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| EU referendum live – Leave victory 'could scrap VAT on energy bills' | EU referendum live – Leave victory 'could scrap VAT on energy bills' |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| 10.30am BST | |
| 10:30 | |
| Vote Leave’s chief executive Matthew Elliott has responded to the claim that Leave campaigners have made spending promises worth £112bn. (See 9.01am.) He said: | |
| BSE are simply making up numbers and have invented pledges that don’t exist. If we Vote Leave, we can spend the £50 million we hand to the EU every day on our priorities, like using a small proportion of it to cut energy bills and eases the pressure on family budgets. | |
| The Remain campaign should admit that if we vote In then Brussels will be in charge of VAT levels and will continue taxing low-income families. | |
| (Vote Leave like referring to Britain Stronger in Europe by the acronym BSE because of its obvious unfortunate connotations.) | |
| But the Vote Leave bus implies that the £50m per day (which isn’t £50m per day, remember) will be spent on the NHS. It is quite unusual in a campaign to be rebutted by your own battlebus. | |
| Admittedly, Elliott only talks about using a “small proportion” of the money that would be saved by not having to pay a contribution to the EU on cutting fuel bills. But the Sun is costing the Gove/Johnson/Stuart proposal at £2bn, which is a quarter of the £8bn-odd that would be saved. That is not a “small proportion”. | |
| Updated | |
| at 10.42am BST | |
| 10.13am BST | |
| 10:13 | |
| Gove says VAT is a 'very unfair tax' | |
| Michael Gove, the justice secretary and co-convenor of the Vote Leave campaign committee, has been giving interviews this morning. Here are the key points he has been making. | |
| And fuel bills will be lower for everyone. | |
| In 1993, VAT on household energy bills was imposed. This makes gas and electricity much more expensive. EU rules mean we cannot take VAT off those bills. | |
| The least wealthy are hit particularly hard. The poorest households spend three times more of their income on household energy bills than the richest households spend. | |
| As long as we are in the EU, we are not allowed to cut this tax. | |
| When we Vote Leave, we will be able to scrap this unfair and damaging tax. | |
| In an interview this morning, Gove admitted that it would be up to the government to decide after Brexit whether to scrap VAT on fuel and that he personally was not in a position to make this promise. | |
| It would be up to the government after we vote to Leave ... I’m not the prime minister; I’m not the chancellor of the exchequer. But one thing is for certain: we could not do it if we remain in the European Union. | |
| (In the comments, maxfisher points out the Tories don’t exactly have a good record when it comes to cutting VAT.) | |
| Personally I think it would be the right thing to do, because VAT is a very unfair tax, it hits the poorest people hardest, and actually the cost of fuel for the poorest households is about £105 of their weekly income. I think it would be a really good thing if we could help the poorest people in our country by removing this unfair tax burden on them, which will hit particularly hard as we go into the winter. | |
| It is worth reminding readers that in his first budget in 2010 George Osborne raised VAT from 17.5% to 20%, raising £13bn a year. | |
| I think that David Cameron should stay as prime minister. The country voted for David to be prime minister in the general election last year ... I want David Cameron to be prime minister right up until the next election. | |
| The one thing I absolutely don’t want to do is to be prime minister. | |
| I think it is absolutely right to say that some of the people who are backing Remain are the people at the top of multinationals and the top of investment banks who do very well thank you out of the European Union. And I also think it’s the case that the people who suffer most as a result of our membership of the European Union are the poorest, they are the people whose wages are lower and whose access for example to NHS services is more difficult. | |
| This is a more tactful version of the argument that Priti Patel, the pro-Brexit employment minister, put in a Sunday Telegraph article at the weekend. Patel was more blunt, implying that Cameron and George Osborne did not understand voters’ concerns about immigration because they were too posh. | |
| I’ve taken some of the quotes from PoliticsHome. | |
| 9.30am BST | 9.30am BST |
| 09:30 | 09:30 |
| According to the Sun, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is being lined up to be one of the three speakers representing Remain in the ITV debate being held next week. | According to the Sun, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is being lined up to be one of the three speakers representing Remain in the ITV debate being held next week. |
| 9.20am BST | 9.20am BST |
| 09:20 | 09:20 |
| Britain Stronger in Europe have released a video message from Lord Sugar, the Apprentice star, businessman, former Labour peer and - as of last week - government enterprise tsar. | Britain Stronger in Europe have released a video message from Lord Sugar, the Apprentice star, businessman, former Labour peer and - as of last week - government enterprise tsar. |
| A pyschologist would have fun with this. Sugar starts: “I started my business when I was seventeen years old from a council flat in Clapton. I am not a drug dealer, I didn’t rob banks ...” | A pyschologist would have fun with this. Sugar starts: “I started my business when I was seventeen years old from a council flat in Clapton. I am not a drug dealer, I didn’t rob banks ...” |
| Whoever said you did, Alan? | Whoever said you did, Alan? |
| Still, Sugar’s key message is direct and punchy. | Still, Sugar’s key message is direct and punchy. |
| You could not be listening to a bigger gambler than me. I’ve gambled all my life in business, okay, and I am telling you this is a gamble that we cannot afford to take ... | You could not be listening to a bigger gambler than me. I’ve gambled all my life in business, okay, and I am telling you this is a gamble that we cannot afford to take ... |
| Let me put it in very plain terms. This is not a general election, this is not something that’s going to come round in five years’ time, oh, it didn’t work, okay well we’ll have another vote. No. No, this is the most serious vote you most probably will ever make in your lifetime. | Let me put it in very plain terms. This is not a general election, this is not something that’s going to come round in five years’ time, oh, it didn’t work, okay well we’ll have another vote. No. No, this is the most serious vote you most probably will ever make in your lifetime. |
| Now I’ve been in business for many years and I’ve seen plenty of daft ideas and duff proposals in my time and Britain leaving the European Union is one of them. | Now I’ve been in business for many years and I’ve seen plenty of daft ideas and duff proposals in my time and Britain leaving the European Union is one of them. |
| 9.10am BST | 9.10am BST |
| 09:10 | 09:10 |
| Ryan Coetzee, Britain Stronger in Europe’s director of strategy, has responded to my tweet about their costings document. | Ryan Coetzee, Britain Stronger in Europe’s director of strategy, has responded to my tweet about their costings document. |
| @AndrewSparrow It's just a record of what they have claimed. The point is their claims are nonsensical and dishonest. | @AndrewSparrow It's just a record of what they have claimed. The point is their claims are nonsensical and dishonest. |
| 9.01am BST | 9.01am BST |
| 09:01 | 09:01 |
| Britain Stronger in Europe accuse Leave of making spending promises worth £112bn | Britain Stronger in Europe accuse Leave of making spending promises worth £112bn |
| Andrew Sparrow | Andrew Sparrow |
| Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire. | Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire. |
| The EU referendum campaign is becoming more like a general election every day. One standard feature of an election campaign is the attack document listing unfunded spending commitments and, as Claire reported earlier, Britain Stronger in Europe have put out their own version this morning, accusing the Leave camp of making promises worth £112bn. | The EU referendum campaign is becoming more like a general election every day. One standard feature of an election campaign is the attack document listing unfunded spending commitments and, as Claire reported earlier, Britain Stronger in Europe have put out their own version this morning, accusing the Leave camp of making promises worth £112bn. |
| The full press notice is not available on the internet yet, but here is the key table. | The full press notice is not available on the internet yet, but here is the key table. |
| A British DARPA is Defence Advance Research Projects Agency. | A British DARPA is Defence Advance Research Projects Agency. |
| Britain Stronger in Europe have adopted a maximalist approach to their costings. | Britain Stronger in Europe have adopted a maximalist approach to their costings. |
| One of the biggest items on the list is an extra £18.2bn for the NHS. They have arrived at this figure by taking literally Vote Leave’s claim that EU membership costs the UK £350m a week (it doesn’t) and that this could all be spent on the NHS. | One of the biggest items on the list is an extra £18.2bn for the NHS. They have arrived at this figure by taking literally Vote Leave’s claim that EU membership costs the UK £350m a week (it doesn’t) and that this could all be spent on the NHS. |
| Another is an extra £18.25bn for pensions, which they have produced by citing a Nigel Farage quote in the Guardian saying the £350m a week money could go on pensions instead. (The difference between the £18.2bn and the £18.25bn is explained by the fact that Farage talked about a saving of £50m a day, not £350m a week, giving a slightly different annual figure.) | Another is an extra £18.25bn for pensions, which they have produced by citing a Nigel Farage quote in the Guardian saying the £350m a week money could go on pensions instead. (The difference between the £18.2bn and the £18.25bn is explained by the fact that Farage talked about a saving of £50m a day, not £350m a week, giving a slightly different annual figure.) |
| And the third biggest item on the list is £17.2bn spent reducing council tax. The source for this, as a Leave camp “spending commitment” is a tweet from the Tory MEP Daniel Hannan saying not having to pay EU contributions could lead to the government being able to cut council tax by 60%. | And the third biggest item on the list is £17.2bn spent reducing council tax. The source for this, as a Leave camp “spending commitment” is a tweet from the Tory MEP Daniel Hannan saying not having to pay EU contributions could lead to the government being able to cut council tax by 60%. |
| Will Straw, Britain Stronger in Europe’s executive director, says his research shows that Leave have been using “fantasy economics”. | Will Straw, Britain Stronger in Europe’s executive director, says his research shows that Leave have been using “fantasy economics”. |
| The Leave campaign has been exposed once again for promoting fantasy economics. There would be no saving and no tax cuts because our economy would be damaged by leaving. | The Leave campaign has been exposed once again for promoting fantasy economics. There would be no saving and no tax cuts because our economy would be damaged by leaving. |
| 8.23am BST | 8.23am BST |
| 08:23 | 08:23 |
| Claire Phipps | Claire Phipps |
| I’m handing over the live blog now to Andrew Sparrow, who’ll steer you through the rest of the day. | I’m handing over the live blog now to Andrew Sparrow, who’ll steer you through the rest of the day. |
| A reminder: your daily referendum briefing is here to ensure you’re up to speed with the latest ins and outs on the in and out campaigns. Thanks for reading. | A reminder: your daily referendum briefing is here to ensure you’re up to speed with the latest ins and outs on the in and out campaigns. Thanks for reading. |
| Related: EU referendum morning briefing: fuel bills, Ian Botham and bickering | Related: EU referendum morning briefing: fuel bills, Ian Botham and bickering |
| 8.21am BST | 8.21am BST |
| 08:21 | 08:21 |
| Michael Gove, interviewed on ITV’s Good Morning Britain, says cutting VAT on energy bills – something he, along with Boris Johnson and Gisela Stuart, has written about in the Sun this morning – would save the average household £64 a year. | Michael Gove, interviewed on ITV’s Good Morning Britain, says cutting VAT on energy bills – something he, along with Boris Johnson and Gisela Stuart, has written about in the Sun this morning – would save the average household £64 a year. |
| 8.07am BST | 8.07am BST |
| 08:07 | 08:07 |
| A report just published by the Remain camp claims Vote Leave has made unfunded promises worth £111bn – 10 times greater than any potential saving from keeping monies currently paid to the EU, it says. | A report just published by the Remain camp claims Vote Leave has made unfunded promises worth £111bn – 10 times greater than any potential saving from keeping monies currently paid to the EU, it says. |
| The report claims that Vote Leave has made 20 spending commitments – covering the NHS, schools and farming among others – that are unfunded, and have labelled Vote Leave’s vision a “make-believe land of milk and honey”, according to the BBC. | The report claims that Vote Leave has made 20 spending commitments – covering the NHS, schools and farming among others – that are unfunded, and have labelled Vote Leave’s vision a “make-believe land of milk and honey”, according to the BBC. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.13am BST | at 8.13am BST |
| 7.56am BST | 7.56am BST |
| 07:56 | 07:56 |
| And in non-referendum news (because there still is a little of that), confirmation that the Labour MP and shadow minister for mental health, Luciana Berger, will stand to be mayor of Liverpool city region. My colleague Frances Perraudin reports: | And in non-referendum news (because there still is a little of that), confirmation that the Labour MP and shadow minister for mental health, Luciana Berger, will stand to be mayor of Liverpool city region. My colleague Frances Perraudin reports: |
| Berger so far faces a battle with with Joe Anderson, who has been the city’s current mayor since 2010, and Steve Rotherham, the MP for Walton, to secure the Labour nomination. | Berger so far faces a battle with with Joe Anderson, who has been the city’s current mayor since 2010, and Steve Rotherham, the MP for Walton, to secure the Labour nomination. |
| Labour’s dominance of the city means that whoever wins the party’s nomination is likely to win the overall competition. | Labour’s dominance of the city means that whoever wins the party’s nomination is likely to win the overall competition. |
| Related: Luciana Berger to stand for mayor of Liverpool city region | Related: Luciana Berger to stand for mayor of Liverpool city region |
| 7.45am BST | 7.45am BST |
| 07:45 | 07:45 |
| JD Wetherspoon has printed 200,000 beer mats bearing a message arguing for the UK to leave the European Union, Press Association reports. | JD Wetherspoon has printed 200,000 beer mats bearing a message arguing for the UK to leave the European Union, Press Association reports. |
| The beer mats will be available in the company’s 920 pubs across the UK In the run-up to the referendum. | The beer mats will be available in the company’s 920 pubs across the UK In the run-up to the referendum. |
| The message draws attention to governance issues with senior staff at the IMF and asks why UK voters should trust the views of Christine Lagarde, who has voiced her support for the Remain group. | The message draws attention to governance issues with senior staff at the IMF and asks why UK voters should trust the views of Christine Lagarde, who has voiced her support for the Remain group. |
| The beer mat has a message on both sides, which is signed by Wetherspoon founder and chairman Tim Martin, a strong believer in leaving the EU. | The beer mat has a message on both sides, which is signed by Wetherspoon founder and chairman Tim Martin, a strong believer in leaving the EU. |
| Martin said: “Corporate governance at the IMF is clearly out of control and Christine Lagarde would have been obliged to resign at any normal plc or institution until the matters in question were resolved. | Martin said: “Corporate governance at the IMF is clearly out of control and Christine Lagarde would have been obliged to resign at any normal plc or institution until the matters in question were resolved. |
| “The UK public have been asked to rely on her comments by both George Osborne and David Cameron in the forthcoming referendum and she must now answer the questions on the beer mats and others that the public may have.” | “The UK public have been asked to rely on her comments by both George Osborne and David Cameron in the forthcoming referendum and she must now answer the questions on the beer mats and others that the public may have.” |
| I don’t yet have an image of the beer mat, so any readers currently enjoying a breakfast pint in a Wetherspoon’s pub, please do get in touch. Bonus points if you’re Christine Lagarde. | I don’t yet have an image of the beer mat, so any readers currently enjoying a breakfast pint in a Wetherspoon’s pub, please do get in touch. Bonus points if you’re Christine Lagarde. |
| 8.30am update: here’s the beer mat image as promised | 8.30am update: here’s the beer mat image as promised |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.34am BST | at 8.34am BST |
| 7.34am BST | 7.34am BST |
| 07:34 | 07:34 |
| If Britain does vote to leave the EU on 23 June, what happens next – and how quickly? | If Britain does vote to leave the EU on 23 June, what happens next – and how quickly? |
| My colleagues Patrick Wintour and Jennifer Rankin have compiled this useful primer on how a British exit would be negotiated (and what would happen to David Cameron) in the hours, days, weeks and months after a vote to leave: | My colleagues Patrick Wintour and Jennifer Rankin have compiled this useful primer on how a British exit would be negotiated (and what would happen to David Cameron) in the hours, days, weeks and months after a vote to leave: |
| A shattered David Cameron, his leadership already a matter of speculation, will have no option but to make a statement outside 10 Downing Street saying he will respect the mandate of the British people. The Treasury, Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) will move quickly to roll out well-hidden battle plans to prevent market chaos. | A shattered David Cameron, his leadership already a matter of speculation, will have no option but to make a statement outside 10 Downing Street saying he will respect the mandate of the British people. The Treasury, Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) will move quickly to roll out well-hidden battle plans to prevent market chaos. |
| A shocked European political class will find itself grappling with an unprecedented, messy and sprawling divorce that could rumble on for years. | A shocked European political class will find itself grappling with an unprecedented, messy and sprawling divorce that could rumble on for years. |
| The EU will respond as it does to any crisis, and convene an emergency summit. | The EU will respond as it does to any crisis, and convene an emergency summit. |
| Related: What happens next if Britain votes to leave the EU? | Related: What happens next if Britain votes to leave the EU? |
| 7.24am BST | 7.24am BST |
| 07:24 | 07:24 |
| I’m guessing the chancellor is referring here to the claims by Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Gisela Stuart today that a win for Leave could see VAT on fuel bills scrapped: | I’m guessing the chancellor is referring here to the claims by Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Gisela Stuart today that a win for Leave could see VAT on fuel bills scrapped: |
| More fantasy economics from Vote Leave: leaving EU would lead to smaller economy, a hole in public finances + higher taxes - like higher VAT | More fantasy economics from Vote Leave: leaving EU would lead to smaller economy, a hole in public finances + higher taxes - like higher VAT |
| As Norman Smith on the Today programme put it (though I paraphrase): leaving the EU might mean a UK government would be entitled to scrap or cut VAT on household energy bills – but whether that government could afford to do so is another question. | As Norman Smith on the Today programme put it (though I paraphrase): leaving the EU might mean a UK government would be entitled to scrap or cut VAT on household energy bills – but whether that government could afford to do so is another question. |
| 7.19am BST | 7.19am BST |
| 07:19 | 07:19 |
| Louise Stewart, from the Federation of Small Businesses, has just been interviewed on the Today programme – the Remain camp is making small business, and what it says would be the risks of leaving the EU, its focus today. | Louise Stewart, from the Federation of Small Businesses, has just been interviewed on the Today programme – the Remain camp is making small business, and what it says would be the risks of leaving the EU, its focus today. |
| Stewart says the federation is officially neutral on EU membership. But she says some members do complain about the red tape coming from Europe; the “top burden”, she says, being the working time directive, which limits the hours employees can be required to work. | Stewart says the federation is officially neutral on EU membership. But she says some members do complain about the red tape coming from Europe; the “top burden”, she says, being the working time directive, which limits the hours employees can be required to work. |
| 7.14am BST | 7.14am BST |
| 07:14 | 07:14 |
| Tuesday’s Guardian front page kicks off what it’s calling “the final countdown” (ho ho) to the vote: | Tuesday’s Guardian front page kicks off what it’s calling “the final countdown” (ho ho) to the vote: |
| Tuesday's Guardian front page:Can Cameron keep Britain in Europe?#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/0MeXs9fEIF | Tuesday's Guardian front page:Can Cameron keep Britain in Europe?#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/0MeXs9fEIF |
| 6.52am BST | 6.52am BST |
| 06:52 | 06:52 |
| Morning briefing | Morning briefing |
| Claire Phipps | Claire Phipps |
| Good morning and welcome to the start of the Guardian’s daily EU referendum coverage as the campaign begins in earnest (all that campaigning so far? Consider it an amuse-bouche, perhaps one you didn’t order but took a taste of anyway, just to be polite). | Good morning and welcome to the start of the Guardian’s daily EU referendum coverage as the campaign begins in earnest (all that campaigning so far? Consider it an amuse-bouche, perhaps one you didn’t order but took a taste of anyway, just to be polite). |
| We’ll be bringing you daily coverage as the Remain and Leave camps take their final arguments to voters ahead of the referendum on 23 June, starting at 7am with a morning briefing that will set you up for the day ahead and catch you up on the polls, claims and celebrity endorsements that might just sway/cement your decision. | We’ll be bringing you daily coverage as the Remain and Leave camps take their final arguments to voters ahead of the referendum on 23 June, starting at 7am with a morning briefing that will set you up for the day ahead and catch you up on the polls, claims and celebrity endorsements that might just sway/cement your decision. |
| I’ll be setting out the morning briefing and steering the live blog each morning until Andrew Sparrow takes his seat. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps. | I’ll be setting out the morning briefing and steering the live blog each morning until Andrew Sparrow takes his seat. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps. |
| The big picture | The big picture |
| With three-and-a-half weeks left before the vote, expect to see more pro-Remain Tories sharing platforms with Labour, Green and Liberal Democrat campaigners – witness David Cameron’s rapprochement with London mayor Sadiq Khan – as efforts are stepped up to make this really, truly not a story about Conservative divisions. | With three-and-a-half weeks left before the vote, expect to see more pro-Remain Tories sharing platforms with Labour, Green and Liberal Democrat campaigners – witness David Cameron’s rapprochement with London mayor Sadiq Khan – as efforts are stepped up to make this really, truly not a story about Conservative divisions. |
| Labour has its work cut out, too, as a campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe, seen by the Guardian, says only half of Labour voters are aware that the party is in favour of staying in the EU. The rest reportedly believe the party is split over the issue or backs Brexit: | Labour has its work cut out, too, as a campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe, seen by the Guardian, says only half of Labour voters are aware that the party is in favour of staying in the EU. The rest reportedly believe the party is split over the issue or backs Brexit: |
| The analysis, sent to some Labour MPs, found that focus groups in London, Brighton and Ipswich over the past few weeks showed voters were “uniformly uncertain” about whether Labour was campaigning to stay in the EU. They did not know what Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn thought or believed he was for remain but “his heart isn’t in it”. | The analysis, sent to some Labour MPs, found that focus groups in London, Brighton and Ipswich over the past few weeks showed voters were “uniformly uncertain” about whether Labour was campaigning to stay in the EU. They did not know what Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn thought or believed he was for remain but “his heart isn’t in it”. |
| Meanwhile, Cabinet minister Chris Grayling will today say that the NHS and pensions are under threat inside the EU: | Meanwhile, Cabinet minister Chris Grayling will today say that the NHS and pensions are under threat inside the EU: |
| When there are new EU rules on pensions, skills and health, they will apply to us too. It means the EU starting to set the rules for our NHS. With no opt-out. And millions more people able to access our free at the point of delivery service as countries like Albania, Serbia and then Turkey join the EU. | When there are new EU rules on pensions, skills and health, they will apply to us too. It means the EU starting to set the rules for our NHS. With no opt-out. And millions more people able to access our free at the point of delivery service as countries like Albania, Serbia and then Turkey join the EU. |
| In the Sun, fellow Brexiteers Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Labour’s Gisela Stuart say they could scrap VAT on household fuel bills once free from EU rules (the assumption that they – or two-thirds of them, say – would be the people making such decisions in a post-Leave government is left to readers to surmise). | In the Sun, fellow Brexiteers Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Labour’s Gisela Stuart say they could scrap VAT on household fuel bills once free from EU rules (the assumption that they – or two-thirds of them, say – would be the people making such decisions in a post-Leave government is left to readers to surmise). |
| Claims by Migration Watch that up to half a million refugees and their families could move to Britain after 2020 have been slammed by the Remain campaign as “false and bogus”. As my colleague Rowena Mason reports: | Claims by Migration Watch that up to half a million refugees and their families could move to Britain after 2020 have been slammed by the Remain campaign as “false and bogus”. As my colleague Rowena Mason reports: |
| The study was cited as ‘more evidence of the uncontrollable scale of immigration to this country’ by Iain Duncan Smith, the former work and pensions secretary, who is campaigning for Brexit. | The study was cited as ‘more evidence of the uncontrollable scale of immigration to this country’ by Iain Duncan Smith, the former work and pensions secretary, who is campaigning for Brexit. |
| However, Britain Stronger in Europe, the official campaign to stay in the EU, said the study was based on the ‘false and bogus’ assumption that refugees would be granted EU citizenship. | However, Britain Stronger in Europe, the official campaign to stay in the EU, said the study was based on the ‘false and bogus’ assumption that refugees would be granted EU citizenship. |
| And more than 200 Cambridge University academics have signed a letter to the Telegraph arguing that leaving the EU would put at risk “our foremost position in research and innovation”. | And more than 200 Cambridge University academics have signed a letter to the Telegraph arguing that leaving the EU would put at risk “our foremost position in research and innovation”. |
| You should also know: | You should also know: |
| Poll position | Poll position |
| Approach polls with caution and a sceptical eyebrow, of course, especially given the 2015 general election non-triumph. But, caveats in hand, an ORB poll for the Daily Telegraph today shows a narrowing of Remain’s lead over Leave, with the in-crowd slipping four points to 51% and the out-ers up four to 46%. | Approach polls with caution and a sceptical eyebrow, of course, especially given the 2015 general election non-triumph. But, caveats in hand, an ORB poll for the Daily Telegraph today shows a narrowing of Remain’s lead over Leave, with the in-crowd slipping four points to 51% and the out-ers up four to 46%. |
| All of which leads Number Cruncher politics to put the chances of a Brexit vote at 19%: | All of which leads Number Cruncher politics to put the chances of a Brexit vote at 19%: |
| Forecast and % probability:REMAIN 56 (=)LEAVE 44 (=)REMAIN WIN 81 (=)LEAVE WIN 19 (=)https://t.co/rhRhKe4Rtd pic.twitter.com/Mh3S6fXQKo | Forecast and % probability:REMAIN 56 (=)LEAVE 44 (=)REMAIN WIN 81 (=)LEAVE WIN 19 (=)https://t.co/rhRhKe4Rtd pic.twitter.com/Mh3S6fXQKo |
| Diary | Diary |
| Talking point | Talking point |
| Broadcaster Jon Snow has labelled the referendum campaign “abusive” and “boring” in an article in which he compared the current debate unfavourably with the “coherent and comprehensible” Scottish independence campaign in 2014. Snow was critical of media coverage while pointing out that politicians had not given journalists much to work with: | Broadcaster Jon Snow has labelled the referendum campaign “abusive” and “boring” in an article in which he compared the current debate unfavourably with the “coherent and comprehensible” Scottish independence campaign in 2014. Snow was critical of media coverage while pointing out that politicians had not given journalists much to work with: |
| With so few weeks to go before the vote, I believe that the negativity, the bickering, the foul-mouthing, and particularly the wholesale abuse of facts by both sides have seen off most of our attempts to make the vote interesting. | With so few weeks to go before the vote, I believe that the negativity, the bickering, the foul-mouthing, and particularly the wholesale abuse of facts by both sides have seen off most of our attempts to make the vote interesting. |
| Although those who can remember as far back as 2014 might not have such uncomplicated memories of the tone of Scotland’s referendum campaign and its media coverage … | Although those who can remember as far back as 2014 might not have such uncomplicated memories of the tone of Scotland’s referendum campaign and its media coverage … |
| Read these | Read these |
| Lynton Crosby, writing in the Telegraph, says the latest poll suggests that expectation of victory could be encouraging Remain voters into sluggishness: | Lynton Crosby, writing in the Telegraph, says the latest poll suggests that expectation of victory could be encouraging Remain voters into sluggishness: |
| The reality is that at this stage, the Leave and Remain campaigns have two different strategic imperatives. The challenge for the Remain campaign is to identify and motivate their voters to actually show up on June 23. Twice as many voters in this poll cite Leave as a risk as think remaining in the UK is a risk. This could continue to be the best way to motivate Remain voters to turn up. | The reality is that at this stage, the Leave and Remain campaigns have two different strategic imperatives. The challenge for the Remain campaign is to identify and motivate their voters to actually show up on June 23. Twice as many voters in this poll cite Leave as a risk as think remaining in the UK is a risk. This could continue to be the best way to motivate Remain voters to turn up. |
| The challenge for the Leave campaign is to persuade more voters of their position. Their existing voters are more motivated but they need more voters to be convinced that voting out offers something better. | The challenge for the Leave campaign is to persuade more voters of their position. Their existing voters are more motivated but they need more voters to be convinced that voting out offers something better. |
| Rachel Sylvester in the Times (paywall) says divisions in the campaign are about more than Europe: | Rachel Sylvester in the Times (paywall) says divisions in the campaign are about more than Europe: |
| Class, as well as age, will be a defining factor in the referendum. One of the few things the opinion polls agree on is that educated middle-class voters are far more likely to support remaining in the EU. According to YouGov, 70% of graduates back Remain and 62% of AB voters. In contrast Leave has the support of 63% of DE voters and 62% of those with qualifications up to GCSE level. | Class, as well as age, will be a defining factor in the referendum. One of the few things the opinion polls agree on is that educated middle-class voters are far more likely to support remaining in the EU. According to YouGov, 70% of graduates back Remain and 62% of AB voters. In contrast Leave has the support of 63% of DE voters and 62% of those with qualifications up to GCSE level. |
| The campaign has highlighted a profound culture clash between the world view of metropolitan liberals who are relaxed about immigration and those who are struggling to thrive in rural areas and seaside towns, threatened by the rapidly changing world. As a pro-Brexit MP puts it: ‘One side sees the others as bigots and the other side sees them as snobs.’ | The campaign has highlighted a profound culture clash between the world view of metropolitan liberals who are relaxed about immigration and those who are struggling to thrive in rural areas and seaside towns, threatened by the rapidly changing world. As a pro-Brexit MP puts it: ‘One side sees the others as bigots and the other side sees them as snobs.’ |
| In the Financial Times (paywall), Chris Giles and Jim Pickard report that hedge funds and investment banks have commissioned private exit polls: | In the Financial Times (paywall), Chris Giles and Jim Pickard report that hedge funds and investment banks have commissioned private exit polls: |
| By finding out the voting patterns early on June 23 and predicting the result, entrepreneurial traders can lay big bets on the result, hoping to be the first to benefit financially from a government-induced swing in sterling … | By finding out the voting patterns early on June 23 and predicting the result, entrepreneurial traders can lay big bets on the result, hoping to be the first to benefit financially from a government-induced swing in sterling … |
| Early indications of the likely result in the referendum will be indirectly visible from foreign exchange and sterling derivative markets before the polls close, if big money is bet on the result. | Early indications of the likely result in the referendum will be indirectly visible from foreign exchange and sterling derivative markets before the polls close, if big money is bet on the result. |
| Too much of the EU debate has been pragmatic and parochial, argues this Guardian editorial: | Too much of the EU debate has been pragmatic and parochial, argues this Guardian editorial: |
| The European Union is far from perfect. Yet even in its imperfection, it provides the conditions in which British education and British culture have shone as rarely before. Why else have so many artists and academics been so energised on behalf of Remain? From within the EU, Britain can both enjoy the strength derived from connections with its European neighbours and open itself up to the rest of the world. | The European Union is far from perfect. Yet even in its imperfection, it provides the conditions in which British education and British culture have shone as rarely before. Why else have so many artists and academics been so energised on behalf of Remain? From within the EU, Britain can both enjoy the strength derived from connections with its European neighbours and open itself up to the rest of the world. |
| Find all the Guardian coverage of the referendum campaign here. | Find all the Guardian coverage of the referendum campaign here. |
| Baffling claim of the day | Baffling claim of the day |
| Alan Sugar, writing in the Sun in favour of Remain, offers this tantalising – and completely unexplained – analogy: | Alan Sugar, writing in the Sun in favour of Remain, offers this tantalising – and completely unexplained – analogy: |
| So you might ask: why leave? The song There’s a Hole in my Bucket comes to mind here. | So you might ask: why leave? The song There’s a Hole in my Bucket comes to mind here. |
| Celebrity endorsement of the day | Celebrity endorsement of the day |
| A few contenders today. Stephen Hawking says the UK should stay in the EU – but he already showed his anti-Brexit workings back in March. The Leave campaign has been showing off Ian Botham and his worries about the UK becoming “cluttered” – but we knew that too. | A few contenders today. Stephen Hawking says the UK should stay in the EU – but he already showed his anti-Brexit workings back in March. The Leave campaign has been showing off Ian Botham and his worries about the UK becoming “cluttered” – but we knew that too. |
| So instead the honour goes to Paul McCartney, who told French newspaper Le Parisien that he’s … not sure: | So instead the honour goes to Paul McCartney, who told French newspaper Le Parisien that he’s … not sure: |
| It’s crazy in England at the moment! Everyone I talk to goes from one extreme to the other. I’m the same, I haven’t decided yet. | It’s crazy in England at the moment! Everyone I talk to goes from one extreme to the other. I’m the same, I haven’t decided yet. |
| The day in a tweet | The day in a tweet |
| EU referendum now part of my whatsapp convo with my besties. I've been waiting months for this moment pic.twitter.com/mIjp6dPPaL | EU referendum now part of my whatsapp convo with my besties. I've been waiting months for this moment pic.twitter.com/mIjp6dPPaL |
| If today were a romantic comedy ... | If today were a romantic comedy ... |
| It would be Friends With Benefits: unlikely partners cosy up to achieve a, ahem, shared goal. Or, as Peter Bradshaw reviewed it, “frantically unromantic and unfunny”. | It would be Friends With Benefits: unlikely partners cosy up to achieve a, ahem, shared goal. Or, as Peter Bradshaw reviewed it, “frantically unromantic and unfunny”. |
| NB: not those kinds of benefits. | NB: not those kinds of benefits. |