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| Version 4 | Version 5 |
|---|---|
| Scottish government lowers oil tax forecasts | Scottish government lowers oil tax forecasts |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The Scottish government has lowered its estimates for how much revenue will be generated from North Sea oil and gas. | The Scottish government has lowered its estimates for how much revenue will be generated from North Sea oil and gas. |
| The oil and gas bulletin, which laid out five scenarios, said total receipts could be as small as £2.4bn or as high as £10.8bn between 2015/16 and 2019/20. | The oil and gas bulletin, which laid out five scenarios, said total receipts could be as small as £2.4bn or as high as £10.8bn between 2015/16 and 2019/20. |
| The best case scenario of £10.8bn is worse than the gloomiest forecast published last year. | The best case scenario of £10.8bn is worse than the gloomiest forecast published last year. |
| The May 2014 bulletin put the best case scenario between 2014/15 and 2018/19 at £38.7bn, with the worst being £15.8bn. | The May 2014 bulletin put the best case scenario between 2014/15 and 2018/19 at £38.7bn, with the worst being £15.8bn. |
| The latest bulletin, which is the first to be published in more than a year, takes into account the drop in oil prices since last year. | The latest bulletin, which is the first to be published in more than a year, takes into account the drop in oil prices since last year. |
| The price of oil fell by from about $110 a barrel in June of last year to about $48 in January 2015. It has since risen to its current price of about $60. | The price of oil fell by from about $110 a barrel in June of last year to about $48 in January 2015. It has since risen to its current price of about $60. |
| Earlier this month, the UK's budget watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), painted a very pessimistic picture of oil receipts. | Earlier this month, the UK's budget watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), painted a very pessimistic picture of oil receipts. |
| In its March 2014 report, the OBR said possible revenue would be £17.6bn over the five year period from 2014 to 2019. | In its March 2014 report, the OBR said possible revenue would be £17.6bn over the five year period from 2014 to 2019. |
| When it examined this same period a year later, it recalculated its forecast down to £5.4bn. | When it examined this same period a year later, it recalculated its forecast down to £5.4bn. |
| It estimated a total of £2.1bn would be raised in the 20 years to 2040-41. | It estimated a total of £2.1bn would be raised in the 20 years to 2040-41. |
| Commenting on the new Scottish government figures, Scotland's Finance Secretary John Swinney said: "There is no disputing that the industry has faced a very challenging year and we continue to work relentlessly to safeguard jobs and retain vital skills." | Commenting on the new Scottish government figures, Scotland's Finance Secretary John Swinney said: "There is no disputing that the industry has faced a very challenging year and we continue to work relentlessly to safeguard jobs and retain vital skills." |
| He added: "It is not acceptable for the UK government to sit back and accept low revenues. Both governments and the industry must continue to work together to improve efficiency, production and deliver better results for the North Sea. | He added: "It is not acceptable for the UK government to sit back and accept low revenues. Both governments and the industry must continue to work together to improve efficiency, production and deliver better results for the North Sea. |
| "The critical issue is that the UK government needs to deliver on its commitment to consult on incentives to boost exploration in the North Sea, and this consultation must be launched urgently - so that firm proposals can be announced in the Autumn Statement." | "The critical issue is that the UK government needs to deliver on its commitment to consult on incentives to boost exploration in the North Sea, and this consultation must be launched urgently - so that firm proposals can be announced in the Autumn Statement." |
| The Scottish Conservatives said the SNP government was rightly criticised during the Scottish independence referendum campaign for its "over-projected figures". | The Scottish Conservatives said the SNP government was rightly criticised during the Scottish independence referendum campaign for its "over-projected figures". |
| The party's Murdo Fraser said: "If Scotland was independent we'd now have a massive financial black hole to deal with. | The party's Murdo Fraser said: "If Scotland was independent we'd now have a massive financial black hole to deal with. |
| "The SNP attempted to keep the public in the dark and mislead on oil prices. When will the Scottish people get an apology?" | "The SNP attempted to keep the public in the dark and mislead on oil prices. When will the Scottish people get an apology?" |
| Full fiscal autonomy | Full fiscal autonomy |
| Scottish Labour's finance spokeswoman Jackie Baillie said the figures had "blown the SNP's policy of full fiscal autonomy out of the water" and accused the Scottish government of trying to "sneak the report out on the last day of parliament". | Scottish Labour's finance spokeswoman Jackie Baillie said the figures had "blown the SNP's policy of full fiscal autonomy out of the water" and accused the Scottish government of trying to "sneak the report out on the last day of parliament". |
| She added: "These projections are bad news for the oil industry, and both the SNP government and the UK government should explore all options to protect jobs that are directly affected and further down the supply chain. | She added: "These projections are bad news for the oil industry, and both the SNP government and the UK government should explore all options to protect jobs that are directly affected and further down the supply chain. |
| "Last week the SNP trooped through the lobbies with the extreme right wing of the Tory party to vote for full fiscal autonomy. It is as clear as day now that they knew the policy would be a disaster for Scotland - the SNP government's own figures prove it." | "Last week the SNP trooped through the lobbies with the extreme right wing of the Tory party to vote for full fiscal autonomy. It is as clear as day now that they knew the policy would be a disaster for Scotland - the SNP government's own figures prove it." |
| Liberal Democrat energy spokesman Liam McArthur also hit out, saying: "Issuing this report on the day parliament rises for the summer recess either shows contempt for parliament or contempt for the oil and gas industry. The strong suspicion is that it is both. Shame on them." | |
| He also claimed that "the SNP government's credibility on oil and gas is falling faster than their own massive downgrades to forecast receipts", adding that the report "blows a massive hole in their proposals for Scotland to scrap the Barnett formula and adopt full fiscal autonomy". | |
| Oil and Gas Bulletin - May 2014 | Oil and Gas Bulletin - May 2014 |
| Oil and Gas Bulletin - June 2015 | Oil and Gas Bulletin - June 2015 |