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Oil revenues for 2016-2020 as high as £10bn or as low as £2.4bn, says report Scottish government lowers oil tax forecasts
(35 minutes later)
North sea oil and gas tax receipts for the next four years could be as small as £2.4bn or as high as £10.8bn, new Scottish government figures have said. The Scottish government has lowered its estimates for how much revenue will be generated from North Sea oil and gas.
The oil and gas bulletin, which laid out five scenarios, is the first to be published in more than a year. The oil and gas bulletin, which laid out five scenarios, said total receipts could be as small as £2.4bn or as high as £10.8bn between 2015/16 and 2019/20.
The new figures take into account the falls in oil prices in recent months. The best case scenario of £10.8bn is worse than the gloomiest forecast published last year.
The May 2014 bulletin forecast that the best case scenario on tax receipts between 2014 and 2019 could be £38.7bn, the worst case being £15.8bn. The May 2014 bulletin put the best case scenario between 2014/15 and 2018/19 at £38.7bn, with the worst being £15.8bn.
At the beginning of June, the UK's budget watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), painted a very pessimistic picture on oil receipts. The latest bulletin, which is the first to be published in more than a year, takes into account the drop in oil prices since last year.
Its estimated a total of £2.1bn would be raised in the 20 years to 2040-41. The price of oil fell by from about $110 a barrel in June of last year to about $48 in January 2015. It has since risen to its current price of about $60.
In its March 2014 report it said over the five year period from 2014 to 2019, possible revenue would be £17.6bn. Earlier this month, the UK's budget watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), painted a very pessimistic picture of oil receipts.
In its March 2014 report, the OBR said possible revenue would be £17.6bn over the five year period from 2014 to 2019.
When it examined this same period a year later, it recalculated its forecast down to £5.4bn.When it examined this same period a year later, it recalculated its forecast down to £5.4bn.
It estimated a total of £2.1bn would be raised in the 20 years to 2040-41.
Commenting on the new Scottish government figures, Scotland's Finance Secretary John Swinney said: "There is no disputing that the industry has faced a very challenging year and we continue to work relentlessly to safeguard jobs and retain vital skills."Commenting on the new Scottish government figures, Scotland's Finance Secretary John Swinney said: "There is no disputing that the industry has faced a very challenging year and we continue to work relentlessly to safeguard jobs and retain vital skills."
He added: "It is not acceptable for the UK government to sit back and accept low revenues. Both governments and the industry must continue to work together to improve efficiency, production and deliver better results for the North Sea.He added: "It is not acceptable for the UK government to sit back and accept low revenues. Both governments and the industry must continue to work together to improve efficiency, production and deliver better results for the North Sea.
"The critical issue is that the UK government needs to deliver on its commitment to consult on incentives to boost exploration in the North Sea, and this consultation must be launched urgently - so that firm proposals can be announced in the Autumn Statement.""The critical issue is that the UK government needs to deliver on its commitment to consult on incentives to boost exploration in the North Sea, and this consultation must be launched urgently - so that firm proposals can be announced in the Autumn Statement."
The Scottish Conservatives said the SNP government was rightly criticised during the Scottish independence referendum campaign for its "over-projected figures".
The party's Murdo Fraser said: "If Scotland was independent we'd now have a massive financial black hole to deal with.
"The SNP attempted to keep the public in the dark and mislead on oil prices. When will the Scottish people get an apology?"
Oil and Gas Bulletin - May 2014Oil and Gas Bulletin - May 2014
Oil and Gas Bulletin - June 2015Oil and Gas Bulletin - June 2015