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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/oct/16/markets-rally-us-rate-hike-volkswagen-sales-business-live
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| Version 20 | Version 21 |
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| US consumer confidence beats forecasts: worldmarkets move higher - as it happened | US consumer confidence beats forecasts: worldmarkets move higher - as it happened |
| (7 months later) | |
| 5.53pm BST | 5.53pm BST |
| 17:53 | 17:53 |
| Closing summary | Closing summary |
| Despite worries about the global economy and volatile stock markets, US consumers appear more confident than analysts had expected, but industrial production in the country fell for the second month in a row. | Despite worries about the global economy and volatile stock markets, US consumers appear more confident than analysts had expected, but industrial production in the country fell for the second month in a row. |
| Meanwhile hopes that the US Federal reserve would decide not to raise interest rates this year after all helped stock markets end the week on a positive note. | Meanwhile hopes that the US Federal reserve would decide not to raise interest rates this year after all helped stock markets end the week on a positive note. |
| In the UK, Bank of England policy maker Kristin Forbes said in a speech in Brighton that fears about emerging markets were overdone, and the next move in UK interest rates was up - and not far off at that. Not all of her colleagues at the Bank agree, however. | In the UK, Bank of England policy maker Kristin Forbes said in a speech in Brighton that fears about emerging markets were overdone, and the next move in UK interest rates was up - and not far off at that. Not all of her colleagues at the Bank agree, however. |
| Meanwhile the eurozone slumped back into negative inflation, putting more pressure on the European Central Bank - which meets next week - to extend its quantitative easing programme. | Meanwhile the eurozone slumped back into negative inflation, putting more pressure on the European Central Bank - which meets next week - to extend its quantitative easing programme. |
| On that note, it’s time to close up for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back again on Monday. | On that note, it’s time to close up for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back again on Monday. |
| 5.12pm BST | 5.12pm BST |
| 17:12 | 17:12 |
| European shares end week on a positive note | European shares end week on a positive note |
| Investors have suffered another volatile week, with shares hit initially by further poor Chinese data before recovering ground on hopes that the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates this year after all. Markets ended the week on a firmer note however, with the expectation of further support from central banks outweighing - for the moment - concerns about global growth. But with Chinese GDP figures due on Monday and the latest European Central Bank meeting due on Thursday, the uncertainty is not likely to end just yet. | Investors have suffered another volatile week, with shares hit initially by further poor Chinese data before recovering ground on hopes that the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates this year after all. Markets ended the week on a firmer note however, with the expectation of further support from central banks outweighing - for the moment - concerns about global growth. But with Chinese GDP figures due on Monday and the latest European Central Bank meeting due on Thursday, the uncertainty is not likely to end just yet. |
| But for the moment world markets, as measured by the MSCI world index, are at two month highs while the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 rose to its highest level in five weeks. The final scores elsewhere showed: | But for the moment world markets, as measured by the MSCI world index, are at two month highs while the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 rose to its highest level in five weeks. The final scores elsewhere showed: |
| On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently 32 points or 0.18% higher. | On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently 32 points or 0.18% higher. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 5.37pm BST | at 5.37pm BST |
| 3.44pm BST | 3.44pm BST |
| 15:44 | 15:44 |
| The day’s US economic news offers a mixed message, which is not helpful in gauging when the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, sayd James Knightley of ING Bank: | The day’s US economic news offers a mixed message, which is not helpful in gauging when the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, sayd James Knightley of ING Bank: |
| [The] data has been a bit of a mixed bag with industrial production falling 0.2% month on month, in line with expectations, although there was a three tenths of a percentage point upward revision to August’s figure (to -0.1% from -0.4% month on month). Still, in aggregate, output is only up 0.4% year on year. Mining remains the main drag given the plunge in oil prices has resulted in a steep drilling decline while dollar strength and weak external demand are contributors to manufacturing softness. | [The] data has been a bit of a mixed bag with industrial production falling 0.2% month on month, in line with expectations, although there was a three tenths of a percentage point upward revision to August’s figure (to -0.1% from -0.4% month on month). Still, in aggregate, output is only up 0.4% year on year. Mining remains the main drag given the plunge in oil prices has resulted in a steep drilling decline while dollar strength and weak external demand are contributors to manufacturing softness. |
| However, there was better news elsewhere with University of Michigan consumer confidence for October rising to 92.1 from 87.2, which was above the 89.0 consensus expectation. Both the current conditions and expectations components rose, which suggests that households are in decent financial shape and are willing to spend as we head towards holiday season. | However, there was better news elsewhere with University of Michigan consumer confidence for October rising to 92.1 from 87.2, which was above the 89.0 consensus expectation. Both the current conditions and expectations components rose, which suggests that households are in decent financial shape and are willing to spend as we head towards holiday season. |
| There was also some reasonably encouraging news from the Job openings data. While the actual number of new job openings fell, the trend is still upwards and the hiring rate and quit rate numbers suggest that job turnover is rising, which typically bodes well for higher wage growth. The key question is whether we see this materialise in the employment reports in the next couple of months. If not, the Fed doves will win the argument and there won’t be a Fed rate hike this year. | There was also some reasonably encouraging news from the Job openings data. While the actual number of new job openings fell, the trend is still upwards and the hiring rate and quit rate numbers suggest that job turnover is rising, which typically bodes well for higher wage growth. The key question is whether we see this materialise in the employment reports in the next couple of months. If not, the Fed doves will win the argument and there won’t be a Fed rate hike this year. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.58pm BST | at 3.58pm BST |
| 3.26pm BST | 3.26pm BST |
| 15:26 | 15:26 |
| There were 1.5 job seekers for every opening in Aug--up a hair from July but still below prerecrisis levels. #JOLTS pic.twitter.com/wBKqEE8nB8 | There were 1.5 job seekers for every opening in Aug--up a hair from July but still below prerecrisis levels. #JOLTS pic.twitter.com/wBKqEE8nB8 |
| Job openings are up 125% since end of recession, but actual hiring up less than 40%. #JOLTS pic.twitter.com/bTvTprGR8H | Job openings are up 125% since end of recession, but actual hiring up less than 40%. #JOLTS pic.twitter.com/bTvTprGR8H |
| 3.08pm BST | 3.08pm BST |
| 15:08 | 15:08 |
| More data from the US, this time showing the number of job openings falling from 5.66m in July to 5.37m in August. | More data from the US, this time showing the number of job openings falling from 5.66m in July to 5.37m in August. |
| Job openings fell in August. Hires,quits basically flat. Not great signs for the job market. (Not awful either) #JOLTS | Job openings fell in August. Hires,quits basically flat. Not great signs for the job market. (Not awful either) #JOLTS |
| 3.02pm BST | 3.02pm BST |
| 15:02 | 15:02 |
| US consumer confidence index beats expectations | US consumer confidence index beats expectations |
| American consumers are more confident than analysts had expected, according to the latest University of Michigan sentiment survey. | American consumers are more confident than analysts had expected, according to the latest University of Michigan sentiment survey. |
| The preliminary index for October came in at 92.1 compared to expectations of 89 and a final September reading of 87.2. Last month’s initial reading was lower at 85.7. | The preliminary index for October came in at 92.1 compared to expectations of 89 and a final September reading of 87.2. Last month’s initial reading was lower at 85.7. |
| This is the first increase in four months. | This is the first increase in four months. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.10pm BST | at 3.10pm BST |
| 2.56pm BST | 2.56pm BST |
| 14:56 | 14:56 |
| Jill Treanor | Jill Treanor |
| Here’s our report on rogue trader Kweku Adoboli, who was today banned from working in the City for a scam that cost UBS £1.5bn. | Here’s our report on rogue trader Kweku Adoboli, who was today banned from working in the City for a scam that cost UBS £1.5bn. |
| The Financial Conduct Authority barred Adoboli from working in the financial professions after finding he was “not a fit and proper person to perform any functions as his conduct demonstrates a serious lack of honesty, integrity and reputation”. | The Financial Conduct Authority barred Adoboli from working in the financial professions after finding he was “not a fit and proper person to perform any functions as his conduct demonstrates a serious lack of honesty, integrity and reputation”. |
| The Ghanaian citizen was released from Maidstone prison in Kent in June, halfway through his sentence, having been convicted on two counts of fraud over what was described at the time as the biggest scam in UK history. He was acquitted on four separate charges of false accounting. | The Ghanaian citizen was released from Maidstone prison in Kent in June, halfway through his sentence, having been convicted on two counts of fraud over what was described at the time as the biggest scam in UK history. He was acquitted on four separate charges of false accounting. |
| In a statement, he said: “This prohibition order marks the closing of a difficult chapter for me. I fully recognise the reasons for my prohibition and thank the FCA for their restraint. My hope now is to move forward in a positive way to help others learn from the mistakes I’ve made.” | In a statement, he said: “This prohibition order marks the closing of a difficult chapter for me. I fully recognise the reasons for my prohibition and thank the FCA for their restraint. My hope now is to move forward in a positive way to help others learn from the mistakes I’ve made.” |
| He is fighting deportation from the UK – where he was once head boy at a Quaker boarding school in Yorkshire – and hopes to give advice on preventing fraud in the future. | He is fighting deportation from the UK – where he was once head boy at a Quaker boarding school in Yorkshire – and hopes to give advice on preventing fraud in the future. |
| Full story here: | Full story here: |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.58pm BST | at 2.58pm BST |
| 2.48pm BST | 2.48pm BST |
| 14:48 | 14:48 |
| Ahead of the latest University of Michigan confidence survey, here’s how things have been looking over the past few years, courtesy Bloomberg: | Ahead of the latest University of Michigan confidence survey, here’s how things have been looking over the past few years, courtesy Bloomberg: |
| U.S. Consumer Confidence Surveys (UMich out in 20 minutes) pic.twitter.com/rrzdRMy3Su | U.S. Consumer Confidence Surveys (UMich out in 20 minutes) pic.twitter.com/rrzdRMy3Su |
| 2.44pm BST | 2.44pm BST |
| 14:44 | 14:44 |
| Wall Street is following in the wake of other global markets and moving higher in early trading. | Wall Street is following in the wake of other global markets and moving higher in early trading. |
| The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up around 34 points or 0.2%, continuing its strong run helped by better than expected results from industrial group’s General Electric and Honeywell. The S&P 500 is currently 0.16% higher. | The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up around 34 points or 0.2%, continuing its strong run helped by better than expected results from industrial group’s General Electric and Honeywell. The S&P 500 is currently 0.16% higher. |
| GE reported a 29% fall in earnings to $2.51bn but this was better than analysts’ expectations. It saw declines in its oil and gas business but these were offset by the performance of its jet engine and power turbine operations. | GE reported a 29% fall in earnings to $2.51bn but this was better than analysts’ expectations. It saw declines in its oil and gas business but these were offset by the performance of its jet engine and power turbine operations. |
| 2.21pm BST | 2.21pm BST |
| 14:21 | 14:21 |
| US industrial production slips in September | US industrial production slips in September |
| Every piece of US data is now watched carefully to see how it might influence the US Federal Reserve in its interest rate policy. | Every piece of US data is now watched carefully to see how it might influence the US Federal Reserve in its interest rate policy. |
| But there is not too much to glean from the latest figures. US industrial production dipped 0.2% in September, in line with expectations. August’s figure was revised to show a 0.1% decline compared to the 0.4% fall originally reported. | But there is not too much to glean from the latest figures. US industrial production dipped 0.2% in September, in line with expectations. August’s figure was revised to show a 0.1% decline compared to the 0.4% fall originally reported. |
| Weakness in the oil and gas sector was mainly responsible for the fall. | Weakness in the oil and gas sector was mainly responsible for the fall. |
| Later comes the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey. | Later comes the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey. |
| US #INDUSTRIAL #PRODUCTION in-line: -0.2%; not a picture of health, but last mth revised up=slightly #USD bullish. $ ticks higher | US #INDUSTRIAL #PRODUCTION in-line: -0.2%; not a picture of health, but last mth revised up=slightly #USD bullish. $ ticks higher |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.47pm BST | at 2.47pm BST |