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UK elections: Sadiq Khan 'has won' London mayoral race - live updates UK elections: Sadiq Khan 'has won' London mayoral race - live updates
(35 minutes later)
4.40pm BST
16:40
Chris Prosser, an academic who works with the British Election Study, thinks the local election results suggest Labour will lose the general election. He has developed a model for forecasting general election performance based on local election vote share which he says was successful in 2015, and he says there is a 92% probability the Tories will be the biggest party in 2020.
He explains it in a British Election Study blog here. Here is an excerpt.
Before the last election I developed a method for forecasting general election performance based on local election vote sharesthat takes these differences into account. The forecast uses local election vote share estimates and controls for party and incumbency differences in the relationship between local and general votes shares. It does not model the time until the next election because historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before.
Although it was necessarily based on data that was at least years old by the time of the 2015 election the method performed remarkably well in 2015 – of the 12 academic forecasts submitted to a special symposium on forecasting the 2015 election my local elections method was the closest to the actual Conservative lead in the election and correctly forecasted that the Conservatives would win the most votes.
So what does my forecast tell us about what might happen in 2020? Using the PNS results my model predicts that the Conservatives will get 37% of the vote, Labour 30%, Liberal Democrat 11%, and UKIP 11%. Unsurprisingly given that the next general election is likely to be four years away there is a great deal of uncertainty in exact vote shares forecast, as illustrated in the figure below. Despite the uncertainty over the exact vote shares the forecast is very confident – with a 92% probability – that the Conservatives will be the largest party at the next general election.
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In London Labour have gained Merton & Wandsworth from the Conservatives in the assembly.
And Labour have held Lambeth & Southwark and West Central.
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Labour’s Paddy Tipping has been re-elected as police and crime commissioner in Nottinghamshire.
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Outgoing Tory deputy mayor of London says Goldsmith's campaign will leave 'negative legacy'
Roger Evans, who has been a Conservative deputy mayor of London under Boris Johnson for the last year, has joined those in his party criticising Zac Goldsmith’s campaign for the way it sought to depict Sadiq Khan as an extremist. Evans has told BuzzFeed:
I’m concerned that the campaign we’ve run is going to leave a negative legacy which we in London are going to have to clear up long after the people who ran Zac Goldsmith’s campaign have gone on their way.
I’ve been the deputy mayor for the last year and it’s been my job to go and talk to communities in London.
I’ve always been very pleased with the courtesy with which I was received and the hearing all communities were willing to give to a Conservative politician.
We’re going to have to do quite a lot of work to re-establish trust with a lot of communities in London. That’s a shame and an opportunity missed.
Last night Andrew Boff, the former Conservative leader in the London assembly, said the Goldsmith campaign was “outrageous”.
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My colleague Gary Younge says the elections show that Jeremy Corbyn’s critics are wrong, and that he is viable as a leader.
Related: Ignore the doom merchants: Corbyn has shown he’s a viable leader | Gary Younge
Here’s an excerpt.
One indication that Corbyn’s opponents in the party do not fully believe their own agenda is that talk of plotting a coup has receded following these elections, not escalated. His opponents had been hoping for a worse night.
There may well be a ceiling to how many people will vote for the party with him in charge – although we are a long way from finding out. But there clearly appears to be a floor to his ostensible “toxicity”. Put bluntly, a large number of Labour voters in England remain loyal to the party and will continue to vote for it with him at the helm.
To the extent that all these elections are a referendum on the wisdom or otherwise of electing Corbyn leader the only pertinent question is whether the party would have fared any better if any of the other candidates had been running the show. There’s nothing to suggest it would have done. Corbyn kept his head above water. Like the witch-hunters of yore, for now they will condemn him for that.
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Labour’s Paul Dennett has been elected mayor in Salford.
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The Lib Dems say they have won control of Watford. They were the biggest party, but it was under no overall control. But the Lib Dems have gained seven seats, taking them to 25. Labour lost one seat.
3.58pm BST3.58pm BST
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Khan 'has won without question', says Peter KellnerKhan 'has won without question', says Peter Kellner
Here is out latest story on the London race. Here is our latest story on the London race.
Related: Sadiq Khan pulls ahead of Zac Goldsmith in London mayoralty voteRelated: Sadiq Khan pulls ahead of Zac Goldsmith in London mayoralty vote
And it includes this quote from the pollster Peter Kellner.And it includes this quote from the pollster Peter Kellner.
With almost 80% of first-preference votes counted, Sadiq has won without question. He is well ahead on the first count and that’s not going to change radically.With almost 80% of first-preference votes counted, Sadiq has won without question. He is well ahead on the first count and that’s not going to change radically.
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Tories would be largest party in a hung parliament on basis of these results, BBC saysTories would be largest party in a hung parliament on basis of these results, BBC says
The BBC has broadcast figures showing a projection for what the House of Commons would look like if Britain voted in a general election today as it did in the local elections. Here are the figures.The BBC has broadcast figures showing a projection for what the House of Commons would look like if Britain voted in a general election today as it did in the local elections. Here are the figures.
Conservatives: 301Conservatives: 301
Labour: 253Labour: 253
SNP: 53SNP: 53
Lib Dems: 19Lib Dems: 19
Ukip: 1Ukip: 1
Given that Labour are ahead of the Tories on projected national share of the vote (see 2.43pm), you may wonder why the Tories would be so far ahead.Given that Labour are ahead of the Tories on projected national share of the vote (see 2.43pm), you may wonder why the Tories would be so far ahead.
The explanation lies in the fact that currently the election system favours the Conservatives. They need fewer votes to win a seat in the Commons than Labour do. The system used to favour Labour, but underlying “bias” (if you can call it that) has changed.The explanation lies in the fact that currently the election system favours the Conservatives. They need fewer votes to win a seat in the Commons than Labour do. The system used to favour Labour, but underlying “bias” (if you can call it that) has changed.
There are two key reasons for that. First, the collapse of Labour in Scotland means that, in a general election, they “waste” lots of votes there in seats they do not win.There are two key reasons for that. First, the collapse of Labour in Scotland means that, in a general election, they “waste” lots of votes there in seats they do not win.
And, second, the collapse of the Lib Dems has helped the Tories. Previously the Tories used to “waste” a lot of vote in seats won by the Lib Dems, especially in the south west. But in 2015 the Lib Dems were wiped out in the south west, and almost everywhere else.And, second, the collapse of the Lib Dems has helped the Tories. Previously the Tories used to “waste” a lot of vote in seats won by the Lib Dems, especially in the south west. But in 2015 the Lib Dems were wiped out in the south west, and almost everywhere else.
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Tony Travers says Tory campaign in London probably backfiredTony Travers says Tory campaign in London probably backfired
Robert BoothRobert Booth
Prof Tony Travers, the London School of Economics professor and a sagacious commentator on London politics, has arrived at City Hall to shed light on the numbers as a Sadiq Khan victory looms. He’s interested in Khan being “the first Muslim mayor of a major western city, certainly in Europe” and what that says about London voters and Goldsmith’s campaign.Prof Tony Travers, the London School of Economics professor and a sagacious commentator on London politics, has arrived at City Hall to shed light on the numbers as a Sadiq Khan victory looms. He’s interested in Khan being “the first Muslim mayor of a major western city, certainly in Europe” and what that says about London voters and Goldsmith’s campaign.
He points out that with London having a 13% Muslim population, and a disproportionate number of them below voting age, if Khan gets 40%, then he must have a majority of non-Muslims among his supporters, “which might surprise some international observers”.He points out that with London having a 13% Muslim population, and a disproportionate number of them below voting age, if Khan gets 40%, then he must have a majority of non-Muslims among his supporters, “which might surprise some international observers”.
Even if it comes across as quite self-satisfied, cosmopolitan London will be reflecting on this result that London is capable of putting race, religion and identity to one side. This is concrete evidence of that.Even if it comes across as quite self-satisfied, cosmopolitan London will be reflecting on this result that London is capable of putting race, religion and identity to one side. This is concrete evidence of that.
Of Goldsmith’s campaign which was widely seen as “dog-whistling” about Khan’s religion, he said:Of Goldsmith’s campaign which was widely seen as “dog-whistling” about Khan’s religion, he said:
For every one vote it gained it probably lost one or two. The Conservatives will have to have a postmortem. They would have been better hacking away at Jeremy Corbyn day and night as a strategy.For every one vote it gained it probably lost one or two. The Conservatives will have to have a postmortem. They would have been better hacking away at Jeremy Corbyn day and night as a strategy.
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My colleague John Harris was at the Plymouth count last night. Here is his Anywhere but Westminster video about the election there.My colleague John Harris was at the Plymouth count last night. Here is his Anywhere but Westminster video about the election there.
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In London the Tories have held the Bexley & Bromley seat in the London assembly. But their share of the vote was down seven points. Ukip are up 10 points.In London the Tories have held the Bexley & Bromley seat in the London assembly. But their share of the vote was down seven points. Ukip are up 10 points.
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Here is a Guardian clip of Ken Livingstone earlier defending his comments last week about Hitler.Here is a Guardian clip of Ken Livingstone earlier defending his comments last week about Hitler.
3.36pm BST3.36pm BST
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Sadiq Khan 'will win London', BBC saysSadiq Khan 'will win London', BBC says
John Curtice on the BBC says it is now “pretty clear” that Sadiq Khan will win in London.John Curtice on the BBC says it is now “pretty clear” that Sadiq Khan will win in London.
3.34pm BST
15:34
Ken Livingstone, Labour’s former mayor of London, is on the BBC’s election programme and – yes, you’ve guessed it – he’s brought up Hitler again. To be fair, Jo Coburn, the presenter, asked him about last week’s row, and whether Livingstone’s comments damaged Sadiq Khan’s campaign in London. The tactful thing would have been to draw a line under the whole affair. But Livingstone said Khan could be forgiven for knowing little about this because he was just a boy when the Marxist Lenni Brenner published his book on the relationship between Zionism and Nazism. And then he was off on a Hitler history lecture …
Here is the New Statesman’s George Eaton on the exchanges.
Labour about to retake City Hall for first time since 2008. Ken reminding them how they lost it.
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3.26pm BST
15:26
Kezia Dugdale, Labour’s leader in Scotland, has sent an email to party members saying the party will keep fighting for its values.
We could have fought an election that was about the arguments of two years ago but we chose to stand up for what we believe in. We will keep standing for our belief that we can choose to be better than this. Despite the disappointment of the final results, hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens stood with us. I’ll keep fighting for our values.
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Jon Trickett, the shadow communities secretary and Labour’s local elections coordinator, told the World at One earlier that he did not agree with Ian Murray about Labour not being seen as a credible party of government under Jeremy Corbyn. (See 2.19pm.) Trickett said:
No, I don’t agree with that. We are a credible party, but it takes time to lay out a new direction.
The truth is, there is a lot of work to do, and if Ian Murray is suggesting there is more work to do to establish Labour’s credibility on the economy, on jobs, on the cuts which have been experienced, on debt, and all the rest of it, well I think there is some more work to be done.
On the question of credibility, we have set out a clear economic programme now. There is more to do. We will, over the whole course of this parliament, lay out a credible programme to change this country.
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3.19pm BST
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Government abandons plans to force all schools to become academies
While the news is dominated by the elections, the government has chosen this afternoon to announce a major U-turn over its plans to force schools to become academies. Nicky Morgan, the education secretary, is saying that schools that are good or outstanding will not be forced to become academies.
This is not just a moderate concession; essentially the government is dropping its core proposal. It is doing so because many Tory MPs and Tory councils objected to the plans, as Jeremy Corbyn successfully pointed out at PMQs two weeks ago. And it is announcing it this afternoon because, as the Labour aide Jo Moore once said, it’s “a good day to bury bad news”.
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3.11pm BST
15:11
Police forces going to court to ensure possible prosecution of Tories over alleged election overspending can go ahead
Turning away from the elections for a moment, the BBC’s Daniel Sandford says at least three police forces are going to court to seek an extension of a time limit rule to allow the Tories to be taken to court for breaking election expenses rules if an investigation finds enough evidence to justify prosecution.
There is more on the background to this here.
At least seven police forces are actively investigating Conservative election expenses from the 2015 General Election
3 of the 7 forces are seeking an extension of the one year time limit on their investigations - GMP, Derbyshire and West Yorkshire
The 7 forces investigating Tory expenses are West Yorks, Derbyshire, GMP, Devon & Cornwall, Gloucestershire, Northants, and Staffordshire
Four further forces either considering their next steps, or waiting for more information - Wiltshire, Met, Kent Police and Nottinghamshire.
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David Cameron has called Nicola Sturgeon to congratulate her on winning the election in Scotland. A No 10 spokesman said:
The prime minister congratulated Ms Sturgeon on her party having the largest representation in the Scottish parliament and, in return, Ms Sturgeon congratulated the prime minister on the gains made in Scotland by his party.
The prime minister and Ms Sturgeon agreed that the UK and Scottish governments must continue to work together constructively, most crucially in the short term on the future of the steel industry.
It was noted that the two governments sharing information and experience could be of benefit to the steel industry across the UK and they agreed to keep in touch on this issue.
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This is from the Guardian’s Dave Hill.
As things stand, Khan/Goldsmith vote shares exactly the same as Lab/Con for 2015 GE in London: 44% plays 35%. #LondonMayor2016
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Robert Booth
My colleague Robert Booth has sent me this from the count at City Hall.
There’s a lot of interest here at City Hall about the count in Barnet and Camden, which is looking like it could be a microcosm of Labour’s antisemitism row. At the moment with 74% of the first preference votes counted, electors in the north London areas are voting against Sadiq Khan in favour of Zac Goldsmith.
Is this a reflection of the views of the large Jewish population in this constituency on Labour’s handling of the row that saw the suspension of Naz Shah MP and Ken Livingstone? Peter Kellner, the former president of YouGov who is poring over the results here, thinks so. Although I would add that when I was up at the Alexandra Palace counting centre where the Barnet and Camden votes were being processed, they appeared to be counting the Conservative-leaning Barnet votes before the Labour-leaning Camden ones.
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The Labour MP Graham Jones told the World at One that Labour should be doing much better in local elections. But he said he accepted that Jeremy Corbyn should be given more time to improve the party’s fortunes. He told the programme:
We should really be expecting to be above 40% and getting a good set of results, or we need to be. We have got to see progress.
I think Jeremy will be given a pass on this one because he has only had the job for eight months.
Of course, next year he will have had another 12 months and I think he will be seen more critically because he will have had more time.
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Libby Brooks
Speaking from the steps of the first minister’s official residence, Bute House, in Edinburgh a few minutes ago Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, insisted that the election results had been “emphatic”.
We won a clear and unequivocal mandate and I secured the personal mandate I sought to implement the bold and ambitious programme for government I asked this country to vote for.
She confirmed that she would be asking the Scottish parliament to formally re-elect her as first minister of Scotland. She added:
With such a large group of SNP MSPs elected, I don’t intend to seek any formal arrangements with any other parties. However, the government I lead will be an inclusive government. It will be firm on our determination to deliver on the commitments we made to the Scottish people but it will also reach out to others across the parliament to find common ground and build consensus.
Sturgeon said education remained “my passion and priority” and she was pleased that all parties’ manifestos had shown similar concerns. In an apparent nod to the Greens, who will be key players in the new Holyrood arrangement, she added that she wanted to seek agreement on tackling climate change.
The government I lead will reach out. We will govern with conviction, with ambition and with determination, but also with humility and a willingness to listen and to learn from the ideas of others.
And on the question of independence, the SNP will always make our case with passion, with patience and with respect. But our aim is to persuade, not to divide. We will always respect the opinion of the people now and in the future and we simply ask that other parties do likewise.
Updated
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