to maintain $300m in annual funding to mental health services that are preparing to sack staff as they face an end to commonwealth grants on 30 June. Groups including Headspace, Suicide Prevention Australia, the Black Dog Institute and Sane Australia wrote that “the continued uncertainty is now resulting in services being shut down and staff attrition”. |
| The Abbott government plans to release a review of mental health services soon. The point of this morning’s planned intervention is not soon enough for groups having to make big decisions before the middle of the year. | The Abbott government plans to release a review of mental health services soon. The point of this morning’s planned intervention is not soon enough for groups having to make big decisions before the middle of the year. |
| 8.55am AEST21:55 | 8.55am AEST21:55 |
| The talking point on the eyeroll, should you be interested, is Joe Hockey was being ironic when he prompted Julie Bishop to roll her eyes. I’ve counted three mentions of irony thus far. | The talking point on the eyeroll, should you be interested, is Joe Hockey was being ironic when he prompted Julie Bishop to roll her eyes. I’ve counted three mentions of irony thus far. |
| 8.52am AEST21:52 | 8.52am AEST21:52 |
| It is raining in Canberra this morning. At least I hope this is rain. | It is raining in Canberra this morning. At least I hope this is rain. |
| Good morning to Mike Bowers. | Good morning to Mike Bowers. |
| This is the summer of our introspections, he’s just said to me. He’ll follow up shortly by asking me if I want a hot cup of PineOClean. | This is the summer of our introspections, he’s just said to me. He’ll follow up shortly by asking me if I want a hot cup of PineOClean. |
| 8.41am AEST21:41 | 8.41am AEST21:41 |
| What this poll shows is the voters are now looking at Labor. | What this poll shows is the voters are now looking at Labor. |
| Malcolm Turnbull said it on radio before. Now the infrastructure minister Jamie Briggs has said it at the doors of the ministerial entrance. | Malcolm Turnbull said it on radio before. Now the infrastructure minister Jamie Briggs has said it at the doors of the ministerial entrance. |
| Let the official government talking point show that the Newspoll confirms voters are looking at Labor’s non-existent agenda. Well, the government is looking at it, in the hope Labor’s non-existent agenda proves a more compelling subject than the government’s completely incoherent agenda. | Let the official government talking point show that the Newspoll confirms voters are looking at Labor’s non-existent agenda. Well, the government is looking at it, in the hope Labor’s non-existent agenda proves a more compelling subject than the government’s completely incoherent agenda. |
| This is the new test in Australian politics – have you noticed – ‘they are so much worser.’ Pretty compelling stuff, isn’t it? Let’s lean in closer to make sure we don’t miss a moment. | This is the new test in Australian politics – have you noticed – ‘they are so much worser.’ Pretty compelling stuff, isn’t it? Let’s lean in closer to make sure we don’t miss a moment. |
| Small business minister Bruce Billson has just told Sky News the Liberal party had a .. | Small business minister Bruce Billson has just told Sky News the Liberal party had a .. |
| .. moment of introspection .. | .. moment of introspection .. |
| but has now walked right by. | but has now walked right by. |
| Billson means that moment of introspection a few weeks ago when the party had a debate over whether or not the leader, Tony Abbott, should still be the leader. | Billson means that moment of introspection a few weeks ago when the party had a debate over whether or not the leader, Tony Abbott, should still be the leader. |
| Introspection. So yesterday. | Introspection. So yesterday. |
| Updated at 8.48am AEST | Updated at 8.48am AEST |
| 8.34am AEST21:34 | 8.34am AEST21:34 |
| The early morning news cycle is still preoccupied with eyerolls. If you weren’t with me yesterday, or if you’ve failed to check in on any social media platform for the past 24 hours or so, it’s possible you could have missed the foreign minister Julie Bishop rolling her eyes at Joe Hockey yesterday during his condolence speech marking the passing of Malcolm Fraser. | The early morning news cycle is still preoccupied with eyerolls. If you weren’t with me yesterday, or if you’ve failed to check in on any social media platform for the past 24 hours or so, it’s possible you could have missed the foreign minister Julie Bishop rolling her eyes at Joe Hockey yesterday during his condolence speech marking the passing of Malcolm Fraser. |
| In the event you did miss it, Julie Bishop rolled her eyes at Joe Hockey. The eyeroll seemed to relate to a cut to foreign aid that was there in the morning but not there in the afternoon. Turnbull, during his ABC interview just before, thought the whole incident may be over analysed. (Can you imagine such a thought crime when there is so much head room still left in the proposition that Julie Bishop’s poker face – suddenly – ah .. mazingly – cracked?) Turnbull also imagined that the journalist who set the over-analysis wheels in motion on Monday, The Australian’s Greg Sheridan, might have got his facts wrong. | In the event you did miss it, Julie Bishop rolled her eyes at Joe Hockey. The eyeroll seemed to relate to a cut to foreign aid that was there in the morning but not there in the afternoon. Turnbull, during his ABC interview just before, thought the whole incident may be over analysed. (Can you imagine such a thought crime when there is so much head room still left in the proposition that Julie Bishop’s poker face – suddenly – ah .. mazingly – cracked?) Turnbull also imagined that the journalist who set the over-analysis wheels in motion on Monday, The Australian’s Greg Sheridan, might have got his facts wrong. |
| 8.16am AEST21:16 | 8.16am AEST21:16 |
| Q: Ricky Muir, are you feral? | Q: Ricky Muir, are you feral? |
| Senate cross bencher Ricky Muir is live currently on ABC radio. (The prime minister called the senate cross bench feral last week.) | Senate cross bencher Ricky Muir is live currently on ABC radio. (The prime minister called the senate cross bench feral last week.) |
| No, Ricky Muir is pretty sure he’s not feral, having reviewed the field evidence. | No, Ricky Muir is pretty sure he’s not feral, having reviewed the field evidence. |
| Ricky Muir: | Ricky Muir: |
| I don’t think the senate is being feral. I think the senate is trying to view bills on their merits. | I don’t think the senate is being feral. I think the senate is trying to view bills on their merits. |
| Other moving parts from the Muir interview: | Other moving parts from the Muir interview: |
| 8.02am AEST21:02 | 8.02am AEST21:02 |
| Well good morning everyone and welcome to the resumption of normal political business in the national capital, whatever that may mean. | Well good morning everyone and welcome to the resumption of normal political business in the national capital, whatever that may mean. |
| Republican senator Ted Cruz, who has now declared himself a candidate to be the next president of the United States, has, overnight, dreamed of a nation of courageous conservatives rising up to retake their country. Conservatives of the more timid variety in Australia can dream that this morning’s Newspoll result presages some kind of (positive) rising up on that part of Australian voters. | Republican senator Ted Cruz, who has now declared himself a candidate to be the next president of the United States, has, overnight, dreamed of a nation of courageous conservatives rising up to retake their country. Conservatives of the more timid variety in Australia can dream that this morning’s Newspoll result presages some kind of (positive) rising up on that part of Australian voters. |
| Despite a less than stellar parliamentary week for the Coalition and for the prime minister last week, there’s a bounce in today’s Newspoll. On the primary vote measure, the government has recorded its best result since September. This particular survey is slightly whiplash inducing, given the two party preferred gap between the major parties in the last Newspoll was ten points. Labor was ten points ahead. Now Labor leads the government 51 to 49. As is said periodically by psephologists the world over, go figure. | Despite a less than stellar parliamentary week for the Coalition and for the prime minister last week, there’s a bounce in today’s Newspoll. On the primary vote measure, the government has recorded its best result since September. This particular survey is slightly whiplash inducing, given the two party preferred gap between the major parties in the last Newspoll was ten points. Labor was ten points ahead. Now Labor leads the government 51 to 49. As is said periodically by psephologists the world over, go figure. |
| Speaking of News (Corp, not poll), as we go live this morning, the communications minister Malcolm Turnbull is on Radio National Breakfast being asked about Rupert Murdoch’s favourite topic, Turnbull’s ambition to overhaul Australia’s media ownership laws. | Speaking of News (Corp, not poll), as we go live this morning, the communications minister Malcolm Turnbull is on Radio National Breakfast being asked about Rupert Murdoch’s favourite topic, Turnbull’s ambition to overhaul Australia’s media ownership laws. |
| Turnbull has recently popped this mildly explosive proposition on Tony Abbott’s desk for further action, or perhaps, inaction, depending on the prevailing winds. (Thanks, Malcolm. No thank you, Tony.) | Turnbull has recently popped this mildly explosive proposition on Tony Abbott’s desk for further action, or perhaps, inaction, depending on the prevailing winds. (Thanks, Malcolm. No thank you, Tony.) |
| Q: The (cross media ownership laws) are done, they are past their use by date. They need to change now, don’t they? | Q: The (cross media ownership laws) are done, they are past their use by date. They need to change now, don’t they? |
| Malcolm Turnbull: | Malcolm Turnbull: |
| I think they do. | I think they do. |
| Q: Are you going to push this? | Q: Are you going to push this? |
| Turnbull: | Turnbull: |
| My views are very clear, everyone knows I think they are out of date. They were designed in a pre-internet era and they relate to a media landscape that doesn’t exist. | My views are very clear, everyone knows I think they are out of date. They were designed in a pre-internet era and they relate to a media landscape that doesn’t exist. |
| The two out of three rule, which for example says you can only control a two out of a newspaper, radio station or television station in the same market, was designed in an era when the only forms of media were newspapers, radio and TV. | The two out of three rule, which for example says you can only control a two out of a newspaper, radio station or television station in the same market, was designed in an era when the only forms of media were newspapers, radio and TV. |
| Well of course that’s completely transformed. | Well of course that’s completely transformed. |
| Rupert Murdoch’s views are also clear: if Turnbull wants media ownership back on the agenda then he needs to look at the anti-siphoning list that reserves much premium sport for free TV. Murdoch would like more premium sport on pay TV, particularly given the competition about to hit Australian shores with the arrival of streaming services like Netflix. | Rupert Murdoch’s views are also clear: if Turnbull wants media ownership back on the agenda then he needs to look at the anti-siphoning list that reserves much premium sport for free TV. Murdoch would like more premium sport on pay TV, particularly given the competition about to hit Australian shores with the arrival of streaming services like Netflix. |
| Turnbull: | Turnbull: |
| We are urged to do this (do over the anti-siphoning list) by the pay TV industry. I absolutely respect and understand their commercial position but it’s important to understand that what they are seeking would not be popular, it would be most unpopular and in any event, it would need to be approved by the Senate. | We are urged to do this (do over the anti-siphoning list) by the pay TV industry. I absolutely respect and understand their commercial position but it’s important to understand that what they are seeking would not be popular, it would be most unpopular and in any event, it would need to be approved by the Senate. |
| Why does anyone imagine that this Senate would be likely to approve changes that would be clearly as unpopular as that. | Why does anyone imagine that this Senate would be likely to approve changes that would be clearly as unpopular as that. |
| Q: You know these changes need to occur. | Q: You know these changes need to occur. |
| Turnbull: | Turnbull: |
| Not to anti-siphoning. | Not to anti-siphoning. |
| Sorry Rupert. Hard times for honest moguls. | Sorry Rupert. Hard times for honest moguls. |
| Time to get loud and proud, the PL comments thread is now open for your business. I’m also available for banter, typo corrections, clarifications, or simple home renovations advice on the Twits. I’m @murpharoo and he’s @mpbowers | Time to get loud and proud, the PL comments thread is now open for your business. I’m also available for banter, typo corrections, clarifications, or simple home renovations advice on the Twits. I’m @murpharoo and he’s @mpbowers |
| Updated at 8.05am AEST | Updated at 8.05am AEST |