This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jun/20/pound-shares-markets-eu-referendum-brexit-fears-business-live
The article has changed 16 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| Pound and shares soar as Brexit fears ease – business live | Pound and shares soar as Brexit fears ease – business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 9.27am BST | |
| 09:27 | |
| GBPUSD up 2.15% today, up about 4.5% since its Thursday lows 🚀🚀🚀 | |
| 9.20am BST | |
| 09:20 | |
| Last night, prime minister David Cameron tried to persuade voters to back his campaign to remain in a reformed European Union. | |
| The PM told a special edition of Question Time that he believes Britain should “stay and fight”, rather than quitting the EU. | |
| At one point, Cameron declared: | |
| “At my office, I sit two yards away from the cabinet room where Winston Churchill decided in May 1940 to fight on against Hitler, the greatest decision that anyone has ever made in our country. | |
| Ana Thaker, market economist at PhillipCapital UK, reckons this is helping to push the pound up today: | |
| Sterling has pared any losses we saw last week. PM Cameron appeared on Question Time yesterday, answering questions from the public regarding the impending referendum and support for ‘Remain’ has seen the currency strengthen. | |
| Updated | |
| at 9.20am BST | |
| 9.12am BST | |
| 09:12 | |
| Despite today’s rally, the markets are still in a relatively precarious position, says Connor Campbell of City firm SpreadEx: | |
| The slightest sign that the public are shifting in favour of Vote Leave will likely see today’s gains rapidly dissipate, while an intensification of pre-referendum nerves as the week goes on could see markets chop and change even without any new polling news. | |
| 9.00am BST | 9.00am BST |
| 09:00 | 09:00 |
| Pound on track for best day since 2009 | Pound on track for best day since 2009 |
| Sterling is on course to post its strongest day since the aftermath of the financial crisis. | Sterling is on course to post its strongest day since the aftermath of the financial crisis. |
| The pound is holding onto its early gains, and is up 1.6% against the US dollar at $1.458 right now. | The pound is holding onto its early gains, and is up 1.6% against the US dollar at $1.458 right now. |
| That’s a really chunky move for sterling – according to Reuters data, such a big swing hasn’t happened since 2009. | That’s a really chunky move for sterling – according to Reuters data, such a big swing hasn’t happened since 2009. |
| Sterling +1.7% vs dollar in early trading today, on track for its biggest one-day rise since 15 October, 2009. pic.twitter.com/64ZZssCjo9 | Sterling +1.7% vs dollar in early trading today, on track for its biggest one-day rise since 15 October, 2009. pic.twitter.com/64ZZssCjo9 |
| Our friends at fastFT confirm that today’s rally is one of the biggest of the last decade: | Our friends at fastFT confirm that today’s rally is one of the biggest of the last decade: |
| Updated | |
| at 9.29am BST | |
| 8.53am BST | 8.53am BST |
| 08:53 | 08:53 |
| There are still two referendum debates to look forward to... | There are still two referendum debates to look forward to... |
| What to look out for this week #BREXIT pic.twitter.com/g2f9F39sVH | What to look out for this week #BREXIT pic.twitter.com/g2f9F39sVH |
| 8.46am BST | 8.46am BST |
| 08:46 | 08:46 |
| Today’s stock market rally looks decisive, but we’ll probably see more market turmoil in the next few days | Today’s stock market rally looks decisive, but we’ll probably see more market turmoil in the next few days |
| Kit Juckes, the experienced foreign exchange expert at French bank Société Générale, explains: | Kit Juckes, the experienced foreign exchange expert at French bank Société Générale, explains: |
| Polls remain very even, with the FT’s poll tracker showing both camps at 44%. | Polls remain very even, with the FT’s poll tracker showing both camps at 44%. |
| The market will surely gyrate some more in the next few days as any shift in that position triggers an exaggerated reaction, not just for sterling but for wider risk sentiment. | The market will surely gyrate some more in the next few days as any shift in that position triggers an exaggerated reaction, not just for sterling but for wider risk sentiment. |
| tighter than a tight thing on national tights day. https://t.co/2l8JfNx9NA pic.twitter.com/UnYgu75o8D | tighter than a tight thing on national tights day. https://t.co/2l8JfNx9NA pic.twitter.com/UnYgu75o8D |
| 8.41am BST | 8.41am BST |
| 08:41 | 08:41 |
| Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFX, says there is a global rush into ‘risky’ assets today. | Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFX, says there is a global rush into ‘risky’ assets today. |
| “The British Pound soared at the start of the week and the Euro followed upward after new polling data released over the weekend showed ebbing support for “Brexit” at this week’s UK EU membership referendum. Survation reported a 45 to 42 preference for a “Remain” vote while an analogous poll from YouGov gave the status quo a 44 to 43 percent lead. | “The British Pound soared at the start of the week and the Euro followed upward after new polling data released over the weekend showed ebbing support for “Brexit” at this week’s UK EU membership referendum. Survation reported a 45 to 42 preference for a “Remain” vote while an analogous poll from YouGov gave the status quo a 44 to 43 percent lead. |
| “The outcomes likewise bolstered risk appetite. The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars tracked stocks upward while the anti-risk Japanese Yen plunged. The likewise haven-linked US Dollar is also under pressure. Gold prices and US 10-year Treasury futures likewise swooned as capital flowed away from safety-seeking assets. | “The outcomes likewise bolstered risk appetite. The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars tracked stocks upward while the anti-risk Japanese Yen plunged. The likewise haven-linked US Dollar is also under pressure. Gold prices and US 10-year Treasury futures likewise swooned as capital flowed away from safety-seeking assets. |
| 8.34am BST | 8.34am BST |
| 08:34 | 08:34 |
| Here’s the best-performing shares in the City this morning: | Here’s the best-performing shares in the City this morning: |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.39am BST | at 8.39am BST |
| 8.33am BST | 8.33am BST |
| 08:33 | 08:33 |
| The London stock market has hit its highest level since 10 June, as this morning’s rally wipes out recent losses. | The London stock market has hit its highest level since 10 June, as this morning’s rally wipes out recent losses. |
| 8.10am BST | 8.10am BST |
| 08:10 | 08:10 |
| FTSE 100 jumps by 2% | FTSE 100 jumps by 2% |
| Britain’s FTSE 100 index has surged by 136 points at the start of trading, as City investors react to the polls showing the Remain campaign gaining ground. | Britain’s FTSE 100 index has surged by 136 points at the start of trading, as City investors react to the polls showing the Remain campaign gaining ground. |
| Almost every share is gaining ground, as money pours back into shares, pushing the benchmark index up by over 2%. | Almost every share is gaining ground, as money pours back into shares, pushing the benchmark index up by over 2%. |
| Royal Bank of Scotland, the taxpayer-owned bank, is leading the rally with a 6% surge. Lloyds Banking Group are up 5%. | Royal Bank of Scotland, the taxpayer-owned bank, is leading the rally with a 6% surge. Lloyds Banking Group are up 5%. |
| And housebuilders are also leading the charge – they had suffered from fears that Brexit would mean less demand for housing, especially if the UK entered recession. | And housebuilders are also leading the charge – they had suffered from fears that Brexit would mean less demand for housing, especially if the UK entered recession. |
| Mike van Dulken, analyst at Accendo Markets, explains: | Mike van Dulken, analyst at Accendo Markets, explains: |
| A positive European open comes as weekend Brexit polls (and bookies’ odds) suggest the Remain campaign regaining some lost ground and in some cases re-taken the lead ahead of Thursday’s UK referendum vote on EU membership. | A positive European open comes as weekend Brexit polls (and bookies’ odds) suggest the Remain campaign regaining some lost ground and in some cases re-taken the lead ahead of Thursday’s UK referendum vote on EU membership. |
| A higher chance of the UK voting to stay is a relief for markets (equities and the pound sterling) that had been preparing themselves for a Leave vote and the uncertainty it could inflict from both a financial, economic and political standpoint. | A higher chance of the UK voting to stay is a relief for markets (equities and the pound sterling) that had been preparing themselves for a Leave vote and the uncertainty it could inflict from both a financial, economic and political standpoint. |
| In Europe, the French and German stock markets both leapt by around 2.4% at the open. | In Europe, the French and German stock markets both leapt by around 2.4% at the open. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.10am BST | at 8.10am BST |
| 8.01am BST | 8.01am BST |
| 08:01 | 08:01 |
| And we’re off! European stock markets are opening sharply higher, with financial stocks leading the way...... | And we’re off! European stock markets are opening sharply higher, with financial stocks leading the way...... |
| 8.00am BST | 8.00am BST |
| 08:00 | 08:00 |
| Today’s newspaper front pages show how the EU referendum campaign picked up last night: | Today’s newspaper front pages show how the EU referendum campaign picked up last night: |
| Monday's Guardian:I need to make better EU case, says Cameron#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/n39YvAhO92 | Monday's Guardian:I need to make better EU case, says Cameron#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/n39YvAhO92 |
| Revised Times front page:Brexit camp divided as senior Tory walks out#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/LyoYwZpMO2 | Revised Times front page:Brexit camp divided as senior Tory walks out#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/LyoYwZpMO2 |
| Monday's Telegraph front page -Boris: Vote Leave, change history#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/oMyQHOkQEg | Monday's Telegraph front page -Boris: Vote Leave, change history#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/oMyQHOkQEg |
| 7.55am BST | 7.55am BST |
| 07:55 | 07:55 |
| Pound jumps after "swing back to status quo" | Pound jumps after "swing back to status quo" |
| Sterling is rallying hard this morning - another sign that Brexit worries are easing. | Sterling is rallying hard this morning - another sign that Brexit worries are easing. |
| The pound has jumped more than two cents, or 1.5%, to $1.4572, after weekend opinion polls showed the Remain campaign picking up more support. | The pound has jumped more than two cents, or 1.5%, to $1.4572, after weekend opinion polls showed the Remain campaign picking up more support. |
| That’s its highest level since June 7, before opinion polls showed the Leave campaign in the ascendant. | That’s its highest level since June 7, before opinion polls showed the Leave campaign in the ascendant. |
| Against the euro, the pound has gained 1% or 1.2 eurocents to €1.2848. That means one euro is worth 77.8p. | Against the euro, the pound has gained 1% or 1.2 eurocents to €1.2848. That means one euro is worth 77.8p. |
| Analysts at RBC Capital Markets say investors are reacting to the latest opinion polls: | Analysts at RBC Capital Markets say investors are reacting to the latest opinion polls: |
| In the UK, there were three surveys released over the weekend that all showed some swing back towards ‘Remain’. The Survation poll showed a 45/42 lead for ‘Remain’ (up from 42/45 previously), a YouGov Poll showed a 44/42 lead (42/44 previously) while Opinium stood at 44/44 equal split. | In the UK, there were three surveys released over the weekend that all showed some swing back towards ‘Remain’. The Survation poll showed a 45/42 lead for ‘Remain’ (up from 42/45 previously), a YouGov Poll showed a 44/42 lead (42/44 previously) while Opinium stood at 44/44 equal split. |
| Those polls were all conducted around the tragic events of last week - with some responses coming in before and some after the murder of Jo Cox. | Those polls were all conducted around the tragic events of last week - with some responses coming in before and some after the murder of Jo Cox. |
| Thus, it might be possible that the events influenced the polls but most experts commented that it is more likely that an expected and well documented ‘pull to the status-quo’ is responsible for the latest swing. The poll-of-polls averaging the last six polls has returned to 50/50 while the bookmakers’ odds for Brexit have fallen considerably to around 30% again. | Thus, it might be possible that the events influenced the polls but most experts commented that it is more likely that an expected and well documented ‘pull to the status-quo’ is responsible for the latest swing. The poll-of-polls averaging the last six polls has returned to 50/50 while the bookmakers’ odds for Brexit have fallen considerably to around 30% again. |
| GBP outperforms in FX markets after the latest batch of polls show a lead for the ‘remain’ camp ahead of Thursday’s referendum | GBP outperforms in FX markets after the latest batch of polls show a lead for the ‘remain’ camp ahead of Thursday’s referendum |
| 7.43am BST | 7.43am BST |
| 07:43 | 07:43 |
| How the polls have shifted | How the polls have shifted |
| Claire Phipps | Claire Phipps |
| Here’s a round-up of the latest referendum opinion polls (from our EU referendum liveblog): | Here’s a round-up of the latest referendum opinion polls (from our EU referendum liveblog): |
| The FT poll of polls now pegs remain and leave on 44% apiece. | The FT poll of polls now pegs remain and leave on 44% apiece. |
| 7.41am BST | 7.41am BST |
| 07:41 | 07:41 |
| Shares surge in Asia | Shares surge in Asia |
| Stock markets across Asia have soared today, as investors grew more confident that the British public will vote to remain in the EU. | Stock markets across Asia have soared today, as investors grew more confident that the British public will vote to remain in the EU. |
| Japan’s Nikkei 225 index led the way, gaining almost 2.3% today. | Japan’s Nikkei 225 index led the way, gaining almost 2.3% today. |
| The Nikkei is often a good barometer of investor sentiment -- liable to tumble when nervous traders drive up the value of the Japanese Yen (hurting the country’s exporters and raising deflation fears). | The Nikkei is often a good barometer of investor sentiment -- liable to tumble when nervous traders drive up the value of the Japanese Yen (hurting the country’s exporters and raising deflation fears). |
| The Hong Kong Hang Seng index is close behind, up 1.8%, as is Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index. | The Hong Kong Hang Seng index is close behind, up 1.8%, as is Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index. |
| Risk-on start to a high-risk week: #Japan's Nikkei ends up 2.3% at 15965.30 while safe haven Yen weakens vs Dollar. pic.twitter.com/35c3LaCXa0 | Risk-on start to a high-risk week: #Japan's Nikkei ends up 2.3% at 15965.30 while safe haven Yen weakens vs Dollar. pic.twitter.com/35c3LaCXa0 |
| Although these trading floors are thousands of miles from the UK, Britain’s referendum is still top of the agenda. | Although these trading floors are thousands of miles from the UK, Britain’s referendum is still top of the agenda. |
| Margaret Yang, an analyst at CMC Markets in Singapore, explains: | Margaret Yang, an analyst at CMC Markets in Singapore, explains: |
| The entire market is now focused on the UK’s EU referendum result.... | The entire market is now focused on the UK’s EU referendum result.... |
| It is expected that a vote to remain would lead to a quick unwinding of risk premium and a substantial risk-on rally, whereas a Brexit vote would have the opposite effect.” | It is expected that a vote to remain would lead to a quick unwinding of risk premium and a substantial risk-on rally, whereas a Brexit vote would have the opposite effect.” |
| 7.28am BST | 7.28am BST |
| 07:28 | 07:28 |
| The agenda: Markets eye EU referendum | The agenda: Markets eye EU referendum |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| It’s a crucial week for investors around the globe, as the long-running UK referendum campaign enters its final days. | It’s a crucial week for investors around the globe, as the long-running UK referendum campaign enters its final days. |
| And London’s financial markets are expected to soar, following weekend polling showing that the campaign to Remain in the European Union is making up ground. | And London’s financial markets are expected to soar, following weekend polling showing that the campaign to Remain in the European Union is making up ground. |
| Asian stock markets have rallied strongly overnight, and it looks like Europe will follow suit at 8am. | Asian stock markets have rallied strongly overnight, and it looks like Europe will follow suit at 8am. |
| IG are predicting that the FTSE 100 will soar by nearly 3% at the open – a really big move - as fears of a Brexit ease. The pound is also rallying in early trading, hitting a two week high (more on that shortly) | IG are predicting that the FTSE 100 will soar by nearly 3% at the open – a really big move - as fears of a Brexit ease. The pound is also rallying in early trading, hitting a two week high (more on that shortly) |
| Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6182 up 161$DAX 9855 up 224$CAC 4297 up 103$IBEX 8574 up 212$MIB 17190 up 267 | Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6182 up 161$DAX 9855 up 224$CAC 4297 up 103$IBEX 8574 up 212$MIB 17190 up 267 |
| This may be premature...... there are still three days to go until the vote. Campaigning resumed last night, following a two-day break following the awful, tragic death of Jo Cox MP on Thursday. | This may be premature...... there are still three days to go until the vote. Campaigning resumed last night, following a two-day break following the awful, tragic death of Jo Cox MP on Thursday. |
| Our main EU referendum blog will be tracking all the key political developments in the referendum today, including tributes to Jo Cox and her work in parliament: | Our main EU referendum blog will be tracking all the key political developments in the referendum today, including tributes to Jo Cox and her work in parliament: |
| Related: EU referendum live: Warsi swaps sides over 'nudge-nudge xenophobia' | Related: EU referendum live: Warsi swaps sides over 'nudge-nudge xenophobia' |
| There’s not much else in the economic or financial calendar, so the City should be free to watch the referendum campaign enter its final lap. | There’s not much else in the economic or financial calendar, so the City should be free to watch the referendum campaign enter its final lap. |
| Weekend Brexit polls suggesting we're back to neck-n-neck and #FTSE100 is back to middle of May 6050-6300 range pic.twitter.com/2Tu7iIE4rY | Weekend Brexit polls suggesting we're back to neck-n-neck and #FTSE100 is back to middle of May 6050-6300 range pic.twitter.com/2Tu7iIE4rY |
| We’ll be tracking all the main economic and financial news through the day.... | We’ll be tracking all the main economic and financial news through the day.... |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.43am BST | at 7.43am BST |