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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/09/eu-referendum-live-wollaston-remain-vote-leave-sturgeon-johnson

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EU referendum live: Wollaston accuses Vote Leave of 'post-truth politics' EU referendum live: Wollaston accuses Vote Leave of 'post-truth politics'
(35 minutes later)
11.00am BST
11:00
Bill Clinton says leaving the EU could put peace in Northern Ireland at risk
Earlier Claire mentioned the fact that Bill Clinton, the former US president, has urged Britain to stay in the EU. His short New Statesman article where he makes this declaration is now available here, on the magazine’s website.
Here’s an excerpt.
In a tumultuous world, marked by slow growth, excessive inequality, massive refugee flows, and sectarian violence, it’s tempting to believe we can reduce our exposure and increase our personal and economic security by turning inward and keeping the world’s problems out. We’d all like to have the benefits of global interdependence without the burdens. However, because there are disruptive forces we cannot escape, co-operation and collective action are much more likely than withdrawal and isolation to produce prosperity and security. For a nation as large, diverse, and successful as the UK, there is no escape from the growing pains and contradictions of the 21st century world.
It is also important not to minimise the benefits of EU membership to the UK. For example, I was honoured to support the peace process in Northern Ireland. It has benefited from the UK’s membership in the European Union, and I worry that the future prosperity and peace of Northern Ireland could be jeopardised if Britain withdraws.
10.41am BST
10:41
More than 19,000 jobs are supported by EU university research funding which pumps £1.8bn into the UK economy, a study by Universities UK says. The Press Association has more details.
The study by Universities UK said British educational institutions attracted £838m in grants from EU sources in 2014-15.
The report found that UK universities do disproportionately well in gaining EU money.
The analysis showed that in the university sector, EU grants supported 8,864 direct jobs and £836m in economic output, and contributed nearly £577m to GDP.
EU research funding to UK universities generated more than 10,190 full-time equivalent jobs in industries outside the education sector, £1.02bn of economic output and a contribution of nearly £503m to GDP, the report said.
Industries benefiting most from the grants were business activities, with more than 2,604 full-time equivalent jobs; the wholesale and retail trade, with more than 2,048 full-time equivalent jobs; and manufacturing, with over 1,259 full-time equivalent jobs.
10.35am BST10.35am BST
10:3510:35
Jessica ElgotJessica Elgot
At the Labour event Sadiq Khan, the London mayor, spoke about his fares announcement yesterday that led to claims he had broken his promise to freeze fares. Khan insisted this was not true.At the Labour event Sadiq Khan, the London mayor, spoke about his fares announcement yesterday that led to claims he had broken his promise to freeze fares. Khan insisted this was not true.
I was quite clear my promise to London is to freeze fares over the next four years. 96% of passenger journeys in London will have their fares frozen, and it will mean 11m passengers benefiting from what I set out yesterday.I was quite clear my promise to London is to freeze fares over the next four years. 96% of passenger journeys in London will have their fares frozen, and it will mean 11m passengers benefiting from what I set out yesterday.
Asked about the “not a penny more for their travel” line in the manifesto, Khan went on:Asked about the “not a penny more for their travel” line in the manifesto, Khan went on:
I think to be fair if you read the line before, I was quite clear it is TfL fares. Promise made, promise delivered. I have frozen TfL fares. Now I need to do one of two things: persuade the government to give me the power to run TfL trains. If I ran those trains I’d freeze those fares as well. Or the government should say to the private operating companies, do what the mayor’s doing and freeze those fares as well.I think to be fair if you read the line before, I was quite clear it is TfL fares. Promise made, promise delivered. I have frozen TfL fares. Now I need to do one of two things: persuade the government to give me the power to run TfL trains. If I ran those trains I’d freeze those fares as well. Or the government should say to the private operating companies, do what the mayor’s doing and freeze those fares as well.
I can do a better job than [the train companies] are doing ... If I can make TfL waste efficient and cut fares in four weeks, why can’t they make the TOCs [train operating companies] do the same?I can do a better job than [the train companies] are doing ... If I can make TfL waste efficient and cut fares in four weeks, why can’t they make the TOCs [train operating companies] do the same?
10.16am BST10.16am BST
10:1610:16
Banks threatens to challenge voter registrations extension in court - but expert says his case 'hopeless'Banks threatens to challenge voter registrations extension in court - but expert says his case 'hopeless'
Arron Banks, the co-founder of Leave.EU, put out a statement this morning saying he was thinking of taking legal action to try to stop the government extending the deadline for voter registration. He suggested this could involve challenging the result of the referendum after 23 June. He said:Arron Banks, the co-founder of Leave.EU, put out a statement this morning saying he was thinking of taking legal action to try to stop the government extending the deadline for voter registration. He suggested this could involve challenging the result of the referendum after 23 June. He said:
For the government to alter election law during an election period is absolutely unprecedented and unconstitutional. This isn’t some democratic initiative, it’s a desperate attempt by the establishment to register as many likely Remain voters as possible before polling day. Terrific efforts have been made to target young people, thought to be more sympathetic to the EU, while older voters who backed Remain in 1975 but have grown heartily sick of the bloc after forty years of broken promises were given a body swerve.For the government to alter election law during an election period is absolutely unprecedented and unconstitutional. This isn’t some democratic initiative, it’s a desperate attempt by the establishment to register as many likely Remain voters as possible before polling day. Terrific efforts have been made to target young people, thought to be more sympathetic to the EU, while older voters who backed Remain in 1975 but have grown heartily sick of the bloc after forty years of broken promises were given a body swerve.
This follows hot on the heels of the Electoral Commission issuing thousands of ballots to EU nationals with no right to vote in the referendum, turning a blind eye the councils issuing postal voting guidance suggesting that voters put their cross in the box for Remain and doing nothing about Cameron spending over £9m on propaganda leaflets, in blatant violation of its own guidelines and of the Council of Europe’s code of good practice on referendums, too. There are now serious questions hanging over this organisation, which had already lost much public confidence following allegations of corruption during elections in Oldham and Tower Hamlets.This follows hot on the heels of the Electoral Commission issuing thousands of ballots to EU nationals with no right to vote in the referendum, turning a blind eye the councils issuing postal voting guidance suggesting that voters put their cross in the box for Remain and doing nothing about Cameron spending over £9m on propaganda leaflets, in blatant violation of its own guidelines and of the Council of Europe’s code of good practice on referendums, too. There are now serious questions hanging over this organisation, which had already lost much public confidence following allegations of corruption during elections in Oldham and Tower Hamlets.
Taken together, we believe that the above constitutes a clear attempt to rig the referendum or, at a bare minimum, to load the dice. We believe It is unconstitutional at best and have been advised that with legitimate cause we could challenge this extension. We are therefore considering all available legal options with our legal team, with a view to potentially launching a judicial review now and after the outcome of the referendum on 23rd June.Taken together, we believe that the above constitutes a clear attempt to rig the referendum or, at a bare minimum, to load the dice. We believe It is unconstitutional at best and have been advised that with legitimate cause we could challenge this extension. We are therefore considering all available legal options with our legal team, with a view to potentially launching a judicial review now and after the outcome of the referendum on 23rd June.
Readers with good memories will remember that Banks also threatened to go to court to challenge the Electoral Commission’s decision to make Vote Leave the lead out campaign, not Grassroots Out, which includes Leave.EU. That came to nothing after Banks had second thoughts and dropped the idea.Readers with good memories will remember that Banks also threatened to go to court to challenge the Electoral Commission’s decision to make Vote Leave the lead out campaign, not Grassroots Out, which includes Leave.EU. That came to nothing after Banks had second thoughts and dropped the idea.
Carl Garnder, the legal blogger and former government lawyer, has tweeted at length about this. He says Banks’s legal case is “hopeless”.Carl Garnder, the legal blogger and former government lawyer, has tweeted at length about this. He says Banks’s legal case is “hopeless”.
To be fair Aaron Banks has now explained why he says extending the deadline is unlawful. The trouble is, it's a very weak legal argument.To be fair Aaron Banks has now explained why he says extending the deadline is unlawful. The trouble is, it's a very weak legal argument.
All Banks says it's that it's "unprecedented" and "unconstitutional". He's relying on a misunderstanding of the legal concept of precedent.All Banks says it's that it's "unprecedented" and "unconstitutional". He's relying on a misunderstanding of the legal concept of precedent.
Precedent does not mean (as many non lawyers think) that something's lawful if it's been done before, and unlawful if hasn't.Precedent does not mean (as many non lawyers think) that something's lawful if it's been done before, and unlawful if hasn't.
The doctrine of precedent is purely about the extent to which a legal ruling in a court case in the past governs what a court must do today.The doctrine of precedent is purely about the extent to which a legal ruling in a court case in the past governs what a court must do today.
So the fact that extending the deadline mid-campaign may be "unprecedented" is legally irrelevant. This is not a legal argument at all.So the fact that extending the deadline mid-campaign may be "unprecedented" is legally irrelevant. This is not a legal argument at all.
Arron legal nonsense, I'm tempted to say.Arron legal nonsense, I'm tempted to say.
As for the claim that it's "unconstitutional", well, we have no higher constitutional law. This is not a legal argument either.As for the claim that it's "unconstitutional", well, we have no higher constitutional law. This is not a legal argument either.
Banks may (helping him out here) be trying to say the referendum legislation can't be interpreted as permitting mid-campaign changes. But ..Banks may (helping him out here) be trying to say the referendum legislation can't be interpreted as permitting mid-campaign changes. But ..
.. the problem is, nothing in the wording of the legislation implies a "no mid-campaign changes" rule. Banks must ask judges to read it in... the problem is, nothing in the wording of the legislation implies a "no mid-campaign changes" rule. Banks must ask judges to read it in.
So if Banks tries this challenge (I doubt it) he'll be trying to persuade "unelected judges" to limit what Parliament did in 2015.So if Banks tries this challenge (I doubt it) he'll be trying to persuade "unelected judges" to limit what Parliament did in 2015.
A slightly ironic position for someone who (I imagine) thinks he's fighting for Parliament's sovereignty against "unelected judges".A slightly ironic position for someone who (I imagine) thinks he's fighting for Parliament's sovereignty against "unelected judges".
Hard to imagine judges reading the legislation as if Parliament thought "Ministers must have wide power to adapt electoral law to #EUref ..Hard to imagine judges reading the legislation as if Parliament thought "Ministers must have wide power to adapt electoral law to #EUref ..
.. but that power does not extend to solving a problem that arises mid-campaign that could stop people voting". I think it's hopeless... but that power does not extend to solving a problem that arises mid-campaign that could stop people voting". I think it's hopeless.
9.49am BST9.49am BST
09:4909:49
Khan says only Labour can win referendum for RemainKhan says only Labour can win referendum for Remain
Sadiq Khan, the new Labour mayor of London, has been speaking at a Labour event in the Shard this morning, with Alan Johnson, chair of Labour In for Britain, Harriet Harman, the former deputy leader, and Yvette Cooper, the former shadow home secretary.Sadiq Khan, the new Labour mayor of London, has been speaking at a Labour event in the Shard this morning, with Alan Johnson, chair of Labour In for Britain, Harriet Harman, the former deputy leader, and Yvette Cooper, the former shadow home secretary.
Khan said it was up to Labour to win the EU referendum for Remain.Khan said it was up to Labour to win the EU referendum for Remain.
Every day we see another example of why David Cameron and the Tories simply cannot win this referendum as they lose credibility with the public. They are simply too riven by division. It now falls to us, and it’s time for us to step up.Every day we see another example of why David Cameron and the Tories simply cannot win this referendum as they lose credibility with the public. They are simply too riven by division. It now falls to us, and it’s time for us to step up.
Jeremy, Harriet, Alan, Yvette, the whole shadow cabinet, and every Labour MP, Councillor, member and supporter in Britain - the responsibility is ours. We don’t want to look back in two weeks’ time and think - did we do enough?Jeremy, Harriet, Alan, Yvette, the whole shadow cabinet, and every Labour MP, Councillor, member and supporter in Britain - the responsibility is ours. We don’t want to look back in two weeks’ time and think - did we do enough?
And Johnson said the Tories were making the contest look like “a bunfight in the Eton tea room”.And Johnson said the Tories were making the contest look like “a bunfight in the Eton tea room”.
With David Cameron and Boris Johnson trading blows in this campaign it sometimes resembles a bunfight in the Eton tea room. This debate is not about who is to lead the Conservative Party, it’s about the kind of country we want Britain to be: engaged with our continent or isolated on the periphery; erecting barriers or building bridges; a great trading nation or a small minded country where exploitation flourishes.With David Cameron and Boris Johnson trading blows in this campaign it sometimes resembles a bunfight in the Eton tea room. This debate is not about who is to lead the Conservative Party, it’s about the kind of country we want Britain to be: engaged with our continent or isolated on the periphery; erecting barriers or building bridges; a great trading nation or a small minded country where exploitation flourishes.
As the largest political party in the country we’re asking our members to do even more in the final two weeks of the campaign in persuading Labour voters to protect jobs, our economy and workers’ rights by staying in the EU, the largest commercial market in the world.As the largest political party in the country we’re asking our members to do even more in the final two weeks of the campaign in persuading Labour voters to protect jobs, our economy and workers’ rights by staying in the EU, the largest commercial market in the world.
The truth is Labour are the only major political party who are united on this issue, so we need everyone - MPs, councillors, members and supporters - to redouble their efforts to defeat Nigel Farage, Michael Gove, Iain Duncan Smith and their friends by convincing a million more people to vote Remain.The truth is Labour are the only major political party who are united on this issue, so we need everyone - MPs, councillors, members and supporters - to redouble their efforts to defeat Nigel Farage, Michael Gove, Iain Duncan Smith and their friends by convincing a million more people to vote Remain.
This is from my colleague Jessica Elgot.This is from my colleague Jessica Elgot.
.@sadiqkhan now, says great to be in heart of 'Labour London'. David Cameron & Tories can't win referendum, he says pic.twitter.com/WPf6eaIAue.@sadiqkhan now, says great to be in heart of 'Labour London'. David Cameron & Tories can't win referendum, he says pic.twitter.com/WPf6eaIAue
9.36am BST9.36am BST
09:3609:36
Here is some Twitter comment on Sarah Wollaston’s “defection”.Here is some Twitter comment on Sarah Wollaston’s “defection”.
From YouGov’s Joe TwymanFrom YouGov’s Joe Twyman
Wollaston important if for no other reason than it breaks Press Release/Event-Attack-Defend-Repeat rhythm. Boosts chance of public noticing.Wollaston important if for no other reason than it breaks Press Release/Event-Attack-Defend-Repeat rhythm. Boosts chance of public noticing.
From the BBC’s Kamal AhmedFrom the BBC’s Kamal Ahmed
Don't think @sarahwollaston will be the last to change sides in #EUref Postal votes arriving have "focused minds" - it's decision timeDon't think @sarahwollaston will be the last to change sides in #EUref Postal votes arriving have "focused minds" - it's decision time
From Deborah Mattinson, the Britain Thinks pollsterFrom Deborah Mattinson, the Britain Thinks pollster
Sarah Wollaston sounding v plausible on @BBCr4today - calm, thoughtful, measured. And makes good case for politician mind-changing #EUrefSarah Wollaston sounding v plausible on @BBCr4today - calm, thoughtful, measured. And makes good case for politician mind-changing #EUref
From the Ukip MEP Patrick O’FlynnFrom the Ukip MEP Patrick O’Flynn
Must say I think BBC over-egging Sarah Wollaston story. Just one person having an Andy-and-Lou moment:"I want that one...I don't like it."Must say I think BBC over-egging Sarah Wollaston story. Just one person having an Andy-and-Lou moment:"I want that one...I don't like it."
From the Ukip MEP Roger HelmerFrom the Ukip MEP Roger Helmer
Let's get this right. Sarah Wollaston is leaving the Leave side because of "exaggerated claims". But she has no problem with Remain?Let's get this right. Sarah Wollaston is leaving the Leave side because of "exaggerated claims". But she has no problem with Remain?
From the New Statesman’s George EatonFrom the New Statesman’s George Eaton
Sarah Wollaston is great front woman for Remain: NHS champion, moderate, telegenic *and*changed mind.Sarah Wollaston is great front woman for Remain: NHS champion, moderate, telegenic *and*changed mind.
From Heidi Alexander, the shadow heath secretaryFrom Heidi Alexander, the shadow heath secretary
Good on @sarahwollaston. She is right to call out the nonsense of the Leave Campaign's arguments on the NHS. https://t.co/EGyFDSX9KfGood on @sarahwollaston. She is right to call out the nonsense of the Leave Campaign's arguments on the NHS. https://t.co/EGyFDSX9Kf
From Jeremy Hunt, the health secretaryFrom Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary
Brave decision by @sarahwollaston shows her commitment to NHS and concerns about impact of Brexit recession on public servicesBrave decision by @sarahwollaston shows her commitment to NHS and concerns about impact of Brexit recession on public services
From Conservative MP Michael FabricantFrom Conservative MP Michael Fabricant
Sarah Wollaston is WRONG when she said we have a net financial gain on medical research.We pay far more to the #EU pic.twitter.com/O9xJKwzCCkSarah Wollaston is WRONG when she said we have a net financial gain on medical research.We pay far more to the #EU pic.twitter.com/O9xJKwzCCk
9.23am BST9.23am BST
09:2309:23
Just for reference, here is a post showing what the cross-party Commons Treasury committee and the Institute for Fiscal Studies are saying about the Vote Leave £350m figure that Sarah Wollaston has denounced as a lie. The Treasury committee says it is “highly misleading” and the IFS says it includes assumptions that are “clearly absurd”.Just for reference, here is a post showing what the cross-party Commons Treasury committee and the Institute for Fiscal Studies are saying about the Vote Leave £350m figure that Sarah Wollaston has denounced as a lie. The Treasury committee says it is “highly misleading” and the IFS says it includes assumptions that are “clearly absurd”.
9.07am BST9.07am BST
09:0709:07
Wollaston accuses Vote Leave of practising 'post-truth politics'Wollaston accuses Vote Leave of practising 'post-truth politics'
Here is Sarah Wollaston’s article in the Times (paywall) explaining why she has changed her mind on Brexit and now decided that she is in favour of staying in the EU.Here is Sarah Wollaston’s article in the Times (paywall) explaining why she has changed her mind on Brexit and now decided that she is in favour of staying in the EU.
In the article Wollaston, a Tory MP, chair of the Commons health committee and a former GP, says that Vote Leave’s claim that leaving the EU would save £350m a week which could go to the NHS is not true, that Brexit would damage the NHS because it would damage the economy and that the Leave campaign, by focusing on immigration, “looks increasingly indistinguishable from Ukip”.In the article Wollaston, a Tory MP, chair of the Commons health committee and a former GP, says that Vote Leave’s claim that leaving the EU would save £350m a week which could go to the NHS is not true, that Brexit would damage the NHS because it would damage the economy and that the Leave campaign, by focusing on immigration, “looks increasingly indistinguishable from Ukip”.
She also suggests she has been influenced by conversations with her father.She also suggests she has been influenced by conversations with her father.
In recent weeks I have also observed the professionalism and care of the NHS from my father’s bedside as he recovered from a heart attack and a triple bypass. We had time for long conversations about the referendum and our place in Europe. Now 81, as a teenager he was trained as a mine clearance diver with the Royal Navy. For him, the risk of war in Europe is not some abstract debate but a horror against which the EU, for all its imperfections, has brought us protection.In recent weeks I have also observed the professionalism and care of the NHS from my father’s bedside as he recovered from a heart attack and a triple bypass. We had time for long conversations about the referendum and our place in Europe. Now 81, as a teenager he was trained as a mine clearance diver with the Royal Navy. For him, the risk of war in Europe is not some abstract debate but a horror against which the EU, for all its imperfections, has brought us protection.
In an interview on the Today programme a few minutes ago she said that some Vote Leave campaigners admit in private that their claim about EU membership costing £350m a week is not true. She accused them of practising “post-truth politics”.In an interview on the Today programme a few minutes ago she said that some Vote Leave campaigners admit in private that their claim about EU membership costing £350m a week is not true. She accused them of practising “post-truth politics”.
I think right from the outset there are people within the Leave campaign who acknowledge in private that they know this is not true, but what they are trying to encourage is a discussion about the amount. Well, this is a kind of post-truth politics. Having come into public life complaining about open and honest data, I can’t step foot on a battlebus or distribute a leaflet with information that I know to be untrue. And I’ve told them that.I think right from the outset there are people within the Leave campaign who acknowledge in private that they know this is not true, but what they are trying to encourage is a discussion about the amount. Well, this is a kind of post-truth politics. Having come into public life complaining about open and honest data, I can’t step foot on a battlebus or distribute a leaflet with information that I know to be untrue. And I’ve told them that.
8.47am BST8.47am BST
08:4708:47
Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary and one of the cabinet minister backing Brexit, has accused Sir John Major and Tony Blair of scaremongering. In a statement issued by Vote Leave she said:Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary and one of the cabinet minister backing Brexit, has accused Sir John Major and Tony Blair of scaremongering. In a statement issued by Vote Leave she said:
Support for the peace process in Northern Ireland is rock solid. The vast majority of people in Northern Ireland believe their future should only ever be determined by democracy and consent and not by violence. I very much hope figures who played such an important role in the peace process would not suggest that a Brexit vote would weaken that resolve in any way. Whatever the result of the referendum, Northern Ireland is not going back to the troubles of its past and to suggest otherwise would be highly irresponsible.Support for the peace process in Northern Ireland is rock solid. The vast majority of people in Northern Ireland believe their future should only ever be determined by democracy and consent and not by violence. I very much hope figures who played such an important role in the peace process would not suggest that a Brexit vote would weaken that resolve in any way. Whatever the result of the referendum, Northern Ireland is not going back to the troubles of its past and to suggest otherwise would be highly irresponsible.
8.31am BST8.31am BST
08:3108:31
Andrew SparrowAndrew Sparrow
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire.Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire.
We’ve already mentioned the fact that Sir John Major and Tony Blair will be campaigning together in Northern Ireland today, highlighting the threat Brexit would pose to the peace process, and to the unity of the UK as a whole.We’ve already mentioned the fact that Sir John Major and Tony Blair will be campaigning together in Northern Ireland today, highlighting the threat Brexit would pose to the peace process, and to the unity of the UK as a whole.
According to remarks released in advance, Major will say:According to remarks released in advance, Major will say:
I believe it would be a dreadful mistake to do anything that has any risk of destabilising the complicated and multi-layered constitutional settlement that underpins stability in Northern Ireland.I believe it would be a dreadful mistake to do anything that has any risk of destabilising the complicated and multi-layered constitutional settlement that underpins stability in Northern Ireland.
But that is what a British exit from the EU would do: it would throw all of the pieces of the constitutional jigsaw into the air again, and no-one could say where they might land ...But that is what a British exit from the EU would do: it would throw all of the pieces of the constitutional jigsaw into the air again, and no-one could say where they might land ...
The most successful union in world history would be broken apart for good.The most successful union in world history would be broken apart for good.
And Blair will say:And Blair will say:
I say, don’t take a punt on these people [the Leave campaign]. Don’t let them take risks with Northern Ireland’s future. Don’t let them undermine our United Kingdom ...I say, don’t take a punt on these people [the Leave campaign]. Don’t let them take risks with Northern Ireland’s future. Don’t let them undermine our United Kingdom ...
We understand that, although today Northern Ireland is more stable and more prosperous than ever, that stability is poised on carefully constructed foundations. And so we are naturally concerned at the prospect of anything that could put those foundations at risk.We understand that, although today Northern Ireland is more stable and more prosperous than ever, that stability is poised on carefully constructed foundations. And so we are naturally concerned at the prospect of anything that could put those foundations at risk.
7.58am BST7.58am BST
07:5807:58
Claire PhippsClaire Phipps
Time for me to log off and leave you in the hands of Andrew Sparrow for the rest of today’s action and mudslinging.Time for me to log off and leave you in the hands of Andrew Sparrow for the rest of today’s action and mudslinging.
Thanks for reading and for the comments.Thanks for reading and for the comments.
7.56am BST7.56am BST
07:5607:56
Reuters reports that the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, the country’s leading forecaster, has warned that Dutch exposure to a possible British exit would be greater than for other members of the EU and could trim 1.2% percent off the Netherlands economy by 2030:Reuters reports that the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, the country’s leading forecaster, has warned that Dutch exposure to a possible British exit would be greater than for other members of the EU and could trim 1.2% percent off the Netherlands economy by 2030:
A Brexit will have a relatively severe effect on the economy of the Netherlands,” it said.A Brexit will have a relatively severe effect on the economy of the Netherlands,” it said.
The CPB’s analysis, which reviewed four other Brexit scenarios in the EU, provided the most negative outlook yet on the possible impact of a British exit for the Netherlands. The government and central bank have so far said the impact would be limited.The CPB’s analysis, which reviewed four other Brexit scenarios in the EU, provided the most negative outlook yet on the possible impact of a British exit for the Netherlands. The government and central bank have so far said the impact would be limited.
Brexit-related costs may reach €10bn, or 1.2% of the Dutch economy, which is the sixth largest in the bloc. They could increase by as much as 65% to 2% of GDP, said the CPB, whose forecasts are used by the government to determine budget policy.Brexit-related costs may reach €10bn, or 1.2% of the Dutch economy, which is the sixth largest in the bloc. They could increase by as much as 65% to 2% of GDP, said the CPB, whose forecasts are used by the government to determine budget policy.
Britain’s withdrawal from the EU would take two years, while uncertainty about trade agreements between the EU and Britain would have an impact on investment in Britain, it said.Britain’s withdrawal from the EU would take two years, while uncertainty about trade agreements between the EU and Britain would have an impact on investment in Britain, it said.
Renegotiating trade agreements could take several years but even if completed successfully the Dutch economy would be worse off, the CPB said.Renegotiating trade agreements could take several years but even if completed successfully the Dutch economy would be worse off, the CPB said.
“The economic damage caused by that uncertainty will be the greatest in the short term and can already be seen in the run-up to the UK referendum,” it said.“The economic damage caused by that uncertainty will be the greatest in the short term and can already be seen in the run-up to the UK referendum,” it said.
The worst-hit sectors of the Dutch economy would be chemicals, plastics and rubber, electronic equipment, motor vehicles and parts, the food processing industry and metals and minerals, the CPB said.The worst-hit sectors of the Dutch economy would be chemicals, plastics and rubber, electronic equipment, motor vehicles and parts, the food processing industry and metals and minerals, the CPB said.
7.45am BST7.45am BST
07:4507:45
An eagle-eyed reader spots a flaw in today’s diary:An eagle-eyed reader spots a flaw in today’s diary:
How is Gisela Stuart on the ITV debate and at the Oxford Union at the same time? Has she cloned herself?How is Gisela Stuart on the ITV debate and at the Oxford Union at the same time? Has she cloned herself?
Curiously, both ITV and the Oxford Union are claming Gisela Stuart on their stages tonight, at overlapping times.Curiously, both ITV and the Oxford Union are claming Gisela Stuart on their stages tonight, at overlapping times.
I imagine one of them – possibly the prime-time TV option – will win out, but we’ll let you know.I imagine one of them – possibly the prime-time TV option – will win out, but we’ll let you know.
Alternatively, Stuart could try out that old sitcom favourite, the two-timer date, and dash from studio to spires between questions.Alternatively, Stuart could try out that old sitcom favourite, the two-timer date, and dash from studio to spires between questions.
7.30am BST7.30am BST
07:3007:30
It’s only breakfast time and we have the first Nazi reference of the day. And a derogatory mental health reference for good measure. Sigh.It’s only breakfast time and we have the first Nazi reference of the day. And a derogatory mental health reference for good measure. Sigh.
It comes courtesy of Alan Sked, the founder of Ukip, as Press Association reports:It comes courtesy of Alan Sked, the founder of Ukip, as Press Association reports:
The Remain campaign’s tactics have been compared to those of Nazi propaganda chief Josef Goebbels by the founder of Ukip.The Remain campaign’s tactics have been compared to those of Nazi propaganda chief Josef Goebbels by the founder of Ukip.
Professor Alan Sked also used a speech at the London School of Economics to suggest that prime minister David Cameron was a lunatic.Professor Alan Sked also used a speech at the London School of Economics to suggest that prime minister David Cameron was a lunatic.
Sked said Remain “seeks to scare the voters with a Big Lie technique that Josef Goebbels himself would have been proud of”.Sked said Remain “seeks to scare the voters with a Big Lie technique that Josef Goebbels himself would have been proud of”.
He went on:He went on:
We are told that Brexit – that is to say, the re-establishment of a harmless, normally self-governing, democratic Britain – would lead to war, genocide, economic collapse, terrorist infiltration, isolation and much worse.We are told that Brexit – that is to say, the re-establishment of a harmless, normally self-governing, democratic Britain – would lead to war, genocide, economic collapse, terrorist infiltration, isolation and much worse.
Not so long ago people who went around crying that the end of the world is nigh were locked up in lunatic asylums. Today they are allowed to live in Downing Street.Not so long ago people who went around crying that the end of the world is nigh were locked up in lunatic asylums. Today they are allowed to live in Downing Street.
7.27am BST7.27am BST
07:2707:27
Sarah Wollaston has clearly been uncomfortable with the £350m figure for a while, at least:Sarah Wollaston has clearly been uncomfortable with the £350m figure for a while, at least:
.@vote_leave should stop using the £350m/week figure. It is misleading & undermines their arguments as on @BBCNewsnight.@vote_leave should stop using the £350m/week figure. It is misleading & undermines their arguments as on @BBCNewsnight
7.19am BST7.19am BST
07:1907:19
John Redwood has been speaking on the Today programme about the case for leave and that £350m figure that Sarah Wollaston, in her reasoning for switching sides, called “untrue”.John Redwood has been speaking on the Today programme about the case for leave and that £350m figure that Sarah Wollaston, in her reasoning for switching sides, called “untrue”.
Redwood insisted Vote Leave was correct to use the figure:Redwood insisted Vote Leave was correct to use the figure:
It’s the gross figure … You then need to allow for the fact that we get a rebate … That is the official gross figure.It’s the gross figure … You then need to allow for the fact that we get a rebate … That is the official gross figure.
He said pro-Brexit politicians would “want to carry on paying that money” that currently comes back from the EU to farmers and others within the UK.He said pro-Brexit politicians would “want to carry on paying that money” that currently comes back from the EU to farmers and others within the UK.
Today presenter Nick Robinson pressed him pretty forcefully on the £350m:Today presenter Nick Robinson pressed him pretty forcefully on the £350m:
We don’t actually send it … We only send what the discounted bill is, it’s £267m.We don’t actually send it … We only send what the discounted bill is, it’s £267m.
After what is spent of that £267 in Britain, Robinson says, the real figure is £161m.After what is spent of that £267 in Britain, Robinson says, the real figure is £161m.
That’s not the point, Redwood told him:That’s not the point, Redwood told him:
It’s the money that we could spend on our priorities … We could do so out of all the money we’d save.It’s the money that we could spend on our priorities … We could do so out of all the money we’d save.
He insisted the £350m figure was “not a lie”.He insisted the £350m figure was “not a lie”.
Questioned on comments by George Osborne yesterday that suggested Turkish membership of the EU was not on the cards, Redwood said:Questioned on comments by George Osborne yesterday that suggested Turkish membership of the EU was not on the cards, Redwood said:
That is against government policy.That is against government policy.
The government has made it very clear they wish to help accelerate Turkish membership.The government has made it very clear they wish to help accelerate Turkish membership.
He’s clearly wrong.He’s clearly wrong.
UpdatedUpdated
at 7.32am BSTat 7.32am BST
6.57am BST6.57am BST
06:5706:57
Morning briefingMorning briefing
Claire PhippsClaire Phipps
Good morning and welcome to the daily EU referendum live blog. I’ve scooped up all you need to know for the day ahead; Andrew Sparrow will be along later to take his seat. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.Good morning and welcome to the daily EU referendum live blog. I’ve scooped up all you need to know for the day ahead; Andrew Sparrow will be along later to take his seat. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.
The big pictureThe big picture
A boost for Bremain (sorry, I fell for the alliteration) this morning, with news that Tory MP Dr Sarah Wollaston, previously a Brexit backer, has now said she will vote for Britain to stay in the EU. The push that became a shove was, the former GP says, the claim by Vote Leave that quitting would free up £350m a week for the NHS – something she says “simply isn’t true”:A boost for Bremain (sorry, I fell for the alliteration) this morning, with news that Tory MP Dr Sarah Wollaston, previously a Brexit backer, has now said she will vote for Britain to stay in the EU. The push that became a shove was, the former GP says, the claim by Vote Leave that quitting would free up £350m a week for the NHS – something she says “simply isn’t true”:
For someone like me who has long campaigned for open and honest data in public life I could not have set foot on a battle bus that has at the heart of its campaign a figure that I know to be untrue.For someone like me who has long campaigned for open and honest data in public life I could not have set foot on a battle bus that has at the heart of its campaign a figure that I know to be untrue.
If you’re in a position where you can’t hand out a Vote Leave leaflet, you can’t be campaigning for that organisation.If you’re in a position where you can’t hand out a Vote Leave leaflet, you can’t be campaigning for that organisation.
In an article for the Times (I cannot find it on the website but see it here), Wollaston adds:In an article for the Times (I cannot find it on the website but see it here), Wollaston adds:
The Leave campaign has redrawn its battle lines around immigration for the final weeks of the campaign and looks increasingly indistinguishable from Ukip.The Leave campaign has redrawn its battle lines around immigration for the final weeks of the campaign and looks increasingly indistinguishable from Ukip.
Does the defection of one MP matter much? David Cameron is certainly pleased. Responses from the leave side range from critical to dismissive to conspiracy theorist. Perhaps, though, it suggests – as the c12% of undecided voters might confirm – there are people who have been waiting to hear the arguments before they settle in a camp. The very idea!Does the defection of one MP matter much? David Cameron is certainly pleased. Responses from the leave side range from critical to dismissive to conspiracy theorist. Perhaps, though, it suggests – as the c12% of undecided voters might confirm – there are people who have been waiting to hear the arguments before they settle in a camp. The very idea!
Of course I understand that politicians are not allowed to change their minds but real people doOf course I understand that politicians are not allowed to change their minds but real people do
Don’t expect any floor-crossing this evening as ITV hosts a referendum debate that is actually a debate featuring, for remain, Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon, Tory energy secretary Amber Rudd and Labour’s shadow business secretary Angela Eagle; and for leave, Conservatives Boris Johnson and energy minister Andrea Leadsom, and Labour’s Gisela Stuart. ITV’s Julie Etchingham moderates again.Don’t expect any floor-crossing this evening as ITV hosts a referendum debate that is actually a debate featuring, for remain, Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon, Tory energy secretary Amber Rudd and Labour’s shadow business secretary Angela Eagle; and for leave, Conservatives Boris Johnson and energy minister Andrea Leadsom, and Labour’s Gisela Stuart. ITV’s Julie Etchingham moderates again.
Expect: questions on a second Scottish referendum; disputes over that £350m figure; Tory leadership speculation; some sort of joke from Johnson about being the only man on the stage as if that isn’t (reversed) absolutely the normal state of affairs for every single woman in politics.Expect: questions on a second Scottish referendum; disputes over that £350m figure; Tory leadership speculation; some sort of joke from Johnson about being the only man on the stage as if that isn’t (reversed) absolutely the normal state of affairs for every single woman in politics.
And after the debate, please don’t all rush at once to register to vote before the all-new midnight Thursday deadline. MPs will vote earlier in the day to allow the 48-hour extension to the registration deadline, following the crashing of the official website as the original cut-off point approached on Tuesday night.And after the debate, please don’t all rush at once to register to vote before the all-new midnight Thursday deadline. MPs will vote earlier in the day to allow the 48-hour extension to the registration deadline, following the crashing of the official website as the original cut-off point approached on Tuesday night.
Pro-Brexit Tory MP Bernard Jenkin and Leave.EU funder Arron Banks have both warned that that if the result of the referendum were to be close, the decision to extend the deadline could be challenged by a judicial review. But the Electoral Commission said it supported the extension.Pro-Brexit Tory MP Bernard Jenkin and Leave.EU funder Arron Banks have both warned that that if the result of the referendum were to be close, the decision to extend the deadline could be challenged by a judicial review. But the Electoral Commission said it supported the extension.
You should also know:You should also know:
Poll positionPoll position
No fresh polls today. Enjoy the silence.No fresh polls today. Enjoy the silence.
DiaryDiary
Read theseRead these
Nicholas Vinocur and Tara Palmeri in Politico say France will not play nicely in the event that Britain votes to leave the EU:Nicholas Vinocur and Tara Palmeri in Politico say France will not play nicely in the event that Britain votes to leave the EU:
The French push is focused on convincing the remaining EU countries to unwind all treaties and agreements binding the UK to the bloc quickly, so the divorce is sealed by withdrawing subsidies, re-evaluating trade relationships sector by sector, denying British supervisory bodies EU recognition in areas like financial services, and establishing new immigration rules, to name just a few levers …The French push is focused on convincing the remaining EU countries to unwind all treaties and agreements binding the UK to the bloc quickly, so the divorce is sealed by withdrawing subsidies, re-evaluating trade relationships sector by sector, denying British supervisory bodies EU recognition in areas like financial services, and establishing new immigration rules, to name just a few levers …
France would not be acting out of spite, officials said, and has no interest in setting off a tit-for-tat war of punitive measures. But as a core EU member, sources said it had a responsibility to strengthen the bloc and deprive anti-EU parties – not just the FN but also the likes of Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom in the Netherlands – of a chance to use Britain as a shining example of what life can be after the European Union.France would not be acting out of spite, officials said, and has no interest in setting off a tit-for-tat war of punitive measures. But as a core EU member, sources said it had a responsibility to strengthen the bloc and deprive anti-EU parties – not just the FN but also the likes of Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom in the Netherlands – of a chance to use Britain as a shining example of what life can be after the European Union.
The Spectator pits Matthew Parris and Daniel Hannan against each other to give their best reasons to vote In or Out (I’m going to let readers assume which of them argues which case). A taster:The Spectator pits Matthew Parris and Daniel Hannan against each other to give their best reasons to vote In or Out (I’m going to let readers assume which of them argues which case). A taster:
Europe has become a proxy for people’s sense of powerlessness.Europe has become a proxy for people’s sense of powerlessness.
Ask yourself, though, who the ‘we’ are who would be ‘taking back control’. The ‘we’ used by Brexiteers is menacingly unspecific. Some of the ‘we’ want much less regulation, some want much more, some want different. The collective ‘we’ can only survive the first few yards of this journey – from now until 24 June. After any decision to leave, that sense of purpose would fragment.Ask yourself, though, who the ‘we’ are who would be ‘taking back control’. The ‘we’ used by Brexiteers is menacingly unspecific. Some of the ‘we’ want much less regulation, some want much more, some want different. The collective ‘we’ can only survive the first few yards of this journey – from now until 24 June. After any decision to leave, that sense of purpose would fragment.
‘Europe’ has soaked up for us a million gripes about the modern world: a proxy and convenient target for a national irritability which, were Europe to be removed, would not go away.‘Europe’ has soaked up for us a million gripes about the modern world: a proxy and convenient target for a national irritability which, were Europe to be removed, would not go away.
Baffling claim of the dayBaffling claim of the day
The Telegraph leads today with the news that “Thatcher minister quits Tories in Brexit row”. The minister is Sir John Nott, the row is that he says he won’t renew his party membership until Cameron is replaced as leader, and the baffling bit is that the article says Nott “is understood to have voted for Ukip in European elections” in 2014 anyway.The Telegraph leads today with the news that “Thatcher minister quits Tories in Brexit row”. The minister is Sir John Nott, the row is that he says he won’t renew his party membership until Cameron is replaced as leader, and the baffling bit is that the article says Nott “is understood to have voted for Ukip in European elections” in 2014 anyway.
Celebrity endorsement of the dayCelebrity endorsement of the day
Former US president and potential First Dude-in-waiting Bill Clinton, writing in the New Statesman (again, apparently not online yet; the morning briefing is just too darned ahead of itself), cites the “future properity and peace” of Northern Ireland as a reason to vote remain:Former US president and potential First Dude-in-waiting Bill Clinton, writing in the New Statesman (again, apparently not online yet; the morning briefing is just too darned ahead of itself), cites the “future properity and peace” of Northern Ireland as a reason to vote remain:
Britain is a leading representative of Europe throughout the world … I hope you will stay.Britain is a leading representative of Europe throughout the world … I hope you will stay.
The archbishop of York, John Sentamu, has come to the same conclusion, writing in the Telegraph today:The archbishop of York, John Sentamu, has come to the same conclusion, writing in the Telegraph today:
Not all decisions should be made purely on the basis of ‘What’s in it for us?’ It is also significant, therefore, that a far higher percentage of young people wish to stay in the EU than older people; it is they, principally, who will have to live with the consequences of the decision that we take on June 23.Not all decisions should be made purely on the basis of ‘What’s in it for us?’ It is also significant, therefore, that a far higher percentage of young people wish to stay in the EU than older people; it is they, principally, who will have to live with the consequences of the decision that we take on June 23.
The day in a tweetThe day in a tweet
Remain supporters may be gloating about the Sarah Wollaston defection now, but just you wait till Grassroots Out unveil Cameron tomorrowRemain supporters may be gloating about the Sarah Wollaston defection now, but just you wait till Grassroots Out unveil Cameron tomorrow
If today were a book ...If today were a book ...
It would be Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil. Or Tom’s Midnight Garden. Or Midnight Express. Anything with midnight in it, basically. MIDNIGHT. Got that?It would be Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil. Or Tom’s Midnight Garden. Or Midnight Express. Anything with midnight in it, basically. MIDNIGHT. Got that?
And another thingAnd another thing
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