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| UK elections: Sadiq Khan 'has won' London mayoral race - live updates | UK elections: Sadiq Khan 'has won' London mayoral race - live updates |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 5.13pm BST | |
| 17:13 | |
| Ben Quinn | |
| Labour MPs in the midlands have been voicing discontent with the party’s performance in the region, with one suggesting Jeremy Corbyn should step down as leader. | |
| Steve McCabe, Labour MP for Birmingham Selly Oak, told the Birmingham Mail that the party had to end its internal battles and “start listening to the people we seek to represent.” | |
| “Where we have already been doing quite well, and Birmingham is a good example, we have continued in that vein,” he added. | |
| “But if you are thinking about where Labour needs to start winning in order to be general election winners, there is no evidence we are making headway in the areas where we have to reach beyond our current base, and that is a problem for us.” | |
| Walsall North Labour MP David Winnick went even further however, suggesting that Jeremy Corbyn should consider resigning for the good of the party. | |
| He told the Press Association: “The party faces a crisis and the onus is on Jeremy himself. He should decide whether his leadership is helping or hindering the party. I think all the evidence shows that it is not helping.” | |
| Wolverhampton MP Emma Reynolds, who resigned from the shadow cabinet after Corbyn became leader, said earlier that Labour should not be content with “standing still” at a time when the Tories are in “disarray”. | |
| 5.07pm BST | |
| 17:07 | |
| The Labour peer George Foulkes thinks the media are to blame for the fact that Ken Livingstone keeps banging on about Hitler on TV. | |
| Why is private citizen Ken Livingstone on Radio & TV so often? Surely the media are not deliberately trying to cause trouble for @UKLabour | |
| 5.06pm BST | |
| 17:06 | |
| Here is an extract from the Lib Dems’ afternoon briefing about the elections | |
| The task of turning things around after last year is gargantuan, but it’s underway. We have taken control of Watford where we have wiped out the Conservatives, making us the only party to gain a council so far. The BBC national projection gives us 15% of the vote – virtually double our percentage share in 2015, and better than the last three years. In 2010 we lost 411 council seats – by mid-afternoon the BBC said we had made 30 seat gains, more than any other party. We are also the only party so far to have gained a council. | |
| This is not entirely accurate. The Lib Dem GB national share of the vote in the 2015 general election was 8% (almost half 15%), but its projected national share for the 2015 local elections (the relevant figure for comparison purposes) was 11%. That’s because the Lib Dems tend to do better in local elections than in national elections. | |
| 4.58pm BST | |
| 16:58 | |
| Robert Booth | |
| Andrew Boff, the former Conservative leader in the London assembly, has renewed his criticism of Zac Goldsmith’s campaign. He says he is certain the campaign cost the party votes, particularly second preferences. | |
| I hope we don’t do this stupid thing again by trying to bring Sadiq [Khan] down by saying he is an extremist. He is not an extremist. He went out and engaged with people with orthodox religious views. Dialogue is not assisted by shutting people out. | |
| 4.55pm BST | |
| 16:55 | |
| In London the Tories have held West Central. Earlier, by mistake, we said Labour had held it. Sorry. | |
| 4.51pm BST | |
| 16:51 | |
| Helen Pidd | |
| There were few big upsets in the north of England’s town halls. Labour held on to all of its northern councils and its two directly elected mayors in Liverpool and Salford. But it failed to make serious gains from the Tories in target seats. | |
| In marginal councils, such as Calderdale in West Yorkshire and Pendle in east Lancashire, Labour lost ground to the Tories. Labour’s complete grip over Manchester also came to an end with the former Liberal Democrat MP John Leech becoming a one-man opposition to the Labour hegemony. The Lib Dems also made two gains in both Hull and Liverpool. | |
| Elsewhere in Greater Manchester a Labour councillor in Bury blamed Ken Livingstone for two Labour colleagues losing their seats in a heavily Jewish populated ward. Alan Quinn told the Manchester Evening News his party had lost two “hard-working and proud” councillors in Prestwich because of a “backlash against the Labour party”. Stockport remains in no overall control, despite Labour becoming the biggest party after unseating the Lib Dem council leader, Sue Derbyshire. | |
| In Carlisle, another target marginal Labour failed to win from the Tories in last year’s general election, the party lost one seat to an independent but remains the largest political grouping. | |
| But in Bradford, Labour gained three seats. There are now no councillors for George Galloway’s Respect party in the West Yorkshire city: of the five elected in the so-called Bradford Spring of 2012, four did not seek re-election. The other, Mohammed Shabbir, defected to Labour but is currently suspended as part of the row about antisemitic posts on Facebook. | |
| Updated | |
| at 5.05pm BST | |
| 4.46pm BST | |
| 16:46 | |
| Henry McDonald | |
| Martin McGuinness has topped the poll on first preference votes with 5,037. His two Sinn Féin running mates, Maeve McLaughlin and Raymond McCartney, got 3,062 and 3,198. | |
| McGuinness is guaranteed a seat of course but the other interesting development in the Foyle constituency is the strong performance of the veteran civil rights campaigner Eamon McCann, who has come away with 4,176 first preferences. | |
| Outside the declaration hall here in the brand new Foyle Arena leisure centre one of McCann’s supporters, the former civil rights icon and one time MP Bernadette McAliskey (formerly Devlin) spoke to one of her colleagues, stating: “We are on our way.” | |
| The Democratic Unionist party, as predicted by the DUP MP Gregory Campbell, is on course to take a seat. Gary Middleton has taken 4,737 first preferences. | |
| And there has been a political upset in West Belfast, the Sinn Féin heartland. | |
| The leftwing People Before Profit candidate, Gerry Carroll, has topped the poll on first preference votes. | |
| It is now possible – if Eamon McCann is elected in Derry – that we will have two Marxist assembly members on the opposition benches in the new Stormont parliament. Carroll was elected on the first count. | |
| Updated | |
| at 4.55pm BST | |
| 4.42pm BST | |
| 16:42 | |
| John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, has said that Labour did well in these elections, and that Jeremy Corbyn’s critics should “put up or shut up”. Earlier he said: | |
| I’ve been talking to Labour party members all over the country, they’re saying for those begrudgers – because that’s what they are – for goodness sake, get behind the leader of the Labour party that was democratically elected. It’s time to put up or shut up. I think most Labour party members are saying look, you’re damaging our campaign by the continuous carping. | |
| I’ve never been in a situation where two days before a poll a group of them are talking to the media about a leadership coup – and yet we still do well. Look, get behind us and stop carping, there’s room for everyone in this Labour party. Everyone can make a constructive contribution. That’s what we expect them to do. | |
| Updated | |
| at 4.53pm BST | |
| 4.40pm BST | 4.40pm BST |
| 16:40 | 16:40 |
| Chris Prosser, an academic who works with the British Election Study, thinks the local election results suggest Labour will lose the general election. He has developed a model for forecasting general election performance based on local election vote share which he says was successful in 2015, and he says there is a 92% probability the Tories will be the biggest party in 2020. | Chris Prosser, an academic who works with the British Election Study, thinks the local election results suggest Labour will lose the general election. He has developed a model for forecasting general election performance based on local election vote share which he says was successful in 2015, and he says there is a 92% probability the Tories will be the biggest party in 2020. |
| He explains it in a British Election Study blog here. Here is an excerpt. | He explains it in a British Election Study blog here. Here is an excerpt. |
| Before the last election I developed a method for forecasting general election performance based on local election vote shares that takes these differences into account. The forecast uses local election vote share estimates and controls for party and incumbency differences in the relationship between local and general votes shares. It does not model the time until the next election because historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before. | |
| Although it was necessarily based on data that was at least years old by the time of the 2015 election the method performed remarkably well in 2015 – of the 12 academic forecasts submitted to a special symposium on forecasting the 2015 election my local elections method was the closest to the actual Conservative lead in the election and correctly forecasted that the Conservatives would win the most votes. | Although it was necessarily based on data that was at least years old by the time of the 2015 election the method performed remarkably well in 2015 – of the 12 academic forecasts submitted to a special symposium on forecasting the 2015 election my local elections method was the closest to the actual Conservative lead in the election and correctly forecasted that the Conservatives would win the most votes. |
| So what does my forecast tell us about what might happen in 2020? Using the PNS results my model predicts that the Conservatives will get 37% of the vote, Labour 30%, Liberal Democrats 11%, and Ukip 11%. Unsurprisingly given that the next general election is likely to be four years away there is a great deal of uncertainty in exact vote shares forecast, as illustrated in the figure below. Despite the uncertainty over the exact vote shares the forecast is very confident – with a 92% probability – that the Conservatives will be the largest party at the next general election. | |
| Updated | |
| at 4.52pm BST | |
| 4.31pm BST | 4.31pm BST |
| 16:31 | 16:31 |
| In London Labour have gained Merton & Wandsworth from the Conservatives in the assembly. | In London Labour have gained Merton & Wandsworth from the Conservatives in the assembly. |
| Labour have held Lambeth & Southwark. | |
| And the Conservatives have held West Central. | |
| Updated | |
| at 4.55pm BST | |
| 4.26pm BST | 4.26pm BST |
| 16:26 | 16:26 |
| Labour’s Paddy Tipping has been re-elected as police and crime commissioner in Nottinghamshire. | Labour’s Paddy Tipping has been re-elected as police and crime commissioner in Nottinghamshire. |
| 4.25pm BST | 4.25pm BST |
| 16:25 | 16:25 |
| Outgoing Tory deputy mayor of London says Goldsmith's campaign will leave 'negative legacy' | Outgoing Tory deputy mayor of London says Goldsmith's campaign will leave 'negative legacy' |
| Roger Evans, who has been a Conservative deputy mayor of London under Boris Johnson for the last year, has joined those in his party criticising Zac Goldsmith’s campaign for the way it sought to depict Sadiq Khan as an extremist. Evans has told BuzzFeed: | Roger Evans, who has been a Conservative deputy mayor of London under Boris Johnson for the last year, has joined those in his party criticising Zac Goldsmith’s campaign for the way it sought to depict Sadiq Khan as an extremist. Evans has told BuzzFeed: |
| I’m concerned that the campaign we’ve run is going to leave a negative legacy which we in London are going to have to clear up long after the people who ran Zac Goldsmith’s campaign have gone on their way. | I’m concerned that the campaign we’ve run is going to leave a negative legacy which we in London are going to have to clear up long after the people who ran Zac Goldsmith’s campaign have gone on their way. |
| I’ve been the deputy mayor for the last year and it’s been my job to go and talk to communities in London. | I’ve been the deputy mayor for the last year and it’s been my job to go and talk to communities in London. |
| I’ve always been very pleased with the courtesy with which I was received and the hearing all communities were willing to give to a Conservative politician. | I’ve always been very pleased with the courtesy with which I was received and the hearing all communities were willing to give to a Conservative politician. |
| We’re going to have to do quite a lot of work to re-establish trust with a lot of communities in London. That’s a shame and an opportunity missed. | We’re going to have to do quite a lot of work to re-establish trust with a lot of communities in London. That’s a shame and an opportunity missed. |
| Last night Andrew Boff, the former Conservative leader in the London assembly, said the Goldsmith campaign was “outrageous”. | Last night Andrew Boff, the former Conservative leader in the London assembly, said the Goldsmith campaign was “outrageous”. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.51pm BST | |