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| Version 18 | Version 19 |
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| US consumer confidence beats forecasts: worldmarkets move higher - as it happened | US consumer confidence beats forecasts: worldmarkets move higher - as it happened |
| (about 20 hours later) | |
| 5.53pm BST | 5.53pm BST |
| 17:53 | 17:53 |
| Closing summary | Closing summary |
| Despite worries about the global economy and volatile stock markets, US consumers appear more confident than analysts had expected, but industrial production in the country fell for the second month in a row. | Despite worries about the global economy and volatile stock markets, US consumers appear more confident than analysts had expected, but industrial production in the country fell for the second month in a row. |
| Meanwhile hopes that the US Federal reserve would decide not to raise interest rates this year after all helped stock markets end the week on a positive note. | Meanwhile hopes that the US Federal reserve would decide not to raise interest rates this year after all helped stock markets end the week on a positive note. |
| In the UK, Bank of England policy maker Kristin Forbes said in a speech in Brighton that fears about emerging markets were overdone, and the next move in UK interest rates was up - and not far off at that. Not all of her colleagues at the Bank agree, however. | In the UK, Bank of England policy maker Kristin Forbes said in a speech in Brighton that fears about emerging markets were overdone, and the next move in UK interest rates was up - and not far off at that. Not all of her colleagues at the Bank agree, however. |
| Meanwhile the eurozone slumped back into negative inflation, putting more pressure on the European Central Bank - which meets next week - to extend its quantitative easing programme. | Meanwhile the eurozone slumped back into negative inflation, putting more pressure on the European Central Bank - which meets next week - to extend its quantitative easing programme. |
| On that note, it’s time to close up for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back again on Monday. | On that note, it’s time to close up for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back again on Monday. |
| 5.12pm BST | 5.12pm BST |
| 17:12 | 17:12 |
| European shares end week on a positive note | European shares end week on a positive note |
| Investors have suffered another volatile week, with shares hit initially by further poor Chinese data before recovering ground on hopes that the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates this year after all. Markets ended the week on a firmer note however, with the expectation of further support from central banks outweighing - for the moment - concerns about global growth. But with Chinese GDP figures due on Monday and the latest European Central Bank meeting due on Thursday, the uncertainty is not likely to end just yet. | Investors have suffered another volatile week, with shares hit initially by further poor Chinese data before recovering ground on hopes that the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates this year after all. Markets ended the week on a firmer note however, with the expectation of further support from central banks outweighing - for the moment - concerns about global growth. But with Chinese GDP figures due on Monday and the latest European Central Bank meeting due on Thursday, the uncertainty is not likely to end just yet. |
| But for the moment world markets, as measured by the MSCI world index, are at two month highs while the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 rose to its highest level in five weeks. The final scores elsewhere showed: | But for the moment world markets, as measured by the MSCI world index, are at two month highs while the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 rose to its highest level in five weeks. The final scores elsewhere showed: |
| On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently 32 points or 0.18% higher. | On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently 32 points or 0.18% higher. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 5.37pm BST | at 5.37pm BST |
| 3.44pm BST | 3.44pm BST |
| 15:44 | 15:44 |
| The day’s US economic news offers a mixed message, which is not helpful in gauging when the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, sayd James Knightley of ING Bank: | The day’s US economic news offers a mixed message, which is not helpful in gauging when the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, sayd James Knightley of ING Bank: |
| [The] data has been a bit of a mixed bag with industrial production falling 0.2% month on month, in line with expectations, although there was a three tenths of a percentage point upward revision to August’s figure (to -0.1% from -0.4% month on month). Still, in aggregate, output is only up 0.4% year on year. Mining remains the main drag given the plunge in oil prices has resulted in a steep drilling decline while dollar strength and weak external demand are contributors to manufacturing softness. | [The] data has been a bit of a mixed bag with industrial production falling 0.2% month on month, in line with expectations, although there was a three tenths of a percentage point upward revision to August’s figure (to -0.1% from -0.4% month on month). Still, in aggregate, output is only up 0.4% year on year. Mining remains the main drag given the plunge in oil prices has resulted in a steep drilling decline while dollar strength and weak external demand are contributors to manufacturing softness. |
| However, there was better news elsewhere with University of Michigan consumer confidence for October rising to 92.1 from 87.2, which was above the 89.0 consensus expectation. Both the current conditions and expectations components rose, which suggests that households are in decent financial shape and are willing to spend as we head towards holiday season. | However, there was better news elsewhere with University of Michigan consumer confidence for October rising to 92.1 from 87.2, which was above the 89.0 consensus expectation. Both the current conditions and expectations components rose, which suggests that households are in decent financial shape and are willing to spend as we head towards holiday season. |
| There was also some reasonably encouraging news from the Job openings data. While the actual number of new job openings fell, the trend is still upwards and the hiring rate and quit rate numbers suggest that job turnover is rising, which typically bodes well for higher wage growth. The key question is whether we see this materialise in the employment reports in the next couple of months. If not, the Fed doves will win the argument and there won’t be a Fed rate hike this year. | There was also some reasonably encouraging news from the Job openings data. While the actual number of new job openings fell, the trend is still upwards and the hiring rate and quit rate numbers suggest that job turnover is rising, which typically bodes well for higher wage growth. The key question is whether we see this materialise in the employment reports in the next couple of months. If not, the Fed doves will win the argument and there won’t be a Fed rate hike this year. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.58pm BST | at 3.58pm BST |
| 3.26pm BST | 3.26pm BST |
| 15:26 | 15:26 |
| There were 1.5 job seekers for every opening in Aug--up a hair from July but still below prerecrisis levels. #JOLTS pic.twitter.com/wBKqEE8nB8 | There were 1.5 job seekers for every opening in Aug--up a hair from July but still below prerecrisis levels. #JOLTS pic.twitter.com/wBKqEE8nB8 |
| Job openings are up 125% since end of recession, but actual hiring up less than 40%. #JOLTS pic.twitter.com/bTvTprGR8H | Job openings are up 125% since end of recession, but actual hiring up less than 40%. #JOLTS pic.twitter.com/bTvTprGR8H |
| 3.08pm BST | 3.08pm BST |
| 15:08 | 15:08 |
| More data from the US, this time showing the number of job openings falling from 5.66m in July to 5.37m in August. | More data from the US, this time showing the number of job openings falling from 5.66m in July to 5.37m in August. |
| Job openings fell in August. Hires,quits basically flat. Not great signs for the job market. (Not awful either) #JOLTS | Job openings fell in August. Hires,quits basically flat. Not great signs for the job market. (Not awful either) #JOLTS |
| 3.02pm BST | 3.02pm BST |
| 15:02 | 15:02 |
| US consumer confidence index beats expectations | US consumer confidence index beats expectations |
| American consumers are more confident than analysts had expected, according to the latest University of Michigan sentiment survey. | American consumers are more confident than analysts had expected, according to the latest University of Michigan sentiment survey. |
| The preliminary index for October came in at 92.1 compared to expectations of 89 and a final September reading of 87.2. Last month’s initial reading was lower at 85.7. | The preliminary index for October came in at 92.1 compared to expectations of 89 and a final September reading of 87.2. Last month’s initial reading was lower at 85.7. |
| This is the first increase in four months. | This is the first increase in four months. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.10pm BST | at 3.10pm BST |
| 2.56pm BST | 2.56pm BST |
| 14:56 | 14:56 |
| Jill Treanor | Jill Treanor |
| Here’s our report on rogue trader Kweku Adoboli, who was today banned from working in the City for a scam that cost UBS £1.5bn. | Here’s our report on rogue trader Kweku Adoboli, who was today banned from working in the City for a scam that cost UBS £1.5bn. |
| The Financial Conduct Authority barred Adoboli from working in the financial professions after finding he was “not a fit and proper person to perform any functions as his conduct demonstrates a serious lack of honesty, integrity and reputation”. | The Financial Conduct Authority barred Adoboli from working in the financial professions after finding he was “not a fit and proper person to perform any functions as his conduct demonstrates a serious lack of honesty, integrity and reputation”. |
| The Ghanaian citizen was released from Maidstone prison in Kent in June, halfway through his sentence, having been convicted on two counts of fraud over what was described at the time as the biggest scam in UK history. He was acquitted on four separate charges of false accounting. | The Ghanaian citizen was released from Maidstone prison in Kent in June, halfway through his sentence, having been convicted on two counts of fraud over what was described at the time as the biggest scam in UK history. He was acquitted on four separate charges of false accounting. |
| In a statement, he said: “This prohibition order marks the closing of a difficult chapter for me. I fully recognise the reasons for my prohibition and thank the FCA for their restraint. My hope now is to move forward in a positive way to help others learn from the mistakes I’ve made.” | In a statement, he said: “This prohibition order marks the closing of a difficult chapter for me. I fully recognise the reasons for my prohibition and thank the FCA for their restraint. My hope now is to move forward in a positive way to help others learn from the mistakes I’ve made.” |
| He is fighting deportation from the UK – where he was once head boy at a Quaker boarding school in Yorkshire – and hopes to give advice on preventing fraud in the future. | He is fighting deportation from the UK – where he was once head boy at a Quaker boarding school in Yorkshire – and hopes to give advice on preventing fraud in the future. |
| Full story here: | Full story here: |
| Related: Rogue trader behind biggest UK fraud banned from working in City | Related: Rogue trader behind biggest UK fraud banned from working in City |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.58pm BST | at 2.58pm BST |
| 2.48pm BST | 2.48pm BST |
| 14:48 | 14:48 |
| Ahead of the latest University of Michigan confidence survey, here’s how things have been looking over the past few years, courtesy Bloomberg: | Ahead of the latest University of Michigan confidence survey, here’s how things have been looking over the past few years, courtesy Bloomberg: |
| U.S. Consumer Confidence Surveys (UMich out in 20 minutes) pic.twitter.com/rrzdRMy3Su | U.S. Consumer Confidence Surveys (UMich out in 20 minutes) pic.twitter.com/rrzdRMy3Su |
| 2.44pm BST | 2.44pm BST |
| 14:44 | 14:44 |
| Wall Street is following in the wake of other global markets and moving higher in early trading. | Wall Street is following in the wake of other global markets and moving higher in early trading. |
| The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up around 34 points or 0.2%, continuing its strong run helped by better than expected results from industrial group’s General Electric and Honeywell. The S&P 500 is currently 0.16% higher. | The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up around 34 points or 0.2%, continuing its strong run helped by better than expected results from industrial group’s General Electric and Honeywell. The S&P 500 is currently 0.16% higher. |
| GE reported a 29% fall in earnings to $2.51bn but this was better than analysts’ expectations. It saw declines in its oil and gas business but these were offset by the performance of its jet engine and power turbine operations. | GE reported a 29% fall in earnings to $2.51bn but this was better than analysts’ expectations. It saw declines in its oil and gas business but these were offset by the performance of its jet engine and power turbine operations. |
| 2.21pm BST | 2.21pm BST |
| 14:21 | 14:21 |
| US industrial production slips in September | US industrial production slips in September |
| Every piece of US data is now watched carefully to see how it might influence the US Federal Reserve in its interest rate policy. | Every piece of US data is now watched carefully to see how it might influence the US Federal Reserve in its interest rate policy. |
| But there is not too much to glean from the latest figures. US industrial production dipped 0.2% in September, in line with expectations. August’s figure was revised to show a 0.1% decline compared to the 0.4% fall originally reported. | But there is not too much to glean from the latest figures. US industrial production dipped 0.2% in September, in line with expectations. August’s figure was revised to show a 0.1% decline compared to the 0.4% fall originally reported. |
| Weakness in the oil and gas sector was mainly responsible for the fall. | Weakness in the oil and gas sector was mainly responsible for the fall. |
| Later comes the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey. | Later comes the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey. |
| US #INDUSTRIAL #PRODUCTION in-line: -0.2%; not a picture of health, but last mth revised up=slightly #USD bullish. $ ticks higher | US #INDUSTRIAL #PRODUCTION in-line: -0.2%; not a picture of health, but last mth revised up=slightly #USD bullish. $ ticks higher |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.47pm BST | at 2.47pm BST |
| 1.53pm BST | 1.53pm BST |
| 13:53 | 13:53 |
| Now here’s an admission. Credit Suisse has said its clients have no idea what is going on out there in the markets. They are “lost and bearish.” The bank says: | Now here’s an admission. Credit Suisse has said its clients have no idea what is going on out there in the markets. They are “lost and bearish.” The bank says: |
| Never have we seen so many clients who just do not know what is happening and have cashed up. US investors, in particular, were clearly cautious. European and especially Asian investors were more constructive. | Never have we seen so many clients who just do not know what is happening and have cashed up. US investors, in particular, were clearly cautious. European and especially Asian investors were more constructive. |
| Reasons for the bearishness: Global growth being at ‘growth recession’ levels, China, QE running out of steam, the rise in non-energy high yield credit spreads, the risk of the Fed policy mistake (with most clients believing, correctly in our opinion, that a December rate rise would be a policy mistake and see Yellen’s communication as being poor), US equities being expensive on ‘normalised’ earnings and the 4-week moving average of earnings revisions falling close to a 4-year low. | Reasons for the bearishness: Global growth being at ‘growth recession’ levels, China, QE running out of steam, the rise in non-energy high yield credit spreads, the risk of the Fed policy mistake (with most clients believing, correctly in our opinion, that a December rate rise would be a policy mistake and see Yellen’s communication as being poor), US equities being expensive on ‘normalised’ earnings and the 4-week moving average of earnings revisions falling close to a 4-year low. |
| Two new concerns often cropped up: (i) the $0.5trn decline in global foreign exchange reserves, with this being likened to monetary tightening...[But] 80% of the decline is due to China, where the fall is largely being sterilised. (ii) The rising political tide against profits (living wage in the UK, the BEPS OECD initiative on corporate taxation). | Two new concerns often cropped up: (i) the $0.5trn decline in global foreign exchange reserves, with this being likened to monetary tightening...[But] 80% of the decline is due to China, where the fall is largely being sterilised. (ii) The rising political tide against profits (living wage in the UK, the BEPS OECD initiative on corporate taxation). |
| What was not mentioned: Eurozone politics, US debt ceiling, Russia’s involvement in Syria or the UK referendum on the EU. | What was not mentioned: Eurozone politics, US debt ceiling, Russia’s involvement in Syria or the UK referendum on the EU. |
| In sum, we think clients are focused more on risks, which are abnormally high, rather than reward, which is also high, with the equity risk premium, for example, at 5.8%. We would agree, however, that visibility is abnormally low. | In sum, we think clients are focused more on risks, which are abnormally high, rather than reward, which is also high, with the equity risk premium, for example, at 5.8%. We would agree, however, that visibility is abnormally low. |
| 1.38pm BST | 1.38pm BST |
| 13:38 | 13:38 |
| Chinese investors appear to have regained their appetite for risk. | Chinese investors appear to have regained their appetite for risk. |
| The Shanghai Composite Index gained 6.5% this week, helped by speculation that Beijing might do more to stimulate its economy. | The Shanghai Composite Index gained 6.5% this week, helped by speculation that Beijing might do more to stimulate its economy. |
| Some bolder traders have been borrowing more money to buy shares, anticipating that markets are going to rally this autumn. | Some bolder traders have been borrowing more money to buy shares, anticipating that markets are going to rally this autumn. |
| Xiao Shijun, an analyst at Guodu Securities, explains (via the WSJ): | Xiao Shijun, an analyst at Guodu Securities, explains (via the WSJ): |
| “Some medium- to long-term investors are betting that the market has bottomed and thus are more confident to add leverage.” | “Some medium- to long-term investors are betting that the market has bottomed and thus are more confident to add leverage.” |
| And there are signs that the authorities have relaxed their recent clampdown on lending, which was imposed to calm excessive speculation. | And there are signs that the authorities have relaxed their recent clampdown on lending, which was imposed to calm excessive speculation. |
| China’s outstanding margin financing has risen 5.6% since the start of the month and looks to have bottomed, according to IG’s Angus Nicholson. | China’s outstanding margin financing has risen 5.6% since the start of the month and looks to have bottomed, according to IG’s Angus Nicholson. |
| 1.12pm BST | 1.12pm BST |
| 13:12 | 13:12 |
| Ever wondered what you have to do to get banned from the City? | Ever wondered what you have to do to get banned from the City? |
| Well, running up losses of £1.4bn through rogue trading will do the trick. | Well, running up losses of £1.4bn through rogue trading will do the trick. |
| The Financial Conduct Authority - Britain’s City watchdog - has declared today that former UBS trader Kweku Adoboli cannot work in the industry again after demonstrating “a clear and serious lack of honesty and integrity.” | The Financial Conduct Authority - Britain’s City watchdog - has declared today that former UBS trader Kweku Adoboli cannot work in the industry again after demonstrating “a clear and serious lack of honesty and integrity.” |
| It added: | It added: |
| “In reaching its decision, the FCA has considered all the relevant circumstances and the severity of the risk posed by Mr Adoboli to consumers and financial institutions, and to confidence in the market generally.” | “In reaching its decision, the FCA has considered all the relevant circumstances and the severity of the risk posed by Mr Adoboli to consumers and financial institutions, and to confidence in the market generally.” |
| Adoboli was released from prison this summer, having been sentenced to seven years in 2012 for Britain’s biggest ever fraud. He is now fighting efforts to deport him to Ghana, where he was born in 1980. | Adoboli was released from prison this summer, having been sentenced to seven years in 2012 for Britain’s biggest ever fraud. He is now fighting efforts to deport him to Ghana, where he was born in 1980. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.28pm BST | at 1.28pm BST |
| 12.28pm BST | 12.28pm BST |
| 12:28 | 12:28 |
| Kristin Forbes’ speech today highlights that the Bank of England’s interest rate-setting committee is split into several camps, even though it voted 8-1 to leave borrowing costs unchanged last week. | Kristin Forbes’ speech today highlights that the Bank of England’s interest rate-setting committee is split into several camps, even though it voted 8-1 to leave borrowing costs unchanged last week. |
| IHS’s Howard Archer has broken them down: | IHS’s Howard Archer has broken them down: |
| The current position seems to be that Ian McCafferty is already voting for interest rate hike from 0.50% to 0.75%, while Kristin Forbes and (seemingly still) Martin Weale both believe interest rates need to rise before long. | The current position seems to be that Ian McCafferty is already voting for interest rate hike from 0.50% to 0.75%, while Kristin Forbes and (seemingly still) Martin Weale both believe interest rates need to rise before long. |
| In contrast, Andy Haldane and Gertjan Vlieghe are clearly far off from voting for a rate hike while Ben Broadbent has also recently indicated that he is some way off from such a move. | In contrast, Andy Haldane and Gertjan Vlieghe are clearly far off from voting for a rate hike while Ben Broadbent has also recently indicated that he is some way off from such a move. |
| That leaves governor Mark Carney, and deputy governors Minouche Shafik and Jon Cunliffe in the centre ground. | That leaves governor Mark Carney, and deputy governors Minouche Shafik and Jon Cunliffe in the centre ground. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.34pm BST | at 12.34pm BST |
| 11.25am BST | 11.25am BST |
| 11:25 | 11:25 |
| Bank of England's Forbes: Emerging market doom and gloom is “overblown” | Bank of England's Forbes: Emerging market doom and gloom is “overblown” |
| Katie Allen | Katie Allen |
| Capping off a busy week for views out of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee, Kristin Forbes is giving a speech in Brighton. | Capping off a busy week for views out of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee, Kristin Forbes is giving a speech in Brighton. |
| The key message for markets from Forbes is that the next move in rates is up and is not too far off. | The key message for markets from Forbes is that the next move in rates is up and is not too far off. |
| That puts her at odds with the Bank’s chief economist Andy Haldane who has raised the prospect of the next move being down, even further below the current record low Bank rate of 0.5%. | That puts her at odds with the Bank’s chief economist Andy Haldane who has raised the prospect of the next move being down, even further below the current record low Bank rate of 0.5%. |
| Forbes says, however, that pessimism about the global economy is overdone. | Forbes says, however, that pessimism about the global economy is overdone. |
| Kristin Forbes says despite increased risks the current “gloom and doom” on emerging markets is “overblown” http://t.co/SnyNwS3fZj | Kristin Forbes says despite increased risks the current “gloom and doom” on emerging markets is “overblown” http://t.co/SnyNwS3fZj |
| Forbes, who is also professor of Management and Global Economics at MIT’s Sloan School of Management, told the Brighton and Hove Chamber of Commerce that: | Forbes, who is also professor of Management and Global Economics at MIT’s Sloan School of Management, told the Brighton and Hove Chamber of Commerce that: |
| “Although the risks and uncertainties in the global economy have increased, the widespread pessimism is overstated.” | “Although the risks and uncertainties in the global economy have increased, the widespread pessimism is overstated.” |
| “Despite the doom and gloom sentiment, the news on the international economy has not caused me to adjust my prior expectations that the next move in UK interest rates will be up and that it will occur sooner rather than later.” | “Despite the doom and gloom sentiment, the news on the international economy has not caused me to adjust my prior expectations that the next move in UK interest rates will be up and that it will occur sooner rather than later.” |
| “Of course, if some of the potential risks to emerging markets play out – such as a sharper slowdown than expected or financial crisis of some type – then the UK economy is unlikely to be immune. But based on what has actually occurred to date, the limited direct exposure of the UK to emerging markets (even when incorporating second-round effects through other countries such as Germany), appears manageable. This is especially true when considered relative to the strength of the UK’s domestic-led expansion – which shows all signs of continuing, even if at a more moderate pace than in the earlier stages of the recovery.” | “Of course, if some of the potential risks to emerging markets play out – such as a sharper slowdown than expected or financial crisis of some type – then the UK economy is unlikely to be immune. But based on what has actually occurred to date, the limited direct exposure of the UK to emerging markets (even when incorporating second-round effects through other countries such as Germany), appears manageable. This is especially true when considered relative to the strength of the UK’s domestic-led expansion – which shows all signs of continuing, even if at a more moderate pace than in the earlier stages of the recovery.” |
| At its last meeting, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left rates at a record low of 0.5%. But one of the nine rate-setters, Ian McCafferty, voted for a rate rise. Perhaps Forbes will be joining him soon.... | At its last meeting, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left rates at a record low of 0.5%. But one of the nine rate-setters, Ian McCafferty, voted for a rate rise. Perhaps Forbes will be joining him soon.... |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.30am BST | at 11.30am BST |
| 11.22am BST | 11.22am BST |
| 11:22 | 11:22 |
| El-Erian: Fed could hike in December | El-Erian: Fed could hike in December |
| Investors who believe the Federal Reserve won’t raise rates this year could be making a mistake, argues Mohamed El-Erian, the chief economic adviser at Allianz. | Investors who believe the Federal Reserve won’t raise rates this year could be making a mistake, argues Mohamed El-Erian, the chief economic adviser at Allianz. |
| El-Erian, former CEO of bond-trading giant Pimco, believes that that Janet Yellen and colleagues could take the plunge at their meeting in December, given the strength of the US jobs market. | El-Erian, former CEO of bond-trading giant Pimco, believes that that Janet Yellen and colleagues could take the plunge at their meeting in December, given the strength of the US jobs market. |
| He’s written his views up for Bloomberg. Here’s the conclusion: | He’s written his views up for Bloomberg. Here’s the conclusion: |
| After a frustratingly slow post-crisis start, the U.S. economy has had an impressive run of job creation. But further progress is dependent on important structural issues that are not easily addressed by Fed policy. | After a frustratingly slow post-crisis start, the U.S. economy has had an impressive run of job creation. But further progress is dependent on important structural issues that are not easily addressed by Fed policy. |
| Meanwhile, wage and inflation pressures are starting to build, though in a rather modest fashion. And concerns about excessive risk-taking -- an unintended side effect of the central bank’s prolonged use of unconventional monetary policy -- are far from settled. | Meanwhile, wage and inflation pressures are starting to build, though in a rather modest fashion. And concerns about excessive risk-taking -- an unintended side effect of the central bank’s prolonged use of unconventional monetary policy -- are far from settled. |
| Taken together, this suggests that, even though an October rate hike can almost certainly be discounted, it would be premature to entirely rule out action by the Fed in December, let alone to predict it would be postponed until March of next year. Only a lot more signs of weakness in the domestic economy, as well as a return of global financial market instability, would make that a sure bet. | Taken together, this suggests that, even though an October rate hike can almost certainly be discounted, it would be premature to entirely rule out action by the Fed in December, let alone to predict it would be postponed until March of next year. Only a lot more signs of weakness in the domestic economy, as well as a return of global financial market instability, would make that a sure bet. |
| FYI, not so fast when it comes to March rather than December for @FederalReserve rate hike. Here’s why http://t.co/M7JajYgnbQ @BV #economy | FYI, not so fast when it comes to March rather than December for @FederalReserve rate hike. Here’s why http://t.co/M7JajYgnbQ @BV #economy |
| 11.05am BST | 11.05am BST |
| 11:05 | 11:05 |
| World markets hit two-month high on stimulus hopes | World markets hit two-month high on stimulus hopes |
| World stock markets have hit their highest levels since August, driven by predictions that US interest rates are staying low for a while yet. | World stock markets have hit their highest levels since August, driven by predictions that US interest rates are staying low for a while yet. |
| The main European indices have all gained nearly 1% this morning, following those gains in Asia overnight and a rally on Wall Street yesterday. | The main European indices have all gained nearly 1% this morning, following those gains in Asia overnight and a rally on Wall Street yesterday. |
| That has pushed the MSCI World Index up by 1.38% to levels not seen since August 21. | That has pushed the MSCI World Index up by 1.38% to levels not seen since August 21. |
| Global markets have now gained 6% in October. So unless there’s a major reverse next week, the MSCI will post its best month since 2011. | Global markets have now gained 6% in October. So unless there’s a major reverse next week, the MSCI will post its best month since 2011. |
| That’s quite a bounceback from this summer’s turmoil, which saw around $11 trillion wiped off global stocks. | That’s quite a bounceback from this summer’s turmoil, which saw around $11 trillion wiped off global stocks. |
| The prospect of more ultraloose monetary policy, plus a little more calm over China’s slowdown, are pushing shares up. | The prospect of more ultraloose monetary policy, plus a little more calm over China’s slowdown, are pushing shares up. |
| Jasper Lawler of CMC Markets says traders are anticipating more stimulus in Europe and China, rather than worrying about the Fed whipping away the punchbowl with an early rate hike: | Jasper Lawler of CMC Markets says traders are anticipating more stimulus in Europe and China, rather than worrying about the Fed whipping away the punchbowl with an early rate hike: |
| Hopes of a delayed rate hike in the US and additional stimulus from Europe and China is helping global stock markets finish the week on a high. Shares across Asia have hit a two month high while the Shanghai Composite is setting up for its best weekly performance since early June. | Hopes of a delayed rate hike in the US and additional stimulus from Europe and China is helping global stock markets finish the week on a high. Shares across Asia have hit a two month high while the Shanghai Composite is setting up for its best weekly performance since early June. |
| Weak US inflation data, albeit above expectations, further bruised the case for a Federal Reserve rate rise. Markets are looking ahead to next week when the ECB meeting and China’s GDP report provide opportunities for the European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China to increase stimulus. | Weak US inflation data, albeit above expectations, further bruised the case for a Federal Reserve rate rise. Markets are looking ahead to next week when the ECB meeting and China’s GDP report provide opportunities for the European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China to increase stimulus. |
| Here’s the situation. | Here’s the situation. |
| 10.26am BST | 10.26am BST |
| 10:26 | 10:26 |
| Uber is not illegal, rules High Court | Uber is not illegal, rules High Court |
| Minicab-hailing app Uber has just won a victory in the high court. | Minicab-hailing app Uber has just won a victory in the high court. |
| A judge has ruled that its GPS technology does not break violate the Private Hire Vehicles (London) Act 1998 bans private hire cars from being equipped with taximeters. | A judge has ruled that its GPS technology does not break violate the Private Hire Vehicles (London) Act 1998 bans private hire cars from being equipped with taximeters. |
| BREAKING: #Uber is NOT illegal according to a High Court ruling made today. | BREAKING: #Uber is NOT illegal according to a High Court ruling made today. |
| My colleague David Hellier explains: | My colleague David Hellier explains: |
| Had it lost the case, the company would have been forced to change its service to comply with rules that protect traditional black-cab drivers. | Had it lost the case, the company would have been forced to change its service to comply with rules that protect traditional black-cab drivers. |
| Here’s the full story: | Here’s the full story: |
| Related: Uber wins high court case over taxi app | Related: Uber wins high court case over taxi app |
| 10.17am BST | 10.17am BST |
| 10:17 | 10:17 |
| Eurozone back in negative inflation | Eurozone back in negative inflation |
| It’s official, the eurozone has slumped back in negative inflation again, intensifying pressure on the European Central Bank to act. | It’s official, the eurozone has slumped back in negative inflation again, intensifying pressure on the European Central Bank to act. |
| Eurostat has confirmed that prices across the euro area fell by 0.1% in September, down from an inflation rate of +0.1% in August. | Eurostat has confirmed that prices across the euro area fell by 0.1% in September, down from an inflation rate of +0.1% in August. |
| The decline is mainly due to weak energy prices. Cheaper oil is driving down the costs of fuel -- good news for consumers and business, but it does drag the eurozone inflation rate further from the 2% target. | The decline is mainly due to weak energy prices. Cheaper oil is driving down the costs of fuel -- good news for consumers and business, but it does drag the eurozone inflation rate further from the 2% target. |
| Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight explains: | Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight explains: |
| This marked the first deflation since March and was down from consumer price inflation of 0.1% in August and 0.3% in May. | This marked the first deflation since March and was down from consumer price inflation of 0.1% in August and 0.3% in May. |
| A marked relapse in oil prices and very weak commodity prices first undermined and then reversed the upward trend in Eurozone consumer prices that had seen it move from deflation of 0.6% in January to inflation of 0.3% in May. | A marked relapse in oil prices and very weak commodity prices first undermined and then reversed the upward trend in Eurozone consumer prices that had seen it move from deflation of 0.6% in January to inflation of 0.3% in May. |
| The ECB has already said it could boost its bond-buying stimulus programme if needed. And with prices falling in many eurozone countries, it could be prompted to act soon: | The ECB has already said it could boost its bond-buying stimulus programme if needed. And with prices falling in many eurozone countries, it could be prompted to act soon: |
| Nearly 2/3 of the 28 EU members had negative inflation readings in September. That's 11 of the 19 euro-area members. pic.twitter.com/9USfaBboVx | Nearly 2/3 of the 28 EU members had negative inflation readings in September. That's 11 of the 19 euro-area members. pic.twitter.com/9USfaBboVx |
| 10.08am BST | 10.08am BST |
| 10:08 | 10:08 |
| Britain’s John Lewis has reported underwhelming sales for the last week - with takings at its department store flat year-on-year. | Britain’s John Lewis has reported underwhelming sales for the last week - with takings at its department store flat year-on-year. |
| But within the figures, there’s a trend of customers revising the | But within the figures, there’s a trend of customers revising the |
| horrors | horrors |
| delights of the 1970s, with strong demand for knitted pouffes and platform shoes. Homeowners are even painting their rooms in brown and orange, risking terrifying flashbacks for those of a certain age. | delights of the 1970s, with strong demand for knitted pouffes and platform shoes. Homeowners are even painting their rooms in brown and orange, risking terrifying flashbacks for those of a certain age. |
| Related: Customer shopping habits pop back to the 70s, says John Lewis | Related: Customer shopping habits pop back to the 70s, says John Lewis |