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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jun/20/pound-shares-markets-eu-referendum-brexit-fears-business-live
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Pound and shares soar as Brexit fears ease – business live | Pound and shares soar as Brexit fears ease – business live |
(about 1 hour later) | |
11.55am BST | |
11:55 | |
Here’s a handy chart, showing how the share prices of Europe’s largest 600 companies (dark blue) have tracked the twists and turns in the EU referendum race. | |
Europe's stock markets rise and fall with the odds on a #UKreferendum #Remain vote - @Reuters #Brexit #EUref #oil pic.twitter.com/5gLUIsUiGx | |
11.29am BST | |
11:29 | |
The latest opinion polls are prompting some international investors to readjust their views on the EU referendum - for the second time this month. | |
Initially, the City had broadly expected the Remain campaign to win the vote, before polls in early June showed Leave taking the lead. | |
So polls over the weekend, suggesting it’s neck-and-neck again, have triggered today’s rally. | |
Christian Gattiker, head of research at Julius Baer in Zurich, told Bloomberg that sentiment has shifted: | |
“We were steering into a clear Brexit scenario and now we’ve seen a counter move which makes it more balanced, more in line with what investors thought in the first place. ” | |
So, some traders who had protected themselves against Brexit are now ‘unwinding’ those positions - helping to drive the pound up. | |
Jasper Lawler of CMC Markets explains: | |
The bias in the city has generally been that a Remain vote is more likely, but polls pointing otherwise meant that assertion needed to be hedged. The unusually large jump in Sterling on Monday is in part, those hedges being unwound. | |
European equity markets are rallying this morning. Not impressed by #Brexit risk. pic.twitter.com/tCItjrIC7J | |
Updated | |
at 11.29am BST | |
10.21am BST | 10.21am BST |
10:21 | 10:21 |
The US stock market is also expected to open strongly, in around four hours time: | The US stock market is also expected to open strongly, in around four hours time: |
DJIA points to 200-point gain as polls show Brexit support weakening https://t.co/yJ2n03TYcx | DJIA points to 200-point gain as polls show Brexit support weakening https://t.co/yJ2n03TYcx |
Updated | Updated |
at 10.21am BST | at 10.21am BST |
10.14am BST | 10.14am BST |
10:14 | 10:14 |
Shares and sterling continue to rally | Shares and sterling continue to rally |
The rally is gathering pace, as investors worldwide shake off their recent fears. | The rally is gathering pace, as investors worldwide shake off their recent fears. |
After two hours of trading, the FTSE 100 is up a mighty 160 points, or 2.5%, at 6181. | After two hours of trading, the FTSE 100 is up a mighty 160 points, or 2.5%, at 6181. |
That’s its highest level since June 10th, and its biggest once-day rally since 17 February. | That’s its highest level since June 10th, and its biggest once-day rally since 17 February. |
And the pound is continuing to bounce - up almost three cents at $1.4628, and well away from the two-month lows ($1.40) hit last week. | And the pound is continuing to bounce - up almost three cents at $1.4628, and well away from the two-month lows ($1.40) hit last week. |
Traders are continuing to respond to polls showing a pick-up in support for Remain. | Traders are continuing to respond to polls showing a pick-up in support for Remain. |
Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, comments: | Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, comments: |
It is clear that the ‘remain’ campaign has suffered from a distinct lack of a positive message, with critics accusing the campaign leaders of fearmongering. | It is clear that the ‘remain’ campaign has suffered from a distinct lack of a positive message, with critics accusing the campaign leaders of fearmongering. |
However, in some ways, it took the tragic death of Jo Cox for people to wake up to the positive message that she purveyed on the benefits of integration and tolerance. Perhaps it is a coincidence, but that incident has seemingly formed a turning point for the ‘remain’ campaign, with the improved fortunes of both polls and the pound ever since. | However, in some ways, it took the tragic death of Jo Cox for people to wake up to the positive message that she purveyed on the benefits of integration and tolerance. Perhaps it is a coincidence, but that incident has seemingly formed a turning point for the ‘remain’ campaign, with the improved fortunes of both polls and the pound ever since. |
Reminder, our main EU referendum liveblog will be covering the recall of parliament today to pay tribute to Jo Cox MP: | Reminder, our main EU referendum liveblog will be covering the recall of parliament today to pay tribute to Jo Cox MP: |
Related: EU referendum morning briefing: parliament recalled to pay tribute to Jo Cox | Related: EU referendum morning briefing: parliament recalled to pay tribute to Jo Cox |
9.41am BST | 9.41am BST |
09:41 | 09:41 |
German trade body warns against Brexit 'poison' | German trade body warns against Brexit 'poison' |
The head of Germany’s BGA trade federation has declared that Brexit would be a ‘catastrophe’ for Europe’s economy. | The head of Germany’s BGA trade federation has declared that Brexit would be a ‘catastrophe’ for Europe’s economy. |
Anton Boerner told a press conference in Berlin that: | Anton Boerner told a press conference in Berlin that: |
“A Brexit would lead to uncertainty and a loss of trust over several years. This is poison for the economy in Britain, but also for Europe as a whole. | “A Brexit would lead to uncertainty and a loss of trust over several years. This is poison for the economy in Britain, but also for Europe as a whole. |
Nobody will benefit from an exit. On the contrary, it would be a catastrophe for everybody and especially for us in Germany. There will be no winners, but only losers.” | Nobody will benefit from an exit. On the contrary, it would be a catastrophe for everybody and especially for us in Germany. There will be no winners, but only losers.” |
Last night, 10 top Nobel Prize-winning economists predicted that Brexit would create major uncertainty, hurting global trade. | Last night, 10 top Nobel Prize-winning economists predicted that Brexit would create major uncertainty, hurting global trade. |
Unprecedented 10 Nobel Prize winning economists warn of long term harm of EU exit. Time to listen to the experts ...https://t.co/i7c8BGfcXY | Unprecedented 10 Nobel Prize winning economists warn of long term harm of EU exit. Time to listen to the experts ...https://t.co/i7c8BGfcXY |
UKIP’s Nigel Farage, though, told the BBC this morning that Brexit wouldn’t be a major shock to the economy as European countries would be keen to strike a trade deal quickly. | UKIP’s Nigel Farage, though, told the BBC this morning that Brexit wouldn’t be a major shock to the economy as European countries would be keen to strike a trade deal quickly. |
9.27am BST | 9.27am BST |
09:27 | 09:27 |
GBPUSD up 2.15% today, up about 4.5% since its Thursday lows 🚀🚀🚀 | GBPUSD up 2.15% today, up about 4.5% since its Thursday lows 🚀🚀🚀 |
9.20am BST | 9.20am BST |
09:20 | 09:20 |
Last night, prime minister David Cameron tried to persuade voters to back his campaign to remain in a reformed European Union. | Last night, prime minister David Cameron tried to persuade voters to back his campaign to remain in a reformed European Union. |
The PM told a special edition of Question Time that he believes Britain should “stay and fight”, rather than quitting the EU. | The PM told a special edition of Question Time that he believes Britain should “stay and fight”, rather than quitting the EU. |
At one point, Cameron declared: | At one point, Cameron declared: |
“At my office, I sit two yards away from the cabinet room where Winston Churchill decided in May 1940 to fight on against Hitler, the greatest decision that anyone has ever made in our country. | “At my office, I sit two yards away from the cabinet room where Winston Churchill decided in May 1940 to fight on against Hitler, the greatest decision that anyone has ever made in our country. |
Ana Thaker, market economist at PhillipCapital UK, reckons this is helping to push the pound up today: | Ana Thaker, market economist at PhillipCapital UK, reckons this is helping to push the pound up today: |
Sterling has pared any losses we saw last week. PM Cameron appeared on Question Time yesterday, answering questions from the public regarding the impending referendum and support for ‘Remain’ has seen the currency strengthen. | Sterling has pared any losses we saw last week. PM Cameron appeared on Question Time yesterday, answering questions from the public regarding the impending referendum and support for ‘Remain’ has seen the currency strengthen. |
Updated | Updated |
at 9.20am BST | at 9.20am BST |
9.12am BST | 9.12am BST |
09:12 | 09:12 |
Despite today’s rally, the markets are still in a relatively precarious position, says Connor Campbell of City firm SpreadEx: | Despite today’s rally, the markets are still in a relatively precarious position, says Connor Campbell of City firm SpreadEx: |
The slightest sign that the public are shifting in favour of Vote Leave will likely see today’s gains rapidly dissipate, while an intensification of pre-referendum nerves as the week goes on could see markets chop and change even without any new polling news. | The slightest sign that the public are shifting in favour of Vote Leave will likely see today’s gains rapidly dissipate, while an intensification of pre-referendum nerves as the week goes on could see markets chop and change even without any new polling news. |
9.00am BST | 9.00am BST |
09:00 | 09:00 |
Pound on track for best day since 2009 | Pound on track for best day since 2009 |
Sterling is on course to post its strongest day since the aftermath of the financial crisis. | Sterling is on course to post its strongest day since the aftermath of the financial crisis. |
The pound is holding onto its early gains, and is up 1.6% against the US dollar at $1.458 right now. | The pound is holding onto its early gains, and is up 1.6% against the US dollar at $1.458 right now. |
That’s a really chunky move for sterling – according to Reuters data, such a big swing hasn’t happened since 2009. | That’s a really chunky move for sterling – according to Reuters data, such a big swing hasn’t happened since 2009. |
Sterling +1.7% vs dollar in early trading today, on track for its biggest one-day rise since 15 October, 2009. pic.twitter.com/64ZZssCjo9 | Sterling +1.7% vs dollar in early trading today, on track for its biggest one-day rise since 15 October, 2009. pic.twitter.com/64ZZssCjo9 |
Our friends at fastFT confirm that today’s rally is one of the biggest of the last decade: | Our friends at fastFT confirm that today’s rally is one of the biggest of the last decade: |
Updated | Updated |
at 9.29am BST | at 9.29am BST |
8.53am BST | 8.53am BST |
08:53 | 08:53 |
There are still two referendum debates to look forward to... | There are still two referendum debates to look forward to... |
What to look out for this week #BREXIT pic.twitter.com/g2f9F39sVH | What to look out for this week #BREXIT pic.twitter.com/g2f9F39sVH |
8.46am BST | 8.46am BST |
08:46 | 08:46 |
Today’s stock market rally looks decisive, but we’ll probably see more market turmoil in the next few days | Today’s stock market rally looks decisive, but we’ll probably see more market turmoil in the next few days |
Kit Juckes, the experienced foreign exchange expert at French bank Société Générale, explains: | Kit Juckes, the experienced foreign exchange expert at French bank Société Générale, explains: |
Polls remain very even, with the FT’s poll tracker showing both camps at 44%. | Polls remain very even, with the FT’s poll tracker showing both camps at 44%. |
The market will surely gyrate some more in the next few days as any shift in that position triggers an exaggerated reaction, not just for sterling but for wider risk sentiment. | The market will surely gyrate some more in the next few days as any shift in that position triggers an exaggerated reaction, not just for sterling but for wider risk sentiment. |
tighter than a tight thing on national tights day. https://t.co/2l8JfNx9NA pic.twitter.com/UnYgu75o8D | tighter than a tight thing on national tights day. https://t.co/2l8JfNx9NA pic.twitter.com/UnYgu75o8D |