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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/02/eu-referendum-live-cameron-and-corbyn-make-the-case-for-remain-separately
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| Version 19 | Version 20 |
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| EU referendum: Merkel says UK will lose out if it leaves EU - as it happened | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| 5.11pm BST | 5.11pm BST |
| 17:11 | 17:11 |
| Afternoon summary | Afternoon summary |
| That’s all from me for now. | That’s all from me for now. |
| Later I will be covering the Sky EU event with David Cameron. It combines an interview with a town hall-style Q&A. It starts at 8pm, but the blog will launch at around 7pm. You’ll find it here. | Later I will be covering the Sky EU event with David Cameron. It combines an interview with a town hall-style Q&A. It starts at 8pm, but the blog will launch at around 7pm. You’ll find it here. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 5.12pm BST | at 5.12pm BST |
| 5.09pm BST | 5.09pm BST |
| 17:09 | 17:09 |
| This is from Google Trends on the Corbyn speech. | This is from Google Trends on the Corbyn speech. |
| "Was the Jeremy Corbyn speech for the Leave campaign?" Top questions following @jeremycorbyn's #EUref speech pic.twitter.com/KYTqlKxyXW | "Was the Jeremy Corbyn speech for the Leave campaign?" Top questions following @jeremycorbyn's #EUref speech pic.twitter.com/KYTqlKxyXW |
| 5.08pm BST | 5.08pm BST |
| 17:08 | 17:08 |
| According to the Sun, there’s a leak at Vote Leave HQ. Water is reportedly pouring through the roof ... | According to the Sun, there’s a leak at Vote Leave HQ. Water is reportedly pouring through the roof ... |
| 4.52pm BST | 4.52pm BST |
| 16:52 | 16:52 |
| For an alternative view, try Economists for Brexit. They held a briefing this morning, attended by the Conservative MP David Davis and the Ukip leader Nigel Farage, among others, and they argue that mainstream economists who claim that Brexit will hurt the UK economy all assume the government would continue to impose tariffs on imports. | For an alternative view, try Economists for Brexit. They held a briefing this morning, attended by the Conservative MP David Davis and the Ukip leader Nigel Farage, among others, and they argue that mainstream economists who claim that Brexit will hurt the UK economy all assume the government would continue to impose tariffs on imports. |
| In a press notice, Professor Patrick Minford, EfB’s co-chair, explained: | In a press notice, Professor Patrick Minford, EfB’s co-chair, explained: |
| In recent weeks there has been a relentless stream of output from modelling groups on the topic of Brexit - all of it negative. This has included long-term and short-term reports from not merely the Treasury but also CEP at LSE, PWC, Oxford Economics, the NIESR, the OECD and the IMF. The common element in the consensus outside EfB is that after Brexit, under the WTO option, the UK continues to maintain protectionist tariffs and other trade barriers against the rest of the world, including the EU. By contrast, EfB assumes unilateral free trade after leaving the EU. | In recent weeks there has been a relentless stream of output from modelling groups on the topic of Brexit - all of it negative. This has included long-term and short-term reports from not merely the Treasury but also CEP at LSE, PWC, Oxford Economics, the NIESR, the OECD and the IMF. The common element in the consensus outside EfB is that after Brexit, under the WTO option, the UK continues to maintain protectionist tariffs and other trade barriers against the rest of the world, including the EU. By contrast, EfB assumes unilateral free trade after leaving the EU. |
| What has emerged from considering all these approaches used by different modelling groups, is that they all assume post-Brexit, the pursuit of protectionist policies on imports by the UK. This reduction of the scope of free trade predictably would damage UK output and productivity whatever methodology is used. | What has emerged from considering all these approaches used by different modelling groups, is that they all assume post-Brexit, the pursuit of protectionist policies on imports by the UK. This reduction of the scope of free trade predictably would damage UK output and productivity whatever methodology is used. |
| The key difference in EfB is the use of the unilateral free trade assumption under which Brexit is a move towards free trade. This not only gives a long-term boost to output but also boosts the short-term outlook by the standard route of expectations; with suitable policies it can be generally popular and beneficial across all sectors. It also enables the UK to be strong in negotiations and take control of its own policy environment, independently of any actions by our EU neighbours. This in turn closes down short-term ‘policy uncertainty’, avoiding the ad hoc rises in credit and other financial costs. Thus the consensus has, in short, misrepresented the post-Brexit potential outlook quite seriously to UK voters in this referendum. It is the intention of EfB to bring this clearly to these voters’ attention. | The key difference in EfB is the use of the unilateral free trade assumption under which Brexit is a move towards free trade. This not only gives a long-term boost to output but also boosts the short-term outlook by the standard route of expectations; with suitable policies it can be generally popular and beneficial across all sectors. It also enables the UK to be strong in negotiations and take control of its own policy environment, independently of any actions by our EU neighbours. This in turn closes down short-term ‘policy uncertainty’, avoiding the ad hoc rises in credit and other financial costs. Thus the consensus has, in short, misrepresented the post-Brexit potential outlook quite seriously to UK voters in this referendum. It is the intention of EfB to bring this clearly to these voters’ attention. |
| 4.41pm BST | 4.41pm BST |
| 16:41 | 16:41 |
| The LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance has published a report looking at how the costs of Brexit would be distributed across income groups (pdf). | The LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance has published a report looking at how the costs of Brexit would be distributed across income groups (pdf). |
| It argues that all households would lose out, because prices would rise, but that the pain would be spread relatively evenly. | It argues that all households would lose out, because prices would rise, but that the pain would be spread relatively evenly. |
| Here’s an extract. | Here’s an extract. |
| Looking solely at the ‘static’ short-run impact of trade, the income (not GDP) of the average UK household would drop by 1.8% (£754) per year in our most ‘optimistic’ scenario where the UK joins countries like Norway in the European Economic Area. Income would fall by 4% per year (£1,637) if the UK were to trade under World Trade Organization rules (in our more realistic ‘pessimistic’ scenario). If we take account of the longer-run dynamic effects of Brexit on productivity, the average household would lose between 6.1% and 13.5% of their real incomes per year (£2,519 to £5,573). | Looking solely at the ‘static’ short-run impact of trade, the income (not GDP) of the average UK household would drop by 1.8% (£754) per year in our most ‘optimistic’ scenario where the UK joins countries like Norway in the European Economic Area. Income would fall by 4% per year (£1,637) if the UK were to trade under World Trade Organization rules (in our more realistic ‘pessimistic’ scenario). If we take account of the longer-run dynamic effects of Brexit on productivity, the average household would lose between 6.1% and 13.5% of their real incomes per year (£2,519 to £5,573). |
| For the poorest tenth of households (the bottom decile), real income losses would be 1.7% to 3.6% in the short run and 5.7% to 12.5% in the long run. For the richest households, the short-run losses would be 1.8% to 3.9% and the long-run losses 6% to 13.4%. These are only very slightly smaller than the losses suffered by the middle classes. | For the poorest tenth of households (the bottom decile), real income losses would be 1.7% to 3.6% in the short run and 5.7% to 12.5% in the long run. For the richest households, the short-run losses would be 1.8% to 3.9% and the long-run losses 6% to 13.4%. These are only very slightly smaller than the losses suffered by the middle classes. |
| And here is one of the charts. | And here is one of the charts. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.14pm BST | at 6.14pm BST |
| 4.23pm BST | 4.23pm BST |
| 16:23 | 16:23 |
| This is interesting. It’s from today’s FT. | This is interesting. It’s from today’s FT. |
| Today's uncontrollable shuddering about the European referendum is brought to you by the FT. pic.twitter.com/kcxgI9kli0 | Today's uncontrollable shuddering about the European referendum is brought to you by the FT. pic.twitter.com/kcxgI9kli0 |
| 4.13pm BST | 4.13pm BST |
| 16:13 | 16:13 |
| Here is the Guardian’s Politics Weekly podcast, with Rowena Mason, Gary Younge, Jon Henley and Rafael Behr discussing the EU referendum campaign and the Vice News fly-on-the-wall documentary about Jeremy Corbyn. | Here is the Guardian’s Politics Weekly podcast, with Rowena Mason, Gary Younge, Jon Henley and Rafael Behr discussing the EU referendum campaign and the Vice News fly-on-the-wall documentary about Jeremy Corbyn. |
| Related: Brexit's poll lead, Corbyn's Vice film, French strikes – Politics Weekly podcast | Related: Brexit's poll lead, Corbyn's Vice film, French strikes – Politics Weekly podcast |
| 4.09pm BST | 4.09pm BST |
| 16:09 | 16:09 |
| Rowena Mason | Rowena Mason |
| Here is my colleague Rowena Mason’s story about the Electoral Commission admitting the some non-British EU nationals have wrongly been sent EU referendum ballot papers. | Here is my colleague Rowena Mason’s story about the Electoral Commission admitting the some non-British EU nationals have wrongly been sent EU referendum ballot papers. |
| Related: Referendum voting papers sent to some EU nationals by mistake | Related: Referendum voting papers sent to some EU nationals by mistake |
| And here is how it starts. | And here is how it starts. |
| Some EU nationals have been wrongly sent postal votes and polling cards for the UK’s referendum because of a “systems issue”, the Electoral Commission has said. | Some EU nationals have been wrongly sent postal votes and polling cards for the UK’s referendum because of a “systems issue”, the Electoral Commission has said. |
| The mistake means a number of EU nationals will have their votes cancelled and receive letters explaining they are not eligible to take part in the 23 June poll after all. | The mistake means a number of EU nationals will have their votes cancelled and receive letters explaining they are not eligible to take part in the 23 June poll after all. |
| It is not yet known how many people are affected by the problem, but a spokesman for the Electoral Commission said they had only found a “handful” at this point. | It is not yet known how many people are affected by the problem, but a spokesman for the Electoral Commission said they had only found a “handful” at this point. |
| 3.34pm BST | 3.34pm BST |
| 15:34 | 15:34 |
| Britain Stronger in Europe has put out this statement from Sir Nigel Sheinwald, a former ambassador to the US and a former permanent representative to the EU, welcoming Angela Merkel’s comment about how Britain would lose out if it left the EU. He said: | Britain Stronger in Europe has put out this statement from Sir Nigel Sheinwald, a former ambassador to the US and a former permanent representative to the EU, welcoming Angela Merkel’s comment about how Britain would lose out if it left the EU. He said: |
| Yet another major ally has said that Britain is stronger, safer and better off in Europe. | Yet another major ally has said that Britain is stronger, safer and better off in Europe. |
| Leave campaigners have repeatedly cited Germany as evidence of how easy it would be to renegotiate a trade deal with the EU, but this strikes a hammer blow to that argument. | Leave campaigners have repeatedly cited Germany as evidence of how easy it would be to renegotiate a trade deal with the EU, but this strikes a hammer blow to that argument. |
| 3.27pm BST | 3.27pm BST |
| 15:27 | 15:27 |
| Ben Quinn | Ben Quinn |
| Bob Geldof has featured in a video campaign launched by a pro-remain group seeking to mobilise the support of close to half a million Irish people entitled to vote in the referendum on the UK’s EU membership. | Bob Geldof has featured in a video campaign launched by a pro-remain group seeking to mobilise the support of close to half a million Irish people entitled to vote in the referendum on the UK’s EU membership. |
| The Youtube video - which draws on the viral ‘Ring Your Granny’ campaign strategy which encouraged young Irish people to mobilise their relatives during Ireland’s marital equality referendum - features alternating ‘self shot’ clips by Irish people listing others who they will be lobbying to register by a 7 June deadline. | The Youtube video - which draws on the viral ‘Ring Your Granny’ campaign strategy which encouraged young Irish people to mobilise their relatives during Ireland’s marital equality referendum - features alternating ‘self shot’ clips by Irish people listing others who they will be lobbying to register by a 7 June deadline. |
| “My mate in Birmingham, my sister Patty up in the Wye Valley,” says Geldof. | “My mate in Birmingham, my sister Patty up in the Wye Valley,” says Geldof. |
| “Ted in Islington ... The kids in north, south and east London. Every Irish person ... Vote.” | “Ted in Islington ... The kids in north, south and east London. Every Irish person ... Vote.” |
| During the Scottish independence referendum campaign, the musician and campaigner made an emotional appeal at a rally in Trafalgar Square where he called on voters in Scotland not to break up the “family”. | During the Scottish independence referendum campaign, the musician and campaigner made an emotional appeal at a rally in Trafalgar Square where he called on voters in Scotland not to break up the “family”. |
| On this occasion, his intervention has been more muted. The video was organised by the Irish4Europe group, whose activists were involved in a visit last weekend to London by the Irish prime minister, Enda Kenny. | On this occasion, his intervention has been more muted. The video was organised by the Irish4Europe group, whose activists were involved in a visit last weekend to London by the Irish prime minister, Enda Kenny. |
| In 2002, Geldof backed the campaign to keep the pound and featured in an advert launched by campaigners against Britain joining the single currency. | In 2002, Geldof backed the campaign to keep the pound and featured in an advert launched by campaigners against Britain joining the single currency. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.46pm BST | at 3.46pm BST |