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Newspoll shows Labor neck-and-neck with the Turnbull government – politics live Senate voting legislation will go to parliament today, Turnbull says – politics live
(35 minutes later)
12.07am GMT
00:07
It's the voter, stupid
Malcolm Turnbull, in case we missed it.
I will just make this observation: this is critically important – these changes will advantage only the voter. The only person that will benefit from these changes is the voter.
Because the voter will determine where their preferences go. So it’s up to the voter.
12.06am GMT
00:06
Entirely coincidentally, a rendition of Somewhere, over the Rainbow, down the front.
Sit-in ends with a rendition of "Somewhere over the rainbow". @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/rv79iTKife
12.04am GMT
00:04
Back to the prime minister, who thinks the crossbenchers need to vote on this issue on the merits, not out of self interest.
Malcolm Turnbull:
We would hope that Senate crossbenchers will vote on legislation on its merits and without regard to whatever they may perceive to be their personal electoral agenda.
They are, after all, elected to serve the people of the state or territory from which they’re chosen, and they should act accordingly.
(They would of course counter that lowering the number of micro parties in the Senate is entirely in the government’s interest. Everyone is pursuing their interest, here.)
12.02am GMT
00:02
While the prime minister is talking, a protest is underway at the other end of the parliament about children in detention.
"All children matter", protesters say, referring to children in detention. "Enough is enough." @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/fYNExnDsbn
12.00am GMT
00:00
A dig at Labor, which as I’ve mentioned, is divided on this question. Gary Gray (shadow special minister of state) is all for it, the Labor Senate leadership is dead against it.
Malcolm Turnbull:
There’s been no more forceful advocate of this change than Gary Gray himself. Labor’s spokesman in this area.
So this is an important change, it’s an important reform, it’s an important electoral reform. It’s be a important economic reform because it goes to the governance of Australia, our strong economy.
Our destiny depends on the strength of our democracy. This strengthens it because it gives the power, the choice, back into the hands of voters. Clearly and accountably.
(I’m glad the government recognises this as a principle. But I can think of several things which also need urgent attention, which won’t get a run today.)
11.57pm GMT
23:57
"The system has been taken advantage of .. "
The current system has been gamed, Turnbull says.
The system has been taken advantage of. There is no doubt about that. The last Senate election was widely criticised. Australians were astonished to see people elected to the Senate whose primary votes were a fraction – in the case of one senator from Victoria – about half of 1% of the vote.
(Here’s looking at you, Ricky).
11.56pm GMT
23:56
Malcolm Turnbull addresses journalists on Senate reform
The prime minister has arrived in his courtyard downstairs with the finance minister and special minister of state, Mathias Cormann.
Malcolm Turnbull says legislation giving effect to Senate reform will go into the parliament today.
It’s all about empowering the voters, the prime minister says.
What these changes will do, what they seek to do, is to ensure that Australians, Australian voters, determine where their Senate votes go.
11.48pm GMT
23:48
We have a prime ministerial press conference coming up in three minutes on Senate reform.
Hang onto your hats – and watch for that spontaneous barricade in the red chamber.
11.45pm GMT
23:45
Questions on multinational tax, and on the Newspoll again. (No distractions, people, please.)
Q: Peter Dutton has today said that baby Asha will be sent to Nauru at some point or other, eventually. Do you think that’s appropriate?
Bill Shorten:
What guides Labor are the following principles: when it comes to this little child, we want to make sure that the medical staff and the people who’ve been treating this child, their view should be paramount. The safety of the child has to be paramount.
Shorten goes on to say Labor supports regional processing but the government has to deal with the unacceptable indefinite detention which is occurring to some of the people on Nauru and Manus.
They must take up Labor’s policies of proper oversight. I respect that Papua New Guinea and Nauru are sovereign nations but these people are indirectly in Australia’s care with so we need to make sure they get the highest standard of care. I’m very supportive on a bipartisan basis of this government, if it’s having negotiations with New Zealand or Canada or Philippines or Indonesia, or importantly, Malaysia, if the government can do more to help the regional processing, we will support them 100%. I just wish that the Liberals when they were in opposition had supported Labor’s Malaysia solution, because I’ve got no doubt if they had done that then, there’d be more people alive today.
So we can translate that one too, just as we did Dutton’s formulation earlier on today.
So Shorten is saying put these people in offshore detention, but do it nicely. And hurry on with the resettlement. Slightly more elegant than Dutton, but similarly implausible, given well, lived experience.
Updated
at 11.50pm GMT
11.37pm GMT
23:37
Some questions about Labor’s policy on negative gearing. Shorten has been trying to work up this counterpoint for the last few days – at least since the prime minister went the kerbside beat down on Labor’s negative gearing policy last Friday afternoon.
Bill Shorten:
We want to make sure that Australian home ownership is affordable. I know the Australian dream is for parents to be able to see their children buy their first home. Mr Turnbull thinks it’s for very wealthy investors to acquire taxpayer support to get their fifth, sixth and seventh houses.
Q: Is there modelling of your negative gearing policy. If so, can we see it?
Bill Shorten:
ANU has already released work or they announced work that they’d done over the weekend. Again, I will back up our approach about housing affordability, budget repair, than a government who don’t know what they’re doing.
11.33pm GMT11.33pm GMT
23:3323:33
Shorten says his job is not to be distracted by opinion polls. (In case you were wondering.)Shorten says his job is not to be distracted by opinion polls. (In case you were wondering.)
11.31pm GMT11.31pm GMT
23:3123:31
To questions now at ANU. First question to Shorten is about Senate reform, will Labor support it?To questions now at ANU. First question to Shorten is about Senate reform, will Labor support it?
Bill Shorten:Bill Shorten:
We will consider the matter when we see the final legislation.We will consider the matter when we see the final legislation.
11.30pm GMT11.30pm GMT
23:3023:30
The Labor leader Bill Shorten is at the ANU, with a couple of frontbench friends – actually several frontbench friends, including the shadow higher education minister Kim Carr, who is talking social justice: not slogans.The Labor leader Bill Shorten is at the ANU, with a couple of frontbench friends – actually several frontbench friends, including the shadow higher education minister Kim Carr, who is talking social justice: not slogans.
11.20pm GMT11.20pm GMT
23:2023:20
With Senate reform now hurtling down the pipe, I’m just keeping half an eye on the red room to make sure the crossbenchers (the folks outside the government’s sharing circle) don’t suddenly construct a barricade and lock themselves in. Thus far, LDP senator David Leyonhjelm has been droning calmly about plucking a foreign investment goose. Or perhaps it was a tax goose. Poultry before a storm.With Senate reform now hurtling down the pipe, I’m just keeping half an eye on the red room to make sure the crossbenchers (the folks outside the government’s sharing circle) don’t suddenly construct a barricade and lock themselves in. Thus far, LDP senator David Leyonhjelm has been droning calmly about plucking a foreign investment goose. Or perhaps it was a tax goose. Poultry before a storm.
11.08pm GMT11.08pm GMT
23:0823:08
People are still very excitable about that Newspoll, despite my entreaties to be cautious. Here’s another ‘be cautious’ view from Peter Brent, published this morning in the always excellent Inside Story.People are still very excitable about that Newspoll, despite my entreaties to be cautious. Here’s another ‘be cautious’ view from Peter Brent, published this morning in the always excellent Inside Story.
It can be summarised as ‘does those preference allocations look right to you?’ It can be summarised as ‘do those preference allocations look right to you?’
Here’s Peter:Here’s Peter:
One unknown with all these polls, which won’t be revealed until the election, is the reliability of preference allocations based on flows at the last one, in 2013. That’s how the pollsters estimate their two-party-preferred numbers. The 2013 poll was characterised by three unusual things: the Palmer United Party, which seemed to come out of nowhere; a low vote for independents; and an overall independent preference flow that favoured Labor. The latter was primarily due to the results in Denison (from Andrew Wilkie) and Indi (from Cathy McGowan). And PUP has all but disappeared.One unknown with all these polls, which won’t be revealed until the election, is the reliability of preference allocations based on flows at the last one, in 2013. That’s how the pollsters estimate their two-party-preferred numbers. The 2013 poll was characterised by three unusual things: the Palmer United Party, which seemed to come out of nowhere; a low vote for independents; and an overall independent preference flow that favoured Labor. The latter was primarily due to the results in Denison (from Andrew Wilkie) and Indi (from Cathy McGowan). And PUP has all but disappeared.
Pollsters allocate preferences party by party, and presumably independent preferences are distributed as a block. We don’t know the level of independent support in these polls, as they are lumped with “others,” but it’s fair to assume it is larger than at the last election, and it is highly questionable that most of the people who are telling pollsters they’ll vote independent would really preference Labor ahead of the Coalition.Pollsters allocate preferences party by party, and presumably independent preferences are distributed as a block. We don’t know the level of independent support in these polls, as they are lumped with “others,” but it’s fair to assume it is larger than at the last election, and it is highly questionable that most of the people who are telling pollsters they’ll vote independent would really preference Labor ahead of the Coalition.
Yes, it’s possible that the Labor Party could get 50% of the two-party-preferred vote from primary support of only 35 per cent (as Newspoll shows) – but if the Coalition receives 43 and the Greens only 12 (as in Newspoll) it’s very unlikely.Yes, it’s possible that the Labor Party could get 50% of the two-party-preferred vote from primary support of only 35 per cent (as Newspoll shows) – but if the Coalition receives 43 and the Greens only 12 (as in Newspoll) it’s very unlikely.
Updated
at 11.57pm GMT
11.01pm GMT11.01pm GMT
23:0123:01
Both chambers have just been gonged into life. Hello Reps. Hello Senate.Both chambers have just been gonged into life. Hello Reps. Hello Senate.
10.58pm GMT10.58pm GMT
22:5822:58
PM&C officials have been asked by Labor’s senate leader Penny Wong whether advice has been given to the prime minister on the proposed marriage equality plebiscite. The official at the table says advice was given shortly after the prime minister assumed the party leadership. No advice has been given since that time.PM&C officials have been asked by Labor’s senate leader Penny Wong whether advice has been given to the prime minister on the proposed marriage equality plebiscite. The official at the table says advice was given shortly after the prime minister assumed the party leadership. No advice has been given since that time.
10.54pm GMT10.54pm GMT
22:5422:54
Daniel HurstDaniel Hurst
There’s a spillover estimates hearing this morning in the finance committee. David Gruen from the department of prime minister and cabinet on the federation white paper process:There’s a spillover estimates hearing this morning in the finance committee. David Gruen from the department of prime minister and cabinet on the federation white paper process:
We are working on the reforms. There is no question that involves working up documents. As to what comes of the documents that’s up to government.We are working on the reforms. There is no question that involves working up documents. As to what comes of the documents that’s up to government.
Remember that particular white paper/green paper? This was the whole business of reforming the federation to make it work better.Remember that particular white paper/green paper? This was the whole business of reforming the federation to make it work better.
Cost of this process to date? $5m plus.Cost of this process to date? $5m plus.
10.40pm GMT
22:40
Shalailah Medhora
Meanwhile, in the House of Representatives, Labor’s Andrew Giles will later this morning move a motion calling on the government apologise to Save the Children workers, following an independent report saying the workers should be compensated for being removed from Nauru in 2014.
The report, released in January, found that the staff members had been taken off the island in 2014 due to political pressure from Canberra. Giles’ motion calls for the government to apologise and acknowledge that there were no basis for claims that the workers had fabricated stories of abuse and mistreatment of asylum seeker children.
The immigration minister, Peter Dutton, has brushed aside calls for an apology, saying the incident happened before he took on the portfolio.
10.36pm GMT
22:36
I’m stoked I’ve actually managed to plunge below the line this morning. Down in the thread Matt Harris is sounding sanguine about a two year election cycle (pegged off Michelle Grattan’s piece in The Conversation, which I linked to earlier.) Two years? Good grief, I need the smelling salts.
10.24pm GMT
22:24
Meanwhile, in the entirely plausible parallel universe that is our #BrickParliament, Captain Cronulla, also known as the treasurer, Scott Morrison, has been sighted hunting for mythical creatures.
Ah, here is one .. the manager of government business, Christopher Pyne, who is #BrickParliament’s Unicorn in Chief.
Morrison is still yet to sight the fabled pixie horse.
Updated
at 11.22pm GMT
10.14pm GMT
22:14
My colleague Lenore Taylor has been writing about Senate reform intensively over the past few weeks. She broke the story that the government had come to terms with the Greens and with Nick Xenophon on the specific method of reforming the Senate voting system. Labor is divided on this issue. In Camp Labor, there are concerns the model the government proposes could entrench Coalition control of the Senate.
I’ll let Lenore explain the nuts and bolts, and give you the quick version of what they mean. She wrote a column about this issue which was published Friday night, which you can find here.
In the Reader’s Digest version, the system abolishes the “group voting tickets” which allowed parties to do backroom preference deals and enabled the sophisticated “preference harvesting” that saw micro-party senators such as Ricky Muir elected with just 0.5% of the first preference vote, on the back of preferences from voters who probably had never heard of him.
Voters will be asked to vote for six parties above the line, after which no more preferences are allocated.
Most experts agree the scheme will advantage the parties that are preparing to vote for it.
The extent of the advantage depends on the assumptions you make about how voters and political parties will respond to the change, and how far into the future you are looking. In other words, no one can be certain.
10.04pm GMT
22:04
Back to Senate reform now, and the spectre of double dissolutions.
Things are now moving slightly more quickly than I anticipated.
Coalition joint partyroom at 0930 this morning (normally Tuesday) - to consider electoral reform
Setting aside Senate reform for just a moment, Michelle Grattan from The Conversation has a very good piece this morning drilling into the complexities associated with double dissolutions.
Going down this route would take, as she notes, a certain chutzpah. Facts follow. Have a read.
Michelle Grattan:
Given the government is committed to bringing down a budget on May 10, the double dissolution would have to be called on May 11, for July 2, 9 or 16 (the last possible date). The July date is needed to avoid cutting the next parliamentary term very short.
This means Turnbull would be taking a big gamble on his and Scott Morrison’s budget. This will contain income tax cuts, but with the GST off the table these can no longer be mega. Some other taxes will have to be adjusted to pay for them.
Presumably the government would avoid the nasties being a surprise via early leaks or announcements.
Still, launching an election before the reaction to the budget plays out – and the opposition leader has even had a chance to give his parliamentary reply – would take a certain chutzpah.
And there are some practical issues. Once the end of the financial year ticks over the government needs a fresh appropriation of money. It’s not that all the cash instantly runs out but it would be impossible to get by because it would be weeks before the new parliament convened.
Passing some appropriation would need Senate co-operation. ABC election analyst Antony Green says: “If they need to pass supply and Labor says ‘not on your nelly, Bill Shorten hasn’t given his speech’, it’s all over”.
If Turnbull wanted to call an election on May 11, he might have to seek supply funds earlier, during the current parliamentary session which ends in mid-March.
9.53pm GMT
21:53
All the big iss-shoes.
Shalialah Medhora and Mike Bowers®
Updated
at 11.23pm GMT
9.49pm GMT
21:49
What double dissolution?
Shalailah Medhora
The employment minister, Michaelia Cash, has also been hitting the airwaves early making the case for industrial relations reform.
She says current laws “are not acting as a deterrent” for bad behaviour in the building industry, and has urged the Senate crossbench to pass legislation that re-establishes the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC).
“My goal is to get the ABCC legislation through,” Cash told Radio National. She denied that the government would prefer it if the Senate did not pass the bill, making it a double dissolution trigger. “As the prime minister said, this is a government that will be going full term.”
9.47pm GMT
21:47
Two other issues to bookmark quickly.
Senate reform is well and truly on Monday’s political agenda. Cabinet is apparently looking at some options on this front today. I’ll come back to this chunky topic in a minute.
Issue number two to bookmark is defence: there are some reports about suggesting the defence white paper isn’t too far away.
9.40pm GMT
21:40
Let’s get across the other major developments in the news cycle.
Over this past weekend Brisbane folks rallied to the cause of baby Asha after there were signs the child may be about to be removed from hospital and returned to immigration detention on Nauru.
While folks were rallying for Asha, the president of the Australian Medical Association, Brian Owler, was making a significant public intervention against Australia’s policies on immigration detention. I’d encourage you to read that speech in full when time permits.
Until that happy time, here’s a short sample of Owler:
Australia, to me, represents democracy, freedom, openness, and accountability. A fair go and honesty are sources of national pride. The reality is that children, and adults, are being subjected to physical and emotional harm. People are being moved in the middle of the night without notice; under a cloak of secrecy and intimidation. Denying people access to the legal representatives. Threatening to forcibly remove a baby from hospital against medical advice. Our colleagues are being intimidated. It is being done by the Australian government, and it is being done in our name.
With the hubbub about Australia’s extreme acts of state sanctioned cruelty reaching eleven on the Spinal Tap amplifier scale, the immigration minister Peter Dutton confirmed over the weekend that the child would go to community detention in Brisbane, not to Nauru.
At least not yet.
Queensland Health has confirmed Asha is now out of hospital.
We can confirm that baby Asha has been discharged from #LadyCilento hospital. Maybe if she visits again it will be as a doctor or nurse.
Dutton has done a couple of radio interviews this morning. This formulation gives you something of the difficulty associated with the government’s contorted formulations on this subject.
Peter Dutton, on Radio National:
She has gone into community detention, as you point out. That has been the case for 83 other people including women and children – families – and when I have been on the show before, Fran, I said I wanted to be the minister to get children out of detention.
I want to make sure that we can stop the boats and for 83 people already who have come from Nauru to Australia – they are in community detention already.
This family has been treated no differently to the families that we have treated before them.
So let’s translate that PDuddy segment. I’m very tough and I certainly haven’t done anything special for this child, but I’m also a softie because we allow people to be detained in the community and I want the kiddies out but I’m not at all soft because I’m hard because ... #StopTheBoats.
Yes, it makes no sense. It’s not just you.
If you want my thoughts on this subject: I don’t think that baby was going to be sent back to Nauru despite the rumours that sparked the protests outside the Lady Cilento Hospital on Saturday. I think the politics of sending that baby back would be untenable for the government, notwithstanding the fact that most Australians want the boats stopped, apparently at any price. I don’t see the weekend developments as a great and specific victory for people power – but I also absolutely agree with Brian Owler, this policy is a disgrace and the only way it will change is if enough people raise their voices in opposition.
I’ve been saying this policy completely stinks for years. No one listens. But the folks in this building do listen to you people.
Updated
at 9.49pm GMT
9.04pm GMT
21:04
Good morning good people
Hello everyone and hold onto your unicorns. Welcome to another parliamentary session where way too much of everything will be nowhere near enough. I do hope you’ve had a moment this morning to consume your morning muesli, extra fruit.
Hyper connected political tragics will know the results of the latest Newspoll have been thundering through the digisphere since late last night. Consequently, a number of broadcast types have informed us in sonorous tones at thirty minute intervals from the sparrow’s wind explusion that the Turnbull government’s honeymoon may be over.
Over. Over. Over.
This morning’s poll published in The Australian shows the major parties in a dead heat in two party preferred terms, because of changes (within the margin of error) in each party’s primary vote since the last survey. The Coalition’s primary vote is down three points since the last poll, and Labor’s up one point.
As Phillip Hudson notes, the Newspoll sample is also pursing its lips slightly at the prime minister. “Satisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s performance as prime minster fell five points, to 48 per cent, and is down 12 points since peaking in mid-November. Dissatisfaction with Mr Turnbull jumped seven points to 38 per cent, the highest level since he becam­e prime minister.”
There’s also reasonable news for Labor in this poll about its proposed changes to negative gearing. 47% of the Newspoll sample were positive about Labor’s negative-gearing plan (which would restrict the concessions to future investments in new housing stock) – with 31% opposed and 22% undecided. That affirmation is higher than I would have predicted.
What I’ll say next is probably obvious.
This is just one poll, and we really shouldn’t make sweeping analytical declarations on the back of it. Some of the recent evidence from polls suggests a tightening between the combatants, but you would expect that given the government is flat out telling us to brace for an election .. well .. any minute now. You’d also expect the government’s recent, less than convincing performance, to raise eyebrows among the voters of Australia: the whole controversy concerning Stuart Robert (really bad), the clear ‘we’ve got absolutely no idea what we are doing here’ on tax reform (somewhat perplexing), and Labor’s decision to fill the mildly chaotic void with actual policy (enough to make a seasoned political reporter dare to hope.)
The bottom line of this survey? Interesting, but a distance short of definitive.
Loads more on the go already, so let’s get into it. The Politics Live comments thread is wide open for your business, and Mikearoo and I are up and at ‘em on the Twits. He’s @mpbowers and I’m @murpharoo
Fill up your water bottles, and jog lightly on the spot, here comes Monday.