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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/may/31/eu-referendum-live-leave-johnson-gove-remain-business-poll
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| EU referendum live – Leave victory 'could scrap VAT on energy bills' | EU referendum live – Leave victory 'could scrap VAT on energy bills' |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 7.45am BST | |
| 07:45 | |
| JD Wetherspoon has printed 200,000 beer mats bearing a message arguing for the UK to leave the European Union, Press Association reports. | |
| The beer mats will be available in the company’s 920 pubs across the UK In the run-up to the referendum. | |
| The message draws attention to governance issues with senior staff at the IMF and asks why UK voters should trust the views of Christine Lagarde, who has voiced her support for the Remain group. | |
| The beer mat has a message on both sides, which is signed by Wetherspoon founder and chairman Tim Martin, a strong believer in leaving the EU. | |
| Martin said: “Corporate governance at the IMF is clearly out of control and Christine Lagarde would have been obliged to resign at any normal plc or institution until the matters in question were resolved. | |
| “The UK public have been asked to rely on her comments by both George Osborne and David Cameron in the forthcoming referendum and she must now answer the questions on the beer mats and others that the public may have.” | |
| I don’t yet have an image of the beer mat, so any readers currently enjoying a breakfast pint in a Wetherspoon’s pub, please do get in touch. Bonus points if you’re Christine Lagarde. | |
| 7.34am BST | |
| 07:34 | |
| If Britain does vote to leave the EU on 23 June, what happens next – and how quickly? | |
| My colleagues Patrick Wintour and Jennifer Rankin have compiled this useful primer on how a British exit would be negotiated (and what would happen to David Cameron) in the hours, days, weeks and months after a vote to leave: | |
| A shattered David Cameron, his leadership already a matter of speculation, will have no option but to make a statement outside 10 Downing Street saying he will respect the mandate of the British people. The Treasury, Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) will move quickly to roll out well-hidden battle plans to prevent market chaos. | |
| A shocked European political class will find itself grappling with an unprecedented, messy and sprawling divorce that could rumble on for years. | |
| The EU will respond as it does to any crisis, and convene an emergency summit. | |
| Related: What happens next if Britain votes to leave the EU? | |
| 7.24am BST | |
| 07:24 | |
| I’m guessing the chancellor is referring here to the claims by Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Gisela Stuart today that a win for Leave could see VAT on fuel bills scrapped: | |
| More fantasy economics from Vote Leave: leaving EU would lead to smaller economy, a hole in public finances + higher taxes - like higher VAT | |
| As Norman Smith on the Today programme put it (though I paraphrase): leaving the EU might mean a UK government would be entitled to scrap or cut VAT on household energy bills – but whether that government could afford to do so is another question. | |
| 7.19am BST | |
| 07:19 | |
| Louise Stewart, from the Federation of Small Businesses, has just been interviewed on the Today programme – the Remain camp is making small business, and what it says would be the risks of leaving the EU, its focus today. | |
| Stewart says the federation is officially neutral on EU membership. But she says some members do complain about the red tape coming from Europe; the “top burden”, she says, being the working time directive, which limits the hours employees can be required to work. | |
| 7.14am BST | 7.14am BST |
| 07:14 | 07:14 |
| Tuesday’s Guardian front page kicks off what it’s calling “the final countdown” (ho ho) to the vote: | Tuesday’s Guardian front page kicks off what it’s calling “the final countdown” (ho ho) to the vote: |
| Tuesday's Guardian front page:Can Cameron keep Britain in Europe?#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/0MeXs9fEIF | Tuesday's Guardian front page:Can Cameron keep Britain in Europe?#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/0MeXs9fEIF |
| 6.52am BST | 6.52am BST |
| 06:52 | 06:52 |
| Morning briefing | Morning briefing |
| Claire Phipps | Claire Phipps |
| Good morning and welcome to the start of the Guardian’s daily EU referendum coverage as the campaign begins in earnest (all that campaigning so far? Consider it an amuse-bouche, perhaps one you didn’t order but took a taste of anyway, just to be polite). | Good morning and welcome to the start of the Guardian’s daily EU referendum coverage as the campaign begins in earnest (all that campaigning so far? Consider it an amuse-bouche, perhaps one you didn’t order but took a taste of anyway, just to be polite). |
| We’ll be bringing you daily coverage as the Remain and Leave camps take their final arguments to voters ahead of the referendum on 23 June, starting at 7am with a morning briefing that will set you up for the day ahead and catch you up on the polls, claims and celebrity endorsements that might just sway/cement your decision. | We’ll be bringing you daily coverage as the Remain and Leave camps take their final arguments to voters ahead of the referendum on 23 June, starting at 7am with a morning briefing that will set you up for the day ahead and catch you up on the polls, claims and celebrity endorsements that might just sway/cement your decision. |
| I’ll be setting out the morning briefing and steering the live blog each morning until Andrew Sparrow takes his seat. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps. | I’ll be setting out the morning briefing and steering the live blog each morning until Andrew Sparrow takes his seat. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps. |
| The big picture | The big picture |
| With three-and-a-half weeks left before the vote, expect to see more pro-Remain Tories sharing platforms with Labour, Green and Liberal Democrat campaigners – witness David Cameron’s rapprochement with London mayor Sadiq Khan – as efforts are stepped up to make this really, truly not a story about Conservative divisions. | With three-and-a-half weeks left before the vote, expect to see more pro-Remain Tories sharing platforms with Labour, Green and Liberal Democrat campaigners – witness David Cameron’s rapprochement with London mayor Sadiq Khan – as efforts are stepped up to make this really, truly not a story about Conservative divisions. |
| Labour has its work cut out, too, as a campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe, seen by the Guardian, says only half of Labour voters are aware that the party is in favour of staying in the EU. The rest reportedly believe the party is split over the issue or backs Brexit: | Labour has its work cut out, too, as a campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe, seen by the Guardian, says only half of Labour voters are aware that the party is in favour of staying in the EU. The rest reportedly believe the party is split over the issue or backs Brexit: |
| The analysis, sent to some Labour MPs, found that focus groups in London, Brighton and Ipswich over the past few weeks showed voters were “uniformly uncertain” about whether Labour was campaigning to stay in the EU. They did not know what Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn thought or believed he was for remain but “his heart isn’t in it”. | The analysis, sent to some Labour MPs, found that focus groups in London, Brighton and Ipswich over the past few weeks showed voters were “uniformly uncertain” about whether Labour was campaigning to stay in the EU. They did not know what Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn thought or believed he was for remain but “his heart isn’t in it”. |
| Meanwhile, Cabinet minister Chris Grayling will today say that the NHS and pensions are under threat inside the EU: | Meanwhile, Cabinet minister Chris Grayling will today say that the NHS and pensions are under threat inside the EU: |
| When there are new EU rules on pensions, skills and health, they will apply to us too. It means the EU starting to set the rules for our NHS. With no opt-out. And millions more people able to access our free at the point of delivery service as countries like Albania, Serbia and then Turkey join the EU. | When there are new EU rules on pensions, skills and health, they will apply to us too. It means the EU starting to set the rules for our NHS. With no opt-out. And millions more people able to access our free at the point of delivery service as countries like Albania, Serbia and then Turkey join the EU. |
| In the Sun, fellow Brexiteers Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Labour’s Gisela Stuart say they could scrap VAT on household fuel bills once free from EU rules (the assumption that they – or two-thirds of them, say – would be the people making such decisions in a post-Leave government is left to readers to surmise). | In the Sun, fellow Brexiteers Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Labour’s Gisela Stuart say they could scrap VAT on household fuel bills once free from EU rules (the assumption that they – or two-thirds of them, say – would be the people making such decisions in a post-Leave government is left to readers to surmise). |
| Claims by Migration Watch that up to half a million refugees and their families could move to Britain after 2020 have been slammed by the Remain campaign as “false and bogus”. As my colleague Rowena Mason reports: | Claims by Migration Watch that up to half a million refugees and their families could move to Britain after 2020 have been slammed by the Remain campaign as “false and bogus”. As my colleague Rowena Mason reports: |
| The study was cited as ‘more evidence of the uncontrollable scale of immigration to this country’ by Iain Duncan Smith, the former work and pensions secretary, who is campaigning for Brexit. | The study was cited as ‘more evidence of the uncontrollable scale of immigration to this country’ by Iain Duncan Smith, the former work and pensions secretary, who is campaigning for Brexit. |
| However, Britain Stronger in Europe, the official campaign to stay in the EU, said the study was based on the ‘false and bogus’ assumption that refugees would be granted EU citizenship. | However, Britain Stronger in Europe, the official campaign to stay in the EU, said the study was based on the ‘false and bogus’ assumption that refugees would be granted EU citizenship. |
| And more than 200 Cambridge University academics have signed a letter to the Telegraph arguing that leaving the EU would put at risk “our foremost position in research and innovation”. | And more than 200 Cambridge University academics have signed a letter to the Telegraph arguing that leaving the EU would put at risk “our foremost position in research and innovation”. |
| You should also know: | You should also know: |
| Poll position | Poll position |
| Approach polls with caution and a sceptical eyebrow, of course, especially given the 2015 general election non-triumph. But, caveats in hand, an ORB poll for the Daily Telegraph today shows a narrowing of Remain’s lead over Leave, with the in-crowd slipping four points to 51% and the out-ers up four to 46%. | Approach polls with caution and a sceptical eyebrow, of course, especially given the 2015 general election non-triumph. But, caveats in hand, an ORB poll for the Daily Telegraph today shows a narrowing of Remain’s lead over Leave, with the in-crowd slipping four points to 51% and the out-ers up four to 46%. |
| All of which leads Number Cruncher politics to put the chances of a Brexit vote at 19%: | All of which leads Number Cruncher politics to put the chances of a Brexit vote at 19%: |
| Forecast and % probability:REMAIN 56 (=)LEAVE 44 (=)REMAIN WIN 81 (=)LEAVE WIN 19 (=)https://t.co/rhRhKe4Rtd pic.twitter.com/Mh3S6fXQKo | Forecast and % probability:REMAIN 56 (=)LEAVE 44 (=)REMAIN WIN 81 (=)LEAVE WIN 19 (=)https://t.co/rhRhKe4Rtd pic.twitter.com/Mh3S6fXQKo |
| Diary | Diary |
| Talking point | Talking point |
| Broadcaster Jon Snow has labelled the referendum campaign “abusive” and “boring” in an article in which he compared the current debate unfavourably with the “coherent and comprehensible” Scottish independence campaign in 2014. Snow was critical of media coverage while pointing out that politicians had not given journalists much to work with: | Broadcaster Jon Snow has labelled the referendum campaign “abusive” and “boring” in an article in which he compared the current debate unfavourably with the “coherent and comprehensible” Scottish independence campaign in 2014. Snow was critical of media coverage while pointing out that politicians had not given journalists much to work with: |
| With so few weeks to go before the vote, I believe that the negativity, the bickering, the foul-mouthing, and particularly the wholesale abuse of facts by both sides have seen off most of our attempts to make the vote interesting. | With so few weeks to go before the vote, I believe that the negativity, the bickering, the foul-mouthing, and particularly the wholesale abuse of facts by both sides have seen off most of our attempts to make the vote interesting. |
| Although those who can remember as far back as 2014 might not have such uncomplicated memories of the tone of Scotland’s referendum campaign and its media coverage … | Although those who can remember as far back as 2014 might not have such uncomplicated memories of the tone of Scotland’s referendum campaign and its media coverage … |
| Read these | Read these |
| Lynton Crosby, writing in the Telegraph, says the latest poll suggests that expectation of victory could be encouraging Remain voters into sluggishness: | Lynton Crosby, writing in the Telegraph, says the latest poll suggests that expectation of victory could be encouraging Remain voters into sluggishness: |
| The reality is that at this stage, the Leave and Remain campaigns have two different strategic imperatives. The challenge for the Remain campaign is to identify and motivate their voters to actually show up on June 23. Twice as many voters in this poll cite Leave as a risk as think remaining in the UK is a risk. This could continue to be the best way to motivate Remain voters to turn up. | The reality is that at this stage, the Leave and Remain campaigns have two different strategic imperatives. The challenge for the Remain campaign is to identify and motivate their voters to actually show up on June 23. Twice as many voters in this poll cite Leave as a risk as think remaining in the UK is a risk. This could continue to be the best way to motivate Remain voters to turn up. |
| The challenge for the Leave campaign is to persuade more voters of their position. Their existing voters are more motivated but they need more voters to be convinced that voting out offers something better. | The challenge for the Leave campaign is to persuade more voters of their position. Their existing voters are more motivated but they need more voters to be convinced that voting out offers something better. |
| Rachel Sylvester in the Times (paywall) says divisions in the campaign are about more than Europe: | Rachel Sylvester in the Times (paywall) says divisions in the campaign are about more than Europe: |
| Class, as well as age, will be a defining factor in the referendum. One of the few things the opinion polls agree on is that educated middle-class voters are far more likely to support remaining in the EU. According to YouGov, 70% of graduates back Remain and 62% of AB voters. In contrast Leave has the support of 63% of DE voters and 62% of those with qualifications up to GCSE level. | Class, as well as age, will be a defining factor in the referendum. One of the few things the opinion polls agree on is that educated middle-class voters are far more likely to support remaining in the EU. According to YouGov, 70% of graduates back Remain and 62% of AB voters. In contrast Leave has the support of 63% of DE voters and 62% of those with qualifications up to GCSE level. |
| The campaign has highlighted a profound culture clash between the world view of metropolitan liberals who are relaxed about immigration and those who are struggling to thrive in rural areas and seaside towns, threatened by the rapidly changing world. As a pro-Brexit MP puts it: ‘One side sees the others as bigots and the other side sees them as snobs.’ | The campaign has highlighted a profound culture clash between the world view of metropolitan liberals who are relaxed about immigration and those who are struggling to thrive in rural areas and seaside towns, threatened by the rapidly changing world. As a pro-Brexit MP puts it: ‘One side sees the others as bigots and the other side sees them as snobs.’ |
| In the Financial Times (paywall), Chris Giles and Jim Pickard report that hedge funds and investment banks have commissioned private exit polls: | In the Financial Times (paywall), Chris Giles and Jim Pickard report that hedge funds and investment banks have commissioned private exit polls: |
| By finding out the voting patterns early on June 23 and predicting the result, entrepreneurial traders can lay big bets on the result, hoping to be the first to benefit financially from a government-induced swing in sterling … | By finding out the voting patterns early on June 23 and predicting the result, entrepreneurial traders can lay big bets on the result, hoping to be the first to benefit financially from a government-induced swing in sterling … |
| Early indications of the likely result in the referendum will be indirectly visible from foreign exchange and sterling derivative markets before the polls close, if big money is bet on the result. | Early indications of the likely result in the referendum will be indirectly visible from foreign exchange and sterling derivative markets before the polls close, if big money is bet on the result. |
| Too much of the EU debate has been pragmatic and parochial, argues this Guardian editorial: | Too much of the EU debate has been pragmatic and parochial, argues this Guardian editorial: |
| The European Union is far from perfect. Yet even in its imperfection, it provides the conditions in which British education and British culture have shone as rarely before. Why else have so many artists and academics been so energised on behalf of Remain? From within the EU, Britain can both enjoy the strength derived from connections with its European neighbours and open itself up to the rest of the world. | The European Union is far from perfect. Yet even in its imperfection, it provides the conditions in which British education and British culture have shone as rarely before. Why else have so many artists and academics been so energised on behalf of Remain? From within the EU, Britain can both enjoy the strength derived from connections with its European neighbours and open itself up to the rest of the world. |
| Find all the Guardian coverage of the referendum campaign here. | Find all the Guardian coverage of the referendum campaign here. |
| Baffling claim of the day | Baffling claim of the day |
| Alan Sugar, writing in the Sun in favour of Remain, offers this tantalising – and completely unexplained – analogy: | Alan Sugar, writing in the Sun in favour of Remain, offers this tantalising – and completely unexplained – analogy: |
| So you might ask: why leave? The song There’s a Hole in my Bucket comes to mind here. | So you might ask: why leave? The song There’s a Hole in my Bucket comes to mind here. |
| Celebrity endorsement of the day | Celebrity endorsement of the day |
| A few contenders today. Stephen Hawking says the UK should stay in the EU – but he already showed his anti-Brexit workings back in March. The Leave campaign has been showing off Ian Botham and his worries about the UK becoming “cluttered” – but we knew that too. | A few contenders today. Stephen Hawking says the UK should stay in the EU – but he already showed his anti-Brexit workings back in March. The Leave campaign has been showing off Ian Botham and his worries about the UK becoming “cluttered” – but we knew that too. |
| So instead the honour goes to Paul McCartney, who told French newspaper Le Parisien that he’s … not sure: | So instead the honour goes to Paul McCartney, who told French newspaper Le Parisien that he’s … not sure: |
| It’s crazy in England at the moment! Everyone I talk to goes from one extreme to the other. I’m the same, I haven’t decided yet. | It’s crazy in England at the moment! Everyone I talk to goes from one extreme to the other. I’m the same, I haven’t decided yet. |
| The day in a tweet | The day in a tweet |
| EU referendum now part of my whatsapp convo with my besties. I've been waiting months for this moment pic.twitter.com/mIjp6dPPaL | EU referendum now part of my whatsapp convo with my besties. I've been waiting months for this moment pic.twitter.com/mIjp6dPPaL |
| If today were a romantic comedy ... | If today were a romantic comedy ... |
| It would be Friends With Benefits: unlikely partners cosy up to achieve a, ahem, shared goal. Or, as Peter Bradshaw reviewed it, “frantically unromantic and unfunny”. | It would be Friends With Benefits: unlikely partners cosy up to achieve a, ahem, shared goal. Or, as Peter Bradshaw reviewed it, “frantically unromantic and unfunny”. |
| NB: not those kinds of benefits. | NB: not those kinds of benefits. |