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| Myanmar's 2015 general elections explained | Myanmar's 2015 general elections explained |
| (about 5 hours later) | |
| Preparations are underway for Myanmar's general elections on 8 November - the country's first general elections since a nominally civilian government was introduced in 2011, ending nearly 50 years of military rule. There is widespread speculation about who will be the next president - and how well the opposition National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, will fare. The BBC's Jonah Fisher in Yangon explains the key issues. | Preparations are underway for Myanmar's general elections on 8 November - the country's first general elections since a nominally civilian government was introduced in 2011, ending nearly 50 years of military rule. There is widespread speculation about who will be the next president - and how well the opposition National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, will fare. The BBC's Jonah Fisher in Yangon explains the key issues. |
| Will the vote be democratic? | Will the vote be democratic? |
| That's the idea. But everyone accepts that there will be some pretty serious flaws. The realistic goal for many observers is that it will be "reasonably free and fair" and that the result reflects the will of the people. Given what has gone before that would still be significant progress. | That's the idea. But everyone accepts that there will be some pretty serious flaws. The realistic goal for many observers is that it will be "reasonably free and fair" and that the result reflects the will of the people. Given what has gone before that would still be significant progress. |
| Things haven't got off to smooth start. In the run up to the election campaign voter lists were published, and they've been shown to be woefully inadequate. Dead people have been listed, and many of those alive not included. | Things haven't got off to smooth start. In the run up to the election campaign voter lists were published, and they've been shown to be woefully inadequate. Dead people have been listed, and many of those alive not included. |
| Not all the seats in the Hluttaw (parliament) are up for grabs. The military drafted constitution guarantees that unelected military representatives will take up 25% of the seats in the Hluttaw and have a veto over constitutional change. This is what the generals call "disciplined democracy". | Not all the seats in the Hluttaw (parliament) are up for grabs. The military drafted constitution guarantees that unelected military representatives will take up 25% of the seats in the Hluttaw and have a veto over constitutional change. This is what the generals call "disciplined democracy". |
| How popular is Aung San Suu Kyi's party? | How popular is Aung San Suu Kyi's party? |
| It's hard to say. There are no reliable opinion polls so the only precedents are the two previous occasions that the National League for Democracy's popularity has been put to the test: the annulled 1990 general election and the by-elections of 2012. | It's hard to say. There are no reliable opinion polls so the only precedents are the two previous occasions that the National League for Democracy's popularity has been put to the test: the annulled 1990 general election and the by-elections of 2012. |
| In 1990 the National League for Democracy won 392 of the 492 available seats, taking 52.5% of the national vote. | In 1990 the National League for Democracy won 392 of the 492 available seats, taking 52.5% of the national vote. |
| Fast forward 22 years and the NLD claimed 43 of the 45 seats on offer, accruing about 66% of the available votes. | Fast forward 22 years and the NLD claimed 43 of the 45 seats on offer, accruing about 66% of the available votes. |
| That increase in 2012 doesn't necessarily mean support for the NLD has risen. | That increase in 2012 doesn't necessarily mean support for the NLD has risen. |
| The geographic spread of seats contested in the 2012 by-elections suited the NLD because they were mainly in ethnic Bamar areas. | The geographic spread of seats contested in the 2012 by-elections suited the NLD because they were mainly in ethnic Bamar areas. |
| Though human rights groups have becoming disillusioned with Ms Suu Kyi over her refusal to get drawn into the Rohingya issue, that's unlikely to have much impact with the electorate. So there's no reason to believe her support will have fallen from 2012 levels. | Though human rights groups have becoming disillusioned with Ms Suu Kyi over her refusal to get drawn into the Rohingya issue, that's unlikely to have much impact with the electorate. So there's no reason to believe her support will have fallen from 2012 levels. |
| Is a landslide likely? | Is a landslide likely? |
| It's possible. First-past-the-post (constituency based) electoral systems like Myanmar's make landslides more likely. | It's possible. First-past-the-post (constituency based) electoral systems like Myanmar's make landslides more likely. |
| Take a look at 1990. The NLD won just over half of the popular vote which translated into nearly 80% of the seats. | Take a look at 1990. The NLD won just over half of the popular vote which translated into nearly 80% of the seats. |
| This year's vote has two distinct battlegrounds: in central and southern areas where there is an ethnic Bamar majority, and in the regions along the country's borders, where smaller ethnic groups have localised dominance. | This year's vote has two distinct battlegrounds: in central and southern areas where there is an ethnic Bamar majority, and in the regions along the country's borders, where smaller ethnic groups have localised dominance. |
| In the seven central and southern regions where the Bamar dominate, the NLD are set for a large win. Up for grabs are 291 seats, or 44% of the entire Hluttaw (parliament), and it's possible that the current ruling party the USDP will only win a handful. | In the seven central and southern regions where the Bamar dominate, the NLD are set for a large win. Up for grabs are 291 seats, or 44% of the entire Hluttaw (parliament), and it's possible that the current ruling party the USDP will only win a handful. |
| But that won't give the NLD an overall majority. | But that won't give the NLD an overall majority. |
| So the key battleground for the campaign is going to be in the minority ethnic states where 207 seats (31%) should, stability permitting, be contested. | So the key battleground for the campaign is going to be in the minority ethnic states where 207 seats (31%) should, stability permitting, be contested. |
| Parties based along ethnic lines are likely to win most of the seats but even small gains made by the NLD here could pave the way for an overall majority. | Parties based along ethnic lines are likely to win most of the seats but even small gains made by the NLD here could pave the way for an overall majority. |
| In the last year Aung San Suu Kyi has travelled frequently to these areas, acutely aware of how important they could prove. | In the last year Aung San Suu Kyi has travelled frequently to these areas, acutely aware of how important they could prove. |
| One unknown is the impact of a hardline Buddhist movement, the Ma Ba Tha, in Bamar areas. For the last 18 months it has been running a nationalist campaign arguing that the country's Buddhist identity is under threat from Islam, and that the NLD is the party of the Muslims. | One unknown is the impact of a hardline Buddhist movement, the Ma Ba Tha, in Bamar areas. For the last 18 months it has been running a nationalist campaign arguing that the country's Buddhist identity is under threat from Islam, and that the NLD is the party of the Muslims. |
| The monks have drawn large crowds, but this will be the first test of how deeply their message has resonated. | The monks have drawn large crowds, but this will be the first test of how deeply their message has resonated. |
| How is the president chosen? | How is the president chosen? |
| Indirectly. The 2008 constitution sets out a complex process whereby the Hluttaw (parliament) chooses a president. Though the general election is in November it's likely to be March 2016 before this takes place. | Indirectly. The 2008 constitution sets out a complex process whereby the Hluttaw (parliament) chooses a president. Though the general election is in November it's likely to be March 2016 before this takes place. |
| Firstly the Hluttaw will divide into three groups: the elected representatives of the Lower House, the elected representatives of the Upper House, and the unelected army representatives. | Firstly the Hluttaw will divide into three groups: the elected representatives of the Lower House, the elected representatives of the Upper House, and the unelected army representatives. |
| Each group puts forward a candidate and then the three of them face a vote in a joint session, that includes all the elected and unelected representatives of both Houses. | Each group puts forward a candidate and then the three of them face a vote in a joint session, that includes all the elected and unelected representatives of both Houses. |
| The winner becomes president and the two losers vice-presidents. | |
| What it means in practice is if the NLD want to be able to choose the next president they need their candidate to get the most votes in this joint session. | |
| Could Aung San Suu Kyi become president? | Could Aung San Suu Kyi become president? |
| Aung San Suu Kyi, may well lead her party to a landslide win but she can't become president. Article 59F of the constitution states that if one of your "legitimate children… owes allegiance to a foreign power" you're disqualified. That covers both Ms Suu Kyi's sons Kim and Alexander, who have British passports. | Aung San Suu Kyi, may well lead her party to a landslide win but she can't become president. Article 59F of the constitution states that if one of your "legitimate children… owes allegiance to a foreign power" you're disqualified. That covers both Ms Suu Kyi's sons Kim and Alexander, who have British passports. |
| A crushing win in the election won't help either, as the unelected army representatives can still block attempts to change this clause. So barring a spectacular change of military heart, it won't be President Suu Kyi in 2016. | A crushing win in the election won't help either, as the unelected army representatives can still block attempts to change this clause. So barring a spectacular change of military heart, it won't be President Suu Kyi in 2016. |
| If not President Suu Kyi then who? | If not President Suu Kyi then who? |
| This is where the rumour mill goes into overdrive. | This is where the rumour mill goes into overdrive. |
| It's long been assumed that a deal is in place between Aung San Suu Kyi and the Speaker of the Hluttaw U Shwe Mann. | It's long been assumed that a deal is in place between Aung San Suu Kyi and the Speaker of the Hluttaw U Shwe Mann. |
| Shwe Mann is a former general and the current leader of ruling party the USDP, but in the last year has distanced himself from the army and followed an agenda that's broadly favourable to Ms Suu Kyi. | Shwe Mann is a former general and the current leader of ruling party the USDP, but in the last year has distanced himself from the army and followed an agenda that's broadly favourable to Ms Suu Kyi. |
| That deal might involve the NLD backing Shwe Mann to be president, perhaps for a shortened term, in return for him trying to push through constitutional amendments that reduce military power and make Ms Suu Kyi eligible. | That deal might involve the NLD backing Shwe Mann to be president, perhaps for a shortened term, in return for him trying to push through constitutional amendments that reduce military power and make Ms Suu Kyi eligible. |
| That will pose problems, not least in the way it will appear. If the USDP, as many expect, suffer a crushing defeat at the polls, a Shwe Mann presidency is going to look like a rather grubby backroom deal. | That will pose problems, not least in the way it will appear. If the USDP, as many expect, suffer a crushing defeat at the polls, a Shwe Mann presidency is going to look like a rather grubby backroom deal. |
| Despite that many see this as the most likely option and a USDP/NLD coalition would deliver stability and retain much needed expertise. | Despite that many see this as the most likely option and a USDP/NLD coalition would deliver stability and retain much needed expertise. |
| Until very recently it had been assumed that if Ms Suu Kyi was blocked from the presidency, no one else from within her party could do the job. | Until very recently it had been assumed that if Ms Suu Kyi was blocked from the presidency, no one else from within her party could do the job. |
| Now the NLD has decided that it will have its own presidential candidate. This may simply be a negotiating ploy, but two names have been touted in the media. | Now the NLD has decided that it will have its own presidential candidate. This may simply be a negotiating ploy, but two names have been touted in the media. |
| The first is nine months older than the Thai king, and a year younger than Queen Elizabeth. | The first is nine months older than the Thai king, and a year younger than Queen Elizabeth. |
| Aged 89, Tin Oo is a former Commander in Chief of the Burmese army and a founding member of the NLD. He's sharp for his age, but since his name was linked he's said he's not interested. Even allowing for modesty, Tin Oo would be a strange choice. | Aged 89, Tin Oo is a former Commander in Chief of the Burmese army and a founding member of the NLD. He's sharp for his age, but since his name was linked he's said he's not interested. Even allowing for modesty, Tin Oo would be a strange choice. |
| The second name mentioned is Win Htein, a former military officer and close confidant of Suu Kyi. A relative youngster at 74, he's risked the scorn of hardline monks by speaking in defence of Muslims in his constituency of Meiktila. But his health is not thought to be good. | The second name mentioned is Win Htein, a former military officer and close confidant of Suu Kyi. A relative youngster at 74, he's risked the scorn of hardline monks by speaking in defence of Muslims in his constituency of Meiktila. But his health is not thought to be good. |
| Of course it may not end up in the NLD's hands. With a quarter of seats occupied by the army, an anti-NLD coalition only needs a third of the elected seats to control the destiny of the Presidency. | Of course it may not end up in the NLD's hands. With a quarter of seats occupied by the army, an anti-NLD coalition only needs a third of the elected seats to control the destiny of the Presidency. |
| If that was to happen the most likely "army candidate" would be the current President Thein Sein. It doesn't look like he'll stand as an MP but that doesn't matter constitutionally and all the indications are that he's "ready to serve" if asked to carry on. | If that was to happen the most likely "army candidate" would be the current President Thein Sein. It doesn't look like he'll stand as an MP but that doesn't matter constitutionally and all the indications are that he's "ready to serve" if asked to carry on. |
| Alternatives might be the current Commander in Chief Min Aung Hlaing, who is rumoured to be preparing a move into politics. | Alternatives might be the current Commander in Chief Min Aung Hlaing, who is rumoured to be preparing a move into politics. |
| You may a have spotted a common theme here. Put your money on the next president having a military background. | You may a have spotted a common theme here. Put your money on the next president having a military background. |
| Just how powerful is the president? | Just how powerful is the president? |
| Not as powerful as you might think. | Not as powerful as you might think. |
| Key security ministries (Defence, Home Affairs and Border Affairs) are selected by the head of the army, not the president, and there can be no change to the constitution without military approval. | Key security ministries (Defence, Home Affairs and Border Affairs) are selected by the head of the army, not the president, and there can be no change to the constitution without military approval. |
| One of the themes of the last five years has been the emergence of the Hluttaw as an important political force. | One of the themes of the last five years has been the emergence of the Hluttaw as an important political force. |
| It will become more vocal and assertive after this election and has the power to push through legislation against the president's wishes if it wants. | It will become more vocal and assertive after this election and has the power to push through legislation against the president's wishes if it wants. |