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Syria and Some Rebel Groups Agree to a Russia-Backed Truce New Cease-Fire Begins in Syria, but Violations Are Reported Within Hours
(about 5 hours later)
BEIRUT, Lebanon — A cease-fire between Syria’s government and the weakened rebel forces arrayed against it took effect early Friday, but violations were reported within hours. BEIRUT, Lebanon — A cease-fire between Syria’s government and the weakened rebel forces arrayed against it took effect early Friday, but within hours, violations were reported.
Still, the agreement, announced on Thursday by the Syrian government’s strongest backer, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, could signal a potential turning point in a nearly six-year conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and defied repeated efforts to end it. Still, the agreement — announced on Thursday by the Syrian government’s strongest backer, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia — could be a turning point in a nearly six-year conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and defied repeated efforts to end it.
Many past efforts to quell the fighting, brokered under the auspices of the United Nations, have failed, and Mr. Putin himself pronounced the deal “fragile.” But the rebels’ loss of their stronghold in eastern Aleppo this month was a major blow to their movement to oust President Bashar al-Assad, leaving them without footholds in Syria’s largest cities. That may have prodded them toward a compromise and given Russia a chance to take the political initiative. The agreement highlighted Russia’s status as the main international player in Syria. The United States, which has supported rebel factions, welcomed the truce but played no role in brokering it.
The agreement appeared shaky from the start, however, with the parties already disagreeing on issues that have sunk past initiatives, like the fate of Mr. Assad. The spokesman for Ahrar al-Sham, one of the largest rebel groups involved in the talks, wrote on Twitter that his group had “reservations” about the agreement and had not signed it, throwing the group’s compliance into question. The accord appeared shaky even before it took effect, with the parties disagreeing on issues that have sunk past peace plans, like the fate of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad. A spokesman for Ahrar al-Sham, one of the largest rebel groups, wrote on Twitter that his group had reservations about the agreement and had not signed it, throwing its compliance into question.
The agreement was negotiated by officials from Russia, Iran and Turkey with Mr. Assad’s government and rebel representatives. Before the end of January, as part of the deal, the factions will meet for talks in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan — a setting that could hardly be farther from Washington or New York. Apparently, the group still had not signed when the cease-fire began at midnight. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks the conflict, said in a statement on Twitter early Friday that rebels had breached the cease-fire in Hama Province. A spokesman for the rebel group Jaish al-Nasr told Reuters that government forces had violated the truce, shelling areas in Atshan and Skeik, villages in Idlib Province, which borders Hama.
Mr. Putin later spoke by telephone with Mr. Assad, who “expressed willingness to comply” with the accords, according to the Kremlin’s website. They agreed that the negotiations in Astana would be an important step toward resolving the crisis, it said. Even before the new clashes were reported, Ahrar al-Sham’s status and other issues had left many analysts skeptical.
The Obama administration, which has resisted greater involvement in what it sees as a largely intractable conflict, welcomed the news. “Any effort that stops the violence, saves lives, and creates the conditions for renewed and productive political negotiations would be welcome,” said the State Department’s deputy spokesman, Mark C. Toner, reiterating its view that “there is no military solution to this nearly six-year crisis.” “It looks like the Russians are trying to jam this through and make it happen through pure positive thinking and momentum,” said Sam Heller, a fellow at the Century Foundation who studies Syria. “All indications are that there are still major unresolved questions and issues that will sabotage its implementation.”
If the agreement holds, it could solidify Mr. Assad’s grip on the country’s western ridge and lead to a joint effort by Russia and the United States against Islamic State militants. But that is a big if, given the number of parties involved, their competing interests and the scope of the fighting. Many past efforts to quell the fighting, including two agreements this year between Russia and the United States, have failed, and Mr. Putin himself called the deal fragile. But in recent months, major shifts have occurred in the war and among the foreign powers embroiled in it, creating an opening for the new agreement.
Joshua M. Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, was one of many skeptical observers. “The truce will not last because most militias have not signed onto it, but it is important because Turkey is putting the militias on notice that its border will be closing to them and that the world will turn its backs on the military effort to make Assad step aside,” he said. The rebels’ loss of eastern Aleppo this month was a major blow to their movement, leaving them without footholds in any of Syria’s largest cities. That has made it harder for their foreign backers to see them as a realistic alternative to Mr. Assad. Even Turkey, which is a longtime supporter of the opposition and is supposed to ensure rebel compliance with the cease-fire, has backed away from its demand that Mr. Assad step down.
“This points toward the ‘political’ solution that Assad and the Russians have been demanding, which is that the world must stop supporting the insurgency,” he continued. “The regime will negotiate amnesty with militias it can deal with and will kill or chase out of Syria all those who refuse to sue for peace or whom it considers unredeemable or jihadists.” In addition, the Obama administration has reduced its engagement in Syrian diplomacy, while President-elect Donald J. Trump has vowed to cut support for the rebels and to work with Mr. Putin to fight jihadists.
Of the seven rebel groups said to be signers of the deal — the precise details still were not clear Thursday evening — five have gotten American military aid. The groups hold territory in Syria’s northwest, along the border with Turkey; east of the capital, Damascus; and in the south, near the border with Jordan. Most are mainstream groups, but the list also included Ahrar al-Sham, a hard-line Islamist group that has close operational ties with Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria. As the United States has stepped back, Russia has stepped forward. Mr. Assad’s forces, ground down by years of war, have become heavily dependent on Russian military support, giving Russia the leverage to push Mr. Assad toward new talks.
Explicitly not included, according to statements by the Syrian Army and the Turkish Foreign Ministry, are the jihadists: the Islamic State, which controls territory in eastern Syria and across the border with Iraq; the Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda, which is strongest in the country’s northwest; and “groups linked to them.” But after nearly six years of a war that has drawn in many foreign powers, the issues to be resolved are many, and cracks in the agreement surfaced late Thursday, before the cease-fire took effect.
How to define groups “linked” to the jihadists will be a thorny issue — the Assad government labels all its opponents “terrorists” — along with Turkey’s insistence that the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which backs Mr. Assad, withdraw from Syria. Under the agreement, Iran is supposed to help monitor compliance by Mr. Assad’s government and by allied Shiite militias, including Hezbollah, he said. Left unresolved was the future role of Mr. Assad. Many rebels have vowed to reject any deal that would leave him in power. Some even called the cease-fire a time to regroup for future battles.
There were reports on Thursday of new aerial bombings in eastern Ghouta, a suburb of Damascus, but that was before the announcement in Moscow. Fifteen people were killed, including six children, according to a group that monitors the conflict. “The cease-fire is a new opportunity for the revolutionaries to get their house in order and prepare for all coming possibilities to topple the regime, militarily and politically,” Ammar Sakkar, a spokesman for a prominent rebel faction, wrote on Twitter.
Past cease-fire accords have repeatedly failed, including an agreement in September between Russia and the United States to allow humanitarian aid into besieged areas. The deal quickly fell apart. Also unresolved was the presence in Syria of fighters from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and other Shiite militias, which gave substantial support to Mr. Assad’s forces in the battle for Aleppo. On Thursday, Mevlut Cavusoglu, the Turkish foreign minister, said they should leave the country, a demand the Syrian government is likely to resist.
While the new agreement followed the same formula as previous ones, the dynamics on the ground have changed since forces loyal to Mr. Assad took back control of eastern Aleppo, emboldening Moscow and Damascus and leaving the opposition with little leverage in negotiations. Excluded from the cease-fire, according to the Syrian Army, are the jihadists: the Islamic State, which controls territory in eastern Syria and across the border in Iraq; the Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda, which is strongest in the country’s northwest; and “groups linked to them.”
Russia, Mr. Assad’s backer, and Turkey, which supports some of the rebel groups, will guarantee the truce. Military operations are to halt nationwide as well. How to define groups “linked” to the jihadists will be a thorny issue. The Syrian government has portrayed all of its opponents as terrorists.
Three agreements were signed, Mr. Putin said: the cease-fire itself; an agreement detailing how it would be carried out; and a third expressing readiness to begin peace talks for a settlement to the conflict. The agreement was reached in the Turkish capital, Ankara, in talks that included Turkish and Russian officials and rebel representatives. It called for a cease-fire across Syria to begin at midnight. That would clear the way for peace talks in late January in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan.
The Russian defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, said that the truce would include 62,000 opposition fighters across Syria, and that the Russian military had set up a hotline with its Turkish counterpart to allow immediate communication about the truce and whether it was being met. That is a far cry from Geneva, where previous talks hosted by the United Nations have been held, but the office of the United Nations special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, issued a statement cautiously welcoming the truce.
In a brief statement, the Syrian Army said the cease-fire came “after the victories and successes that our armed forces accomplished in more than one place,” an allusion to the recent retaking of Aleppo by government forces and allied militias. The Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said he hoped Mr. Trump would join the efforts after he takes office on Jan. 20.
Ahmad al-Saoud, a spokesman for a C.I.A.-backed rebel group that is included in the agreement, said in a phone interview that meetings about the cease-fire were continuing in Ankara, the Turkish capital. The Syrian government described the cease-fire as a natural follow-up to “the victories and successes that our armed forces accomplished,” a clear reference to Aleppo. Mr. Putin spoke on Thursday with Mr. Assad, who “expressed willingness to comply” with the accord, according to the Kremlin’s website.
Mr. Putin said that the cease-fire meant that Russia could draw down its forces in Syria. He said once before, in March, that the bulk of Russian forces would come home, yet combat continued apace. The main thrust of the Russian effort is built around its air force, but the military also deployed some ground troops and special forces. The precise details of the deal were not clear Thursday night. Russia said seven rebel groups had signed it. Together, they hold territory in Syria’s northwest, along the border with Turkey; east of the capital, Damascus; and in the south, near Jordan’s border. Five of them are mainline rebel groups that have received covert military aid through a program run by the C.I.A. and its counterparts in allied countries. The list also includes Ahrar al-Sham, a hard-line Islamist group with close operational ties to Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria.
“I agree with the Defense Ministry proposal to scale back our military presence in Syria,” Mr. Putin said. “We will certainly continue our fight against international terrorism, of course, and will continue to support the legitimate Syrian government in its fight against terrorism.” A spokesman for the group denied that it had signed the agreement.
Russian officials said the talks were not meant to supplant negotiations in Geneva under the purview of the United Nations. The Obama administration, which has resisted greater involvement in what it sees as an intractable conflict, welcomed the news. “Any effort that stops the violence, saves lives and creates the conditions for renewed and productive political negotiations would be welcome,” said the State Department’s deputy spokesman, Mark C. Toner.
The office of the United Nations special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, a veteran of the failures to end the war through diplomacy, issued a statement cautiously welcoming the truce announcement. If the agreement holds, it may solidify Mr. Assad’s grip on the country’s western ridge and lead to a joint effort by Russia and the United States against Islamic State militants. But that is a big if, given the number of parties involved, their competing interests and the scope of the fighting.
“The special envoy hopes that the implementation of the agreement will save civilian lives, facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance across Syria, and pave the way for productive talks in Astana,” the statement said. Aside from the politics of it, many Syrians hoped the truce would stop the violence that has become part of everyday life.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey called the new agreement a “historic opportunity” and a chance that “absolutely should not be lost.” “It is a way to stop the waterfall of blood that is happening in Syria,” said Obaida al-Omar, an antigovernment activist reached through Skype in a rebel-held part of Idlib Province.
President-elect Donald J. Trump has called President Obama’s Syria policies a failure and pushed to end support for Syrian rebels, vowing to make fighting terrorism virtually the entirety of his administration’s Syria policy. He said the miserable conditions there for Syrians displaced by the war had fueled hatred of Mr. Assad’s government.
Mr. Assad has called Mr. Trump “a natural ally” in the fight against terrorism, and the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said on Thursday that Mr. Trump’s administration would be welcome to join the peace process after the inauguration on Jan. 20. Idlib “is like a pot boiling with hatred for the regime in these terrible conditions of hunger and cold,” he said. “We hope that there are negotiations, but we hope that they don’t give up on demanding the fall of the regime.”
“I would hope that, after the Donald Trump administration takes office, it will also be able to join these efforts,” Mr. Lavrov said at the meeting with Mr. Putin, shown on state-run television. Mr. Putin said the cease-fire meant that Russia could draw down its forces in Syria. He said once before, in March, that the bulk of Russian forces would go home, yet combat continued.