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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2016/mar/14/new-poll-suggests-coalition-is-holding-its-ground-while-turnbull-slides-politics-live
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| New poll suggests Coalition is holding its ground while Turnbull slides – politics live | New poll suggests Coalition is holding its ground while Turnbull slides – politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 9.49pm GMT | |
| 21:49 | |
| One thing worth noting in passing – even if Windsor doesn’t prevail in New England, he will complicate election planning for the National party. If Joyce, the party leader, faces an existential threat in his own electorate, this will complicate the party’s national campaigning effort. | |
| Putting this most simply: Joyce is the National’s strongest brand in the bush. It would be in the interests of the Nationals to have Joyce on the road, criss crossing the country, to try and be the rising tide that lifts all boats. How much agency will Joyce have now? | |
| I can’t believe that point would be lost on Windsor. | |
| 9.41pm GMT | |
| 21:41 | |
| There’s another poll around this morning which looks at the contest for the northern New South Wales seat of New England. Last week independent Tony Windsor announced a political comeback in the seat he vacated after the last federal election. He will run against the incumbent deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce. You would think Windsor would have a shot (I wouldn’t put it any higher than a shot) of taking that seat if he can lock up preference deals with Labor and the Greens. Windsor has been active locally against the Shenhua mine. | |
| This morning’s poll published by The Australian would seem to bear that theory out. Phillip Hudson reports: “Barnaby Joyce risks becoming the first deputy prime minister to lose his seat at an election, according to a Newspoll which reveals a two-candidate swing against the Nationals leader of 16 percentage points in his rural NSW seat of New England.” | |
| Given that Monday morning heart starter, Joyce has held an early morning press conference in Tamworth. | |
| Q: Will you now be more active against Shenhua? | |
| Barnaby Joyce: | |
| There is no mine that’s been approved at Shenhua. And with the actual exploratory licence, that happened when the former independent was the member. All these problems that apparently are arising now, he wasn’t able, when he had the balance of power, to stop them. Then he tells us that he’s going to stop it now. | |
| Q: What about the early swing? | |
| Barnaby Joyce: | |
| I always expected it’d be a hard fight. I’ve never shied away from a political battle. I remember when I was in the Senate and had basically a safe seat and a safe job, I resigned from that, basically went on the unemployment queue to comedown here because I believed in the people of New England. | |
| I believed in coming home, I believed in fighting for the people of if New England. I’ve put it all on the line before. You know it doesn’t really concern me that I put it all on the line again. | |
| 9.25pm GMT | |
| 21:25 | |
| I flagged in the opening post Tasmanian Liberal Eric Abetz is displeased this morning about the party of Menzies playing footsie with the extreme left. He’s speaking to Michael Brissenden on the AM program now. | |
| Brissenden opens with the new study on the costs of the marriage equality plebiscite, the one I noted in the opening post. Abetz says the conclusions are invalid because the calculations on opportunity cost did not take into account the distress caused to supporters of heterosexual marriage by having to contemplate the wild notion marriage equality. | |
| Abetz described the work as .. | |
| .. A study in inverted commas. | |
| Abetz is then asked what’s wrong with the Liberal party in Victoria doing a preference deal with the Greens in the coming federal campaign if it ties up Labor resources in marginal seats? | |
| The Tasmanian says the party of Menzies took on the extreme left head on and would never countenance doing preference deals on a transactional basis. | |
| Eric Abetz: | |
| I think it will cost us votes if we go down that track. I’m confident we won’t. | |
| He’s then asked about cooperating in parliament with the Greens. | |
| Deals like the deal we’ll see this week on Senate voting reform. This isn’t the same thing, Abetz contends. He says Labor has forced the government to talk to the Greens because it won’t cooperate on voting reform. | |
| This is not doing a deal with the Greens. | |
| The horror. The horror. A deal in inverted commas. | |
| 9.08pm GMT | 9.08pm GMT |
| 21:08 | 21:08 |
| Well hello there | Well hello there |
| Good morning good politics tragics and welcome to Monday of the final sitting week before the budget. Parliament is not actually sitting until tomorrow but my excitement was such that you’ve got a dose of Politics Live anyway. How long we’ll last today is a function of how much the political class keeps on warbling. Let’s keep the bottled water and canned goods handy and see how we go. | Good morning good politics tragics and welcome to Monday of the final sitting week before the budget. Parliament is not actually sitting until tomorrow but my excitement was such that you’ve got a dose of Politics Live anyway. How long we’ll last today is a function of how much the political class keeps on warbling. Let’s keep the bottled water and canned goods handy and see how we go. |
| Dominant themes in this morning’s news cycle are the new Ipsos poll which shows the government ahead on the two party preferred measure 53% to Labor’s 47%. I’ll get into the other features of this poll as we jog on this morning, but suffice to say at this point this survey is more favourable to the Coalition that recent Newspolls or the Essential poll. Why? Well probably because polls tend to bounce around within their margin of error, and in any case, the week to week evidence is less important than what the trend says. | Dominant themes in this morning’s news cycle are the new Ipsos poll which shows the government ahead on the two party preferred measure 53% to Labor’s 47%. I’ll get into the other features of this poll as we jog on this morning, but suffice to say at this point this survey is more favourable to the Coalition that recent Newspolls or the Essential poll. Why? Well probably because polls tend to bounce around within their margin of error, and in any case, the week to week evidence is less important than what the trend says. |
| Liberal Eric Abetz is unhappy that his party is contemplating a preference deal with the Greens, because, well, Greens. | Liberal Eric Abetz is unhappy that his party is contemplating a preference deal with the Greens, because, well, Greens. |
| Crossbencher Ricky Muir is planning some fun procedural times in the Senate this week. Muir is planning a motion to bring on a vote on the Australian Building and Construction Commission, which the government would very much like to use as a trigger for a double dissolution election, but can’t actually consider this week because the Greens want this week to be about Senate voting reform. As they say in our business, more to come. | Crossbencher Ricky Muir is planning some fun procedural times in the Senate this week. Muir is planning a motion to bring on a vote on the Australian Building and Construction Commission, which the government would very much like to use as a trigger for a double dissolution election, but can’t actually consider this week because the Greens want this week to be about Senate voting reform. As they say in our business, more to come. |
| And there’s some work around this morning suggesting the plebiscite on legalising same sex marriage may cost more than triple the federal government’s estimate of $160m. | And there’s some work around this morning suggesting the plebiscite on legalising same sex marriage may cost more than triple the federal government’s estimate of $160m. |
| There’s more of course, but that will do us from a standing start. Today’s Politics Live comments thread is open for your business, so pop your touch typing fingers on and have a happy keyboard dance. | There’s more of course, but that will do us from a standing start. Today’s Politics Live comments thread is open for your business, so pop your touch typing fingers on and have a happy keyboard dance. |
| I’m up and about on the twits and also on my new Facebook politics/media forum, which you can find here. Do stop by the Facebook forum. I hope it will be a useful place for conversation at a less frenetic pace than politics live, and I’m making it a treasure trove of my favourite pieces from both here and around the world. | I’m up and about on the twits and also on my new Facebook politics/media forum, which you can find here. Do stop by the Facebook forum. I hope it will be a useful place for conversation at a less frenetic pace than politics live, and I’m making it a treasure trove of my favourite pieces from both here and around the world. |
| On Twitter I’m @murpharoo and he’s @mpbowers | On Twitter I’m @murpharoo and he’s @mpbowers |
| Roll your shoulders and pour a hot beverage. Here comes Monday. | Roll your shoulders and pour a hot beverage. Here comes Monday. |