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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jun/20/pound-shares-markets-eu-referendum-brexit-fears-business-live
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| Pound and shares soar as Brexit fears ease – business live | Pound and shares soar as Brexit fears ease – business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 1.07pm BST | |
| 13:07 | |
| The Brexit referendum is already the biggest political betting event in Betfair’s history (it was founded in 1999). | |
| Betfair spokesperson Naomi Totten reports that more than £40m has now been staked on the result, including one £315,000 wager on Remain. | |
| Totten says: | |
| “With just three days left until the vote the Betfair market momentum is now all behind Remain, which was backed as low as 1/5 this morning, with one customer backing it to the tune of £100k. | |
| This market continues to mimic the pattern of the Scottish Referendum, where historical confidence in the eventual ‘No’ vote slipped slightly ten days before referendum day only to resettle in the week of the vote.” | |
| One City fund manager, though, suggests investors shouldn’t get carried away... | |
| Less than £41m has been matched on Betfair Brexit. but people who manage billions are taking it as gospel. | |
| 1.04pm BST | |
| 13:04 | |
| City investment management company Charles Stanley has warned customers that they could find it harder to trade on Friday morning. | |
| They believe there will be massive demand to buy and sell shares and currencies, as the referendum result becomes clear. | |
| Here’s an email sent to clients today: | |
| This Thursday – June 23rd2016 – the country goes to the polls to decide on Britain’s future in Europe. It is a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’ vote but we are expecting considerable volumes being traded through the Charles Stanley Direct platform as investors react to the news. | |
| Whatever the results, we anticipate that we may experience higher volumes and more market volatility than usual on the 23rd June and in the days following the vote. The immediate impact is likely to be felt most directly by those of you wishing to trade shares during such market conditions. | |
| It is possible that market makers will limit the size of orders that can be placed online and be slow to answer phones. In practice this may mean that you are more likely to have to place a limit order instead of a market order and it may take longer for us to be able to place such trades. Foreign exchange rates could also witness fluctuations and this has the potential to impact overseas trades placed during this time. We ask for your understanding if you are thus affected. | |
| Our experienced Edinburgh-based helpdesk may also receive a surge in call and query volumes. We will respond to queries as quickly and thoroughly as possible, but once again we would be grateful for the forbearance of our clients in the event of unusually high volumes. | |
| 12.32pm BST | 12.32pm BST |
| 12:32 | 12:32 |
| Here’s the best-performing major shares in London this lunchtime: | Here’s the best-performing major shares in London this lunchtime: |
| 12.18pm BST | 12.18pm BST |
| 12:18 | 12:18 |
| Midday summary: FTSE 100 gains £50bn in relief rally | Midday summary: FTSE 100 gains £50bn in relief rally |
| Time for a catch-up. | Time for a catch-up. |
| London’s stock market is on a tear this morning, as investors react to signs that Britain is more likely to vote to stay in the European Union. | London’s stock market is on a tear this morning, as investors react to signs that Britain is more likely to vote to stay in the European Union. |
| The FTSE 100 index of leading shares has surged by 196 points, or 3.2%, by lunchtime in the City. That means around £50bn has been wiped back onto the index, which is on track for its biggest one-day rise since last August. | The FTSE 100 index of leading shares has surged by 196 points, or 3.2%, by lunchtime in the City. That means around £50bn has been wiped back onto the index, which is on track for its biggest one-day rise since last August. |
| Financial stocks are among the big risers, with Royal Bank of Scotland gaining 7.8% and Lloyds Banking Group up 6%. Building firms are also up, led by Taylor Wimpey (up 7%). | Financial stocks are among the big risers, with Royal Bank of Scotland gaining 7.8% and Lloyds Banking Group up 6%. Building firms are also up, led by Taylor Wimpey (up 7%). |
| Traders are citing weekend polls, showing a pick-up in support for the Remain campaign in the last few days. Three polls gave Remain a small lead, and one had the two sides tied. | Traders are citing weekend polls, showing a pick-up in support for the Remain campaign in the last few days. Three polls gave Remain a small lead, and one had the two sides tied. |
| Mihir Kapadia, CEO at Sun Global Investments, explains: | Mihir Kapadia, CEO at Sun Global Investments, explains: |
| “Today’s markets opened with a strong risk-on sentiment as news over the weekend suggests that the Remain camp is gaining momentum in the UK ahead of this week’s EU referendum”. | “Today’s markets opened with a strong risk-on sentiment as news over the weekend suggests that the Remain camp is gaining momentum in the UK ahead of this week’s EU referendum”. |
| Betfair, the online gambling site, reports that the ‘implied odds’ of the UK remaining in the EU have risen to around 77%. | Betfair, the online gambling site, reports that the ‘implied odds’ of the UK remaining in the EU have risen to around 77%. |
| This has forced some investors to cut insurance which they’d taken out against Brexit. | This has forced some investors to cut insurance which they’d taken out against Brexit. |
| Wow. 4.4 now. Brexit now a 23% chance. pic.twitter.com/dHnvpaCqEm | Wow. 4.4 now. Brexit now a 23% chance. pic.twitter.com/dHnvpaCqEm |
| Sterling is also bouncing back, and on track for its biggest one-day rise since 2009. | Sterling is also bouncing back, and on track for its biggest one-day rise since 2009. |
| The pound is up by 1.8% right now at $1.4622 against the US dollar, a gain of over 2.5 cents. | The pound is up by 1.8% right now at $1.4622 against the US dollar, a gain of over 2.5 cents. |
| Analysts at RBC Capital Markets have suggested that some voters are returning to the ‘status quo’, and deciding against Brexit. | Analysts at RBC Capital Markets have suggested that some voters are returning to the ‘status quo’, and deciding against Brexit. |
| Others have warned, though, that there could be further twists before Thursday’s vote. | Others have warned, though, that there could be further twists before Thursday’s vote. |
| Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, | Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, |
| ‘Waves from the Brexit vote are buffeting the UK stock market, tossing it up and down as the opinion polls shift this way and that. Until the vote is over we can expect more price swings, as markets struggle to price in a unique event that carries with it such a high degree of uncertainty. | ‘Waves from the Brexit vote are buffeting the UK stock market, tossing it up and down as the opinion polls shift this way and that. Until the vote is over we can expect more price swings, as markets struggle to price in a unique event that carries with it such a high degree of uncertainty. |
| If you want to get an idea of what stocks will do well in the event of a vote to stay in the UK, it’s worth taking a look at today’s FTSE leader board. The market has clearly identified financials and house builders as beneficiaries of a vote to remain in the UK, with a Sterling rally also indicating how the currency might move if we vote to remain in Europe. | If you want to get an idea of what stocks will do well in the event of a vote to stay in the UK, it’s worth taking a look at today’s FTSE leader board. The market has clearly identified financials and house builders as beneficiaries of a vote to remain in the UK, with a Sterling rally also indicating how the currency might move if we vote to remain in Europe. |
| The move comes after David Cameron urged the public to “stay and fight” in the EU last night. | The move comes after David Cameron urged the public to “stay and fight” in the EU last night. |
| Overnight, a clutch of Nobel-prize winning economists warned against Brexit. | Overnight, a clutch of Nobel-prize winning economists warned against Brexit. |
| And the head of Germany’s trade body has warned that it would be a ‘catastrophe’ if Britain left the EU. | And the head of Germany’s trade body has warned that it would be a ‘catastrophe’ if Britain left the EU. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.19pm BST | at 12.19pm BST |
| 11.55am BST | 11.55am BST |
| 11:55 | 11:55 |
| Here’s a handy chart, showing how the share prices of Europe’s largest 600 companies (dark blue) have tracked the twists and turns in the EU referendum race. | Here’s a handy chart, showing how the share prices of Europe’s largest 600 companies (dark blue) have tracked the twists and turns in the EU referendum race. |
| Europe's stock markets rise and fall with the odds on a #UKreferendum #Remain vote - @Reuters #Brexit #EUref #oil pic.twitter.com/5gLUIsUiGx | Europe's stock markets rise and fall with the odds on a #UKreferendum #Remain vote - @Reuters #Brexit #EUref #oil pic.twitter.com/5gLUIsUiGx |
| 11.29am BST | 11.29am BST |
| 11:29 | 11:29 |
| The latest opinion polls are prompting some international investors to readjust their views on the EU referendum - for the second time this month. | The latest opinion polls are prompting some international investors to readjust their views on the EU referendum - for the second time this month. |
| Initially, the City had broadly expected the Remain campaign to win the vote, before polls in early June showed Leave taking the lead. | Initially, the City had broadly expected the Remain campaign to win the vote, before polls in early June showed Leave taking the lead. |
| So polls over the weekend, suggesting it’s neck-and-neck again, have triggered today’s rally. | So polls over the weekend, suggesting it’s neck-and-neck again, have triggered today’s rally. |
| Christian Gattiker, head of research at Julius Baer in Zurich, told Bloomberg that sentiment has shifted: | Christian Gattiker, head of research at Julius Baer in Zurich, told Bloomberg that sentiment has shifted: |
| “We were steering into a clear Brexit scenario and now we’ve seen a counter move which makes it more balanced, more in line with what investors thought in the first place. ” | “We were steering into a clear Brexit scenario and now we’ve seen a counter move which makes it more balanced, more in line with what investors thought in the first place. ” |
| So, some traders who had protected themselves against Brexit are now ‘unwinding’ those positions - helping to drive the pound up. | So, some traders who had protected themselves against Brexit are now ‘unwinding’ those positions - helping to drive the pound up. |
| Jasper Lawler of CMC Markets explains: | Jasper Lawler of CMC Markets explains: |
| The bias in the city has generally been that a Remain vote is more likely, but polls pointing otherwise meant that assertion needed to be hedged. The unusually large jump in Sterling on Monday is in part, those hedges being unwound. | The bias in the city has generally been that a Remain vote is more likely, but polls pointing otherwise meant that assertion needed to be hedged. The unusually large jump in Sterling on Monday is in part, those hedges being unwound. |
| European equity markets are rallying this morning. Not impressed by #Brexit risk. pic.twitter.com/tCItjrIC7J | European equity markets are rallying this morning. Not impressed by #Brexit risk. pic.twitter.com/tCItjrIC7J |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.29am BST | at 11.29am BST |
| 10.21am BST | 10.21am BST |
| 10:21 | 10:21 |
| The US stock market is also expected to open strongly, in around four hours time: | The US stock market is also expected to open strongly, in around four hours time: |
| DJIA points to 200-point gain as polls show Brexit support weakening https://t.co/yJ2n03TYcx | DJIA points to 200-point gain as polls show Brexit support weakening https://t.co/yJ2n03TYcx |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.21am BST | at 10.21am BST |
| 10.14am BST | 10.14am BST |
| 10:14 | 10:14 |
| Shares and sterling continue to rally | Shares and sterling continue to rally |
| The rally is gathering pace, as investors worldwide shake off their recent fears. | The rally is gathering pace, as investors worldwide shake off their recent fears. |
| After two hours of trading, the FTSE 100 is up a mighty 160 points, or 2.5%, at 6181. | After two hours of trading, the FTSE 100 is up a mighty 160 points, or 2.5%, at 6181. |
| That’s its highest level since June 10th, and its biggest once-day rally since 17 February. | That’s its highest level since June 10th, and its biggest once-day rally since 17 February. |
| And the pound is continuing to bounce - up almost three cents at $1.4628, and well away from the two-month lows ($1.40) hit last week. | And the pound is continuing to bounce - up almost three cents at $1.4628, and well away from the two-month lows ($1.40) hit last week. |
| Traders are continuing to respond to polls showing a pick-up in support for Remain. | Traders are continuing to respond to polls showing a pick-up in support for Remain. |
| Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, comments: | Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, comments: |
| It is clear that the ‘remain’ campaign has suffered from a distinct lack of a positive message, with critics accusing the campaign leaders of fearmongering. | It is clear that the ‘remain’ campaign has suffered from a distinct lack of a positive message, with critics accusing the campaign leaders of fearmongering. |
| However, in some ways, it took the tragic death of Jo Cox for people to wake up to the positive message that she purveyed on the benefits of integration and tolerance. Perhaps it is a coincidence, but that incident has seemingly formed a turning point for the ‘remain’ campaign, with the improved fortunes of both polls and the pound ever since. | However, in some ways, it took the tragic death of Jo Cox for people to wake up to the positive message that she purveyed on the benefits of integration and tolerance. Perhaps it is a coincidence, but that incident has seemingly formed a turning point for the ‘remain’ campaign, with the improved fortunes of both polls and the pound ever since. |
| Reminder, our main EU referendum liveblog will be covering the recall of parliament today to pay tribute to Jo Cox MP: | Reminder, our main EU referendum liveblog will be covering the recall of parliament today to pay tribute to Jo Cox MP: |
| Related: EU referendum morning briefing: parliament recalled to pay tribute to Jo Cox | Related: EU referendum morning briefing: parliament recalled to pay tribute to Jo Cox |
| 9.41am BST | 9.41am BST |
| 09:41 | 09:41 |
| German trade body warns against Brexit 'poison' | German trade body warns against Brexit 'poison' |
| The head of Germany’s BGA trade federation has declared that Brexit would be a ‘catastrophe’ for Europe’s economy. | The head of Germany’s BGA trade federation has declared that Brexit would be a ‘catastrophe’ for Europe’s economy. |
| Anton Boerner told a press conference in Berlin that: | Anton Boerner told a press conference in Berlin that: |
| “A Brexit would lead to uncertainty and a loss of trust over several years. This is poison for the economy in Britain, but also for Europe as a whole. | “A Brexit would lead to uncertainty and a loss of trust over several years. This is poison for the economy in Britain, but also for Europe as a whole. |
| Nobody will benefit from an exit. On the contrary, it would be a catastrophe for everybody and especially for us in Germany. There will be no winners, but only losers.” | Nobody will benefit from an exit. On the contrary, it would be a catastrophe for everybody and especially for us in Germany. There will be no winners, but only losers.” |
| Last night, 10 top Nobel Prize-winning economists predicted that Brexit would create major uncertainty, hurting global trade. | Last night, 10 top Nobel Prize-winning economists predicted that Brexit would create major uncertainty, hurting global trade. |
| Unprecedented 10 Nobel Prize winning economists warn of long term harm of EU exit. Time to listen to the experts ...https://t.co/i7c8BGfcXY | Unprecedented 10 Nobel Prize winning economists warn of long term harm of EU exit. Time to listen to the experts ...https://t.co/i7c8BGfcXY |
| UKIP’s Nigel Farage, though, told the BBC this morning that Brexit wouldn’t be a major shock to the economy as European countries would be keen to strike a trade deal quickly. | UKIP’s Nigel Farage, though, told the BBC this morning that Brexit wouldn’t be a major shock to the economy as European countries would be keen to strike a trade deal quickly. |
| 9.27am BST | 9.27am BST |
| 09:27 | 09:27 |
| GBPUSD up 2.15% today, up about 4.5% since its Thursday lows 🚀🚀🚀 | GBPUSD up 2.15% today, up about 4.5% since its Thursday lows 🚀🚀🚀 |
| 9.20am BST | 9.20am BST |
| 09:20 | 09:20 |
| Last night, prime minister David Cameron tried to persuade voters to back his campaign to remain in a reformed European Union. | Last night, prime minister David Cameron tried to persuade voters to back his campaign to remain in a reformed European Union. |
| The PM told a special edition of Question Time that he believes Britain should “stay and fight”, rather than quitting the EU. | The PM told a special edition of Question Time that he believes Britain should “stay and fight”, rather than quitting the EU. |
| At one point, Cameron declared: | At one point, Cameron declared: |
| “At my office, I sit two yards away from the cabinet room where Winston Churchill decided in May 1940 to fight on against Hitler, the greatest decision that anyone has ever made in our country. | “At my office, I sit two yards away from the cabinet room where Winston Churchill decided in May 1940 to fight on against Hitler, the greatest decision that anyone has ever made in our country. |
| Ana Thaker, market economist at PhillipCapital UK, reckons this is helping to push the pound up today: | Ana Thaker, market economist at PhillipCapital UK, reckons this is helping to push the pound up today: |
| Sterling has pared any losses we saw last week. PM Cameron appeared on Question Time yesterday, answering questions from the public regarding the impending referendum and support for ‘Remain’ has seen the currency strengthen. | Sterling has pared any losses we saw last week. PM Cameron appeared on Question Time yesterday, answering questions from the public regarding the impending referendum and support for ‘Remain’ has seen the currency strengthen. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.20am BST | at 9.20am BST |
| 9.12am BST | 9.12am BST |
| 09:12 | 09:12 |
| Despite today’s rally, the markets are still in a relatively precarious position, says Connor Campbell of City firm SpreadEx: | Despite today’s rally, the markets are still in a relatively precarious position, says Connor Campbell of City firm SpreadEx: |
| The slightest sign that the public are shifting in favour of Vote Leave will likely see today’s gains rapidly dissipate, while an intensification of pre-referendum nerves as the week goes on could see markets chop and change even without any new polling news. | The slightest sign that the public are shifting in favour of Vote Leave will likely see today’s gains rapidly dissipate, while an intensification of pre-referendum nerves as the week goes on could see markets chop and change even without any new polling news. |
| 9.00am BST | 9.00am BST |
| 09:00 | 09:00 |
| Pound on track for best day since 2009 | Pound on track for best day since 2009 |
| Sterling is on course to post its strongest day since the aftermath of the financial crisis. | Sterling is on course to post its strongest day since the aftermath of the financial crisis. |
| The pound is holding onto its early gains, and is up 1.6% against the US dollar at $1.458 right now. | The pound is holding onto its early gains, and is up 1.6% against the US dollar at $1.458 right now. |
| That’s a really chunky move for sterling – according to Reuters data, such a big swing hasn’t happened since 2009. | That’s a really chunky move for sterling – according to Reuters data, such a big swing hasn’t happened since 2009. |
| Sterling +1.7% vs dollar in early trading today, on track for its biggest one-day rise since 15 October, 2009. pic.twitter.com/64ZZssCjo9 | Sterling +1.7% vs dollar in early trading today, on track for its biggest one-day rise since 15 October, 2009. pic.twitter.com/64ZZssCjo9 |
| Our friends at fastFT confirm that today’s rally is one of the biggest of the last decade: | Our friends at fastFT confirm that today’s rally is one of the biggest of the last decade: |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.29am BST | at 9.29am BST |
| 8.53am BST | 8.53am BST |
| 08:53 | 08:53 |
| There are still two referendum debates to look forward to... | There are still two referendum debates to look forward to... |
| What to look out for this week #BREXIT pic.twitter.com/g2f9F39sVH | What to look out for this week #BREXIT pic.twitter.com/g2f9F39sVH |
| 8.46am BST | 8.46am BST |
| 08:46 | 08:46 |
| Today’s stock market rally looks decisive, but we’ll probably see more market turmoil in the next few days | Today’s stock market rally looks decisive, but we’ll probably see more market turmoil in the next few days |
| Kit Juckes, the experienced foreign exchange expert at French bank Société Générale, explains: | Kit Juckes, the experienced foreign exchange expert at French bank Société Générale, explains: |
| Polls remain very even, with the FT’s poll tracker showing both camps at 44%. | Polls remain very even, with the FT’s poll tracker showing both camps at 44%. |
| The market will surely gyrate some more in the next few days as any shift in that position triggers an exaggerated reaction, not just for sterling but for wider risk sentiment. | The market will surely gyrate some more in the next few days as any shift in that position triggers an exaggerated reaction, not just for sterling but for wider risk sentiment. |
| tighter than a tight thing on national tights day. https://t.co/2l8JfNx9NA pic.twitter.com/UnYgu75o8D | tighter than a tight thing on national tights day. https://t.co/2l8JfNx9NA pic.twitter.com/UnYgu75o8D |