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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/oct/16/markets-rally-us-rate-hike-volkswagen-sales-business-live
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| Markets rally as investors see no early US rate hike - business live | Markets rally as investors see no early US rate hike - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 8.13am BST08:13 | |
| Yesterday’s US inflation data is also helping to push money into shares. | |
| Prices fell by 0.2% month-on-month in September, leaving the price of living unchanged year on year. | |
| “Money managers are saying it looks increasingly like the Fed will not hike because the data around the world is coming in weak,” Mads Pedersen, head of global asset allocation at UBS Wealth Management, told the Wall Street Journal. | |
| “Lukewarm data is good for equities again, just like it has been for most of this recovery.” | |
| 7.56am BST07:56 | |
| A flurry of weak corporate data in recent days has left most economists convinced that the Fed won’t raise interest rates at its monetary policy meeting later this month. | |
| This week we’ve seen falling profits at Goldman Sachs, a profit warning from Walmart, and even falling demand for high end Winnebagos as US consumers cut back. | |
| And earlier this month, the US employment figures were a big disappointment - with much fewer new jobs created than expected (just 142,000). | |
| That doesn’t add up to the first rise in US interest rates since the financial crisis began. | |
| David Levy, portfolio manager at Kenjol Capital Management, explains: | |
| “Investors are reacting to the increasing likelihood that the Fed rate hike, which had been expected just a month ago in September, now likely won’t happen during the course of this year.” | |
| 7.50am BST07:50 | |
| There’s also talk in the markets that the Chinese government could announce fresh stimulus measures soon. | |
| Pressure on Beijing could grow on Monday, when Chinese GDP figures are released. Economists predict that growth slowed to 6.8% in the last quarter, down from 7% in Q2. | |
| 7.43am BST07:43 | 7.43am BST07:43 |
| Asian markets hit two-month highs | Asian markets hit two-month highs |
| Asia-Pacific stock markets have hit their highest level in two months, as traders in Tokyo, Shanghai and Melbourne anticipate that the era of ultra-low global interest rates isn’t over yet. | Asia-Pacific stock markets have hit their highest level in two months, as traders in Tokyo, Shanghai and Melbourne anticipate that the era of ultra-low global interest rates isn’t over yet. |
| Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1%, on hopes that the US Federal Reserve isn’t going to end the party this month. Other stock markets in the region are also showing gains: | Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1%, on hopes that the US Federal Reserve isn’t going to end the party this month. Other stock markets in the region are also showing gains: |
| 7.16am BST07:16 | 7.16am BST07:16 |
| The Agenda: Markets to rally on US Fed hopes | The Agenda: Markets to rally on US Fed hopes |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Investors will be watching the US economy closely today, for signs that the world’s largest economy may be slowing. There are two pieces of economic data on the agenda: | Investors will be watching the US economy closely today, for signs that the world’s largest economy may be slowing. There are two pieces of economic data on the agenda: |
| Economists reckon the figures might be weak, as Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains: | Economists reckon the figures might be weak, as Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains: |
| Today’s US industrial and manufacturing production data for September are expected to reinforce the disappointing narrative with declines in both of -0.3% and -0.2% respectively, both of which would be negative for the second month in succession. | Today’s US industrial and manufacturing production data for September are expected to reinforce the disappointing narrative with declines in both of -0.3% and -0.2% respectively, both of which would be negative for the second month in succession. |
| And negative economic data looks good for stocks right now.... | And negative economic data looks good for stocks right now.... |
| ...so shares in Europe are expected to rise, as traders bet that the US Federal Reserve could leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year. | ...so shares in Europe are expected to rise, as traders bet that the US Federal Reserve could leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year. |
| As Hewson puts it, with the data so mixed.... | As Hewson puts it, with the data so mixed.... |
| .... is hard to see how policymakers can arrive at a consensus for what would be a momentous decision of being the first rise in US rates for 9 years. No-one will want to be remembered for getting a call of that magnitude wrong. | .... is hard to see how policymakers can arrive at a consensus for what would be a momentous decision of being the first rise in US rates for 9 years. No-one will want to be remembered for getting a call of that magnitude wrong. |
| Our European opening calls: $FTSE 6386 up 47 $DAX 10150 up 85 $CAC 4714 up 39 $IBEX 10215 up 113 $MIB 22403 up 185 | Our European opening calls: $FTSE 6386 up 47 $DAX 10150 up 85 $CAC 4714 up 39 $IBEX 10215 up 113 $MIB 22403 up 185 |
| There’s also financial results from foodmaker Nestlé, French supermarket Carrefour, and UK retailer John Lewis (of which more shortly....). | There’s also financial results from foodmaker Nestlé, French supermarket Carrefour, and UK retailer John Lewis (of which more shortly....). |
| Updated at 7.31am BST | Updated at 7.31am BST |