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UK elections: Sadiq Khan ahead in London mayoral race - live updates UK elections: Sadiq Khan 'has won' London mayoral race - live updates
(35 minutes later)
3.58pm BST
15:58
Khan 'has won without question', says Peter Kellner
Here is out latest story on the London race.
Related: Sadiq Khan pulls ahead of Zac Goldsmith in London mayoralty vote
And it includes this quote from the pollster Peter Kellner.
With almost 80% of first-preference votes counted, Sadiq has won without question. He is well ahead on the first count and that’s not going to change radically.
3.55pm BST
15:55
Tories would be largest party in a hung parliament on basis of these results, BBC says
The BBC has broadcast figures showing a projection for what the House of Commons would look like if Britain voted in a general election today as it did in the local elections. Here are the figures.
Conservatives: 301
Labour: 253
SNP: 53
Lib Dems: 19
Ukip: 1
Given that Labour are ahead of the Tories on projected national share of the vote (see 2.43pm), you may wonder why the Tories would be so far ahead.
The explanation lies in the fact that currently the election system favours the Conservatives. They need fewer votes to win a seat in the Commons than Labour do. The system used to favour Labour, but underlying “bias” (if you can call it that) has changed.
There are two key reasons for that. First, the collapse of Labour in Scotland means that, in a general election, they “waste” lots of votes there in seats they do not win.
And, second, the collapse of the Lib Dems has helped the Tories. Previously the Tories used to “waste” a lot of vote in seats won by the Lib Dems, especially in the south west. But in 2015 the Lib Dems were wiped out in the south west, and almost everywhere else.
3.44pm BST
15:44
Tony Travers says Tory campaign in London probably backfired
Robert Booth
Prof Tony Travers, the London School of Economics professor and a sagacious commentator on London politics, has arrived at City Hall to shed light on the numbers as a Sadiq Khan victory looms. He’s interested in Khan being “the first Muslim mayor of a major western city, certainly in Europe” and what that says about London voters and Goldsmith’s campaign.
He points out that with London having a 13% Muslim population, and a disproportionate number of them below voting age, if Khan gets 40%, then he must have a majority of non-Muslims among his supporters, “which might surprise some international observers”.
Even if it comes across as quite self-satisfied, cosmopolitan London will be reflecting on this result that London is capable of putting race, religion and identity to one side. This is concrete evidence of that.
Of Goldsmith’s campaign which was widely seen as “dog-whistling” about Khan’s religion, he said:
For every one vote it gained it probably lost one or two. The Conservatives will have to have a postmortem. They would have been better hacking away at Jeremy Corbyn day and night as a strategy.
Updated
at 3.52pm BST
3.40pm BST
15:40
My colleague John Harris was at the Plymouth count last night. Here is his Anywhere but Westminster video about the election there.
3.39pm BST
15:39
In London the Tories have held the Bexley & Bromley seat in the London assembly. But their share of the vote was down seven points. Ukip are up 10 points.
Updated
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3.38pm BST
15:38
Here is a Guardian clip of Ken Livingstone earlier defending his comments last week about Hitler.
3.36pm BST
15:36
Sadiq Khan 'will win London', BBC says
John Curtice on the BBC says it is now “pretty clear” that Sadiq Khan will win in London.
3.34pm BST
15:34
Ken Livingstone, Labour’s former mayor of London, is on the BBC’s election programme and – yes, you’ve guessed it – he’s brought up Hitler again. To be fair, Jo Coburn, the presenter, asked him about last week’s row, and whether Livingstone’s comments damaged Sadiq Khan’s campaign in London. The tactful thing would have been to draw a line under the whole affair. But Livingstone said Khan could be forgiven for knowing little about this because he was just a boy when the Marxist Lenni Brenner published his book on the relationship between Zionism and Nazism. And then he was off on a Hitler history lecture …
Here is the New Statesman’s George Eaton on the exchanges.
Labour about to retake City Hall for first time since 2008. Ken reminding them how they lost it.
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at 3.37pm BST
3.26pm BST3.26pm BST
15:2615:26
Kezia Dugdale, Labour’s leader in Scotland, has sent an email to party members saying the party will keep fighting for its values.Kezia Dugdale, Labour’s leader in Scotland, has sent an email to party members saying the party will keep fighting for its values.
We could have fought an election that was about the arguments of two years ago but we chose to stand up for what we believe in. We will keep standing for our belief that we can choose to be better than this. Despite the disappointment of the final results, hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens stood with us. I’ll keep fighting for our values.We could have fought an election that was about the arguments of two years ago but we chose to stand up for what we believe in. We will keep standing for our belief that we can choose to be better than this. Despite the disappointment of the final results, hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens stood with us. I’ll keep fighting for our values.
UpdatedUpdated
at 3.28pm BSTat 3.28pm BST
3.24pm BST3.24pm BST
15:2415:24
Jon Trickett, the shadow communities secretary and Labour’s local elections coordinator, told the World at One earlier that he did not agree with Ian Murray about Labour not being seen as a credible party of government under Jeremy Corbyn. (See 2.19pm.) Trickett said:Jon Trickett, the shadow communities secretary and Labour’s local elections coordinator, told the World at One earlier that he did not agree with Ian Murray about Labour not being seen as a credible party of government under Jeremy Corbyn. (See 2.19pm.) Trickett said:
No, I don’t agree with that. We are a credible party, but it takes time to lay out a new direction.No, I don’t agree with that. We are a credible party, but it takes time to lay out a new direction.
The truth is, there is a lot of work to do, and if Ian Murray is suggesting there is more work to do to establish Labour’s credibility on the economy, on jobs, on the cuts which have been experienced, on debt, and all the rest of it, well I think there is some more work to be done.The truth is, there is a lot of work to do, and if Ian Murray is suggesting there is more work to do to establish Labour’s credibility on the economy, on jobs, on the cuts which have been experienced, on debt, and all the rest of it, well I think there is some more work to be done.
On the question of credibility, we have set out a clear economic programme now. There is more to do. We will, over the whole course of this parliament, lay out a credible programme to change this country.On the question of credibility, we have set out a clear economic programme now. There is more to do. We will, over the whole course of this parliament, lay out a credible programme to change this country.
UpdatedUpdated
at 3.27pm BSTat 3.27pm BST
3.19pm BST3.19pm BST
15:1915:19
Government abandons plans to force all schools to become academiesGovernment abandons plans to force all schools to become academies
While the news is dominated by the elections, the government has chosen this afternoon to announce a major U-turn over its plans to force schools to become academies. Nicky Morgan, the education secretary, is saying that schools that are good or outstanding will not be forced to become academies.While the news is dominated by the elections, the government has chosen this afternoon to announce a major U-turn over its plans to force schools to become academies. Nicky Morgan, the education secretary, is saying that schools that are good or outstanding will not be forced to become academies.
This is not just a moderate concession; essentially the government is dropping its core proposal. It is doing so because many Tory MPs and Tory councils objected to the plans, as Jeremy Corbyn successfully pointed out at PMQs two weeks ago. And it is announcing it this afternoon because, as the Labour aide Jo Moore once said, it’s “a good day to bury bad news”.This is not just a moderate concession; essentially the government is dropping its core proposal. It is doing so because many Tory MPs and Tory councils objected to the plans, as Jeremy Corbyn successfully pointed out at PMQs two weeks ago. And it is announcing it this afternoon because, as the Labour aide Jo Moore once said, it’s “a good day to bury bad news”.
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at 3.26pm BSTat 3.26pm BST
3.11pm BST3.11pm BST
15:1115:11
Police forces going to court to ensure possible prosecution of Tories over alleged election overspending can go aheadPolice forces going to court to ensure possible prosecution of Tories over alleged election overspending can go ahead
Turning away from the elections for a moment, the BBC’s Daniel Sandford says at least three police forces are going to court to seek an extension of a time limit rule to allow the Tories to be taken to court for breaking election expenses rules if an investigation finds enough evidence to justify prosecution.Turning away from the elections for a moment, the BBC’s Daniel Sandford says at least three police forces are going to court to seek an extension of a time limit rule to allow the Tories to be taken to court for breaking election expenses rules if an investigation finds enough evidence to justify prosecution.
There is more on the background to this here.There is more on the background to this here.
At least seven police forces are actively investigating Conservative election expenses from the 2015 General ElectionAt least seven police forces are actively investigating Conservative election expenses from the 2015 General Election
3 of the 7 forces are seeking an extension of the one year time limit on their investigations - GMP, Derbyshire and West Yorkshire3 of the 7 forces are seeking an extension of the one year time limit on their investigations - GMP, Derbyshire and West Yorkshire
The 7 forces investigating Tory expenses are West Yorks, Derbyshire, GMP, Devon & Cornwall, Gloucestershire, Northants, and StaffordshireThe 7 forces investigating Tory expenses are West Yorks, Derbyshire, GMP, Devon & Cornwall, Gloucestershire, Northants, and Staffordshire
Four further forces either considering their next steps, or waiting for more information - Wiltshire, Met, Kent Police and Nottinghamshire.Four further forces either considering their next steps, or waiting for more information - Wiltshire, Met, Kent Police and Nottinghamshire.
UpdatedUpdated
at 3.19pm BSTat 3.19pm BST
3.02pm BST3.02pm BST
15:0215:02
David Cameron has called Nicola Sturgeon to congratulate her on winning the election in Scotland. A No 10 spokesman said:David Cameron has called Nicola Sturgeon to congratulate her on winning the election in Scotland. A No 10 spokesman said:
The prime minister congratulated Ms Sturgeon on her party having the largest representation in the Scottish parliament and, in return, Ms Sturgeon congratulated the prime minister on the gains made in Scotland by his party.The prime minister congratulated Ms Sturgeon on her party having the largest representation in the Scottish parliament and, in return, Ms Sturgeon congratulated the prime minister on the gains made in Scotland by his party.
The prime minister and Ms Sturgeon agreed that the UK and Scottish governments must continue to work together constructively, most crucially in the short term on the future of the steel industry.The prime minister and Ms Sturgeon agreed that the UK and Scottish governments must continue to work together constructively, most crucially in the short term on the future of the steel industry.
It was noted that the two governments sharing information and experience could be of benefit to the steel industry across the UK and they agreed to keep in touch on this issue.It was noted that the two governments sharing information and experience could be of benefit to the steel industry across the UK and they agreed to keep in touch on this issue.
UpdatedUpdated
at 3.09pm BSTat 3.09pm BST
2.57pm BST2.57pm BST
14:5714:57
This is from the Guardian’s Dave Hill.This is from the Guardian’s Dave Hill.
As things stand, Khan/Goldsmith vote shares exactly the same as Lab/Con for 2015 GE in London: 44% plays 35%. #LondonMayor2016As things stand, Khan/Goldsmith vote shares exactly the same as Lab/Con for 2015 GE in London: 44% plays 35%. #LondonMayor2016
2.55pm BST2.55pm BST
14:5514:55
Robert BoothRobert Booth
My colleague Robert Booth has sent me this from the count at City Hall.My colleague Robert Booth has sent me this from the count at City Hall.
There’s a lot of interest here at City Hall about the count in Barnet and Camden, which is looking like it could be a microcosm of Labour’s antisemitism row. At the moment with 74% of the first preference votes counted, electors in the north London areas are voting against Sadiq Khan in favour of Zac Goldsmith.There’s a lot of interest here at City Hall about the count in Barnet and Camden, which is looking like it could be a microcosm of Labour’s antisemitism row. At the moment with 74% of the first preference votes counted, electors in the north London areas are voting against Sadiq Khan in favour of Zac Goldsmith.
Is this a reflection of the views of the large Jewish population in this constituency on Labour’s handling of the row that saw the suspension of Naz Shah MP and Ken Livingstone? Peter Kellner, the former president of YouGov who is poring over the results here, thinks so. Although I would add that when I was up at the Alexandra Palace counting centre where the Barnet and Camden votes were being processed, they appeared to be counting the Conservative-leaning Barnet votes before the Labour-leaning Camden ones.Is this a reflection of the views of the large Jewish population in this constituency on Labour’s handling of the row that saw the suspension of Naz Shah MP and Ken Livingstone? Peter Kellner, the former president of YouGov who is poring over the results here, thinks so. Although I would add that when I was up at the Alexandra Palace counting centre where the Barnet and Camden votes were being processed, they appeared to be counting the Conservative-leaning Barnet votes before the Labour-leaning Camden ones.
UpdatedUpdated
at 3.04pm BSTat 3.04pm BST
2.53pm BST2.53pm BST
14:5314:53
The Labour MP Graham Jones told the World at One that Labour should be doing much better in local elections. But he said he accepted that Jeremy Corbyn should be given more time to improve the party’s fortunes. He told the programme:The Labour MP Graham Jones told the World at One that Labour should be doing much better in local elections. But he said he accepted that Jeremy Corbyn should be given more time to improve the party’s fortunes. He told the programme:
We should really be expecting to be above 40% and getting a good set of results, or we need to be. We have got to see progress.We should really be expecting to be above 40% and getting a good set of results, or we need to be. We have got to see progress.
I think Jeremy will be given a pass on this one because he has only had the job for eight months.I think Jeremy will be given a pass on this one because he has only had the job for eight months.
Of course, next year he will have had another 12 months and I think he will be seen more critically because he will have had more time.Of course, next year he will have had another 12 months and I think he will be seen more critically because he will have had more time.
2.51pm BST2.51pm BST
14:5114:51
Libby BrooksLibby Brooks
Speaking from the steps of the first minister’s official residence, Bute House, in Edinburgh a few minutes ago Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, insisted that the election results had been “emphatic”.Speaking from the steps of the first minister’s official residence, Bute House, in Edinburgh a few minutes ago Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, insisted that the election results had been “emphatic”.
We won a clear and unequivocal mandate and I secured the personal mandate I sought to implement the bold and ambitious programme for government I asked this country to vote for.We won a clear and unequivocal mandate and I secured the personal mandate I sought to implement the bold and ambitious programme for government I asked this country to vote for.
She confirmed that she would be asking the Scottish parliament to formally re-elect her as first minister of Scotland. She added:She confirmed that she would be asking the Scottish parliament to formally re-elect her as first minister of Scotland. She added:
With such a large group of SNP MSPs elected, I don’t intend to seek any formal arrangements with any other parties. However, the government I lead will be an inclusive government. It will be firm on our determination to deliver on the commitments we made to the Scottish people but it will also reach out to others across the parliament to find common ground and build consensus.With such a large group of SNP MSPs elected, I don’t intend to seek any formal arrangements with any other parties. However, the government I lead will be an inclusive government. It will be firm on our determination to deliver on the commitments we made to the Scottish people but it will also reach out to others across the parliament to find common ground and build consensus.
Sturgeon said education remained “my passion and priority” and she was pleased that all parties’ manifestos had shown similar concerns. In an apparent nod to the Greens, who will be key players in the new Holyrood arrangement, she added that she wanted to seek agreement on tackling climate change.Sturgeon said education remained “my passion and priority” and she was pleased that all parties’ manifestos had shown similar concerns. In an apparent nod to the Greens, who will be key players in the new Holyrood arrangement, she added that she wanted to seek agreement on tackling climate change.
The government I lead will reach out. We will govern with conviction, with ambition and with determination, but also with humility and a willingness to listen and to learn from the ideas of others.The government I lead will reach out. We will govern with conviction, with ambition and with determination, but also with humility and a willingness to listen and to learn from the ideas of others.
And on the question of independence, the SNP will always make our case with passion, with patience and with respect. But our aim is to persuade, not to divide. We will always respect the opinion of the people now and in the future and we simply ask that other parties do likewise.And on the question of independence, the SNP will always make our case with passion, with patience and with respect. But our aim is to persuade, not to divide. We will always respect the opinion of the people now and in the future and we simply ask that other parties do likewise.
UpdatedUpdated
at 3.06pm BSTat 3.06pm BST
2.43pm BST
14:43
Labour 1 point ahead of Tories on projected national share
Here is more on the projected national share (PNS) figure produced by John Curtice for the BBC.
This is the estimate as to what share of the vote the parties would have got if the results of the English council elections had been replicated across the whole of Great Britain. It makes allowance for the fact that council elections are only held in certain areas. (Those areas are not representative of Britain as a whole, which is why the PNS is a more useful figure than the actual share of votes cast.)
Labour – 31%
This is two points up on 2015. (The PNS figure for 2015 is not the same as Labour’s GB share of the vote in the 2015 general election, 31%, because people voted differently in the local elections in 2015. Curtice explains this in more detail here.)
But it is seven points down on Labour’s PNS in 2012, when these seats were last fought.
Conservatives – 30%
This is five points down on the Tories’ PNS in 2015, but just one point down on 2012.
Lib Dems – 15%
This is four points up on the Lib Dems’ PNS in 2015, but one point down on their figure for 2012.
Ukip – 12%
This is one point down on Ukip’s PNS in 2015. Curtice did not produce a PNS figure for Ukip in 2012.
Updated
at 3.08pm BST
2.26pm BST
14:26
John Curtice, the psephologist is who is in charge of the BBC’s election analysis, is saying Sadiq Khan is on course to win in London with 57% of the vote.
John Curtice suggests that Khan may win 57-43 - in line with final polls#LondonMayor2016 #LondonVotes
It that turns out to be true, Khan will have won the biggest victory since Ken Livingstone in the first London mayoral election in 2000.
For the record, here are previous winning margins.
2000 - Ken Livingstone on 58%
2004 - Livingstone on 55%
2008 - Boris Johnson on 53%
2012 - Johnson on 51.5%
2.21pm BST
14:21
Political Betting’s Mike Smithson has the latest projected national share figures for the local elections from the BBC.
UKIP back in 4th place in 2016 projected national vote share from BBC. Con 30Lab 31LD 15UKIP 12UKIP failed in goal of being 3rd
2.19pm BST
14:19
Shadow Scottish secretary says Labour under Corbyn is not seen as 'credible party of government'
Ian Murray, the shadow Scottish secretary and Labour’s only MP in Scotland, told the World at One that voters in Scotland did not see Labour under Jeremy Corbyn as a “credible party of future government”. He told the programme:
I don’t think that the public see the UK Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn at the moment as being a credible party of future government in 2020.
That’s something, after this week’s results, we should reflect on, the leadership of the party should reflect on - and find a way of finding a strategy and a narrative that changes the perception of the UK Labour party across the United Kingdom so that we can go on and have a real shot at winning in 2020.
Updated
at 2.31pm BST
2.11pm BST
14:11
Welsh Labour says it is pleased with its result
The Welsh Labour party has sent me its take on its performance in Wales. Here are some extracts.
We are very pleased with today’s results. We have said consistently that this would be the toughest assembly election we’ve ever faced – and yet we beat the Tories in every battleground seat. We also beat Plaid in their number one target seat of Llanelli, and the Libs in their number one target seat of Cardiff Central.
No poll in the last six months suggested that we could achieve 29 seats, and so we defied the odds to deliver this result.
We are obviously disappointed with the loss of the Rhondda, but it was a very particular set of circumstances, and Plaid seem to have made one shock gain at the expense of the rest of their campaign, where they failed to pick up any other seats – despite campaigning for a majority.
Reports that we are actively pursuing a coalition are incorrect. Carwyn Jones has said he will talk to Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats, but that does not constitute coalition talks. Parties in Wales routinely talk to one another, and there will need to be some level of support to pass budgets and legislation.
Welsh Labour has now achieved the following results in successive assembly elections: 1999 (28 seats); 2003 (30); 2007 (26); 2011 (30); 2016 (29).
Updated
at 2.17pm BST
2.08pm BST
14:08
Anushka Asthana
Sadiq Khan was nine points ahead of his rival Zac Goldsmith after 70% of first preference votes had been counted, with allies saying they were “optimistic” that he was on track to become London’s new mayor.
A source close to the Labour politician said it was “looking good” as an online tracker showed Khan pulling out in front of his rival. But he warned that there were still a couple of strong Conservative areas to declare.
Asked whether this should be seen as a victory for Jeremy Corbyn, who will highlight how Conservatives tried to make it into an election about his leadership, the source added: “Sadiq has always said that Jeremy’s name is not on the ballot paper, it’s his. Neither is David Cameron’s or Boris Johnson’s. This has always a straight fight between Sadiq and Zac and we are optimistic.”
He would not reveal whether Khan would mention the leader in his speech, if he is declared winner later today. Conservative sources said that the counting was far from done.
Updated
at 2.16pm BST
2.02pm BST
14:02
In Northumbria Vera Baird, the Labour former solicitor general, has been re-elected as police and crime commissioner.
1.59pm BST
13:59
This is from BuzzFeed’s Siraj Datoo, with the latest from London.
Vote share has been steady for some time in London mayoral with Khan at 44% and Goldsmith at 35%.
1.57pm BST
13:57
Henry McDonald
It now appears that despite fears to the contrary the overall turnout in the Northern Ireland assembly elections will be above 50%. Counting is still ongoing and no candidate has yet been elected to the 108-strong Stormont parliament.
In Derry the Democratic Unionist MP for the neighbouring East Londonderry Westminster seat, Gregory Campbell, has told me he is confident the DUP candidate for Foyle, Gary Middleton, will take a seat in the Foyle constituency.
The veteran leftwinger and civil rights campaigner Eamon McCann, who is standing for People Before Profit in Foyle, is polling strongly and in contention for the sixth seat there. Martin McGuinness, the Sinn Féin deputy first minister of Northern Ireland, may be on course to top the poll.
According to the Electoral Office in Northern Ireland the overall number of votes polled across 18 constituencies was 703,744 – a turnout of 54.91%
Updated
at 2.14pm BST
1.53pm BST
13:53
Welcome to our continuing live coverage of the UK elections as the latest tally in the race for London mayor gives Labour’s Sadiq Khan a clear lead over his Conservative rival, Zac Goldsmith.
Claire Phipps and Haroon Siddique have a summary of where things currently stand after the biggest set of elections outside of a general election for years.
Scotland
England
Wales
Still to come
It is looking good for Khan in London. London Elects has a rolling count of the votes on its website, and Khan is well ahead.
Updated
at 2.13pm BST