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Syrian Government Announces Truce Backed by Russia and Turkey Syrian Government Announces Truce Backed by Russia and Turkey
(35 minutes later)
BEIRUT, Lebanon — The Syrian government and its most important ally, Russia, announced on Thursday a cease-fire agreement with Syrian rebels and with Turkey — a potential turning point in a civil war that has lasted nearly six years and claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.BEIRUT, Lebanon — The Syrian government and its most important ally, Russia, announced on Thursday a cease-fire agreement with Syrian rebels and with Turkey — a potential turning point in a civil war that has lasted nearly six years and claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
It remained to be seen if the agreement would take effect or hold, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia twice called it “fragile.” Previous attempts to quell the fighting, brokered under the auspices of the United Nations, have failed.It remained to be seen if the agreement would take effect or hold, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia twice called it “fragile.” Previous attempts to quell the fighting, brokered under the auspices of the United Nations, have failed.
But the rebels’ loss of their stronghold in eastern Aleppo this month was a major blow to their movement to oust President Bashar al-Assad, leaving them without footholds in Syria’s largest cities. That may have prodded them toward a compromise and given Russia a chance to consolidate Mr. Assad’s control through diplomacy.But the rebels’ loss of their stronghold in eastern Aleppo this month was a major blow to their movement to oust President Bashar al-Assad, leaving them without footholds in Syria’s largest cities. That may have prodded them toward a compromise and given Russia a chance to consolidate Mr. Assad’s control through diplomacy.
If the agreement holds, it could solidify Mr. Assad’s grip on the country’s western ridge and lead to a joint effort by Russia and the United States against Islamic State militants. But that is a big if, given the number of parties involved, their competing interests and the scope of the fighting.If the agreement holds, it could solidify Mr. Assad’s grip on the country’s western ridge and lead to a joint effort by Russia and the United States against Islamic State militants. But that is a big if, given the number of parties involved, their competing interests and the scope of the fighting.
It was not even clear which rebel groups were party to the agreement. Russia provided a list of seven, while a representative of one rebel faction that took part in the talks identified seven with slightly different names. (Five of the groups on the Russian list have received covert military support from the United States.)It was not even clear which rebel groups were party to the agreement. Russia provided a list of seven, while a representative of one rebel faction that took part in the talks identified seven with slightly different names. (Five of the groups on the Russian list have received covert military support from the United States.)
The groups that appeared on both lists hold territory in Syria’s northwest, along the border with Turkey; east of the capital, Damascus; and in the south, near the border with Jordan. Most are mainstream groups, but the list also included Ahrar al-Sham, a hard-line Islamist group that has close operational ties with Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria.The groups that appeared on both lists hold territory in Syria’s northwest, along the border with Turkey; east of the capital, Damascus; and in the south, near the border with Jordan. Most are mainstream groups, but the list also included Ahrar al-Sham, a hard-line Islamist group that has close operational ties with Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria.
Explicitly not included, according to statements by the Syrian Army and the Turkish Foreign Ministry, are the jihadists: the Islamic State, which controls territory in eastern Syria and across the border with Iraq; the Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda, which is strongest in the country’s northwest; and “groups linked to them.”Explicitly not included, according to statements by the Syrian Army and the Turkish Foreign Ministry, are the jihadists: the Islamic State, which controls territory in eastern Syria and across the border with Iraq; the Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda, which is strongest in the country’s northwest; and “groups linked to them.”
How to define groups “linked” to the jihadists will be a thorny issue, along with Turkey’s insistence that the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which backs Mr. Assad, withdraw from Syria.How to define groups “linked” to the jihadists will be a thorny issue, along with Turkey’s insistence that the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which backs Mr. Assad, withdraw from Syria.
Numerous tries by outside powers to broker lasting cease-fires in Syria have failed, including an agreement in September between Russia and the United States to allow humanitarian aid into besieged areas. The deal quickly fell apart. Numerous attempts by outside powers to broker lasting cease-fires in Syria have failed, including an agreement in September between Russia and the United States to allow humanitarian aid into besieged areas. The deal quickly fell apart.
While the new agreement followed the same formula as previous cease-fires, the dynamics on the ground have changed since forces loyal to Mr. Assad took back control of eastern Aleppo, emboldening Moscow and Damascus and leaving the opposition with little leverage in negotiations.While the new agreement followed the same formula as previous cease-fires, the dynamics on the ground have changed since forces loyal to Mr. Assad took back control of eastern Aleppo, emboldening Moscow and Damascus and leaving the opposition with little leverage in negotiations.
The announcement followed days of negotiations that involved Mr. Assad’s government, Russia, Iran and Turkey — but, pointedly, not the United States or the United Nations. President-elect Donald J. Trump has called President Obama’s Syria policies a failure and pushed to end support for Syrian rebels, vowing to make fighting terrorism virtually the entirety of his administration’s Syria policy.The announcement followed days of negotiations that involved Mr. Assad’s government, Russia, Iran and Turkey — but, pointedly, not the United States or the United Nations. President-elect Donald J. Trump has called President Obama’s Syria policies a failure and pushed to end support for Syrian rebels, vowing to make fighting terrorism virtually the entirety of his administration’s Syria policy.
Russia, Mr. Assad’s backer, and Turkey, which supports some of the rebel groups, will guarantee the truce, set to begin at midnight on Thursday, Mr. Putin said. Minutes later, the Syrian military said it would halt operations nationwide starting at midnight.Russia, Mr. Assad’s backer, and Turkey, which supports some of the rebel groups, will guarantee the truce, set to begin at midnight on Thursday, Mr. Putin said. Minutes later, the Syrian military said it would halt operations nationwide starting at midnight.
Three agreements were signed, Mr. Putin said: the cease-fire itself; an agreement detailing how it would be carried out; and a third expressing readiness to begin peace talks for a settlement to the conflict.Three agreements were signed, Mr. Putin said: the cease-fire itself; an agreement detailing how it would be carried out; and a third expressing readiness to begin peace talks for a settlement to the conflict.
Mr. Putin said that Mr. Assad’s government and the opposition would take part in peace talks in Kazakhstan, but he did not give a date. A leaked text of the agreement said the talks would begin a month after the cease-fire went into effect.Mr. Putin said that Mr. Assad’s government and the opposition would take part in peace talks in Kazakhstan, but he did not give a date. A leaked text of the agreement said the talks would begin a month after the cease-fire went into effect.
The Russian defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, said that the truce would include 62,000 opposition fighters across Syria, and that the Russian military had set up a hotline with its Turkish counterpart to allow immediate communication about the truce and whether it was being met.The Russian defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, said that the truce would include 62,000 opposition fighters across Syria, and that the Russian military had set up a hotline with its Turkish counterpart to allow immediate communication about the truce and whether it was being met.
In a brief statement, the Syrian Army said the cease-fire came “after the victories and successes that our armed forces accomplished in more than one place,” an allusion to the recent retaking of Aleppo by government forces and allied militias.In a brief statement, the Syrian Army said the cease-fire came “after the victories and successes that our armed forces accomplished in more than one place,” an allusion to the recent retaking of Aleppo by government forces and allied militias.
Ahmad al-Saoud, a spokesman for a C.I.A.-backed rebel group that is included in the agreement, said in an phone interview that meetings about the cease-fire were continuing in Ankara, the Turkish capital.Ahmad al-Saoud, a spokesman for a C.I.A.-backed rebel group that is included in the agreement, said in an phone interview that meetings about the cease-fire were continuing in Ankara, the Turkish capital.
There were reports on Thursday of new aerial bombings in eastern Ghouta, a suburb of Damascus, but that was before the announcement in Moscow. Fifteen people were killed, including six children, according to a group that monitors the conflict. Whether the Russian government can pressure pro-Assad forces to curb their attacks against rebels will be critical to determining how meaningful the agreement is.There were reports on Thursday of new aerial bombings in eastern Ghouta, a suburb of Damascus, but that was before the announcement in Moscow. Fifteen people were killed, including six children, according to a group that monitors the conflict. Whether the Russian government can pressure pro-Assad forces to curb their attacks against rebels will be critical to determining how meaningful the agreement is.
At least some of the rebels who have signed on to the cease-fire have gotten weapons and financing from the American government, though that support might be drying up as United States policy changes with the transition in Washington.At least some of the rebels who have signed on to the cease-fire have gotten weapons and financing from the American government, though that support might be drying up as United States policy changes with the transition in Washington.
Mr. Assad has called Mr. Trump “a natural ally” in the fight against terrorism, and the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said on Thursday that Mr. Trump’s administration would be welcome to join the peace process after he starts on Jan. 20.Mr. Assad has called Mr. Trump “a natural ally” in the fight against terrorism, and the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said on Thursday that Mr. Trump’s administration would be welcome to join the peace process after he starts on Jan. 20.
“I would hope that, after the Donald Trump administration takes office, it will also be able to join these efforts,” Mr. Lavrov said at the meeting, shown on state-run television.“I would hope that, after the Donald Trump administration takes office, it will also be able to join these efforts,” Mr. Lavrov said at the meeting, shown on state-run television.
The Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, told the Turkish news channel A Haber on Thursday that Turkey would guarantee rebel compliance with the cease-fire agreement, while Russia would guarantee adherence by Mr. Assad’s government. Iran would also help monitor compliance by Mr. Assad’s government and by allied Shiite militias, including Hezbollah, he said. The Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, told the Turkish news channel A Haber on Thursday that Turkey would guarantee rebel compliance with the cease-fire agreement, while Russia would guarantee adherence by Mr. Assad’s government. Iran will also help monitor compliance by Mr. Assad’s government and by allied Shiite militias, including Hezbollah, he said.