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| Michigan primary live: Trump wins as Clinton and Sanders deadlocked | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 2.28am GMT | |
| 02:28 | |
| Sanders looks stronger with black voters in Michigan | |
| Interesting in Michigan – as districts with higher proportions of African American voters report results – Bernie Sanders appears to be performing better with the demographic versus Clinton than usual: | |
| Sanders doing significantly better with black voters in Mich than elsewhere...WhiteSanders 59%Clinton 39%BlackClinton 64%Sanders 32% | |
| If Clinton's only winning black voters by 30 points, there's no reason to assume she overtakes Sanders with a huge margin in Detroit. | |
| Here’s how Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight sees it: | |
| If Sanders winds up winning in Michigan, in fact, it will count as among the greatest polling errors in primary history. | |
| 2.24am GMT | |
| 02:24 | |
| Trump now refers to the steaks. It appears they are there to prove they still exist. “We have Trump steaks here,” he says. Then he says “we have Trump magazines here.” He explains he sold Trump airlines but made a good deal. | |
| “Trump University, we’re holding it. When I win the lawsuit... we’re putting on hold. If I become president, that means Ivanka, Don, Eric and my people will start it up...” | |
| He says you never settle lawsuits because then you get sued too much. | |
| 2.20am GMT | |
| 02:20 | |
| Trump is talking like a nominee. He talks about holding the Republican senate majority. Party insiders have predicted down-ticket disaster if he is the Republican nominee. | |
| Trump says turnout is way up and that he is expanding the party. | |
| He says “Ted’s gonna have a hard time” in the north and northeast, while “we’re gonna do great.” | |
| Who has cause to doubt him? | |
| Meanwhile, another chapter in the fall of Rubio is being written tonight: | |
| Just a few weeks ago, Rubio was getting between 17% and 20% of the vote in the MI GOP primary. Wow. | |
| 2.16am GMT | |
| 02:16 | |
| Mona Chalabi | |
| Michigan is a big win for Trump, writes Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi: | |
| And it’s not just because the state offered up 59 delegates, proportionately awarded – it’s also because of who the individuals were who voted there. Michigan’s voting population is pretty similar to the national numbers in terms of age, income and education. That could be good for Trump as candidates begin to think about shifting their rhetoric towards being the best chance for their party to win the general election. | |
| Michigan is also meaningful because it brings Trump closer to the 1,237 delegates needed to get the nomination - before tonight, the New York businessman had 384. | |
| However there’s also reason for Trump supporters to temper their enthusiasm at the Michigan results - Trump was pretty likely to have won there. | |
| Polling averages ahead of tonight’s results showed the candidate with 37% of support, ahead of Ohio governor John Kasich in second place on 25%. For Trump to really secure his long-term victory, he needs to make sure that his wins tonight translate into support in the states voting next Tuesday which will be more important in terms of delegates. That could be all about messaging - something which so far, the Trump campaign has proven adept at doing. | |
| 2.16am GMT | |
| 02:16 | |
| Trump wins Michigan | |
| The Associated Press calls Michigan for Trump. And now it appears to be a tightening race for second. Can Kasich stave off Cruz? | |
| Trump has won MI, but Kasich margin over Cruz for 2nd narrowing. Now down to 6.1%: https://t.co/wqH2Y98jn1 | |
| Updated | |
| at 2.21am GMT | |
| 2.14am GMT | |
| 02:14 | |
| Trump holds victory news conference | |
| Trump is talking now in Jupiter. He says so many horrible things were said about him in one week. But the public knew they were lies. | |
| He thanks the people of Michigan and Mississippi. | |
| Then he starts bragging about how the Trump golf club where he is was designed by Jack Nicklaus. | |
| Then Trump points out former Yankee Paul O’Neill in the crowd. | |
| Nicklaus, O’Neill-- who’s next? | |
| 2.14am GMT | |
| 02:14 | |
| Lucia Graves | |
| Say goodbye to the notion that Donald Trump is fading – early in the evening the Donald is already the projected winner in Mississippi. It’s a state that common sense dictates should belong to Cruz, whose worked hard to court religious conservatives and win over the south. But that strategy didn’t work for him on Super Tuesday, and now, apparently, it’s deja vu all over again. | |
| It’s a sour pill to swallow for the Texas senator who was buoyed by the results of Saturday’s elections when it was he and not Trump who took home the lion’s share of delegates (Cruz won easily in Maine and Kansas, finishing close behind Trump in Louisiana and Kentucky.) Yet a second-place finish in Mississippi would by no means be devastating for Cruz. Sure he wants to have a good night Tuesday, and this was a state where many thought he might shine, but Cruz isn’t so far behind Trump when it comes to delegate math and he’ll be fine no matter what happens tonight. | |
| Perhaps a Trump victory is worse news for a Republican establishment that made unprecedented efforts to blunt Trump’s momentum this week; and surely it’s cold comfort for a class of pundits that’s long predicted the billionaire mogul’s political demise. | |
| And then there’s this simple logic: if Cruz is going to overtake Trump, he has to start winning at some point and not just doing well. He just lost his best chance to do that tonight. | |
| 2.10am GMT | |
| 02:10 | |
| Could Trump cross 50% statewide in Mississippi? With 8.7% of returns in, Trump has 49.7% of the vote. Full returns here – with maps, and animated candidates riding scissors lifts! | |
| Key question in MS: could it be the first state to give any GOP candidate a majority? | |
| 2.08am GMT | |
| 02:08 | |
| We’re watching for Trump to appear any moment now at his news conference in Jupiter, Florida – and would invite you to watch along below. | |
| It looks like it’s shaping up to be a big, happy night for Trump after all. | |
| 2.06am GMT | |
| 02:06 | |
| In Michigan, according to exit polling and results in thus far, Donald Trump appears to have chalked up a big win among men – which then disappears among women, who desert him for Ted Cruz, Ben Jacobs points out: | |
| Holy gender gap in Michigan for Donald Trump pic.twitter.com/VRAJPNC3Lm | |
| 1.57am GMT | |
| 01:57 | |
| Here’s a robocall Arnold Schwarzenegger recorded for John Kasich for dissemination in Hawaii. | |
| Schwarzenegger calls Kasich an “action hero” and at the end gratifies fans of his own onscreen action work. | |
| “Mahalo. Get to the caucus!” | |
| 1.55am GMT | 1.55am GMT |
| 01:55 | 01:55 |
| Michigan polls set to close | Michigan polls set to close |
| We’ve had some early results out of Michigan – but all polling stations are preparing to close at 9pm ET, and we expect further results soon after. | We’ve had some early results out of Michigan – but all polling stations are preparing to close at 9pm ET, and we expect further results soon after. |
| The Democratic race appears to be more competitive than the 20-point spread in Hillary Clinton’s advantage that you read about in the polling averages. With the big caveat that key populous, urban and suburban counties expected to support Clinton have yet to fully report... the race is neck-and-neck. | The Democratic race appears to be more competitive than the 20-point spread in Hillary Clinton’s advantage that you read about in the polling averages. With the big caveat that key populous, urban and suburban counties expected to support Clinton have yet to fully report... the race is neck-and-neck. |
| As usual get all your results right here: | As usual get all your results right here: |
| Related: Live election results: track the votes in Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii | Related: Live election results: track the votes in Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii |