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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/may/31/eu-referendum-live-leave-johnson-gove-remain-business-poll
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| EU referendum live – Vote Leave backtracks on energy bills claim | EU referendum live – Vote Leave backtracks on energy bills claim |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 5.48pm BST | |
| 17:48 | |
| Nick Ryan, communications director for Hope Not Hate, has been in touch to say that, if there were protesters waiting for Nigel Farage, they were not from his organisation. For more on this, see the update at 4.34pm. | |
| 5.38pm BST | |
| 17:38 | |
| Khan hits back at Labour leadership, saying it is 'deeply concerning' voters don't know its EU stance | |
| Rowena Mason | |
| Sadiq Khan, the Labour mayor of London, has hit back at John McDonnell. A spokesman for him said: | |
| It should come as no surprise that Sadiq is campaigning with the prime minister for Britain to remain in the EU, as he made it crystal clear that he would do so throughout the mayoral election. | |
| It is deeply concerning that the polls today suggest that Labour voters are unsure where the Labour Party stands on the referendum. | |
| Sadiq won’t miss a single opportunity to make it absolutely clear to those voters where Labour stands on the referendum. | |
| Khan’s spokesman is referring to research featured in today’s Guardian splash. Here’s an excerpt. | |
| A campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe leaked to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit. | |
| The analysis, sent to some Labour MPs, found that focus groups in London, Brighton and Ipswich over the past few weeks showed voters were “uniformly uncertain” about whether Labour was campaigning to stay in the EU. They did not know what Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn thought or believed he was for remain but “his heart isn’t in it”. | |
| In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU. | |
| This is backed up by some YouGov polling published in today’s Red Box briefing from the Times. It shows that only a third of voters know that most Labour MPs favour remaining in the EU. Another third say they do not know where Labour MPs stand on this. This chart shows the responses when people were asked where Labour MPs stand on Europe. | |
| Even amongst people who voted Labour in 2015, less than half know that most Labour MPs want to stay in the EU. | |
| To be fair, surprisingly, the poll also found that a third of all voters don’t know where Tory MPs stand on the EU. | |
| Updated | |
| at 5.40pm BST | |
| 5.14pm BST | 5.14pm BST |
| 17:14 | 17:14 |
| Here is some reaction to the Guardian/ICM poll. | Here is some reaction to the Guardian/ICM poll. |
| From Matt Singh, who runs the NumbrCrunchrPolitics blog | From Matt Singh, who runs the NumbrCrunchrPolitics blog |
| This won't make happy reading for the Remain camp. But past experience with bank holiday weekends says "be cautious" https://t.co/AWRQrSfqGF | This won't make happy reading for the Remain camp. But past experience with bank holiday weekends says "be cautious" https://t.co/AWRQrSfqGF |
| From the Spectator’s James Forsyth | From the Spectator’s James Forsyth |
| This will put the cat among the pigeons, and add towards sense that something might have moved in the last few days https://t.co/ftQzzAh0hp | This will put the cat among the pigeons, and add towards sense that something might have moved in the last few days https://t.co/ftQzzAh0hp |
| Just 2 polls, 1 online / 1 phone, but Leave ahead with govt in purdah suggests EU ref could be closer than expected https://t.co/Xwz6QJqe06 | Just 2 polls, 1 online / 1 phone, but Leave ahead with govt in purdah suggests EU ref could be closer than expected https://t.co/Xwz6QJqe06 |
| From BuzzFeed’s James Ball | From BuzzFeed’s James Ball |
| This is odd: Guardian/ICM phone poll has swung 14pts in a month, while the online poll is unchanged. https://t.co/VTrAmXLXgz | This is odd: Guardian/ICM phone poll has swung 14pts in a month, while the online poll is unchanged. https://t.co/VTrAmXLXgz |
| From Matthew Goodwin, politics professor at the University of Kent | From Matthew Goodwin, politics professor at the University of Kent |
| Can't read into polls too much tho suspect latest net migration figures & Leave's push on immigration will be cited as contributory factors | Can't read into polls too much tho suspect latest net migration figures & Leave's push on immigration will be cited as contributory factors |
| From Will Jennings, political science professor at the University of Southampton | From Will Jennings, political science professor at the University of Southampton |
| Seismic shifts rarely occur in public opinion, and never on the basis of just a single poll. Why do I even bother?! https://t.co/8NVs1kyo4B | Seismic shifts rarely occur in public opinion, and never on the basis of just a single poll. Why do I even bother?! https://t.co/8NVs1kyo4B |
| Which is not to say public opinion isn't necessarily fluctuating, just a 14-point swing is a little less than likely... | Which is not to say public opinion isn't necessarily fluctuating, just a 14-point swing is a little less than likely... |
| From Philip Cowley, politics professor at Queen Mary, University of London | From Philip Cowley, politics professor at Queen Mary, University of London |
| Because everyone's focused on 23 June, few paying much attention to 'normal' opinion polls. They should be. | Because everyone's focused on 23 June, few paying much attention to 'normal' opinion polls. They should be. |
| Latest have Conservatives ahead by 4 (phone) or 5 points (online). That's one year into government, in the middle of a Tory Civil War. | Latest have Conservatives ahead by 4 (phone) or 5 points (online). That's one year into government, in the middle of a Tory Civil War. |
| 4.52pm BST | 4.52pm BST |
| 16:52 | 16:52 |
| Someone BTL was asking what Labour have been up to today on the EU referendum front. Well, Alan Johnson, chair of Labour In for Britain, has been in Barry in South Wales. | Someone BTL was asking what Labour have been up to today on the EU referendum front. Well, Alan Johnson, chair of Labour In for Britain, has been in Barry in South Wales. |
| It hasn’t been all hard work. | It hasn’t been all hard work. |
| 4.46pm BST | 4.46pm BST |
| 16:46 | 16:46 |
| Here’s Professor John Curtice, the leading psephologist, on today’s Guardian poll. | Here’s Professor John Curtice, the leading psephologist, on today’s Guardian poll. |
| Today's @ICMResearch #euref phone poll is the 3rd to put Leave ahead. Previous ones by @ORB_Int & @YouGov. https://t.co/nSDg1eTXuE | Today's @ICMResearch #euref phone poll is the 3rd to put Leave ahead. Previous ones by @ORB_Int & @YouGov. https://t.co/nSDg1eTXuE |
| Today's 2 @ICMResearch #euref polls move our Poll of Polls to Remain 51 (-2 on this am) Leave 49 (-2). 3/6 phone. https://t.co/juaJun47Yb | Today's 2 @ICMResearch #euref polls move our Poll of Polls to Remain 51 (-2 on this am) Leave 49 (-2). 3/6 phone. https://t.co/juaJun47Yb |
| 4.40pm BST | 4.40pm BST |
| 16:40 | 16:40 |
| Sterling falls after Guardian/ICM poll shows rise in support for Brexit | Sterling falls after Guardian/ICM poll shows rise in support for Brexit |
| The Guardian’s ICM poll has led to a small drop in the value of sterling against the dollar. | The Guardian’s ICM poll has led to a small drop in the value of sterling against the dollar. |
| This is from the Wall Street Journal’s Mike Bird. | This is from the Wall Street Journal’s Mike Bird. |
| Sterling Slumps as Phone Poll Shows Brexit Referendum Getting Tighter https://t.co/pLuFux3MrM pic.twitter.com/yfire9SGv6 | Sterling Slumps as Phone Poll Shows Brexit Referendum Getting Tighter https://t.co/pLuFux3MrM pic.twitter.com/yfire9SGv6 |
| And this is from Open Europe’s Raoul Ruparel. | And this is from Open Europe’s Raoul Ruparel. |
| Pound down q sharply against US Dollar on back of ICM phone poll showing lead for Leave (52-48) in #EUreferendum pic.twitter.com/din3IRA9n8 | Pound down q sharply against US Dollar on back of ICM phone poll showing lead for Leave (52-48) in #EUreferendum pic.twitter.com/din3IRA9n8 |
| 4.34pm BST | 4.34pm BST |
| 16:34 | 16:34 |
| Farage cancels visit to avoid protest | Farage cancels visit to avoid protest |
| Nigel Farage’s Grassroots Out bus was due to drive to Northampton for another campaign stop. However, as it headed there word came from waiting supporters that 50 or more protesters from the Hope Not Hate group, which has previously targeted Ukip, were also there. | Nigel Farage’s Grassroots Out bus was due to drive to Northampton for another campaign stop. However, as it headed there word came from waiting supporters that 50 or more protesters from the Hope Not Hate group, which has previously targeted Ukip, were also there. |
| Fearing potential trouble the Northampton stop has been postponed, with the bus group currently waiting at a pub outside the town. Farage said he was upset to not be able to go ahead with the stop. “This has never happened before, that I’ve had to cancel something.” | Fearing potential trouble the Northampton stop has been postponed, with the bus group currently waiting at a pub outside the town. Farage said he was upset to not be able to go ahead with the stop. “This has never happened before, that I’ve had to cancel something.” |
| Aides said the decision was made on police advice. | Aides said the decision was made on police advice. |
| A spokeswoman for Northamptonshire police denied that it had advised Farage’s team to cancel their visit. She said there was no sign of any Hope Not Hate protesters. “There’s a few people handing out leaflets to leave the EU, but that’s it,” she said. | A spokeswoman for Northamptonshire police denied that it had advised Farage’s team to cancel their visit. She said there was no sign of any Hope Not Hate protesters. “There’s a few people handing out leaflets to leave the EU, but that’s it,” she said. |
| Either way, Farage is now in another pub, chatting to a small group of supporters who have come to him. He was last seen posing for a photo with a large Union flag. | Either way, Farage is now in another pub, chatting to a small group of supporters who have come to him. He was last seen posing for a photo with a large Union flag. |
| Lesson from a day with Farage's Brexit camp: consumption of beer and cigarettes would put a 1970s newspaper office to shame. | Lesson from a day with Farage's Brexit camp: consumption of beer and cigarettes would put a 1970s newspaper office to shame. |
| UPDATE: Nick Ryan, communications director for Hope Not Hate, has been in touch to say that, if there were protesters waiting for Nigel Farage, they were not from his organisation. He went on: | |
| For the record Hope Not hate doesn’t “protest” or do counter-demonstrations: by far the largest part of our work is carried out by a charitable trust, which engages in research, reports, focusing on community cohesion, etc. | |
| We’re currently engaged in a mass voter registration campaign at the moment, with youth empowerment movement Bite The Ballot (please see turnup.org.uk) – this is about to launch a week of action tomorrow and all our teams are focused on this right now. | |
| We don’t view demonstrating as a particularly productive form of effecting change, hence the focus on running campaigns and research. | |
| We do have a smaller not-for-profit (non-charitable) arm, which engages directly in election campaigning during election periods and is registered with the Electoral Commission: again, this isn’t anything to do with demonstrations. (We are not taking sides in the EU Referendum with either In or Out, simply focusing on voter registration and getting out the vote.) | |
| Updated | |
| at 5.46pm BST | |
| 4.27pm BST | 4.27pm BST |
| 16:27 | 16:27 |
| How Vote Leave Tories backed increasing VAT on fuel to 17.5% | How Vote Leave Tories backed increasing VAT on fuel to 17.5% |
| Britain Stronger in Europe is accusing some senior Vote Leave Tories of “hypocrisy” over VAT on fuel because, while Vote Leave is now calling for the abolition of VAT on fuel, they voted in favour of VAT on fuel being increased to 17.5% in the 1990s. | Britain Stronger in Europe is accusing some senior Vote Leave Tories of “hypocrisy” over VAT on fuel because, while Vote Leave is now calling for the abolition of VAT on fuel, they voted in favour of VAT on fuel being increased to 17.5% in the 1990s. |
| Norman Lamont proposed this when he was chancellor. But when his successor Kenneth Clarke tried to implement this in December 1994, he was defeated by an alliance of Labour and Tory rebels, forcing him to respond with an emergency budget. | Norman Lamont proposed this when he was chancellor. But when his successor Kenneth Clarke tried to implement this in December 1994, he was defeated by an alliance of Labour and Tory rebels, forcing him to respond with an emergency budget. |
| Three prominent Vote Leave Tories, Iain Duncan Smith, John Whittingdale and Liam Fox, all voted for the 17.5% increase. Britain Stronger in Europe has even dug out a quote from Duncan Smith at the time saying: “If the opposition want to get rid of the uprating to 17.5% VAT on fuel, where will they find the extra money?” | Three prominent Vote Leave Tories, Iain Duncan Smith, John Whittingdale and Liam Fox, all voted for the 17.5% increase. Britain Stronger in Europe has even dug out a quote from Duncan Smith at the time saying: “If the opposition want to get rid of the uprating to 17.5% VAT on fuel, where will they find the extra money?” |
| In a press notice issued by Britain Stronger in Europe, the Labour MP Conor McGinn said: | In a press notice issued by Britain Stronger in Europe, the Labour MP Conor McGinn said: |
| This just goes to prove that the Leave campaigners are so desperate, they will say anything. They are badly mistaken if they think working people will fall for this sort of cynicism and hypocrisy. | This just goes to prove that the Leave campaigners are so desperate, they will say anything. They are badly mistaken if they think working people will fall for this sort of cynicism and hypocrisy. |
| But the point is not an especially strong one. It was Conservative government policy to raise VAT on fuel to 17.5%, and none of these three Tories was important enough to have any say in shaping the policy. Fox was a whip in 1994, and Whittingdale was a parliamentary private secretary, which means they would have had to resign if they wanted to vote against the government. Duncan Smith could have rebelled. He didn’t. But it was 12 years ago. | But the point is not an especially strong one. It was Conservative government policy to raise VAT on fuel to 17.5%, and none of these three Tories was important enough to have any say in shaping the policy. Fox was a whip in 1994, and Whittingdale was a parliamentary private secretary, which means they would have had to resign if they wanted to vote against the government. Duncan Smith could have rebelled. He didn’t. But it was 12 years ago. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.28pm BST | at 4.28pm BST |
| 4.01pm BST | 4.01pm BST |
| 16:01 | 16:01 |
| McDonnell says Khan sharing platform with Cameron discredited Labour | McDonnell says Khan sharing platform with Cameron discredited Labour |
| Yesterday Sadiq Khan, the Labour mayor of London, shared a platform with David Cameron at an event to make the case for staying in the EU. This was remarkable not just because Cameron used PMQs to launch very personal attacks on Khan during the mayoral election (accusing him of being sympathetic to Islamist extremists), but also because other Labour figures, like Jeremy Corbyn and Alan Johnson, have ruled out campaigning alongside Cameron. They remember all too well what happened in Scotland, where Labour campaigned with the Tories against independence in 2014 only to see its vote disintegrate at the general election. | Yesterday Sadiq Khan, the Labour mayor of London, shared a platform with David Cameron at an event to make the case for staying in the EU. This was remarkable not just because Cameron used PMQs to launch very personal attacks on Khan during the mayoral election (accusing him of being sympathetic to Islamist extremists), but also because other Labour figures, like Jeremy Corbyn and Alan Johnson, have ruled out campaigning alongside Cameron. They remember all too well what happened in Scotland, where Labour campaigned with the Tories against independence in 2014 only to see its vote disintegrate at the general election. |
| At a Labour In for Britain event in Wolverhampton last night, John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, accused Khan of discrediting Labour. According to PoliticsHome this is what he said when asked if Labour should campaign for Remain alongside Cameron. | At a Labour In for Britain event in Wolverhampton last night, John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, accused Khan of discrediting Labour. According to PoliticsHome this is what he said when asked if Labour should campaign for Remain alongside Cameron. |
| The Europe that the Tories want is not our Europe. Cameron went to negotiate away workers’ rights in advance of this referendum. If he could have done it, he would have done. | The Europe that the Tories want is not our Europe. Cameron went to negotiate away workers’ rights in advance of this referendum. If he could have done it, he would have done. |
| If Cameron and his crew are still in power after this referendum they will continue dismantling our welfare state. They will continue to cut benefits, undermine wages and cut public service jobs. This will go on. | If Cameron and his crew are still in power after this referendum they will continue dismantling our welfare state. They will continue to cut benefits, undermine wages and cut public service jobs. This will go on. |
| Sharing a platform with them discredits us. It demotivates the very people we are trying to mobilise. | Sharing a platform with them discredits us. It demotivates the very people we are trying to mobilise. |
| 3.38pm BST | 3.38pm BST |
| 15:38 | 15:38 |
| Guardian/ICM phone and online polls both show Leave ahead - with Leave support rising sharply on phone poll | Guardian/ICM phone and online polls both show Leave ahead - with Leave support rising sharply on phone poll |
| The Guardian has just published its latest ICM polling on the EU referendum. Both the online survey and the phone survey show Leave ahead, and the phone poll shows a sharp rise in support for Leave. | The Guardian has just published its latest ICM polling on the EU referendum. Both the online survey and the phone survey show Leave ahead, and the phone poll shows a sharp rise in support for Leave. |
| Here is Heather Stewart’s story. | Here is Heather Stewart’s story. |
| Related: UK voters leaning towards Brexit, Guardian poll reveals | Related: UK voters leaning towards Brexit, Guardian poll reveals |
| Here is the start of the story. | Here is the start of the story. |
| Public opinion has shifted towards the UK leaving the EU, two Guardian/ICM polls suggest as the referendum campaign picks up pace – with voters splitting 52-48 in favour of Brexit whether surveyed online or by phone. | Public opinion has shifted towards the UK leaving the EU, two Guardian/ICM polls suggest as the referendum campaign picks up pace – with voters splitting 52-48 in favour of Brexit whether surveyed online or by phone. |
| Previous polls have tended to show voters surveyed online to be more in favour of Britain leaving the EU. But in the latest ICM research, carried out for the Guardian, both methodologies yielded the same result – a majority in favour of leaving. | Previous polls have tended to show voters surveyed online to be more in favour of Britain leaving the EU. But in the latest ICM research, carried out for the Guardian, both methodologies yielded the same result – a majority in favour of leaving. |
| “Our poll rather unhinges a few accepted orthodoxies,” said ICM’s director, Martin Boon. “It is only one poll, but in a rather unexpected reverse of polling assumptions so far, both our phone poll and our online poll are consistent on both vote intentions and on the EU referendum.” | “Our poll rather unhinges a few accepted orthodoxies,” said ICM’s director, Martin Boon. “It is only one poll, but in a rather unexpected reverse of polling assumptions so far, both our phone poll and our online poll are consistent on both vote intentions and on the EU referendum.” |
| And here are the key figures | And here are the key figures |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.47pm BST | at 3.47pm BST |
| 3.33pm BST | 3.33pm BST |
| 15:33 | 15:33 |
| In the Q&A after his speech this morning Chris Grayling said Vote Leave had never said every penny saved by not being in the EU would go towards the NHS. (See 12.31pm.) Labour MP Emma Reynolds says this is very significant. In a press notice from Britain Stronger in Europe headed “Vote Leave’s NHS claim blown out of the water”, she says: | In the Q&A after his speech this morning Chris Grayling said Vote Leave had never said every penny saved by not being in the EU would go towards the NHS. (See 12.31pm.) Labour MP Emma Reynolds says this is very significant. In a press notice from Britain Stronger in Europe headed “Vote Leave’s NHS claim blown out of the water”, she says: |
| Chris Grayling has let the cat out of the bag. If these Tory Leave campaigners have their way and take us out of the EU, they won’t spend another penny on our National Health Service. You can’t trust Tories like Chris Grayling to protect the NHS and give it the investment it needs. | Chris Grayling has let the cat out of the bag. If these Tory Leave campaigners have their way and take us out of the EU, they won’t spend another penny on our National Health Service. You can’t trust Tories like Chris Grayling to protect the NHS and give it the investment it needs. |
| The truth is that leaving Europe would land us with less money, not more, to spend on the NHS. Economic experts say leaving would create a £40bn black hole in our public services – opening up our NHS to billions of pounds of damaging cuts. | The truth is that leaving Europe would land us with less money, not more, to spend on the NHS. Economic experts say leaving would create a £40bn black hole in our public services – opening up our NHS to billions of pounds of damaging cuts. |
| 3.20pm BST | 3.20pm BST |
| 15:20 | 15:20 |
| Farage says, if Remain win, UK might not get 2nd referendum until another country leaves EU | Farage says, if Remain win, UK might not get 2nd referendum until another country leaves EU |
| I’m spending the day on the semi-organised chaos of the Ukip-led unofficial Brexit campaign battlebus, currently between Birmingham and Northampton. Before a stop for the inevitable pub lunch I had a chat with Nigel Farage about his thoughts on the campaign and the possible aftermath of the 23 June vote. | I’m spending the day on the semi-organised chaos of the Ukip-led unofficial Brexit campaign battlebus, currently between Birmingham and Northampton. Before a stop for the inevitable pub lunch I had a chat with Nigel Farage about his thoughts on the campaign and the possible aftermath of the 23 June vote. |
| Farage said he does not believe a vote for Remain will end the EU argument permanently, predicting that growing anti-EU feeling in places like Italy could see another nation leave, reigniting the debate in the UK. | Farage said he does not believe a vote for Remain will end the EU argument permanently, predicting that growing anti-EU feeling in places like Italy could see another nation leave, reigniting the debate in the UK. |
| “The issue won’t go away,” he said. “I suspect that if Remain were to win narrowly then we’d wait for another country to get out first. And just look at the shift.” | “The issue won’t go away,” he said. “I suspect that if Remain were to win narrowly then we’d wait for another country to get out first. And just look at the shift.” |
| This would, however, take some time, Farage said: “If we lost, would there be a second referendum soon? There would be a chunk of the Conservative party that would be irreconcilable to the way the campaign had been fought. But is the British parliament going to give us another referendum? I don’t think so.” | This would, however, take some time, Farage said: “If we lost, would there be a second referendum soon? There would be a chunk of the Conservative party that would be irreconcilable to the way the campaign had been fought. But is the British parliament going to give us another referendum? I don’t think so.” |
| It would this take a vote to leave from another nation, he predicted: “I suspect somebody else would do it for us. But the arguments won’t go away because the EU is going to get worse.” | It would this take a vote to leave from another nation, he predicted: “I suspect somebody else would do it for us. But the arguments won’t go away because the EU is going to get worse.” |
| In less policy-based news Farage revealed he is currently on his first-ever mid-campaign diet, prompted by a regime of hotel breakfasts, pub lunches and evening curries. In a telling vignette, an aide had earlier struggled to find a bottle of water. “There’s Rioja,” he said. “And beer. The water must be somewhere.” | In less policy-based news Farage revealed he is currently on his first-ever mid-campaign diet, prompted by a regime of hotel breakfasts, pub lunches and evening curries. In a telling vignette, an aide had earlier struggled to find a bottle of water. “There’s Rioja,” he said. “And beer. The water must be somewhere.” |
| And Farage is even going to the open top deck of the bus for a cigarette when it is on the motorway. | And Farage is even going to the open top deck of the bus for a cigarette when it is on the motorway. |