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New poll suggests Coalition is holding its ground while Turnbull slides – politics live New poll suggests Coalition is holding its ground while Turnbull slides – politics live
(35 minutes later)
11.03pm GMT
23:03
The foreign minister Julie Bishop is in Fiji to inspect the relief effort after the big cyclone. She’s already done several interviews this morning, and she’s having a media conference now.
Q: How much additional money will Australia provide?
Julie Bishop:
It’s a question of what Fiji is looking for.
10.59pm GMT
22:59
While the treasurer is driving up the road past Gundaroo, the special minister of state Mathias Cormann is making himself available on the internet on Senate voting reform.
That is absolutely your democratic right as an Australian citizen. Thank you for exercising it. https://t.co/W4KZNkKVHh
10.55pm GMT
22:55
Ray rounds out with Senate voting reform and the marriage equality plebiscite – and a recap of the Cronulla game and some chap kissing people. Then Scott resumes his drive to Canberra.
10.48pm GMT
22:48
The budget is on May 10, that's what I'm preparing for
Scott Morrison has just pulled over near Lake George to speak to Ray. Ray opens by observing media outlets are focussed on Malcolm Turnbull’s dip in popularity in the Ipsos poll - but that doesn’t matter surely if you lead on the 2PP?
Dead right Ray, Scott thinks, and polls/schmolls.
Scott Morrison:
The figures the prime minister and I are focussing on is the rising level of consumer confidence in the Australian economy.
Then to New England. Ray has spoken to people up north who think Windsor has zero chance. Ray doesn’t believe this poll in The Australian today. I don’t believe this poll with all due respect to them. Ray notes he can’t share some insights he has about Tony Windsor because of the defamation law. Ray will simply note that Tony Windsor seems to be a man of contradictions. Scott thinks so too.
Well I think so.
Morrison notes that bitterness is not a reason to be back in public life. He says Baranaby Joyce is not complacent.
Ray wants to know if the treasurer fears one lunatic being replaced by another lunatic in the parliament? (He means Clive Palmer out, Tony Windsor in.) Presumably this observation is separate to Ray’s defamatory thoughts although it’s not quite clear how.
Scott thinks Ray shouldn’t worry about that lunatic.
Barnaby will be back.
Ray is horrified. I’m not talking abut Barnaby I’m talking about the lunatic opposing him.
Scott Morrison:
Barnaby has a positive agenda.
To tax. Ray has seen a list of questions from the treasurer’s office this morning about questions Labor must answer about its negative gearing policy. Ray isn’t totally sold. At least the opposition is proposing to do something.
Scott, not sold on Ray’s analysis.
It’s a gumby of an idea.
Q: Now, the budget. May 3 or May 10?
Mmm. Ah. [Pause where the penny drops.]
May 10!
Q: Really?
The budget is on May 10. That’s what I’m preparing for.
10.30pm GMT10.30pm GMT
22:3022:30
On Sky News the Victorian Liberal party president Michael Kroger has just noted he respects Eric Abetz but he doesn’t agree with him. This concerns Greens preference deals in Victoria. Kroger: some of my best friends are Eric Abetz’s.On Sky News the Victorian Liberal party president Michael Kroger has just noted he respects Eric Abetz but he doesn’t agree with him. This concerns Greens preference deals in Victoria. Kroger: some of my best friends are Eric Abetz’s.
10.27pm GMT10.27pm GMT
22:2722:27
For readers concerned about the whereabouts of the treasurer Scott Morrison, he’s coming up on 2GB in a second when Ray Hadley stops talking about tasers and capsicum spray and a video he can’t post on his website.For readers concerned about the whereabouts of the treasurer Scott Morrison, he’s coming up on 2GB in a second when Ray Hadley stops talking about tasers and capsicum spray and a video he can’t post on his website.
10.10pm GMT10.10pm GMT
22:1022:10
It’s a public holiday here in Canberra. I hope you are in a position to enjoy it. If you aren’t, this should help. A bit.It’s a public holiday here in Canberra. I hope you are in a position to enjoy it. If you aren’t, this should help. A bit.
Good morning balloons #BalloonSpectacular #Canberra #cbr #visitcanberra pic.twitter.com/O79kUCdrwmGood morning balloons #BalloonSpectacular #Canberra #cbr #visitcanberra pic.twitter.com/O79kUCdrwm
10.08pm GMT10.08pm GMT
22:0822:08
On 3AW, the Liberal senator Scott Ryan is unhappy about a riot in Melbourne during the Moomba festival.On 3AW, the Liberal senator Scott Ryan is unhappy about a riot in Melbourne during the Moomba festival.
According to The Age “the riot had begun with threats over social media, leading to fears that two rival street gangs were going to fight at Federation Square just as families finished watching the Moomba festival fireworks. One of the gangs, known as Apex, has been linked to violent car thefts and threats of violence.”According to The Age “the riot had begun with threats over social media, leading to fears that two rival street gangs were going to fight at Federation Square just as families finished watching the Moomba festival fireworks. One of the gangs, known as Apex, has been linked to violent car thefts and threats of violence.”
Ryan seems to suggest this is a policing failure, given there had been advance warning of the incident.Ryan seems to suggest this is a policing failure, given there had been advance warning of the incident.
Scott Ryan:Scott Ryan:
Questions need to be asked why. It’s clear there was a failure.Questions need to be asked why. It’s clear there was a failure.
Ryan is then asked about some footage from the weekend where the former prime minister Tony Abbott was captured in front of a crowd booing at the mention of “the Turnbull government.”Ryan is then asked about some footage from the weekend where the former prime minister Tony Abbott was captured in front of a crowd booing at the mention of “the Turnbull government.”
The AW radio host believes he saw Abbott smirking once the boos started. Ryan isn’t rising to that bait. The Victorian senator says he’s not going to pretend that there’s not the occasional person bruised by events last year (he means the leadership change.) He says Abbott did the correct thing by referencing “the Turnbull government.” Ryan notes Abbott has had a difficult year, and he’s human.The AW radio host believes he saw Abbott smirking once the boos started. Ryan isn’t rising to that bait. The Victorian senator says he’s not going to pretend that there’s not the occasional person bruised by events last year (he means the leadership change.) He says Abbott did the correct thing by referencing “the Turnbull government.” Ryan notes Abbott has had a difficult year, and he’s human.
9.49pm GMT9.49pm GMT
21:4921:49
One thing worth noting in passing – even if Windsor doesn’t prevail in New England, he will complicate election planning for the National party. If Joyce, the party leader, faces an existential threat in his own electorate, this will complicate the party’s national campaigning effort.One thing worth noting in passing – even if Windsor doesn’t prevail in New England, he will complicate election planning for the National party. If Joyce, the party leader, faces an existential threat in his own electorate, this will complicate the party’s national campaigning effort.
Putting this most simply: Joyce is the National’s strongest brand in the bush. It would be in the interests of the Nationals to have Joyce on the road, criss crossing the country, to try and be the rising tide that lifts all boats. How much agency will Joyce have now?Putting this most simply: Joyce is the National’s strongest brand in the bush. It would be in the interests of the Nationals to have Joyce on the road, criss crossing the country, to try and be the rising tide that lifts all boats. How much agency will Joyce have now?
I can’t believe that point would be lost on Windsor.I can’t believe that point would be lost on Windsor.
9.41pm GMT9.41pm GMT
21:4121:41
There’s another poll around this morning which looks at the contest for the northern New South Wales seat of New England. Last week independent Tony Windsor announced a political comeback in the seat he vacated after the last federal election. He will run against the incumbent deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce. You would think Windsor would have a shot (I wouldn’t put it any higher than a shot) of taking that seat if he can lock up preference deals with Labor and the Greens. Windsor has been active locally against the Shenhua mine.There’s another poll around this morning which looks at the contest for the northern New South Wales seat of New England. Last week independent Tony Windsor announced a political comeback in the seat he vacated after the last federal election. He will run against the incumbent deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce. You would think Windsor would have a shot (I wouldn’t put it any higher than a shot) of taking that seat if he can lock up preference deals with Labor and the Greens. Windsor has been active locally against the Shenhua mine.
This morning’s poll published by The Australian would seem to bear that theory out. Phillip Hudson reports: “Barnaby Joyce risks becoming the first deputy prime minister to lose his seat at an election, according to a Newspoll which reveals a two-candidate swing against the Nationals leader of 16 percentage points in his rural NSW seat of New England.”This morning’s poll published by The Australian would seem to bear that theory out. Phillip Hudson reports: “Barnaby Joyce risks becoming the first deputy prime minister to lose his seat at an election, according to a Newspoll which reveals a two-candidate swing against the Nationals leader of 16 percentage points in his rural NSW seat of New England.”
Given that Monday morning heart starter, Joyce has held an early morning press conference in Tamworth.Given that Monday morning heart starter, Joyce has held an early morning press conference in Tamworth.
Q: Will you now be more active against Shenhua?Q: Will you now be more active against Shenhua?
Barnaby Joyce:Barnaby Joyce:
There is no mine that’s been approved at Shenhua. And with the actual exploratory licence, that happened when the former independent was the member. All these problems that apparently are arising now, he wasn’t able, when he had the balance of power, to stop them. Then he tells us that he’s going to stop it now.There is no mine that’s been approved at Shenhua. And with the actual exploratory licence, that happened when the former independent was the member. All these problems that apparently are arising now, he wasn’t able, when he had the balance of power, to stop them. Then he tells us that he’s going to stop it now.
Q: What about the early swing?Q: What about the early swing?
Barnaby Joyce:Barnaby Joyce:
I always expected it’d be a hard fight. I’ve never shied away from a political battle. I remember when I was in the Senate and had basically a safe seat and a safe job, I resigned from that, basically went on the unemployment queue to comedown here because I believed in the people of New England.I always expected it’d be a hard fight. I’ve never shied away from a political battle. I remember when I was in the Senate and had basically a safe seat and a safe job, I resigned from that, basically went on the unemployment queue to comedown here because I believed in the people of New England.
I believed in coming home, I believed in fighting for the people of if New England. I’ve put it all on the line before. You know it doesn’t really concern me that I put it all on the line again.I believed in coming home, I believed in fighting for the people of if New England. I’ve put it all on the line before. You know it doesn’t really concern me that I put it all on the line again.
9.25pm GMT9.25pm GMT
21:2521:25
I flagged in the opening post Tasmanian Liberal Eric Abetz is displeased this morning about the party of Menzies playing footsie with the extreme left. He’s speaking to Michael Brissenden on the AM program now.I flagged in the opening post Tasmanian Liberal Eric Abetz is displeased this morning about the party of Menzies playing footsie with the extreme left. He’s speaking to Michael Brissenden on the AM program now.
Brissenden opens with the new study on the costs of the marriage equality plebiscite, the one I noted in the opening post. Abetz says the conclusions are invalid because the calculations on opportunity cost did not take into account the distress caused to supporters of heterosexual marriage by having to contemplate the wild notion marriage equality.Brissenden opens with the new study on the costs of the marriage equality plebiscite, the one I noted in the opening post. Abetz says the conclusions are invalid because the calculations on opportunity cost did not take into account the distress caused to supporters of heterosexual marriage by having to contemplate the wild notion marriage equality.
Abetz described the work as ..Abetz described the work as ..
.. A study in inverted commas... A study in inverted commas.
Abetz is then asked what’s wrong with the Liberal party in Victoria doing a preference deal with the Greens in the coming federal campaign if it ties up Labor resources in marginal seats?Abetz is then asked what’s wrong with the Liberal party in Victoria doing a preference deal with the Greens in the coming federal campaign if it ties up Labor resources in marginal seats?
The Tasmanian says the party of Menzies took on the extreme left head on and would never countenance doing preference deals on a transactional basis.The Tasmanian says the party of Menzies took on the extreme left head on and would never countenance doing preference deals on a transactional basis.
Eric Abetz:Eric Abetz:
I think it will cost us votes if we go down that track. I’m confident we won’t.I think it will cost us votes if we go down that track. I’m confident we won’t.
He’s then asked about cooperating in parliament with the Greens.He’s then asked about cooperating in parliament with the Greens.
Deals like the deal we’ll see this week on Senate voting reform. This isn’t the same thing, Abetz contends. He says Labor has forced the government to talk to the Greens because it won’t cooperate on voting reform.Deals like the deal we’ll see this week on Senate voting reform. This isn’t the same thing, Abetz contends. He says Labor has forced the government to talk to the Greens because it won’t cooperate on voting reform.
This is not doing a deal with the Greens.This is not doing a deal with the Greens.
The horror. The horror. A deal in inverted commas.The horror. The horror. A deal in inverted commas.
9.08pm GMT9.08pm GMT
21:0821:08
Well hello thereWell hello there
Good morning good politics tragics and welcome to Monday of the final sitting week before the budget. Parliament is not actually sitting until tomorrow but my excitement was such that you’ve got a dose of Politics Live anyway. How long we’ll last today is a function of how much the political class keeps on warbling. Let’s keep the bottled water and canned goods handy and see how we go.Good morning good politics tragics and welcome to Monday of the final sitting week before the budget. Parliament is not actually sitting until tomorrow but my excitement was such that you’ve got a dose of Politics Live anyway. How long we’ll last today is a function of how much the political class keeps on warbling. Let’s keep the bottled water and canned goods handy and see how we go.
Dominant themes in this morning’s news cycle are the new Ipsos poll which shows the government ahead on the two party preferred measure 53% to Labor’s 47%. I’ll get into the other features of this poll as we jog on this morning, but suffice to say at this point this survey is more favourable to the Coalition that recent Newspolls or the Essential poll. Why? Well probably because polls tend to bounce around within their margin of error, and in any case, the week to week evidence is less important than what the trend says.Dominant themes in this morning’s news cycle are the new Ipsos poll which shows the government ahead on the two party preferred measure 53% to Labor’s 47%. I’ll get into the other features of this poll as we jog on this morning, but suffice to say at this point this survey is more favourable to the Coalition that recent Newspolls or the Essential poll. Why? Well probably because polls tend to bounce around within their margin of error, and in any case, the week to week evidence is less important than what the trend says.
Liberal Eric Abetz is unhappy that his party is contemplating a preference deal with the Greens, because, well, Greens.Liberal Eric Abetz is unhappy that his party is contemplating a preference deal with the Greens, because, well, Greens.
Crossbencher Ricky Muir is planning some fun procedural times in the Senate this week. Muir is planning a motion to bring on a vote on the Australian Building and Construction Commissi­on, which the government would very much like to use as a trigger for a double dissolution election, but can’t actually consider this week because the Greens want this week to be about Senate voting reform. As they say in our business, more to come.Crossbencher Ricky Muir is planning some fun procedural times in the Senate this week. Muir is planning a motion to bring on a vote on the Australian Building and Construction Commissi­on, which the government would very much like to use as a trigger for a double dissolution election, but can’t actually consider this week because the Greens want this week to be about Senate voting reform. As they say in our business, more to come.
And there’s some work around this morning suggesting the plebiscite on legalising same sex marriage may cost more than triple the federal government’s estimate of $160m.And there’s some work around this morning suggesting the plebiscite on legalising same sex marriage may cost more than triple the federal government’s estimate of $160m.
There’s more of course, but that will do us from a standing start. Today’s Politics Live comments thread is open for your business, so pop your touch typing fingers on and have a happy keyboard dance.There’s more of course, but that will do us from a standing start. Today’s Politics Live comments thread is open for your business, so pop your touch typing fingers on and have a happy keyboard dance.
I’m up and about on the twits and also on my new Facebook politics/media forum, which you can find here. Do stop by the Facebook forum. I hope it will be a useful place for conversation at a less frenetic pace than politics live, and I’m making it a treasure trove of my favourite pieces from both here and around the world.I’m up and about on the twits and also on my new Facebook politics/media forum, which you can find here. Do stop by the Facebook forum. I hope it will be a useful place for conversation at a less frenetic pace than politics live, and I’m making it a treasure trove of my favourite pieces from both here and around the world.
On Twitter I’m @murpharoo and he’s @mpbowersOn Twitter I’m @murpharoo and he’s @mpbowers
Roll your shoulders and pour a hot beverage. Here comes Monday.Roll your shoulders and pour a hot beverage. Here comes Monday.