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| 'I’m making no claims prices will come down': Labor's mixed message on negative gearing – politics live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 6.08am GMT | |
| 06:08 | |
| From the thread, Vincentwaslean. | |
| Q: Leaving aside your hopes regarding PwC and its costings, given that a possible ‘yes’ plebiscite result isn’t binding and, because Australia will only have a plebiscite if the Coalition gains re-election and decides to hold one, legislation in relation to ME will still need to be introduced to Parliament and passed and then given a start date, how is that money - whether $160 million or $525 million - well spent, in your opinion? | |
| KM: If I was a politician I wouldn’t have gone down the plebiscite route, I would have simply done my job in a representative democracy, which is legislate. Unfortunately that hasn’t happened. Of course a plebiscite is ridiculously expensive. Why would anyone opt for that if there was a choice? But fact is that’s where we have landed. I also think it’s possible that a yes vote in the plebiscite (assuming it’s yes) will make legislating for marriage equality actually happen, as opposed to not happen, which is what we’ve seen for the last several years. I might be wrong, but that’s my view. | |
| 5.42am GMT | |
| 05:42 | |
| @murpharoo Why is there complete silence from the media on (the liberals) deficit? | |
| KM: The media silence on the budget deficit is pretty noisy where I sit, Mary Jane. | |
| 5.37am GMT | |
| 05:37 | |
| Back to readers now for a bit. | |
| Andrew Geddes, via Facebook. | |
| Q: Has there been a change in parliamentary pension entitlements or the way that they are paid that makes it advantageous to retire at this election rather than afterwards? | |
| KM: Nope, nope, nope. | |
| @murpharoo Do you think Australian politics will see a consensus position reached on tackling global warming? | |
| KM: My first response to this question is to laugh. Then I remember that is post traumatic stress, rather than a helpful answer to your question. Bizarrely, political consensus in Australia could be possible over the next few years. It depends on the outcome of the election. With my prediction hat on, I’d say this: if Turnbull wins the election, he’ll try to use the 2017 review of direct action to transform that policy into a baseline and credit scheme (which is a form of carbon trading). That act will provoke a fight in the Coalition partyroom, but if he prevails, my gut feeling is Labor would fall into line behind that scheme rather than continue to advocate for a brand new emissions trading scheme. I suspect Labor would do this on the basis that there’s got to be some certainty in energy policy. So consensus is actually possible on one, not insane, working scenario, but you can see how delicately balanced that scenario is. Watch this space. | |
| 5.24am GMT | 5.24am GMT |
| 05:24 | 05:24 |
| Negative gearing: Labor's mixed message | |
| Back to live mode for a bit. The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, is getting the rounds of the kitchen on Sky News this afternoon about the opposition’s tax policy. | Back to live mode for a bit. The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, is getting the rounds of the kitchen on Sky News this afternoon about the opposition’s tax policy. |
| Sky News political editor, David Speers, has a bunch of questions about the negative gearing proposal. Can you negatively gear a knock-down and rebuilt property? Bowen says yes, if it’s a new property. New properties continue under current arrangements. What about a big renovation? No, Bowen says, a renovation isn’t a new build. | Sky News political editor, David Speers, has a bunch of questions about the negative gearing proposal. Can you negatively gear a knock-down and rebuilt property? Bowen says yes, if it’s a new property. New properties continue under current arrangements. What about a big renovation? No, Bowen says, a renovation isn’t a new build. |
| Won’t this policy impose a bunch of new (onerous) responsibilities on the Australian Taxation Office? Not really, Bowen says. The ATO will be given a definition of a new property in the revised legislation, and making rulings is standard procedure for the ATO. | Won’t this policy impose a bunch of new (onerous) responsibilities on the Australian Taxation Office? Not really, Bowen says. The ATO will be given a definition of a new property in the revised legislation, and making rulings is standard procedure for the ATO. |
| Will house prices rise or fall? Bowen says his expectation is prices will continue to rise, but he’d like some of the heat to come out of the housing market. | Will house prices rise or fall? Bowen says his expectation is prices will continue to rise, but he’d like some of the heat to come out of the housing market. |
| Chris Bowen: | Chris Bowen: |
| I’m making no claims prices will come down. | I’m making no claims prices will come down. |
| (Bit odd this, given Labor’s policy is badged a housing affordability policy. Which would seem to imply downward pressure on house prices. Labor’s policy does have a clear internal contradiction at its heart, and frontbenchers do stumble on this point in interviews. Labor wants to create the impression this policy will making housing more affordable yet it doesn’t want to say prices will come down, for obvious reasons. Bit tricky, this.) | (Bit odd this, given Labor’s policy is badged a housing affordability policy. Which would seem to imply downward pressure on house prices. Labor’s policy does have a clear internal contradiction at its heart, and frontbenchers do stumble on this point in interviews. Labor wants to create the impression this policy will making housing more affordable yet it doesn’t want to say prices will come down, for obvious reasons. Bit tricky, this.) |
| Last question is on modelling: Why won’t Labor model the impacts of the policy? Bowen dances around that one too. He implies there’s lots of modelling out there, which of course there is, just not of Labor’s policy. | Last question is on modelling: Why won’t Labor model the impacts of the policy? Bowen dances around that one too. He implies there’s lots of modelling out there, which of course there is, just not of Labor’s policy. |
| Bowen says Scott Morrison has the entire Treasury at his disposal and yet he won’t model Labor’s policy. The inference here is the Treasury work wouldn’t support the key contentions in the government scare campaign. | Bowen says Scott Morrison has the entire Treasury at his disposal and yet he won’t model Labor’s policy. The inference here is the Treasury work wouldn’t support the key contentions in the government scare campaign. |
| I hope for his sake the Labor man is confident of his policy ground here, because that’s a fair challenge to throw down to a treasurer who has all the advantages of incumbency. | I hope for his sake the Labor man is confident of his policy ground here, because that’s a fair challenge to throw down to a treasurer who has all the advantages of incumbency. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 5.45am GMT | |
| 5.11am GMT | 5.11am GMT |
| 05:11 | 05:11 |
| Still coming in. Blessings. | Still coming in. Blessings. |
| @murpharoo How will the Senate voting reforms impact democracy? Does it make the future more secure for career politicians of major party? | @murpharoo How will the Senate voting reforms impact democracy? Does it make the future more secure for career politicians of major party? |
| KM: The main way Senate voting reform will impact democracy is clearing out the opportunity for micro-parties to gain representation on a tiny proportion of the vote. Basically the Senate will revert to three main parties: Coalition, Labor, Greens, with some others at the margins, like Nick Xenophon’s NXT. Xenophon entered the state parliament in South Australia on a tiny fraction of the vote and has translated that early opportunity into a durable political force. Under the new rules that will be adopted this week it is much harder for the Nick Xenophons of the future to do what he did. | KM: The main way Senate voting reform will impact democracy is clearing out the opportunity for micro-parties to gain representation on a tiny proportion of the vote. Basically the Senate will revert to three main parties: Coalition, Labor, Greens, with some others at the margins, like Nick Xenophon’s NXT. Xenophon entered the state parliament in South Australia on a tiny fraction of the vote and has translated that early opportunity into a durable political force. Under the new rules that will be adopted this week it is much harder for the Nick Xenophons of the future to do what he did. |
| @murpharoo Is this what an ALP spin doctor looks like? #qt pic.twitter.com/eREby9z6bb | @murpharoo Is this what an ALP spin doctor looks like? #qt pic.twitter.com/eREby9z6bb |
| KM: Cheeky. | KM: Cheeky. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 5.24am GMT | at 5.24am GMT |
| 5.00am GMT | 5.00am GMT |
| 05:00 | 05:00 |
| From Zach Abramovich, via Facebook. | From Zach Abramovich, via Facebook. |
| Q: Despite all the new debate over the plebiscite generated by the PWC report, is it correct to say that time has run out for the chance of anything but a plebiscite? | Q: Despite all the new debate over the plebiscite generated by the PWC report, is it correct to say that time has run out for the chance of anything but a plebiscite? |
| KM: I can’t see anything stopping the plebiscite as the mechanism to resolve this issue at this point – other than the election of a Labor government at the forthcoming election. Labor’s policy is no plebiscite and a parliamentary vote with 100 days. I think I said earlier on, I’m not entirely convinced the numbers are there in parliament for marriage equality at this stage. Hope I’m wrong about that, but I think some conservatives will need the cover of a plebiscite to vote in favour. | KM: I can’t see anything stopping the plebiscite as the mechanism to resolve this issue at this point – other than the election of a Labor government at the forthcoming election. Labor’s policy is no plebiscite and a parliamentary vote with 100 days. I think I said earlier on, I’m not entirely convinced the numbers are there in parliament for marriage equality at this stage. Hope I’m wrong about that, but I think some conservatives will need the cover of a plebiscite to vote in favour. |
| 4.37am GMT | 4.37am GMT |
| 04:37 | 04:37 |
| A bit more because I’m not inclined to waste a drop. | A bit more because I’m not inclined to waste a drop. |
| @murpharoo Where are the ALP spin doctors? There is so much this Govt could be criticised about- $$$wastage on gulags, Ministerial turnover, | @murpharoo Where are the ALP spin doctors? There is so much this Govt could be criticised about- $$$wastage on gulags, Ministerial turnover, |
| KM: There’s a few of them lurking around. I see them, lurking. | KM: There’s a few of them lurking around. I see them, lurking. |
| @murpharoo To Dep PM." Is this truly the most exciting time to be contesting New England and as underdog will you be joined by Pistol & Boo? | @murpharoo To Dep PM." Is this truly the most exciting time to be contesting New England and as underdog will you be joined by Pistol & Boo? |
| KM: Nobody tell Johnny Depp Barnaby Joyce is an underdog. Imagine the trans-Pacific repartee. | KM: Nobody tell Johnny Depp Barnaby Joyce is an underdog. Imagine the trans-Pacific repartee. |
| @murpharoo why is so hard to tell the truth? | @murpharoo why is so hard to tell the truth? |
| KM: Me, or them, Susan? | KM: Me, or them, Susan? |
| @murpharoo What election issues do you consider will be will be much bigger than they currently appear to be? | @murpharoo What election issues do you consider will be will be much bigger than they currently appear to be? |
| KM: Great question. Slightly hard to predict at this point. I would think though, if the prime minister is unable to settle the concerns of premiers about health funding in the coming budget, that the state of our hospitals in the future will be a significant campaign issue. I also think Labor’s tax policy and the debate around it will crank up several gears. | KM: Great question. Slightly hard to predict at this point. I would think though, if the prime minister is unable to settle the concerns of premiers about health funding in the coming budget, that the state of our hospitals in the future will be a significant campaign issue. I also think Labor’s tax policy and the debate around it will crank up several gears. |
| 4.29am GMT | 4.29am GMT |
| 04:29 | 04:29 |
| More reader’s edition. This really is superb. Much better than actual question time. | More reader’s edition. This really is superb. Much better than actual question time. |
| @murpharoo Who will be the first Independent to grow Trump hair? | @murpharoo Who will be the first Independent to grow Trump hair? |
| KM: Good God woman. The mind boggles. | KM: Good God woman. The mind boggles. |
| .@murpharoo Can we have a plebiscite on the defence white paper? #qt | .@murpharoo Can we have a plebiscite on the defence white paper? #qt |
| KM: I really hope not. | KM: I really hope not. |
| @murpharoo Question w/out notice Madam Speaker. Are climate and renewable policy no longer interesting now that Tony Abbott's gone? #qt | @murpharoo Question w/out notice Madam Speaker. Are climate and renewable policy no longer interesting now that Tony Abbott's gone? #qt |
| KM: Climate and renewables policy is always very near the top of my pops, and is certainly of huge interest to us at Guardian Australia – and I believe all thinking voters in this country. No diminution of interest here Andrew. Promise. | KM: Climate and renewables policy is always very near the top of my pops, and is certainly of huge interest to us at Guardian Australia – and I believe all thinking voters in this country. No diminution of interest here Andrew. Promise. |
| 4.24am GMT | 4.24am GMT |
| 04:24 | 04:24 |
| More reader’s edition. | More reader’s edition. |
| Barnaby Joyce said this morning Tony W approved Shenhua exploration licence. True or False? https://t.co/Py6qkv4O8T | Barnaby Joyce said this morning Tony W approved Shenhua exploration licence. True or False? https://t.co/Py6qkv4O8T |
| KM: He didn’t actually say that Lady C. From memory (call me out here if I’m wrong) he said the exploration license had happened when Windsor was the member for New England, which is a more general statement. That statement is like saying Katharine Murphy was in proximity to a blue light disco in 1982. More an inference than an accusation. | KM: He didn’t actually say that Lady C. From memory (call me out here if I’m wrong) he said the exploration license had happened when Windsor was the member for New England, which is a more general statement. That statement is like saying Katharine Murphy was in proximity to a blue light disco in 1982. More an inference than an accusation. |
| What is the Coalition scared off @murpharoo? They are in such a strong position, yet come across timid in terms of policy and agenda setting | What is the Coalition scared off @murpharoo? They are in such a strong position, yet come across timid in terms of policy and agenda setting |
| KM: What are they scared of? I imagine they are scared of what politicians are always scared of: stuffing up, losing an election. But I don’t think the current vacuum is a function of timidity so much as a function of having to recalibrate a whole government within sight of an election campaign, when the prime minister has limited discretion about “captain’s calls” given .. well, the past two years. That will create complicated conditions, and we are seeing them now. | KM: What are they scared of? I imagine they are scared of what politicians are always scared of: stuffing up, losing an election. But I don’t think the current vacuum is a function of timidity so much as a function of having to recalibrate a whole government within sight of an election campaign, when the prime minister has limited discretion about “captain’s calls” given .. well, the past two years. That will create complicated conditions, and we are seeing them now. |
| 4.06am GMT | 4.06am GMT |
| 04:06 | 04:06 |
| From StableQuirks in the thread. | From StableQuirks in the thread. |
| Questions Murph: | Questions Murph: |
| 1. Do you feel Morrison is making a sensible move by going into detail against Labor’s NG/CGT policy? On one hand he may find a hole in it, but on the other he is drawing attention to the fact that they have a policy and he doesn’t. Or is he just desperate for a clear talking point on the matter and none are coming from his side? | 1. Do you feel Morrison is making a sensible move by going into detail against Labor’s NG/CGT policy? On one hand he may find a hole in it, but on the other he is drawing attention to the fact that they have a policy and he doesn’t. Or is he just desperate for a clear talking point on the matter and none are coming from his side? |
| KM: In the broad? Sensible, in the conventional politics 101 sense. Labor’s position on negative gearing is a bold and electorally risky policy. Morrison’s objective will be to sink it and Labor along with it. One of the reasons, however, that Morrison looks silly right now trying to execute politics 101 is Labor can legitimately ask him what the government’s plans are. He doesn’t have an answer. Until he has an answer he’ll look desperate and political. When he has an answer (depending what the answer is) the playing field will level. | KM: In the broad? Sensible, in the conventional politics 101 sense. Labor’s position on negative gearing is a bold and electorally risky policy. Morrison’s objective will be to sink it and Labor along with it. One of the reasons, however, that Morrison looks silly right now trying to execute politics 101 is Labor can legitimately ask him what the government’s plans are. He doesn’t have an answer. Until he has an answer he’ll look desperate and political. When he has an answer (depending what the answer is) the playing field will level. |
| 2. Morrison asks why Labor hasn’t released PBO modelling. Is this something that’s exclusive to the Labor party and they must release it, or does the government automatically get this modelling from PBO as a matter of course (in which case why doesn’t Morrison just release it)? | 2. Morrison asks why Labor hasn’t released PBO modelling. Is this something that’s exclusive to the Labor party and they must release it, or does the government automatically get this modelling from PBO as a matter of course (in which case why doesn’t Morrison just release it)? |
| KM: Labor’s negative gearing policy has been costed by the PBO but there’s no modelling of the policy that we know of. Costing a policy and modelling its likely effects are two different things. I’d like to see some modelling on Labor’s policy, but I don’t think anyone has yet undertaken this exercise in detail. No, the government doesn’t get the PBO material, that’s material for whomever commissions it. | KM: Labor’s negative gearing policy has been costed by the PBO but there’s no modelling of the policy that we know of. Costing a policy and modelling its likely effects are two different things. I’d like to see some modelling on Labor’s policy, but I don’t think anyone has yet undertaken this exercise in detail. No, the government doesn’t get the PBO material, that’s material for whomever commissions it. |
| 3. Do you feel the Greens will be hurt electorally by dealing with the LNP on Senate reform, or does it depend more on what they do with preferencing or how they handle the potential DD trigger situation? Many here have compared the situation to the Democrats/GST issue, but I tend to feel this change isn’t anywhere near as much on the average voter’s radar, even Greens ones. | 3. Do you feel the Greens will be hurt electorally by dealing with the LNP on Senate reform, or does it depend more on what they do with preferencing or how they handle the potential DD trigger situation? Many here have compared the situation to the Democrats/GST issue, but I tend to feel this change isn’t anywhere near as much on the average voter’s radar, even Greens ones. |
| KM: It’s possible there will be a backlash on Senate reform, but I think you are on the right track when you note voter reaction on this will be the sum of many parts, not just this issue. I suspect Richard Di Natale has to tread quite carefully on the pragmatism front, given many Greens supporters are party of protest people, not party of government people. It’s a fine balance, particularly with Labor breathing down the Greens necks at the local level. The hand to hand combat for progressive votes at the local level is vicious. | KM: It’s possible there will be a backlash on Senate reform, but I think you are on the right track when you note voter reaction on this will be the sum of many parts, not just this issue. I suspect Richard Di Natale has to tread quite carefully on the pragmatism front, given many Greens supporters are party of protest people, not party of government people. It’s a fine balance, particularly with Labor breathing down the Greens necks at the local level. The hand to hand combat for progressive votes at the local level is vicious. |
| 4. From someone who hasn’t been a close follower of politics for a very long time, is it unusual that the Turnbull government has so little clear budget policy announced at this stage? I realise that they will obviously be slower than usual given he only became PM last year, but even so it’s been quite a while without any clear direction. | 4. From someone who hasn’t been a close follower of politics for a very long time, is it unusual that the Turnbull government has so little clear budget policy announced at this stage? I realise that they will obviously be slower than usual given he only became PM last year, but even so it’s been quite a while without any clear direction. |
| KM: We are in highly unusual circumstances right now. This government feels quite ancient yet in its current iteration it is only six months old. The current vacuum on budget policy, tax policy and economic policy is highly unusual, particularly given the proximity of the election. It is very odd to look at the government and see so much open space on the whiteboard. But folks close to the PM suggest a comprehensive strategy is in the wings. Not sure myself. Just have to wait and see. | KM: We are in highly unusual circumstances right now. This government feels quite ancient yet in its current iteration it is only six months old. The current vacuum on budget policy, tax policy and economic policy is highly unusual, particularly given the proximity of the election. It is very odd to look at the government and see so much open space on the whiteboard. But folks close to the PM suggest a comprehensive strategy is in the wings. Not sure myself. Just have to wait and see. |
| 3.47am GMT | 3.47am GMT |
| 03:47 | 03:47 |
| Ok, here’s part one of the reader’s edition. | Ok, here’s part one of the reader’s edition. |
| @murpharoo Does anyone else think it’s spectacularly creepy how much Tony and Margie look alike? | @murpharoo Does anyone else think it’s spectacularly creepy how much Tony and Margie look alike? |
| KM: No Sonia, that’s just you. I’m always very disconcerted in the presence of very fit people, but that is just me. | KM: No Sonia, that’s just you. I’m always very disconcerted in the presence of very fit people, but that is just me. |
| @murpharoo What is the funniest #QT intervention you've witnessed or heard of, NOT from the floor of the chamber? | @murpharoo What is the funniest #QT intervention you've witnessed or heard of, NOT from the floor of the chamber? |
| KM: NOT from the floor of the chamber? That would be telling Graham. A breach of my ethics. | KM: NOT from the floor of the chamber? That would be telling Graham. A breach of my ethics. |
| @murpharoo you have a $20 bill in your hand. You want to put on a bet on the election. What date do you go for? #qt | @murpharoo you have a $20 bill in your hand. You want to put on a bet on the election. What date do you go for? #qt |
| KM: Just as the ballot is secret, so are the bets BuzzFeedz. Ask me in a week. | KM: Just as the ballot is secret, so are the bets BuzzFeedz. Ask me in a week. |
| @murpharoo Is spending half a billion dollars on a plebiscite on marriage equality fiscally responsible in these times of fiscal restraint? | @murpharoo Is spending half a billion dollars on a plebiscite on marriage equality fiscally responsible in these times of fiscal restraint? |
| KM: Couple of points Noel. I don’t think it will cost that much. At least I hope not. Much and all as I think the parliament should do its job and legislate for marriage equality, I don’t actually trust the parliament to do that at the present time. I know people say the numbers are there, but I’m not entirely sure about that. A yes vote at a plebiscite (assuming that’s where we end up) would give certain recalcitrants a nudge, so in that sense it could be money well spent. | KM: Couple of points Noel. I don’t think it will cost that much. At least I hope not. Much and all as I think the parliament should do its job and legislate for marriage equality, I don’t actually trust the parliament to do that at the present time. I know people say the numbers are there, but I’m not entirely sure about that. A yes vote at a plebiscite (assuming that’s where we end up) would give certain recalcitrants a nudge, so in that sense it could be money well spent. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.54am GMT | at 3.54am GMT |
| 3.37am GMT | 3.37am GMT |
| 03:37 | 03:37 |
| I’m actually laughing so hard it’s hard to proceed, but we will. This is brilliant. | I’m actually laughing so hard it’s hard to proceed, but we will. This is brilliant. |
| 3.30am GMT | 3.30am GMT |
| 03:30 | 03:30 |
| Oh man I’ve just seen the reader’s edition questions coming in. You folks are priceless. Give me a minute and I’ll start scooping them in. | Oh man I’ve just seen the reader’s edition questions coming in. You folks are priceless. Give me a minute and I’ll start scooping them in. |