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| Newspoll shows Labor neck-and-neck with the Turnbull government – politics live | Newspoll shows Labor neck-and-neck with the Turnbull government – politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 11.33pm GMT | |
| 23:33 | |
| Shorten says his job is not to be distracted by opinion polls. (In case you were wondering.) | |
| 11.31pm GMT | |
| 23:31 | |
| To questions now at ANU. First question to Shorten is about Senate reform, will Labor support it? | |
| Bill Shorten: | |
| We will consider the matter when we see the final legislation. | |
| 11.30pm GMT | |
| 23:30 | |
| The Labor leader Bill Shorten is at the ANU, with a couple of frontbench friends – actually several frontbench friends, including the shadow higher education minister Kim Carr, who is talking social justice: not slogans. | |
| 11.20pm GMT | |
| 23:20 | |
| With Senate reform now hurtling down the pipe, I’m just keeping half an eye on the red room to make sure the crossbenchers (the folks outside the government’s sharing circle) don’t suddenly construct a barricade and lock themselves in. Thus far, LDP senator David Leyonhjelm has been droning calmly about plucking a foreign investment goose. Or perhaps it was a tax goose. Poultry before a storm. | |
| 11.08pm GMT | |
| 23:08 | |
| People are still very excitable about that Newspoll, despite my entreaties to be cautious. Here’s another ‘be cautious’ view from Peter Brent, published this morning in the always excellent Inside Story. | |
| It can be summarised as ‘does those preference allocations look right to you?’ | |
| Here’s Peter: | |
| One unknown with all these polls, which won’t be revealed until the election, is the reliability of preference allocations based on flows at the last one, in 2013. That’s how the pollsters estimate their two-party-preferred numbers. The 2013 poll was characterised by three unusual things: the Palmer United Party, which seemed to come out of nowhere; a low vote for independents; and an overall independent preference flow that favoured Labor. The latter was primarily due to the results in Denison (from Andrew Wilkie) and Indi (from Cathy McGowan). And PUP has all but disappeared. | |
| Pollsters allocate preferences party by party, and presumably independent preferences are distributed as a block. We don’t know the level of independent support in these polls, as they are lumped with “others,” but it’s fair to assume it is larger than at the last election, and it is highly questionable that most of the people who are telling pollsters they’ll vote independent would really preference Labor ahead of the Coalition. | |
| Yes, it’s possible that the Labor Party could get 50% of the two-party-preferred vote from primary support of only 35 per cent (as Newspoll shows) – but if the Coalition receives 43 and the Greens only 12 (as in Newspoll) it’s very unlikely. | |
| 11.01pm GMT | |
| 23:01 | |
| Both chambers have just been gonged into life. Hello Reps. Hello Senate. | |
| 10.58pm GMT | 10.58pm GMT |
| 22:58 | 22:58 |
| PM&C officials have been asked by Labor’s senate leader Penny Wong whether advice has been given to the prime minister on the proposed marriage equality plebiscite. The official at the table says advice was given shortly after the prime minister assumed the party leadership. No advice has been given since that time. | PM&C officials have been asked by Labor’s senate leader Penny Wong whether advice has been given to the prime minister on the proposed marriage equality plebiscite. The official at the table says advice was given shortly after the prime minister assumed the party leadership. No advice has been given since that time. |
| 10.54pm GMT | 10.54pm GMT |
| 22:54 | 22:54 |
| Daniel Hurst | Daniel Hurst |
| There’s a spillover estimates hearing this morning in the finance committee. David Gruen from the department of prime minister and cabinet on the federation white paper process: | There’s a spillover estimates hearing this morning in the finance committee. David Gruen from the department of prime minister and cabinet on the federation white paper process: |
| We are working on the reforms. There is no question that involves working up documents. As to what comes of the documents that’s up to government. | We are working on the reforms. There is no question that involves working up documents. As to what comes of the documents that’s up to government. |
| Remember that particular white paper/green paper? This was the whole business of reforming the federation to make it work better. | Remember that particular white paper/green paper? This was the whole business of reforming the federation to make it work better. |
| Cost of this process to date? $5m plus. | Cost of this process to date? $5m plus. |
| 10.40pm GMT | 10.40pm GMT |
| 22:40 | 22:40 |
| Shalailah Medhora | Shalailah Medhora |
| Meanwhile, in the House of Representatives, Labor’s Andrew Giles will later this morning move a motion calling on the government apologise to Save the Children workers, following an independent report saying the workers should be compensated for being removed from Nauru in 2014. | Meanwhile, in the House of Representatives, Labor’s Andrew Giles will later this morning move a motion calling on the government apologise to Save the Children workers, following an independent report saying the workers should be compensated for being removed from Nauru in 2014. |
| The report, released in January, found that the staff members had been taken off the island in 2014 due to political pressure from Canberra. Giles’ motion calls for the government to apologise and acknowledge that there were no basis for claims that the workers had fabricated stories of abuse and mistreatment of asylum seeker children. | The report, released in January, found that the staff members had been taken off the island in 2014 due to political pressure from Canberra. Giles’ motion calls for the government to apologise and acknowledge that there were no basis for claims that the workers had fabricated stories of abuse and mistreatment of asylum seeker children. |
| The immigration minister, Peter Dutton, has brushed aside calls for an apology, saying the incident happened before he took on the portfolio. | The immigration minister, Peter Dutton, has brushed aside calls for an apology, saying the incident happened before he took on the portfolio. |
| 10.36pm GMT | 10.36pm GMT |
| 22:36 | 22:36 |
| I’m stoked I’ve actually managed to plunge below the line this morning. Down in the thread Matt Harris is sounding sanguine about a two year election cycle (pegged off Michelle Grattan’s piece in The Conversation, which I linked to earlier.) Two years? Good grief, I need the smelling salts. | I’m stoked I’ve actually managed to plunge below the line this morning. Down in the thread Matt Harris is sounding sanguine about a two year election cycle (pegged off Michelle Grattan’s piece in The Conversation, which I linked to earlier.) Two years? Good grief, I need the smelling salts. |
| 10.24pm GMT | 10.24pm GMT |
| 22:24 | 22:24 |
| Meanwhile, in the entirely plausible parallel universe that is our #BrickParliament, Captain Cronulla, also known as the treasurer, Scott Morrison, has been sighted hunting for mythical creatures. | Meanwhile, in the entirely plausible parallel universe that is our #BrickParliament, Captain Cronulla, also known as the treasurer, Scott Morrison, has been sighted hunting for mythical creatures. |
| Ah, here is one .. the manager of government business, Christopher Pyne, who is #BrickParliament’s Unicorn in Chief. | Ah, here is one .. the manager of government business, Christopher Pyne, who is #BrickParliament’s Unicorn in Chief. |
| Morrison is still yet to sight the fabled pixie horse. | Morrison is still yet to sight the fabled pixie horse. |
| Updated | |
| at 11.22pm GMT | |
| 10.14pm GMT | 10.14pm GMT |
| 22:14 | 22:14 |
| My colleague Lenore Taylor has been writing about Senate reform intensively over the past few weeks. She broke the story that the government had come to terms with the Greens and with Nick Xenophon on the specific method of reforming the Senate voting system. Labor is divided on this issue. In Camp Labor, there are concerns the model the government proposes could entrench Coalition control of the Senate. | My colleague Lenore Taylor has been writing about Senate reform intensively over the past few weeks. She broke the story that the government had come to terms with the Greens and with Nick Xenophon on the specific method of reforming the Senate voting system. Labor is divided on this issue. In Camp Labor, there are concerns the model the government proposes could entrench Coalition control of the Senate. |
| I’ll let Lenore explain the nuts and bolts, and give you the quick version of what they mean. She wrote a column about this issue which was published Friday night, which you can find here. | I’ll let Lenore explain the nuts and bolts, and give you the quick version of what they mean. She wrote a column about this issue which was published Friday night, which you can find here. |
| In the Reader’s Digest version, the system abolishes the “group voting tickets” which allowed parties to do backroom preference deals and enabled the sophisticated “preference harvesting” that saw micro-party senators such as Ricky Muir elected with just 0.5% of the first preference vote, on the back of preferences from voters who probably had never heard of him. | In the Reader’s Digest version, the system abolishes the “group voting tickets” which allowed parties to do backroom preference deals and enabled the sophisticated “preference harvesting” that saw micro-party senators such as Ricky Muir elected with just 0.5% of the first preference vote, on the back of preferences from voters who probably had never heard of him. |
| Voters will be asked to vote for six parties above the line, after which no more preferences are allocated. | Voters will be asked to vote for six parties above the line, after which no more preferences are allocated. |
| Most experts agree the scheme will advantage the parties that are preparing to vote for it. | Most experts agree the scheme will advantage the parties that are preparing to vote for it. |
| The extent of the advantage depends on the assumptions you make about how voters and political parties will respond to the change, and how far into the future you are looking. In other words, no one can be certain. | The extent of the advantage depends on the assumptions you make about how voters and political parties will respond to the change, and how far into the future you are looking. In other words, no one can be certain. |
| 10.04pm GMT | 10.04pm GMT |
| 22:04 | 22:04 |
| Back to Senate reform now, and the spectre of double dissolutions. | Back to Senate reform now, and the spectre of double dissolutions. |
| Things are now moving slightly more quickly than I anticipated. | Things are now moving slightly more quickly than I anticipated. |
| Coalition joint partyroom at 0930 this morning (normally Tuesday) - to consider electoral reform | Coalition joint partyroom at 0930 this morning (normally Tuesday) - to consider electoral reform |
| Setting aside Senate reform for just a moment, Michelle Grattan from The Conversation has a very good piece this morning drilling into the complexities associated with double dissolutions. | Setting aside Senate reform for just a moment, Michelle Grattan from The Conversation has a very good piece this morning drilling into the complexities associated with double dissolutions. |
| Going down this route would take, as she notes, a certain chutzpah. Facts follow. Have a read. | Going down this route would take, as she notes, a certain chutzpah. Facts follow. Have a read. |
| Michelle Grattan: | Michelle Grattan: |
| Given the government is committed to bringing down a budget on May 10, the double dissolution would have to be called on May 11, for July 2, 9 or 16 (the last possible date). The July date is needed to avoid cutting the next parliamentary term very short. | Given the government is committed to bringing down a budget on May 10, the double dissolution would have to be called on May 11, for July 2, 9 or 16 (the last possible date). The July date is needed to avoid cutting the next parliamentary term very short. |
| This means Turnbull would be taking a big gamble on his and Scott Morrison’s budget. This will contain income tax cuts, but with the GST off the table these can no longer be mega. Some other taxes will have to be adjusted to pay for them. | This means Turnbull would be taking a big gamble on his and Scott Morrison’s budget. This will contain income tax cuts, but with the GST off the table these can no longer be mega. Some other taxes will have to be adjusted to pay for them. |
| Presumably the government would avoid the nasties being a surprise via early leaks or announcements. | Presumably the government would avoid the nasties being a surprise via early leaks or announcements. |
| Still, launching an election before the reaction to the budget plays out – and the opposition leader has even had a chance to give his parliamentary reply – would take a certain chutzpah. | Still, launching an election before the reaction to the budget plays out – and the opposition leader has even had a chance to give his parliamentary reply – would take a certain chutzpah. |
| And there are some practical issues. Once the end of the financial year ticks over the government needs a fresh appropriation of money. It’s not that all the cash instantly runs out but it would be impossible to get by because it would be weeks before the new parliament convened. | And there are some practical issues. Once the end of the financial year ticks over the government needs a fresh appropriation of money. It’s not that all the cash instantly runs out but it would be impossible to get by because it would be weeks before the new parliament convened. |
| Passing some appropriation would need Senate co-operation. ABC election analyst Antony Green says: “If they need to pass supply and Labor says ‘not on your nelly, Bill Shorten hasn’t given his speech’, it’s all over”. | Passing some appropriation would need Senate co-operation. ABC election analyst Antony Green says: “If they need to pass supply and Labor says ‘not on your nelly, Bill Shorten hasn’t given his speech’, it’s all over”. |
| If Turnbull wanted to call an election on May 11, he might have to seek supply funds earlier, during the current parliamentary session which ends in mid-March. | If Turnbull wanted to call an election on May 11, he might have to seek supply funds earlier, during the current parliamentary session which ends in mid-March. |
| 9.53pm GMT | 9.53pm GMT |
| 21:53 | 21:53 |
| All the big iss-shoes. | All the big iss-shoes. |
| Shalialah Medhora and Mike Bowers® | Shalialah Medhora and Mike Bowers® |
| Updated | |
| at 11.23pm GMT | |
| 9.49pm GMT | 9.49pm GMT |
| 21:49 | 21:49 |
| What double dissolution? | What double dissolution? |
| Shalailah Medhora | Shalailah Medhora |
| The employment minister, Michaelia Cash, has also been hitting the airwaves early making the case for industrial relations reform. | The employment minister, Michaelia Cash, has also been hitting the airwaves early making the case for industrial relations reform. |
| She says current laws “are not acting as a deterrent” for bad behaviour in the building industry, and has urged the Senate crossbench to pass legislation that re-establishes the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC). | She says current laws “are not acting as a deterrent” for bad behaviour in the building industry, and has urged the Senate crossbench to pass legislation that re-establishes the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC). |
| “My goal is to get the ABCC legislation through,” Cash told Radio National. She denied that the government would prefer it if the Senate did not pass the bill, making it a double dissolution trigger. “As the prime minister said, this is a government that will be going full term.” | “My goal is to get the ABCC legislation through,” Cash told Radio National. She denied that the government would prefer it if the Senate did not pass the bill, making it a double dissolution trigger. “As the prime minister said, this is a government that will be going full term.” |
| 9.47pm GMT | 9.47pm GMT |
| 21:47 | 21:47 |
| Two other issues to bookmark quickly. | Two other issues to bookmark quickly. |
| Senate reform is well and truly on Monday’s political agenda. Cabinet is apparently looking at some options on this front today. I’ll come back to this chunky topic in a minute. | Senate reform is well and truly on Monday’s political agenda. Cabinet is apparently looking at some options on this front today. I’ll come back to this chunky topic in a minute. |
| Issue number two to bookmark is defence: there are some reports about suggesting the defence white paper isn’t too far away. | Issue number two to bookmark is defence: there are some reports about suggesting the defence white paper isn’t too far away. |
| 9.40pm GMT | 9.40pm GMT |
| 21:40 | 21:40 |
| Let’s get across the other major developments in the news cycle. | Let’s get across the other major developments in the news cycle. |
| Over this past weekend Brisbane folks rallied to the cause of baby Asha after there were signs the child may be about to be removed from hospital and returned to immigration detention on Nauru. | Over this past weekend Brisbane folks rallied to the cause of baby Asha after there were signs the child may be about to be removed from hospital and returned to immigration detention on Nauru. |
| While folks were rallying for Asha, the president of the Australian Medical Association, Brian Owler, was making a significant public intervention against Australia’s policies on immigration detention. I’d encourage you to read that speech in full when time permits. | While folks were rallying for Asha, the president of the Australian Medical Association, Brian Owler, was making a significant public intervention against Australia’s policies on immigration detention. I’d encourage you to read that speech in full when time permits. |
| Until that happy time, here’s a short sample of Owler: | Until that happy time, here’s a short sample of Owler: |
| Australia, to me, represents democracy, freedom, openness, and accountability. A fair go and honesty are sources of national pride. The reality is that children, and adults, are being subjected to physical and emotional harm. People are being moved in the middle of the night without notice; under a cloak of secrecy and intimidation. Denying people access to the legal representatives. Threatening to forcibly remove a baby from hospital against medical advice. Our colleagues are being intimidated. It is being done by the Australian government, and it is being done in our name. | Australia, to me, represents democracy, freedom, openness, and accountability. A fair go and honesty are sources of national pride. The reality is that children, and adults, are being subjected to physical and emotional harm. People are being moved in the middle of the night without notice; under a cloak of secrecy and intimidation. Denying people access to the legal representatives. Threatening to forcibly remove a baby from hospital against medical advice. Our colleagues are being intimidated. It is being done by the Australian government, and it is being done in our name. |
| With the hubbub about Australia’s extreme acts of state sanctioned cruelty reaching eleven on the Spinal Tap amplifier scale, the immigration minister Peter Dutton confirmed over the weekend that the child would go to community detention in Brisbane, not to Nauru. | With the hubbub about Australia’s extreme acts of state sanctioned cruelty reaching eleven on the Spinal Tap amplifier scale, the immigration minister Peter Dutton confirmed over the weekend that the child would go to community detention in Brisbane, not to Nauru. |
| At least not yet. | At least not yet. |
| Queensland Health has confirmed Asha is now out of hospital. | Queensland Health has confirmed Asha is now out of hospital. |
| We can confirm that baby Asha has been discharged from #LadyCilento hospital. Maybe if she visits again it will be as a doctor or nurse. | We can confirm that baby Asha has been discharged from #LadyCilento hospital. Maybe if she visits again it will be as a doctor or nurse. |
| Dutton has done a couple of radio interviews this morning. This formulation gives you something of the difficulty associated with the government’s contorted formulations on this subject. | Dutton has done a couple of radio interviews this morning. This formulation gives you something of the difficulty associated with the government’s contorted formulations on this subject. |
| Peter Dutton, on Radio National: | Peter Dutton, on Radio National: |
| She has gone into community detention, as you point out. That has been the case for 83 other people including women and children – families – and when I have been on the show before, Fran, I said I wanted to be the minister to get children out of detention. | She has gone into community detention, as you point out. That has been the case for 83 other people including women and children – families – and when I have been on the show before, Fran, I said I wanted to be the minister to get children out of detention. |
| I want to make sure that we can stop the boats and for 83 people already who have come from Nauru to Australia – they are in community detention already. | I want to make sure that we can stop the boats and for 83 people already who have come from Nauru to Australia – they are in community detention already. |
| This family has been treated no differently to the families that we have treated before them. | This family has been treated no differently to the families that we have treated before them. |
| So let’s translate that PDuddy segment. I’m very tough and I certainly haven’t done anything special for this child, but I’m also a softie because we allow people to be detained in the community and I want the kiddies out but I’m not at all soft because I’m hard because ... #StopTheBoats. | So let’s translate that PDuddy segment. I’m very tough and I certainly haven’t done anything special for this child, but I’m also a softie because we allow people to be detained in the community and I want the kiddies out but I’m not at all soft because I’m hard because ... #StopTheBoats. |
| Yes, it makes no sense. It’s not just you. | Yes, it makes no sense. It’s not just you. |
| If you want my thoughts on this subject: I don’t think that baby was going to be sent back to Nauru despite the rumours that sparked the protests outside the Lady Cilento Hospital on Saturday. I think the politics of sending that baby back would be untenable for the government, notwithstanding the fact that most Australians want the boats stopped, apparently at any price. I don’t see the weekend developments as a great and specific victory for people power – but I also absolutely agree with Brian Owler, this policy is a disgrace and the only way it will change is if enough people raise their voices in opposition. | If you want my thoughts on this subject: I don’t think that baby was going to be sent back to Nauru despite the rumours that sparked the protests outside the Lady Cilento Hospital on Saturday. I think the politics of sending that baby back would be untenable for the government, notwithstanding the fact that most Australians want the boats stopped, apparently at any price. I don’t see the weekend developments as a great and specific victory for people power – but I also absolutely agree with Brian Owler, this policy is a disgrace and the only way it will change is if enough people raise their voices in opposition. |
| I’ve been saying this policy completely stinks for years. No one listens. But the folks in this building do listen to you people. | I’ve been saying this policy completely stinks for years. No one listens. But the folks in this building do listen to you people. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.49pm GMT | at 9.49pm GMT |
| 9.04pm GMT | 9.04pm GMT |
| 21:04 | 21:04 |
| Good morning good people | Good morning good people |
| Hello everyone and hold onto your unicorns. Welcome to another parliamentary session where way too much of everything will be nowhere near enough. I do hope you’ve had a moment this morning to consume your morning muesli, extra fruit. | Hello everyone and hold onto your unicorns. Welcome to another parliamentary session where way too much of everything will be nowhere near enough. I do hope you’ve had a moment this morning to consume your morning muesli, extra fruit. |
| Hyper connected political tragics will know the results of the latest Newspoll have been thundering through the digisphere since late last night. Consequently, a number of broadcast types have informed us in sonorous tones at thirty minute intervals from the sparrow’s wind explusion that the Turnbull government’s honeymoon may be over. | Hyper connected political tragics will know the results of the latest Newspoll have been thundering through the digisphere since late last night. Consequently, a number of broadcast types have informed us in sonorous tones at thirty minute intervals from the sparrow’s wind explusion that the Turnbull government’s honeymoon may be over. |
| Over. Over. Over. | Over. Over. Over. |
| This morning’s poll published in The Australian shows the major parties in a dead heat in two party preferred terms, because of changes (within the margin of error) in each party’s primary vote since the last survey. The Coalition’s primary vote is down three points since the last poll, and Labor’s up one point. | This morning’s poll published in The Australian shows the major parties in a dead heat in two party preferred terms, because of changes (within the margin of error) in each party’s primary vote since the last survey. The Coalition’s primary vote is down three points since the last poll, and Labor’s up one point. |
| As Phillip Hudson notes, the Newspoll sample is also pursing its lips slightly at the prime minister. “Satisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s performance as prime minster fell five points, to 48 per cent, and is down 12 points since peaking in mid-November. Dissatisfaction with Mr Turnbull jumped seven points to 38 per cent, the highest level since he became prime minister.” | As Phillip Hudson notes, the Newspoll sample is also pursing its lips slightly at the prime minister. “Satisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s performance as prime minster fell five points, to 48 per cent, and is down 12 points since peaking in mid-November. Dissatisfaction with Mr Turnbull jumped seven points to 38 per cent, the highest level since he became prime minister.” |
| There’s also reasonable news for Labor in this poll about its proposed changes to negative gearing. 47% of the Newspoll sample were positive about Labor’s negative-gearing plan (which would restrict the concessions to future investments in new housing stock) – with 31% opposed and 22% undecided. That affirmation is higher than I would have predicted. | There’s also reasonable news for Labor in this poll about its proposed changes to negative gearing. 47% of the Newspoll sample were positive about Labor’s negative-gearing plan (which would restrict the concessions to future investments in new housing stock) – with 31% opposed and 22% undecided. That affirmation is higher than I would have predicted. |
| What I’ll say next is probably obvious. | What I’ll say next is probably obvious. |
| This is just one poll, and we really shouldn’t make sweeping analytical declarations on the back of it. Some of the recent evidence from polls suggests a tightening between the combatants, but you would expect that given the government is flat out telling us to brace for an election .. well .. any minute now. You’d also expect the government’s recent, less than convincing performance, to raise eyebrows among the voters of Australia: the whole controversy concerning Stuart Robert (really bad), the clear ‘we’ve got absolutely no idea what we are doing here’ on tax reform (somewhat perplexing), and Labor’s decision to fill the mildly chaotic void with actual policy (enough to make a seasoned political reporter dare to hope.) | This is just one poll, and we really shouldn’t make sweeping analytical declarations on the back of it. Some of the recent evidence from polls suggests a tightening between the combatants, but you would expect that given the government is flat out telling us to brace for an election .. well .. any minute now. You’d also expect the government’s recent, less than convincing performance, to raise eyebrows among the voters of Australia: the whole controversy concerning Stuart Robert (really bad), the clear ‘we’ve got absolutely no idea what we are doing here’ on tax reform (somewhat perplexing), and Labor’s decision to fill the mildly chaotic void with actual policy (enough to make a seasoned political reporter dare to hope.) |
| The bottom line of this survey? Interesting, but a distance short of definitive. | The bottom line of this survey? Interesting, but a distance short of definitive. |
| Loads more on the go already, so let’s get into it. The Politics Live comments thread is wide open for your business, and Mikearoo and I are up and at ‘em on the Twits. He’s @mpbowers and I’m @murpharoo | Loads more on the go already, so let’s get into it. The Politics Live comments thread is wide open for your business, and Mikearoo and I are up and at ‘em on the Twits. He’s @mpbowers and I’m @murpharoo |
| Fill up your water bottles, and jog lightly on the spot, here comes Monday. | Fill up your water bottles, and jog lightly on the spot, here comes Monday. |