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EU referendum live: Major and Blair warn of Northern Ireland Brexit fate EU referendum live: Major and Blair warn of Northern Ireland Brexit fate
(35 minutes later)
2.01pm BST
14:01
No 10 says move to extend voter registration deadline cannot be challenged in court
Rajeev Syal
Downing Street has said that Leave.EU has no hope of challenging the decision to extend the voter registration deadline in the courts. (See 10.16am.) It also dismissed claims this was a way of helping Remain voters to register.
The prime minister’s spokeswoman said:
The government position is clear - that this is a legally watertight approach. This isn’t about how people may vote in the referendum. There is no way of knowing at registration how people intend to vote. This is about the government providing a service to enable people to exercise their democratic right. We had problems with that service we want to rectify and address it.
This is an important choice facing people and if they haven’t registered to vote, then we are making sure we deal with the service so that those who want to can.
1.56pm BST
13:56
British embassy in Ankara says it is working to help Turkey join the EU
In his interview with Andrew Neil last night, George Osborne, the chancellor, insisted that Turkey would not be joining the EU.
But Leave.EU points out that the British embassy in Ankara says on its website that it has a team working on “a wide range of issues including Turkey’s bid to join the European Union, the economy, energy policy and international security”.
Arron Banks, the Leave.EU co-founder, said:
Turkish accession poses huge risks to our finances, our public services and our national security. Cameron and Osborne still want it, but they know the public don’t and think they can get away with pretending it isn’t going to happen, even with government websites boasting that they have teams dedicated to speeding it the process.
1.49pm BST
13:49
Severin Carrell
Scottish voters may switch away from voting to remain in the EU because their support for remaining in is far weaker than the opinion polls suggest, the IPPR think tank and polling organisation Ipsos Mori has warned today.
Russell Gunson, director of IPPR Scotland, said focus groups in Edinburgh, Perth and Elgin found widespread ignorance, a lack of identification with Europe, dislike of “scaremongering” by both sides and anxiety about immigration amongst 10 negative factors influencing voters. He said:
It seems the EU referendum is more of a ‘tinman’ referendum in Scotland, lacking heart and lacking passion, especially compared to the independence referendum.
While the polls may show significant support for remain in Scotland, our research shows this support is potentially quite soft, and could therefore weaken between now and 23 June.
A host of Scottish opinion polls have given the remain camp a significant lead over leave, with one putting it at 50%, but the National Centre for Social Research found earlier this year Euroscepticism is at record levels in Scotland. It said 43% want EU powers reduced and 17% of Scots want to leave.
1.28pm BST1.28pm BST
13:2813:28
Shapps announces he is backing RemainShapps announces he is backing Remain
Grant Shapps, the Conservative former party co-chairman, has announced that he has decided to vote Remain. He explains why in a post on his website. Here’s an extract.Grant Shapps, the Conservative former party co-chairman, has announced that he has decided to vote Remain. He explains why in a post on his website. Here’s an extract.
Having agonised about my own decision long and hard, I have finally reached the conclusion that in the end the potential turmoil for business is really quite difficult to ignore. I think that the uncertainty about market assess for British companies and the potential that has to put jobs as risk, does just tip the balance in favour of remaining. I will therefore personally vote to remain.Having agonised about my own decision long and hard, I have finally reached the conclusion that in the end the potential turmoil for business is really quite difficult to ignore. I think that the uncertainty about market assess for British companies and the potential that has to put jobs as risk, does just tip the balance in favour of remaining. I will therefore personally vote to remain.
These arguments are very finely balanced, no one truly knows the impact that the referendum’s outcome will have. Speaking as a former Conservative party chairman, I take this opportunity to ask the party to recognise that whilst colleagues have widely differing views on this EU referendum, in the end we are all working to try to build a stronger country for everyone. This debate with all its necessary divisions, should therefore be kept in context because, whatever the outcome, we will need to continue to work closely together afterwards for the good of the nation.These arguments are very finely balanced, no one truly knows the impact that the referendum’s outcome will have. Speaking as a former Conservative party chairman, I take this opportunity to ask the party to recognise that whilst colleagues have widely differing views on this EU referendum, in the end we are all working to try to build a stronger country for everyone. This debate with all its necessary divisions, should therefore be kept in context because, whatever the outcome, we will need to continue to work closely together afterwards for the good of the nation.
1.22pm BST1.22pm BST
13:2213:22
1.21pm BST1.21pm BST
13:2113:21
Villiers says Brexit would not lead to border controls between Northern Ireland and RepublicVilliers says Brexit would not lead to border controls between Northern Ireland and Republic
Tony Blair said that leaving the EU would make it impossible to keep the common travel area between Ireland and Northern Ireland. (See 11.53am.)Tony Blair said that leaving the EU would make it impossible to keep the common travel area between Ireland and Northern Ireland. (See 11.53am.)
In a statement from Vote Leave, Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary, said she did not accept this.In a statement from Vote Leave, Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary, said she did not accept this.
Northern Ireland, like the rest of the UK, will flourish outside the EU. We can keep an open land border. The common travel area between the UK and Ireland has existed for nearly 100 years since the creation of the Irish state in the 1920s. It will continue if we vote to leave. There would be risks to manage but they are not significantly more serious than risks that are already managed effectively today through bilateral cooperation between the UK and Ireland.Northern Ireland, like the rest of the UK, will flourish outside the EU. We can keep an open land border. The common travel area between the UK and Ireland has existed for nearly 100 years since the creation of the Irish state in the 1920s. It will continue if we vote to leave. There would be risks to manage but they are not significantly more serious than risks that are already managed effectively today through bilateral cooperation between the UK and Ireland.
The idea that thousands of non-Irish EU citizens would suddenly start crossing the border is far-fetched. If we vote leave and change the rules on free movement for non-Irish EU citizens, then if they come to the UK across our land border without legal clearance to do so, they would not be able to work, or claim benefits, or rent a home, or open a bank account and could ultimately be deported. There are plenty of mechanisms we can use to control immigration and deal with risks around illegal migration which do not involve physical checks at our land border. The reality is that there has never been a genuinely ‘hard border’ enforced between the UK and Ireland and there would not be one if we leave.The idea that thousands of non-Irish EU citizens would suddenly start crossing the border is far-fetched. If we vote leave and change the rules on free movement for non-Irish EU citizens, then if they come to the UK across our land border without legal clearance to do so, they would not be able to work, or claim benefits, or rent a home, or open a bank account and could ultimately be deported. There are plenty of mechanisms we can use to control immigration and deal with risks around illegal migration which do not involve physical checks at our land border. The reality is that there has never been a genuinely ‘hard border’ enforced between the UK and Ireland and there would not be one if we leave.
1.04pm BST1.04pm BST
13:0413:04
Major and Blair for Remain - Snap verdictMajor and Blair for Remain - Snap verdict
Major and Blair for Remain - Snap verdict: Of all the Remain media events we’ve seen, that was probably one of the most effective. Sir John Major and Tony Blair may seem like figures from the distant past, but in 1997 around three quarters of the British electorate voted for parties led by either one or other of them. People generally like seeing political opponents come together and this was a more genuine cross-party excursion than David Cameron’s stunt with Harriet Harman, Tim Farron and Natalie Bennett because Major and Blair were genuinely complimentary about each other and communicated their message together. At the event on Monday Cameron hogged all the questions and, when it was over, could not get away fast enough from Harman et al. Major and Blair also adopted a relatively understated tone. They made strong points about the future of the UK, Britain’s relations with the Republic of Ireland post-Brexit, the Irish common travel area and about the economic impact of Brexit on the UK generally, but they did so with an air of enlightened, but slightly detached concern which made a pleasant change from some of the more shrill scaremongering we’ve heard. Perhaps Major and Blair are so tarnished by the ERM and Iraq respectively that no one takes any notice (although seeing Blair in Northern Ireland is a reminder that the “warmonger” narrative omits a big part of the story of his premiership), but it is likely that they still have some persuasive clout.Major and Blair for Remain - Snap verdict: Of all the Remain media events we’ve seen, that was probably one of the most effective. Sir John Major and Tony Blair may seem like figures from the distant past, but in 1997 around three quarters of the British electorate voted for parties led by either one or other of them. People generally like seeing political opponents come together and this was a more genuine cross-party excursion than David Cameron’s stunt with Harriet Harman, Tim Farron and Natalie Bennett because Major and Blair were genuinely complimentary about each other and communicated their message together. At the event on Monday Cameron hogged all the questions and, when it was over, could not get away fast enough from Harman et al. Major and Blair also adopted a relatively understated tone. They made strong points about the future of the UK, Britain’s relations with the Republic of Ireland post-Brexit, the Irish common travel area and about the economic impact of Brexit on the UK generally, but they did so with an air of enlightened, but slightly detached concern which made a pleasant change from some of the more shrill scaremongering we’ve heard. Perhaps Major and Blair are so tarnished by the ERM and Iraq respectively that no one takes any notice (although seeing Blair in Northern Ireland is a reminder that the “warmonger” narrative omits a big part of the story of his premiership), but it is likely that they still have some persuasive clout.
UpdatedUpdated
at 1.06pm BSTat 1.06pm BST
12.18pm BST12.18pm BST
12:1812:18
Blair says they need to wind up soon.Blair says they need to wind up soon.
Around the world people are coming together, he says.Around the world people are coming together, he says.
For the UK to break apart from a set of relationship that has grown up over four decades, is not just wrong; it “goes against the grain of the future”, he says.For the UK to break apart from a set of relationship that has grown up over four decades, is not just wrong; it “goes against the grain of the future”, he says.
It is not just a case about now, says Blair. It is about how we manage the future too.It is not just a case about now, says Blair. It is about how we manage the future too.
Leaving the EU is “about the worst thing we could do to prepare ourselves for that future properly”, he says.Leaving the EU is “about the worst thing we could do to prepare ourselves for that future properly”, he says.
12.14pm BST12.14pm BST
12:1412:14
Q: We will soon be leaving schools. How will students benefit from leaving, and what are the dangers of leaving?Q: We will soon be leaving schools. How will students benefit from leaving, and what are the dangers of leaving?
Major says the questioner will want a productive job. He may want to look after himself and his family. People think of prosperity as an abstract thing. But if you have ever been in the position of not being able to pay a bill at the end of the week, you know that is not abstract.Major says the questioner will want a productive job. He may want to look after himself and his family. People think of prosperity as an abstract thing. But if you have ever been in the position of not being able to pay a bill at the end of the week, you know that is not abstract.
I promise you, that never, ever leaves you.I promise you, that never, ever leaves you.
Major says we are simply going to be better off by staying in.Major says we are simply going to be better off by staying in.
12.12pm BST12.12pm BST
12:1212:12
Q: Remain say the economy of Northern Ireland will suffer if we leave. But wages are already low in Northern Ireland. How will it be worse?Q: Remain say the economy of Northern Ireland will suffer if we leave. But wages are already low in Northern Ireland. How will it be worse?
Blair says there are many challenges for Northern Ireland. Governments have to do what they can to change that. But, if the UK leaves the EU, those problems become worse. It would be harder for Northern Ireland to attract investment.Blair says there are many challenges for Northern Ireland. Governments have to do what they can to change that. But, if the UK leaves the EU, those problems become worse. It would be harder for Northern Ireland to attract investment.
If the government then wanted to retain access to the single market, it would have to allow free movement, like Norway. And the UK would have to contribute to the EU too. He says Norway’s per capita contribution is about the same as the UK’s.If the government then wanted to retain access to the single market, it would have to allow free movement, like Norway. And the UK would have to contribute to the EU too. He says Norway’s per capita contribution is about the same as the UK’s.
He says remaining is not a solution to all these problems. But leaving will make the problems worse.He says remaining is not a solution to all these problems. But leaving will make the problems worse.
12.07pm BST12.07pm BST
12:0712:07
Q: The EU has invested significantly in Northern Ireland. Would a UK government continue with that level of funding?Q: The EU has invested significantly in Northern Ireland. Would a UK government continue with that level of funding?
Major says he and Blair have just visited the Peace Bridge.Major says he and Blair have just visited the Peace Bridge.
He says investors invest in the UK because they want access to the EU market.He says investors invest in the UK because they want access to the EU market.
If the UK left the EU, it is “overwhelmingly likely” that investment into the UK would be much smaller.If the UK left the EU, it is “overwhelmingly likely” that investment into the UK would be much smaller.
12.04pm BST
12:04
Q: Peter Mandelson said last week Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary, was irresponsible for backing Leave. Do you agree?
Blair says people are entitled to their views.
But anyone backing Leave has to answer questions such as the one about the common travel area.
Blair says Major is from a working class background and became a Conservative prime minister. He says he is from a middle class background and became a Labour prime minister.
He says his father grew up in the shadow of war. It is important to remember what the EU achieved, he says.
He says Europe stands for social protection. The Leave campaigner do not want this, he says.
He says it is “irresponsible” to back leaving without being able to answer basic questions.
Blair says he went to work as a barman in Paris shortly after the UK joined the EU. He says we should not give up the freedom to travel around Europe lightly.
12.01pm BST
12:01
Major and Blair's Q&A
Major and Blair are now taking questions.
Blair starts by saying he was a bit worried when the moderator said they would be facing their toughest audience. “That would be quite a high bar in my case,” he says.
Q: What reasons are there for working class people to stay in the EU?
Major says he is working class. He comes from Brixton. He was brought up in a two-bedroom house. It was a mixed community. He is not elite. People say Europe is just for elites, but that is “nonsense”. When the UK joined the EU, it was described as the sick man of Europe. Since then it has got much richer. It is projected to become the richest country in Europe.
He says when he was young, for a holiday people went to Brighton. Now young people can go around Europe without visas.
He says he objects strongly to the Leave campaign saying the EU is just for elites.
He says he and Blair are not going to be here in future. This is about young people. “Don’t go back to what our past was,” he says.
12.00pm BST
12:00
Updated
at 12.01pm BST
11.56am BST
11:56
Blair says the relationship with Ireland is better and stronger than ever before.
He was the first prime minister to address the Irish parliament, he says.
He says the EU, for all its faults, represents an enormous coming together of people.
The spirit that brought people together in Northern Ireland is one we need as we make this decision, he says.
11.54am BST
11:54
Blair says the Leave campaign have ignored the impact of Leave on the UK.
That is because their ideological preoccupation with leaving is more important to them than the consequences of leaving.
You should always distrust people who put ideology ahead of national interest, he says.
11.53am BST
11:53
Blair says if UK leaves EU, it would be impossible to keep common travel area with Ireland
Blair says people in the Leave camp are not interested in discussing the problems that might occur if the UK leaves the EU.
The common travel area between the Republic and Northern Ireland is a good example.
It started in the 1920s.
The UK and the Republic joined the EU at the same time. So the common travel area could continue.
If the UK leaves, what happens to it, he asks.
He says Leave say it will just stay.
But that would be difficult, or impossible.
He says it would be impossible to keep it because otherwise EU citizens could just to Ireland and cross into the UK.
You would have to have border checks, he says.
The problems of that would be “immense”.
But the only alternative would be border checks between Northern Ireland and the mainland, which would be unacceptable.
He says Brexit would put the union at risk. And it would put Northern Ireland at risk.
11.48am BST
11:48
Tony Blair is speaking now.
He says it is a real pleasure to be with Sir John Major. Whatever their differences, he has always had the highest respect for Major. He is someone who has always had the interests of Britain and Northern Ireland at heart.
He says many in the audience are too young to remember this. But in the 1980s in Northern Ireland people lived in constant fear. Bringing about peace was not easy, but it was a vast cooperative effort. Major played an essential part, he says.
It involved people putting aside enmities and coming together.
It was painstaking, he says.
He says the Good Friday agreement also involved a new relationship between the UK and the Republic within the EU. They could come together in part because they were both members of the EU.
He says these things took a long time to put together. It is foolish to put them at risk, he says.
11.43am BST
11:43
Major says Brexit would have “wholly negative effect” on UK relations with Ireland
Major turns to Northern Ireland.
He says he and Blair know how carefully the peace process was put together.
He says both men know about the stops and starts, and the compromises, involved in building a peace that will endure.
He says no problem took up more of his time as prime minister.
However routine the troubles were, he was convinced that it would be possible to bring peace to Northern Ireland, he says.
People were sick of the violence, he says.
He says it is extraordinary to come to Northern Ireland and see a successful power-sharing agreement. Thirty years ago, that would have seemed impossible.
He says Brexit would put this at risk. It would “put all the pieces of the constitutional jigsaw up in the air again, and no one could be certain where they would land”.
He says he accepts that relations between the UK and Ireland will prove cordial, whatever happens.
But if the UK leaves the EU, Ireland would be on the other side of the table. That would have a “wholly negative effect” on relations with Ireland.
Major says it is not a coincidence that every living former prime minister, as well as the current one, thinks the UK should stay in the EU.
They have all seen how EU membership increases British influence, he says.
He says people should fight for the UK’s interests in Europe. That is the right choice for our country, he says.
11.37am BST
11:37
Major says the Scottish independence referendum should have settled that matter for a generation.
But, if Scotland votes to stay in the EU while the UK as a whole votes to leave, there is a “serious risk” of a second independence referendum.
Pressure for a second vote could prove irresistible, he says.
And he says, the next time, it is likely Scotland would vote to leave the UK.
So England would be out of the EU, and the UK would have broken up.
The “most successful union in world history” could be broken up for good, he says.
11.35am BST
11:35
Major says 'the unity of the UK” is on the ballot paper
Sir John Major goes first.
He says staying in the EU is good for Britain. But today he wants to focus on one argument in particular, he says.
He says the UK is a union of four countries.
He says without a shadow of doubt that the wrong outcome will put the union in doubt.
The unity of the UK is on the ballot paper, he says.